{caption}
', - ] - ) - - -def home_us_now() -> str: - """Homepage 'US at a glance' table: outturns beside the LONGBASE baseline.""" - gdp = load("us_real_gdp") - cpi = load("us_cpi") - unemployment = load("us_unemployment_rate") - baseline = longbase_baseline() - - g_now = gdp_growth(gdp)[-1] - c_now = yoy_growth(cpi, 12)[-1] - u_now = latest(unemployment) - - g_base = baseline_next_open(baseline, g_now["period"]) - c_base = baseline_next_open(baseline, c_now["period"]) - u_base = baseline_next_open(baseline, u_now["period"]) - - caption = ( - "FRED outturns (as of " - f"{max(gdp['vintage'], cpi['vintage'], unemployment['vintage'])}) beside " - "the FRB/US LONGBASE conditioning baseline — not a forecast. " - 'Full sources →' - ) - def row(name, unit, out_v, out_p, base_v, base_p): - return ( - '{caption}
', - ] - ) - - -def render_home() -> str: - html = HOME_PAGE.read_text() - html = replace(html, "home-uk-now", home_uk_now()) - html = replace(html, "home-us-now", home_us_now()) - return html - - def render_uk() -> str: """The UK hub. ``economy-topics`` belongs to economy/topics.py, not here.""" html = PAGE.read_text() @@ -608,13 +478,11 @@ def main() -> int: parser = argparse.ArgumentParser() parser.add_argument("--check", action="store_true") args = parser.parse_args() - rendered_home = render_home() rendered_uk = render_uk() rendered_us = render_us() if args.check: stale = [] for path, rendered in ( - (HOME_PAGE, rendered_home), (PAGE, rendered_uk), (US_PAGE, rendered_us), ): @@ -625,7 +493,6 @@ def main() -> int: return 1 print("UK and US Economy pages match committed data") return 0 - HOME_PAGE.write_text(rendered_home) PAGE.write_text(rendered_uk) US_PAGE.write_text(rendered_us) print("updated UK and US Economy pages") diff --git a/index.html b/index.html index 4d08ff8..9619925 100644 --- a/index.html +++ b/index.html @@ -44,14 +44,18 @@one core model · six extensions · uk & us
- The core is the tax-benefit engine behind policyengine.org, running - here in process for the UK and the US: what a reform does to each - household, and what it costs. Six macro models extend it with GDP, - inflation, interest rates, long-run effects and climate. + The tax-benefit engine behind policyengine.org — what a reform + does to each UK or US household, and what it costs — joined to six + macro models: the OBR emulator, the + Bank of England SVAR, the + Fed’s FRB/US, a + US HANK, an + overlapping-generations model and + DEFINE-UK for climate.
A reform goes in; household incomes, revenue and a distribution come out. It does not forecast — that is what the six extensions are for.
-The only model here covering both countries, and the only one that works at household level. Tax and benefit law written as code, run over survey data.
- open the microsimulation → - -one household — exact
-Household arithmetic is exact: 50,000 − 7,486 − 2,994 = 39,520, to the penny. See the case →
-the whole population — an estimate
-Same run, same code — but the household case can be checked line by line and a national total cannot. How far to trust it →
-The microsimulation returns no GDP, inflation or interest rates. Each model below adds some of them — the evidence for it, and the limit of that evidence, on the same line.
-Adds the knock-on effects on the UK economy.
-Tracks the March 2026 EFO to 0.15% GDP MAPE with the anchors held; free-running, 4.48%.
-Adds a UK forecast for the next few quarters.
-Replicates the paper’s GDP decomposition (37.4% vs ~40%), 8pp short on CPI. Against a drifting random walk, no forecast skill survives the 64 tests run.
-Adds how the US economy responds to a shock.
-Matches the Fed’s own pyfrbus inside its two releases’ disagreement (~1×10⁻⁸); no predictive claim.
-Adds who gains and loses, by wealth group.
-Solves Auclert et al. (2021) to four decimals — the headline targets are inputs, not results.
-Adds long-run effects on work, saving and capital.
-+1pp on the basic rate: GDP −£5.0bn (−0.14%), revenue +0.29pp of GDP by 2030. Targets met by construction; no independent outcome benchmark exists.
-Adds UK climate-policy scenarios: emissions, energy, green investment.
-Baseline replicates the manual; scenarios are design-gated and paper-anchored. Deltas only, never levels.
-Inspect all seven models, compare them side by side, or read the evidence for each.
-One score can run several models in a row: score_reform accepts microsim, obr, og and og+microsim.
The microsimulation is the core: it knows every household, and nothing about the economy around them. Each macro model joins it at one named point, in one of two directions — a reform’s cost goes out to a macro model and feedback comes back (score_reform accepts microsim, obr, og, og+microsim), or a macro path comes in and is pushed down onto households as incidence. Nothing connects macro model to macro model.
Every bridge starts or ends at the microsimulation. @@ -297,75 +213,50 @@
united statesNo US macro bridge exists, so a US reform is scored statically.
ONS and FRED outturns beside the archived forecast rounds. boe-svar is the only forecaster here and it is UK-only; the US column shows the path FRB/US starts from, which is not a forecast.
-Pick by the question you have, not by the model you know. Each line is what that model is for, and what its evidence does and does not support.
ONS outturns (as of 2026-08-26) beside archived forecast rounds. Full horizon →
- -FRED outturns (as of 2026-08-26) beside the FRB/US LONGBASE conditioning baseline — not a forecast. Full sources →
- -For scoring a UK reform with its knock-on effects on GDP, not just its cost.
+Tracks the March 2026 EFO to 0.15% GDP MAPE with the anchors held; free-running, 4.48%.
+For reading what has been driving UK GDP and inflation, and what comes next.
+Replicates the paper’s GDP decomposition (37.4% vs ~40%), 8pp short on CPI. Against a drifting random walk, no forecast skill survives the 64 tests run.
+For tracing how the US economy responds to a rate or spending shock.
+Matches the Fed’s own pyfrbus inside its two releases’ disagreement (~1×10⁻⁸); no predictive claim.
+For seeing which US households absorb a shock, by wealth.
+Solves Auclert et al. (2021) to four decimals — the headline targets are inputs, not results.
+For the decades-long effects on work, saving and the capital stock.
++1pp on the basic rate: GDP −£5.0bn (−0.14%), revenue +0.29pp of GDP by 2030. Targets met by construction; no independent outcome benchmark exists.
+For UK climate-policy scenarios: emissions, energy, green investment.
+Baseline replicates the manual; scenarios are design-gated and paper-anchored. Deltas only, never levels.
+Inspect all seven models, compare them side by side, or read the evidence for each.
Connect the public MCP server with no PolicyEngine account or API key, use the shared CLI, or call each Python package directly.