From 26285b7f0bccf6ec9fc93f3b4a4cab70002627d9 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: =?UTF-8?q?Mar=C3=ADa=20Juaristi?= <127882282+juaristi22@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Sat, 5 Sep 2026 07:17:02 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 01/12] Carry the target-fit deferral register onto the #834 composition branch (uk-publication-stack-834) MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit The publication stack's schema-2 target-fit register (#796: the four UC with-children cells and the private-pension 100–150k band, expiring 2026-09-30) and its gate wiring did not reach main. This composition branch ports the end state of the stack's three register commits onto the #834 tree: `target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json` (declared in the country package), `UK_TARGET_FIT_EXCLUSION_REGISTER_RESOURCE`, the lazily loaded default register, the `uk_target_fit_gate` rewrite (in-force entries defer the release fence only; expired, premature, stale and dormant entries are reported and fail where the rot rule says so), the battery binding that resolves the committed register or a loud override and refuses a `gates.json` register name the runtime does not load, the gate's parameter key, the contract's terminal-gate detail fields, and the moved battery and calibration-seam digests. Main's local-candidate branch of the target-fit evaluator is preserved. The stack's seven gate tests and the contract detail pins come with it. Composition branch only: not for merge to main on its own. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 --- .../microcosm/build/uk/country_package.json | 5 + .../src/microcosm/build/uk/gates.json | 3 +- .../uk/target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json | 41 ++++++ .../build/uk_runtime/battery_bindings.py | 33 ++++- .../build/uk_runtime/terminal_gates.py | 129 +++++++++++++++--- .../build/uk_runtime/weighted_integrity.py | 2 + .../tests/test_spec_engine_country_bundles.py | 2 +- .../tests/test_uk_terminal_gates.py | 123 +++++++++++++++++ .../src/microcosm/data/contract.py | 16 ++- .../microcosm-data/tests/test_contract.py | 12 +- 10 files changed, 338 insertions(+), 28 deletions(-) create mode 100644 packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/country_package.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/country_package.json index f5a766850..df57587d6 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/country_package.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/country_package.json @@ -42,6 +42,11 @@ "kind": "legacy_json", "schema_id": "legacy_json" }, + { + "path": "target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json", + "kind": "legacy_json", + "schema_id": "legacy_json" + }, { "path": "efrs_parity_known_gaps.json", "kind": "legacy_json", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/gates.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/gates.json index 4b863bd02..95a118f07 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/gates.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/gates.json @@ -707,7 +707,8 @@ "phase": "terminal", "criticality": "release_blocking", "parameters": { - "max_abs_relative_error": 0.25 + "max_abs_relative_error": 0.25, + "reviewed_exclusions_resource": "target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json" }, "notes": "Every calibration target within twenty-five percent absolute relative error, the certified June acceptance bound." }, diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json new file mode 100644 index 000000000..0eb45db21 --- /dev/null +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json @@ -0,0 +1,41 @@ +{ + "schema_version": 2, + "description": "Reviewed target-fit exclusions for the UK terminal battery (schema 2 per #610). Each entry defers one calibration target whose |relative error| breaches the 25% release bound, with the defect diagnosed, tracked, and owned elsewhere; the receipt records the reasoning, approver, adjudication reference, approval date, and expiry. The gate keeps the target BOUND in calibration (exclusion applies to the release fence only, never the solve), reports dormant entries, FAILS stale ones (targets back inside the bound), and FAILS expired ones until the adjudication is renewed, so this register cannot rot.", + "exclusions": { + "dwp.uc.households_single_with_children@2025": { + "reason": "UC with-children support residual, not a fit defect: initial eligible support runs 4.24m benunits vs 6.76m DWP admin after the #750 pension-wealth split, the #813 re-bind proved this cell's grain honest (family-type cells partition dwp.uc.households exactly), and the 0.55/0.70/0.85 take-up probes proved marginal claimants ~10:1 childless, so no calibration-side lever reaches it. Root cause evidenced by the donor-truth benchmark on #809: the wealth re-draw over-spreads countable capital >16k to a 38.3% household share vs the WAS donor's 28.6%, suppressing eligibility; the fix is the #145 draw-quality workstream. Deferred one month to unblock the first certified cut.", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#796", + "approved_on": "2026-08-30", + "expires_on": "2026-09-30" + }, + "dwp.uc.households_children_1@2025": { + "reason": "Same UC with-children support residual as dwp.uc.households_single_with_children@2025: honest grain after the #813 re-bind, unreachable by take-up (probes 0.55/0.70/0.85), caused by the wealth re-draw over-spread past the 16k countable-capital threshold (spine 38.3% vs WAS donor 28.6%, #809 receipts); owned by #145. Deferred one month to unblock the first certified cut.", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#796", + "approved_on": "2026-08-30", + "expires_on": "2026-09-30" + }, + "dwp.uc.households_children_2@2025": { + "reason": "Same UC with-children support residual as dwp.uc.households_single_with_children@2025: honest grain after the #813 re-bind, unreachable by take-up (probes 0.55/0.70/0.85), caused by the wealth re-draw over-spread past the 16k countable-capital threshold (spine 38.3% vs WAS donor 28.6%, #809 receipts); owned by #145. Deferred one month to unblock the first certified cut.", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#796", + "approved_on": "2026-08-30", + "expires_on": "2026-09-30" + }, + "dwp.uc.households_children_5_or_more@2025": { + "reason": "Same UC with-children support residual as dwp.uc.households_single_with_children@2025: honest grain after the #813 re-bind, unreachable by take-up (probes 0.55/0.70/0.85), caused by the wealth re-draw over-spread past the 16k countable-capital threshold (spine 38.3% vs WAS donor 28.6%, #809 receipts); owned by #145. Deferred one month to unblock the first certified cut.", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#796", + "approved_on": "2026-08-30", + "expires_on": "2026-09-30" + }, + "hmrc/private_pension_income_count_income_band_100_000_to_150_000@2025": { + "reason": "Solver-pressure marginal drift (+25.5% at the v13 seam measurement, 0.5pp over the bound): the unreachable UC with-children cells push weight into this pension-income count band. Expected to relax when the #145 re-draw fix restores the UC gradient; deferred one month alongside the four UC composition cells rather than adjudicated as a standalone defect.", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#796", + "approved_on": "2026-08-30", + "expires_on": "2026-09-30" + } + } +} diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/battery_bindings.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/battery_bindings.py index 5800d53b9..a3ccb8176 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/battery_bindings.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/battery_bindings.py @@ -81,6 +81,7 @@ _household_weights, _missing_fit_weight_evidence_gate, uk_default_degenerate_reviewed_exclusions, + uk_default_target_fit_reviewed_exclusions, uk_degenerate_release_surface_gate, uk_export_surface_gate, uk_target_fit_gate, @@ -94,6 +95,7 @@ UK_INPUT_MASS_EXCLUSION_REGISTER_RESOURCE, UK_INPUT_MASS_REFERENCE_REGISTRY, UK_QRF_TAIL_EXCLUSION_REGISTER_RESOURCE, + UK_TARGET_FIT_EXCLUSION_REGISTER_RESOURCE, UKInputMassParityPolicy, UKQRFTailConcentrationPolicy, UKReviewedExclusion, @@ -1110,6 +1112,21 @@ def _local_metric_by_target_id() -> dict[str, str]: return mapping +def _resolve_target_fit_exclusions( + context: EvidenceContext, +) -> tuple[Mapping[str, UKReviewedExclusion], str]: + """Target-fit deferral exclusions and their content source.""" + + committed = uk_default_target_fit_reviewed_exclusions() + override = context.artifacts.get("reviewed_target_fit_exclusions") + if override is None: + return committed, "committed" + resolved = coerce_reviewed_exclusions(override, label="UK target-fit policy") + if _exclusion_payload(resolved) == _exclusion_payload(committed): + return committed, "committed" + return MappingProxyType(resolved), "override" + + def _evaluate_target_fit( context: EvidenceContext, parameters: Mapping[str, Any] ) -> GateResult: @@ -1119,8 +1136,20 @@ def _evaluate_target_fit( _local_target_error_items(context.artifacts["local_target_diagnostics"]) ) return uk_target_fit_gate(errors, **kwargs) + register = kwargs.pop("reviewed_exclusions_resource", None) + if register != UK_TARGET_FIT_EXCLUSION_REGISTER_RESOURCE: + raise ValueError( + f"uk/gates.json names exclusion register {register!r} but the " + f"runtime loads {UK_TARGET_FIT_EXCLUSION_REGISTER_RESOURCE!r}." + ) + exclusions, _source = _resolve_target_fit_exclusions(context) parity = context.artifacts["parity_evidence"] - return uk_target_fit_gate(parity.target_relative_errors, **kwargs) + return uk_target_fit_gate( + parity.target_relative_errors, + reviewed_exclusions=exclusions, + now=_exclusion_clock(context), + **kwargs, + ) def _target_fit_required_artifacts( @@ -1537,7 +1566,7 @@ def _ledger_compile_parity_required_artifacts( name="target_fit", evaluator=_evaluate_target_fit, parameter_keys=frozenset( - {"max_abs_relative_error", "reviewed_exclusions", "surface"} + {"max_abs_relative_error", "reviewed_exclusions_resource", "surface"} ), artifact_selector=_target_fit_required_artifacts, needs_frame=False, diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/terminal_gates.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/terminal_gates.py index 80b2faec9..3ce29b413 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/terminal_gates.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/terminal_gates.py @@ -32,6 +32,7 @@ from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.diagnostics import uk_weight_summary from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.weighted_integrity import ( UK_DEGENERATE_EXCLUSION_REGISTER_RESOURCE, + UK_TARGET_FIT_EXCLUSION_REGISTER_RESOURCE, UKInputMassParityPolicy, UKInputMassReference, UKQRFTailConcentrationPolicy, @@ -58,6 +59,7 @@ "UKQRFTailConcentrationPolicy", "UKZeroWeightStratumDeclaration", "uk_default_degenerate_reviewed_exclusions", + "uk_default_target_fit_reviewed_exclusions", "uk_degenerate_release_surface_gate", "uk_export_surface_gate", "uk_input_mass_parity_gate", @@ -251,6 +253,17 @@ def uk_default_degenerate_reviewed_exclusions() -> Mapping[str, UKReviewedExclus ) +@functools.cache +def uk_default_target_fit_reviewed_exclusions() -> Mapping[str, UKReviewedExclusion]: + """The committed target-fit deferral register (#796), loaded lazily.""" + + return MappingProxyType( + load_uk_reviewed_exclusion_register( + None, resource=UK_TARGET_FIT_EXCLUSION_REGISTER_RESOURCE + ) + ) + + def _entity_tables(dataset: Any) -> tuple[tuple[str, pd.DataFrame], ...]: if isinstance(dataset, Mapping): raw = tuple((entity, dataset.get(entity)) for entity in _STRUCTURAL_COLUMNS) @@ -721,31 +734,110 @@ def uk_target_fit_gate( target_relative_errors: Mapping[str, float], *, max_abs_relative_error: float = UK_MAX_TARGET_ABS_RELATIVE_ERROR, - reviewed_exclusions: Mapping[str, str] | None = None, + reviewed_exclusions: Mapping[str, UKReviewedExclusion] | None = None, + now: date | None = None, ) -> GateResult: - """Fail a UK artifact with severe shipped-weight target errors.""" + """Fail a UK artifact with severe shipped-weight target errors. + + ``reviewed_exclusions`` are schema-2 approval records (#610): each defers + one named target's breach of the release bound through its approval + window. The exclusion suppresses the release fence only — the target + stays bound in calibration, so the solver keeps pulling toward it. An + out-of-force entry fails the gate with correct-or-renew context, and an + in-force entry whose target is back inside the bound is stale and fails + (matching :func:`microcosm.build.gates.target_fit_gate`'s rot rule), so + the register cannot outlive the defects it defers. + """ maximum = float(max_abs_relative_error) if not math.isfinite(maximum) or maximum < 0.0: raise ValueError("max_abs_relative_error must be finite and non-negative.") - exclusions = _reviewed_reasons(reviewed_exclusions) + evaluated_on = exclusion_evaluation_date(now) + exclusions = coerce_reviewed_exclusions(reviewed_exclusions, label="UK target-fit") errors = {str(name): float(error) for name, error in target_relative_errors.items()} nonfinite = sorted( name for name, error in errors.items() if not math.isfinite(error) ) if nonfinite: raise ValueError(f"UK target relative errors must be finite: {nonfinite}.") - failing = { - name: error - for name, error in errors.items() - if abs(error) > maximum and name not in exclusions - } - worst = sorted(failing, key=lambda name: abs(failing[name]), reverse=True) - failures = [ - f"{UK_CANDIDATE_DATASET_NAME}: {name} relative error " - f"{failing[name]:+.1%} exceeds {maximum:.0%}." - for name in worst[:20] - ] + breaching = {name: error for name, error in errors.items() if abs(error) > maximum} + failing: dict[str, float] = {} + excluded: dict[str, dict[str, object]] = {} + failures: list[str] = [] + for name in sorted(breaching, key=lambda name: abs(breaching[name]), reverse=True): + error = breaching[name] + record = exclusions.get(name) + breach_message = ( + f"{UK_CANDIDATE_DATASET_NAME}: {name} relative error " + f"{error:+.1%} exceeds {maximum:.0%}." + ) + if ( + record is not None + and not record.expired(evaluated_on) + and not record.premature(evaluated_on) + ): + excluded[name] = { + "relative_error": error, + "reason": record.reason, + "approved_by": record.approved_by, + "adjudication": record.adjudication, + "expires_on": record.expires_on, + } + continue + failing[name] = error + if record is not None and record.expired(evaluated_on): + failures.append( + f"{breach_message[:-1]}; its reviewed exclusion expired " + f"{record.expires_on} (approved_by {record.approved_by}, " + f"{record.adjudication}) — renew the adjudication or remove " + "the entry." + ) + elif record is not None: + failures.append( + f"{breach_message[:-1]}; its reviewed exclusion takes force " + f"{record.approved_on} (approved_by {record.approved_by}, " + f"{record.adjudication}) — correct the receipt's approved_on " + "or wait for it." + ) + elif len(failing) <= 20: + failures.append(breach_message) + + expired = sorted( + name for name, record in exclusions.items() if record.expired(evaluated_on) + ) + premature = sorted( + name for name, record in exclusions.items() if record.premature(evaluated_on) + ) + # Stale probing covers in-force entries only: an out-of-force entry gets + # receipt-context failures instead, never "back inside the bound". + stale = sorted( + name + for name in exclusions + if name in errors + and name not in breaching + and name not in expired + and name not in premature + ) + dormant = sorted(name for name in exclusions if name not in errors) + if stale: + failures.append( + "Stale reviewed target-fit exclusions are back inside the bound; " + f"remove them: {stale}." + ) + unreported_expired = [name for name in expired if name not in breaching] + if unreported_expired: + failures.append( + _expired_exclusion_failure( + exclusions, unreported_expired, family="target-fit" + ) + ) + unreported_premature = [name for name in premature if name not in breaching] + if unreported_premature: + failures.append( + _premature_exclusion_failure( + exclusions, unreported_premature, family="target-fit" + ) + ) if not errors: failures.append("UK target-fit evidence is empty.") return GateResult( @@ -756,8 +848,13 @@ def uk_target_fit_gate( "candidate_name": UK_CANDIDATE_DATASET_NAME, "targets_checked": len(errors), "max_abs_relative_error": maximum, - "reviewed_exclusions": exclusions, - "failing_targets": {name: failing[name] for name in worst}, + "reviewed_exclusions": dict(sorted(excluded.items())), + "failing_targets": failing, + "stale_exclusions": stale, + "dormant_exclusions": dormant, + "expired_exclusions": expired, + "premature_exclusions": premature, + "exclusions_evaluated_on": evaluated_on.isoformat(), }, ) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/weighted_integrity.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/weighted_integrity.py index 5a87ed566..94935f61d 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/weighted_integrity.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/weighted_integrity.py @@ -133,6 +133,7 @@ "UK_INPUT_MASS_REFERENCE_EVIDENCE_SHA256", "UK_QRF_TAIL_CONCENTRATION_GATE_NAME", "UK_QRF_TAIL_EXCLUSION_REGISTER_RESOURCE", + "UK_TARGET_FIT_EXCLUSION_REGISTER_RESOURCE", "UKInputMassParityPolicy", "UKInputMassReference", "UKInputMassReferenceDescriptor", @@ -158,6 +159,7 @@ UK_INPUT_MASS_EXCLUSION_REGISTER_RESOURCE = "input_mass_reviewed_exclusions.json" UK_QRF_TAIL_EXCLUSION_REGISTER_RESOURCE = "qrf_tail_reviewed_exclusions.json" UK_DEGENERATE_EXCLUSION_REGISTER_RESOURCE = "degenerate_reviewed_exclusions.json" +UK_TARGET_FIT_EXCLUSION_REGISTER_RESOURCE = "target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json" # Canonical sha256 of {"reference": {"identity": ..., "totals": ...}} for # the weighted input surface emitted from the pinned enhanced-FRS artifact by diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_spec_engine_country_bundles.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_spec_engine_country_bundles.py index 1e791eade..3276c22ca 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_spec_engine_country_bundles.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_spec_engine_country_bundles.py @@ -55,7 +55,7 @@ ), ( "uk", - "cfb76f76cf42b9dedf640dfcb8a86a66ba8757da3b672179ad5754b61a2099fc", + "0accc39d40d8c8106f4c9bc5562ccca50f1212cd2a8cdf72f416978ca12570ff", { "benunit.benunit_id", "household.household_id", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_terminal_gates.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_terminal_gates.py index 7fd960622..1b3dfefcc 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_terminal_gates.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_terminal_gates.py @@ -18,6 +18,7 @@ UKQRFTailConcentrationPolicy, UKZeroWeightStratumDeclaration, uk_default_degenerate_reviewed_exclusions, + uk_default_target_fit_reviewed_exclusions, uk_degenerate_release_surface_gate, uk_export_surface_gate, uk_input_mass_parity_gate, @@ -31,6 +32,7 @@ from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.weighted_integrity import ( UK_INPUT_MASS_REFERENCE_EVIDENCE_SHA256, UKInputMassReferenceDescriptor, + UKReviewedExclusion, ) TEST_MIN_ESS_FRACTION = 0.01 @@ -268,6 +270,127 @@ def test_ported_june_parity_gates_retain_their_named_failures() -> None: assert fit.name == "target_fit" +def _target_fit_exclusion( + *, + approved_on: str = "2026-08-30", + expires_on: str = "2026-09-30", +) -> UKReviewedExclusion: + return UKReviewedExclusion( + reason="Deferred defect tracked elsewhere.", + approved_by="juaristi22", + adjudication="microcosm#796", + approved_on=approved_on, + expires_on=expires_on, + ) + + +def test_target_fit_in_force_exclusion_defers_the_breach() -> None: + fit = uk_target_fit_gate( + {"dwp.uc.households_children_2@2025": -0.354, "ons/population": 0.01}, + reviewed_exclusions={ + "dwp.uc.households_children_2@2025": _target_fit_exclusion() + }, + now=date(2026, 9, 15), + ) + + assert fit.passed + assert fit.details["failing_targets"] == {} + receipt = fit.details["reviewed_exclusions"]["dwp.uc.households_children_2@2025"] + assert receipt["relative_error"] == -0.354 + assert receipt["approved_by"] == "juaristi22" + assert receipt["expires_on"] == "2026-09-30" + assert fit.details["exclusions_evaluated_on"] == "2026-09-15" + + +def test_target_fit_expired_exclusion_fails_with_renewal_context() -> None: + fit = uk_target_fit_gate( + {"dwp.uc.households_children_2@2025": -0.354}, + reviewed_exclusions={ + "dwp.uc.households_children_2@2025": _target_fit_exclusion() + }, + now=date(2026, 10, 1), + ) + + assert not fit.passed + assert fit.details["failing_targets"] == { + "dwp.uc.households_children_2@2025": -0.354 + } + assert fit.details["expired_exclusions"] == ["dwp.uc.households_children_2@2025"] + assert any("expired 2026-09-30" in failure for failure in fit.failures) + assert any("renew the adjudication" in failure for failure in fit.failures) + + +def test_target_fit_premature_exclusion_fails_with_receipt_context() -> None: + fit = uk_target_fit_gate( + {"dwp.uc.households_children_2@2025": -0.354}, + reviewed_exclusions={ + "dwp.uc.households_children_2@2025": _target_fit_exclusion() + }, + now=date(2026, 8, 29), + ) + + assert not fit.passed + assert fit.details["premature_exclusions"] == ["dwp.uc.households_children_2@2025"] + assert any("takes force 2026-08-30" in failure for failure in fit.failures) + + +def test_target_fit_stale_exclusion_back_inside_the_bound_fails() -> None: + fit = uk_target_fit_gate( + {"dwp.uc.households_children_2@2025": -0.10}, + reviewed_exclusions={ + "dwp.uc.households_children_2@2025": _target_fit_exclusion() + }, + now=date(2026, 9, 15), + ) + + assert not fit.passed + assert fit.details["stale_exclusions"] == ["dwp.uc.households_children_2@2025"] + assert any("back inside the bound" in failure for failure in fit.failures) + + +def test_target_fit_dormant_exclusion_is_reported_not_failed() -> None: + fit = uk_target_fit_gate( + {"ons/population": 0.01}, + reviewed_exclusions={ + "dwp.uc.households_children_2@2025": _target_fit_exclusion() + }, + now=date(2026, 9, 15), + ) + + assert fit.passed + assert fit.details["dormant_exclusions"] == ["dwp.uc.households_children_2@2025"] + + +def test_target_fit_out_of_force_exclusion_fails_even_without_a_breach() -> None: + fit = uk_target_fit_gate( + {"ons/population": 0.01}, + reviewed_exclusions={ + "dwp.uc.households_children_2@2025": _target_fit_exclusion() + }, + now=date(2026, 10, 2), + ) + + assert not fit.passed + assert fit.details["expired_exclusions"] == ["dwp.uc.households_children_2@2025"] + + +def test_committed_target_fit_register_carries_the_signed_deferrals() -> None: + register = uk_default_target_fit_reviewed_exclusions() + + assert set(register) == { + "dwp.uc.households_single_with_children@2025", + "dwp.uc.households_children_1@2025", + "dwp.uc.households_children_2@2025", + "dwp.uc.households_children_5_or_more@2025", + "hmrc/private_pension_income_count_income_band_100_000_to_150_000@2025", + } + for record in register.values(): + assert record.approved_by == "juaristi22" + assert record.adjudication == "microcosm#796" + assert record.approved_on == "2026-08-30" + assert record.expires_on == "2026-09-30" + + def test_ported_june_parity_gates_reject_empty_evidence() -> None: export = uk_export_surface_gate((), ()) surface = uk_target_surface_gate((), ()) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-data/src/microcosm/data/contract.py b/packages/microcosm-data/src/microcosm/data/contract.py index 92da74b4b..e928a141b 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-data/src/microcosm/data/contract.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-data/src/microcosm/data/contract.py @@ -306,6 +306,12 @@ "targets_checked", "max_abs_relative_error", "failing_targets", + "reviewed_exclusions", + "stale_exclusions", + "dormant_exclusions", + "expired_exclusions", + "premature_exclusions", + "exclusions_evaluated_on", } ), "aggregate_vs_admin": frozenset({"anchors_checked"}), @@ -377,13 +383,13 @@ # fingerprint derives from the manifest digest. Editing the spec moves all # three here in the same reviewed change. _UK_GATE_BATTERY_POLICY_SHA256 = ( - "0f271dd91e25ec43cc24d39c4a5e11e3b54ff883d5fa2f691bf82b0229eca301" + "76afdd6e14bb4fc3d7e03fcceac8c2498d235fbbc7b9e996968ddda607992c15" ) _UK_GATE_BATTERY_GATES_MANIFEST_SHA256 = ( - "1c47e74e91d7684aa91f6b4ec92f55365b119f4325eb4cfd0628c50e81a99b6a" + "f7460ed01621432d42c900013fe6edcf040cf825e90bc3640f2b507efdccda32" ) _UK_GATE_BATTERY_SPEC_FINGERPRINT = ( - "80e73c97e48bad99cc03dcde5bc0b71a738db3c6f8c5c76b2be6d83e86c5381b" + "5f17aaeffdbbca96a7db46878ed65ce6229ffb7fe74480a3f0284395866ef90e" ) #: Spec entry id -> the legacy gate name whose observable detail checks #: apply unchanged (the battery re-keys the report by entry id; the gate @@ -710,10 +716,10 @@ }, "calibration_seam": { "gates_manifest_sha256": ( - "7bc1fab5aa0c035b664684f93195c7f18cb6f48a5ff0e29fbd557bda979ba83b" + "cb0d7ce17c0cd3cf70bd432d4ba85efce3fa837ebf3caba5f5cf0b5545c5dc61" ), "policy_sha256": ( - "59a5e70053626439a848fd77c58064bf64c62914829667e62ef66a7408dd40f3" + "290b1ad240bf4f6412dcaa87c77283dad79d88c817b10b2f402736378fd3d63d" ), }, "release_cut": { diff --git a/packages/microcosm-data/tests/test_contract.py b/packages/microcosm-data/tests/test_contract.py index a597721f7..39946bfaa 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-data/tests/test_contract.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-data/tests/test_contract.py @@ -137,13 +137,13 @@ def _trusted_terminal_gate_signing_key(monkeypatch) -> None: UK_GATE_BATTERY_PRODUCER = "microcosm.build.gate_battery" UK_GATE_BATTERY_SIGNING_KEY_ENV = "MICROCOSM_UK_TERMINAL_GATE_SIGNING_KEY" UK_GATE_BATTERY_POLICY_SHA256 = ( - "0f271dd91e25ec43cc24d39c4a5e11e3b54ff883d5fa2f691bf82b0229eca301" + "76afdd6e14bb4fc3d7e03fcceac8c2498d235fbbc7b9e996968ddda607992c15" ) UK_GATE_BATTERY_GATES_MANIFEST_SHA256 = ( - "1c47e74e91d7684aa91f6b4ec92f55365b119f4325eb4cfd0628c50e81a99b6a" + "f7460ed01621432d42c900013fe6edcf040cf825e90bc3640f2b507efdccda32" ) UK_GATE_BATTERY_SPEC_FINGERPRINT = ( - "80e73c97e48bad99cc03dcde5bc0b71a738db3c6f8c5c76b2be6d83e86c5381b" + "5f17aaeffdbbca96a7db46878ed65ce6229ffb7fe74480a3f0284395866ef90e" ) UK_GATE_BATTERY_DEGENERATE_EVIDENCE_SHA256 = ( "6f0243bcda09dad26945376230c44ec3cf55d4e417c3a25e29bae8c59bc1a69d" @@ -888,6 +888,12 @@ def _terminal_gate_details(name: str) -> dict: "targets_checked": TARGET_COUNT, "max_abs_relative_error": 0.25, "failing_targets": {}, + "reviewed_exclusions": {}, + "stale_exclusions": [], + "dormant_exclusions": [], + "expired_exclusions": [], + "premature_exclusions": [], + "exclusions_evaluated_on": "2026-08-30", } if name == "input_mass_parity": return { From e25ac8fc0e60dfb8bcc1630ee07d5697be572033 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: =?UTF-8?q?Mar=C3=ADa=20Juaristi?= <127882282+juaristi22@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Sat, 5 Sep 2026 07:45:11 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 02/12] Require the exclusion clock artifact for the national target-fit gate (uk-publication-stack-834) The ported binding evaluates the target-fit register against the run clock, so the gate's required artifacts must name exclusions_evaluated_on as the stack's registry entry did; without it the first composed run failed closed with a KeyError instead of deferring the signed cells. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 --- .../src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/battery_bindings.py | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/battery_bindings.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/battery_bindings.py index a3ccb8176..0adc15aaa 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/battery_bindings.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/battery_bindings.py @@ -1157,7 +1157,7 @@ def _target_fit_required_artifacts( ) -> frozenset[str]: if parameters.get("surface") == "local_candidate": return frozenset({"local_target_diagnostics"}) - return frozenset({"parity_evidence"}) + return frozenset({"parity_evidence", "exclusions_evaluated_on"}) def _evaluate_input_mass_parity( From 8b617cbbd4167b18c51062bafe682e96d19fab33 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: =?UTF-8?q?Mar=C3=ADa=20Juaristi?= <127882282+juaristi22@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Sat, 5 Sep 2026 08:03:09 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 03/12] Supply the exclusion clock to the calibration seam's terminal battery (uk-publication-stack-834) The ported target-fit gate evaluates the deferral register against the run clock; the seam's battery artifacts carried no clock, so the composed run reported the gate as evidence-absent. The seam now passes today's date, as the rowwise candidate build passes its start date. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 --- .../src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/calibration_run.py | 4 ++++ 1 file changed, 4 insertions(+) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/calibration_run.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/calibration_run.py index f30bf970f..7898ddc59 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/calibration_run.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/calibration_run.py @@ -623,6 +623,10 @@ def _run_calibration_gate_battery( } ), "aggregate_admin": admin_totals, + # The target-fit deferral register is evaluated against the run + # clock (schema-2 approval windows); the seam supplies today's date + # exactly as the rowwise candidate build supplies its start date. + "exclusions_evaluated_on": datetime.now(UTC).date(), } battery = GateBatteryRun( manifest, From 37e1487b43dd85cdbdbe30508fe3ddbf48217b8f Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: =?UTF-8?q?Mar=C3=ADa=20Juaristi?= <127882282+juaristi22@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Sat, 5 Sep 2026 15:01:14 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 04/12] Sign the OBR CGT deferral on the target-fit register (uk-publication-stack-834, #875) MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit obr.capital_gains_tax@2025 breaches the release bound by +44.2% because the Chronicle re-pin bound HMRC's 2024-25 outturn — the forestalling year ahead of the October 2024 rate rise — at the 2025 period, where 2025-26 rates apply to it. The facts stay bound as published; the release fence defers the miss to 2026-10-05 under microcosm#875, which owns the declared 2024-25 → 2025 translation. The committed-register test carries the sixth entry. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 --- .../build/uk/target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json | 7 +++++++ .../microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_terminal_gates.py | 10 +++++++++- 2 files changed, 16 insertions(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json index 0eb45db21..139ef470a 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json @@ -36,6 +36,13 @@ "adjudication": "microcosm#796", "approved_on": "2026-08-30", "expires_on": "2026-09-30" + }, + "obr.capital_gains_tax@2025": { + "reason": "Vintage conflict, not a fit defect: the Chronicle re-pin (microcosm#874) put HMRC's 2024-25 CGT outturn on the feed (£127.3bn of chargeable gains, 584k taxpayers, against £69.9bn / 403k in 2023-24 — the forestalling year ahead of the 30 October 2024 rate rise) and the doctrine binds it at face value at the 2025 period; the frame fits both HMRC rows within 0.3% and 2025-26 rates on those gains give £31.4bn of liability (24.7% effective) against OBR's £21.8bn FY2025-26 receipts and HMRC's realised 19.0% on the same gains (+44.2% at the composed calibration; −25% with the 2023-24 gains). The facts stay bound as published; the deliverable is a declared 2024-25 → 2025 translation of the gains total under the WS-C reconciliation layer (#875: the index ruling, applying uprating_index in the compile step, the taxpayer count flat at 584k, the cash-lag mapping for self-assessed OBR lines). While in force the calibrated 2025-26 base carries ~40% more CGT liability than OBR expects.", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#875", + "approved_on": "2026-09-05", + "expires_on": "2026-10-05" } } } diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_terminal_gates.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_terminal_gates.py index 1b3dfefcc..d676fc0c4 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_terminal_gates.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_terminal_gates.py @@ -383,9 +383,17 @@ def test_committed_target_fit_register_carries_the_signed_deferrals() -> None: "dwp.uc.households_children_2@2025", "dwp.uc.households_children_5_or_more@2025", "hmrc/private_pension_income_count_income_band_100_000_to_150_000@2025", + "obr.capital_gains_tax@2025", } - for record in register.values(): + for name, record in register.items(): assert record.approved_by == "juaristi22" + if name == "obr.capital_gains_tax@2025": + # #834 composition: the 2024-25 forestalling-year gains bound at + # the 2025 period (microcosm#875 owns the translation). + assert record.adjudication == "microcosm#875" + assert record.approved_on == "2026-09-05" + assert record.expires_on == "2026-10-05" + continue assert record.adjudication == "microcosm#796" assert record.approved_on == "2026-08-30" assert record.expires_on == "2026-09-30" From 0f529ac81eaa0ce22d437cd05dfeca9e90f83351 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: =?UTF-8?q?Mar=C3=ADa=20Juaristi?= <127882282+juaristi22@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Mon, 7 Sep 2026 11:03:25 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 05/12] Integrate SPI corrections on the UK publication baseline --- changelog.d/840-spi-income-coherence.fixed.md | 1 + experiments/840-spi-income-coherence.md | 222 + experiments/879-publication-spi-comparison.md | 258 + .../receipts/uk-spi-income-coherence.json | 7137 +++++++++++++++++ .../spec_engine/schema/sources.schema.json | 38 + .../uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json | 26 +- .../src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json | 28 +- .../src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml | 23 + .../microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_income.py | 141 +- .../microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_spine.py | 27 + .../tests/test_spec_engine_country_bundles.py | 2 +- .../tests/test_uk_spi_income.py | 349 +- .../parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json | 26 +- .../fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json | 2 +- 14 files changed, 8257 insertions(+), 23 deletions(-) create mode 100644 changelog.d/840-spi-income-coherence.fixed.md create mode 100644 experiments/840-spi-income-coherence.md create mode 100644 experiments/879-publication-spi-comparison.md create mode 100644 experiments/receipts/uk-spi-income-coherence.json diff --git a/changelog.d/840-spi-income-coherence.fixed.md b/changelog.d/840-spi-income-coherence.fixed.md new file mode 100644 index 000000000..06b93fd62 --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/840-spi-income-coherence.fixed.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +Preserve observed FRS inputs for UK recipients under 16, rebase indexed SPI incomes including other investment income to the build period, and condition the FRS-only fill on pension receipt. Reject missing declared engine indices and record matched publication-baseline rebuild results and unresolved calibration failures. diff --git a/experiments/840-spi-income-coherence.md b/experiments/840-spi-income-coherence.md new file mode 100644 index 000000000..f3564b0c7 --- /dev/null +++ b/experiments/840-spi-income-coherence.md @@ -0,0 +1,222 @@ +# SPI recipient age, income year and pension receipt + +> Historical experiment, 6 September 2026. These results use the +> `bc11803f915fe72afd724515a27a3863035f4efc` baseline, PolicyEngine-UK 2.92.1 +> and the older Chronicle feed. The [original report at source head +> `194111af`](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/blob/194111af32b265b226dcbefe33cc735f362461dc/experiments/840-spi-income-coherence.md) +> and the paired JSON identify that experiment. Its numeric results remain +> unchanged below; they do not measure the later publication baseline. +> +> Source correction, 7 September 2026: [SPI Annex A, physical page 12](https://doc.ukdataservice.ac.uk/doc/9422/mrdoc/pdf/9422_put_2223_full_documentation.pdf#page=12) +> labels the first age band “Under 25”; it does not establish a survey minimum +> of 16. The treatment's boundary of 16 follows its constructed donor-age +> support. It preserves under-16 FRS inputs, while qualifying FRS children +> aged 16–19 remain exposed to imputation. +> +> The [publication comparison](879-publication-spi-comparison.md) uses +> PolicyEngine-UK 2.94.0, the newer Chronicle feed and a reviewed OTHERINV +> mapping to the model's other-investment-income index. OTHERINV remained +> nominal in this historical treatment. The historical paired JSON is unchanged. + +The rebuilt SPI support assigned donor incomes to under-16 records, mixed +2022–23 SPI flows with 2024 FRS flows, and imputed a second pension receipt status +without conditioning on the SPI pension leaf. This historical treatment reduced +national calibration loss by 36.6% and brought both failing HMRC pension-income +bands inside 25%. Aggregate income tax and state pension worsened, however, and +the single-parent UC shortfall remains large. This is an incremental improvement, +not a resolution of the full calibration tension in #840, #796 and #736. + +This experiment starts from `bc11803f915fe72afd724515a27a3863035f4efc` +(`uk-spine-rebuild-842-850`). The separate CGT experiment, #878, starts from the +same commit; neither treatment contains the other. PR #877's size-selection +work is not added to either treatment. + +## Plan and implementation + +1. Reproduce the unchanged full national spine and the reported v19 calibration. +2. Apply the recipient guard at 16, matching the constructed SPI donor-age + support. Whole-household support clones include under-16s. Preserve their + observed FRS inputs in both SPI stages and their base-channel dividends + during the SPI dividend redraw. This is a modeling boundary; the original + attribution of a 16 survey minimum to Annex A was incorrect. +3. Rebase stage-1 monetary draws from the donor's 2022 period to the spine's 2024 + period before conditioning the FRS fill on those incomes. Declare each column's + corresponding PolicyEngine variable and record its index and realized factor. +4. Add a binary pension-receipt predictor to the FRS-only fill: observed + `state_pension_reported > 0` in training, and drawn + `hmrc_spi_state_pension_income > 0` for recipients. This bridges receipt status; + it does not equate FRS regular pension with the full taxable SPI pension amount. +5. Rebuild every downstream stage and calibrate to the identical national surface. + Report all targets and gate failures, including regressions. + +The stage-1 forest consumes its legacy full query shape and discards under-age +draws before assignment. This preserves the adult draw pool and the subsequent +base dividend random stream before the explicit income rebasing. Stage 2 queries +recipients aged 16 and older. Base dividends for those recipients receive the same rebasing as SPI dividends. +Tax-free savings interest drawn from the build-year FRS is added *after* taxable +SPI interest is rebased, so it is not uprated twice. Employment and HMRC income +identities are reconstructed from the changed leaves. + +The authoritative YAML, JSON compatibility projection, operation schema, stage +evidence, release-input coverage and graph fixtures describe the same treatment. + +## Income-year assumptions + +The pinned PolicyEngine-UK 2.92.1 indices give these 2022-to-2024 factors: + +| SPI flows | Model index | Factor | +|---|---|---:| +| Employment components | OBR average earnings | 1.116368 | +| Self-employment | OBR per-capita mixed income | 1.021134 | +| Private pension | OBR private-pension index | 1.102502 | +| Dividends, property and miscellaneous income | OBR per-capita GDP | 1.092377 | +| Taxable savings interest | ONS household interest income | 2.269155 | + +The large interest factor reflects the selected model index; it is not fitted +to this experiment's calibration residual. Other investment income, charitable +deductions and the broader SPI taxable-benefit/pension leaves are explicitly +held nominal where no model-variable mapping is chosen. Those choices are +recorded, not silently treated as complete monetary alignment. In particular, +this does not settle the taxable-interest/ONS scope mismatch in #866 or all +period-selection questions in #862. + +## Comparison contract + +Both runs use PolicyEngine-UK 2.92.1, PolicyEngine-Core 3.31.0, Python 3.13.14, +the locked environment, the full FRS spine and 10,000 SPI support households. +Calibration uses year 2025, 364 targets, 1,500 Adam epochs, learning rate 0.02, +`family_equal`, seed 0, free total mass and maximum weight ratio 10. Targets, +measure exclusions, target-fit exclusions, tolerances and take-up are unchanged. + +Chronicle commit `1cab80987a462e00055f259cc56dc6b311c030bf` supplies the frozen +facts, SHA-256 `226358e73e7c449e71a3f6dc91a72e8e3941e0f14265943d81c990edb21c2a6c`. +The control reproduces v19's loss (0.025315), income tax (£290.991bn) and +pension-band errors (+26.8%, +33.0%). The newer Chronicle feed was rejected by +this branch's series-selection contract and is not mixed into the comparison. + +Source inputs were resolved from UK-data revision +`25af520a6651b8812fef56964a42a79a3f9f515a` and checked against the existing pins. +No licensed rows are committed. The CGT URL now redirects to different workbook +bytes; the exact pinned 2025 workbook was recovered from the +[National Archives snapshot](https://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/ukgwa/20250730164651id_/https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6878ac62760bf6cedaf5bd93/Table_3_2025_Size_of_gain_by_income.ods), +SHA-256 `8e75c00bab949348a7238fea6d995f626c85e5d02813b46606dd7fea85e9d0c3`. +Its vintage is unchanged. + +## Source quality + +Pre-calibration employment income on SPI under-16s falls from £66.176bn to zero. +These are synthetic-support totals, including downstream copies and their prior +household weights, not an estimate of actual UK children's earnings. The fix +retains observed under-16 inputs rather than imposing zero income on every child. +Adult SPI pension-receipt disagreement between the two source leaves falls from +3.797% of weighted adult support to less than 0.01%. + +The UC screen below is `max(0, uc_maximum_amount - uc_income_reduction) > 0`, +evaluated at 2025. It is an income screen before take-up, not a full eligibility +adjudication. Family composition uses the engine's UC child/qualifying-young-person +definition and `is_married`; the separate DWP child-count concept remains open. + +| SPI family | Control screened share | Treatment screened share | +|---|---:|---:| +| Single with children | 27.17% | 49.40% | +| Couple with children | 9.42% | 21.32% | + +The CGT algorithm and source are unchanged in this branch, but its downstream +assignments can change when incomes and family support change. For example, +pre-calibration £5m+ gains change from £24.603bn to £22.182bn. That movement is +not evidence that this branch implements #878's tail correction. + +## National calibration results + +The [paired receipt](receipts/uk-spi-income-coherence.json) includes all 364 +before/after target estimates, source and diagnostics hashes, implementation +file hashes, source-quality aggregates and terminal failures. Experimental runs +used the parent commit plus the recorded implementation files; the parent code +pin alone does not identify the uncommitted treatment used in those runs. + +| Metric | Control | SPI treatment | +|---|---:|---:| +| Final loss | 0.0253150 | 0.0160433 | +| Targets within 10% | 90.934% | 92.033% | +| Effective sample size | 5,722.6 | 5,687.6 | +| Top 1% share of weight | 18.901% | 19.050% | +| Income tax | £290.991bn | £289.180bn | +| Income-tax error | −12.203% | −12.750% | +| Total state pension | £134.387bn | £128.912bn | +| Total state-pension error | −8.071% | −11.816% | +| HMRC pension amount, £20–30k income band | +26.795% | +19.890% | +| HMRC pension amount, £50–70k income band | +32.999% | +16.643% | +| ONS savings-interest error | −16.876% | +0.013% | +| UC single-with-children count | 1.469691m | 1.484661m | +| UC single-with-children error | −33.611% | −32.935% | +| OBR CGT error | −24.975% | −24.739% | + +Loss improves by 36.6%, with a substantial improvement in interest matching and +the two pension-band errors. Under `family_equal`, the single ONS interest target +accounts for about 95.7% of the net loss reduction. This concentration matters +when interpreting the headline objective. The aggregate tax and pension regressions mean +that better overall loss does not establish a complete solution to their joint +fit with UC. The single-parent UC count rises by only about 15,000 despite the +larger increase in pre-calibration income-screen support. + +The solve completes, but the terminal battery still blocks release export. New +target-fit failures are the couples-without-children UC payment cell +£27,600–28,800 (−100%, no realized model support), self-employment income in the +£50–70k band (+34.604%), and council-tax band A (+28.884%). The private-pension +count exclusion for £100–150k is now stale. Existing exclusions still include +other substantial residuals, visible in the full receipt. None were added, +extended or removed to obtain an apparently passing run. No calibrated release +artifact was exported or certified. + +## Tested alternatives + +The rank-preserving proposal in #840 was implemented and rebuilt before being +removed. Within demographic and equal-weight cells, it permuted intact SPI +adult vectors onto FRS income ranks. It increased UC-support overlap but did +not improve the national objective: + +| Variant | Final loss | Income tax | +|---|---:|---:| +| Child guard plus rank matching | 0.0262020 | £287.008bn | +| Same, with pension-receipt bridge | 0.0260768 | £287.546bn | +| Child guard and pension bridge, without rank matching or rebasing | 0.0256650 | £285.701bn | +| Final treatment, with rebasing and base-child dividend guard | 0.0160433 | £289.180bn | + +These comparisons motivate the chosen treatment but are not a complete factorial +decomposition: the last step also adds the base-child dividend guard. The final +branch contains no rank permutation. The generic weighted-QRF bootstrap issue +in #481 and SPI's incomplete representation of non-taxpayers remain separate. + +## Validation and reproduction + +The focused SPI, manifest, source-stage, release-coverage and graph-parity suites +pass: 158 tests passed and 3 optional input/engine cases skipped. New regressions +cover child-input preservation, the shared dividend random stream, pension-receipt +predictors, income rebasing and avoiding double uprating of tax-free interest. +Repository Ruff lint, formatting of changed Python files, and test-inventory +checks pass. Repository-wide formatting still reports 121 inherited files, +also present on the unchanged control. A broader coverage-regeneration +test has a pre-existing golden mismatch: the committed evidence records +PolicyEngine-UK 2.89.0 while the locked runtime is 2.92.1. The same failure was +reproduced on the untouched control; its historical golden was not rewritten. +The remaining schema, reemission, field-usage, coverage and UK graph checks pass: +60 passed and 1 skipped, with that known failing case explicitly deselected. + +Use separate control and treatment directories with the same licensed input +root, running `uv sync --all-packages --locked --extra uk` and +`tools/build_uk_frs_spine.py` with the pinned FRS, SPI, HMRC, CGT, WAS, LCFS and +ETB files. The exact build command is also documented in #878's +[reproduction section](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/blob/uk-cgt-spine-quality-725/experiments/uk-cgt-open-tail-quality.md#reproduction). +Set `POPULACE_FIT_N_JOBS=2`, `POPULACE_FIT_PREDICT_WORKERS=2` and the numerical +library thread limits to 2, as in the recorded runs. + +Build the Chronicle UK consumer artifact at the stated Chronicle commit and +pass it, its facts/manifest hashes and the spine hash to +`tools/calibrate_uk_national_dataset.py` with `--epochs 1500`, +`--target-weight-rule family_equal`, a `dev-` release ID and a local developer +signing key. Preserve diagnostics and gates even when the terminal command +exits nonzero. This is national-only evidence at the declared seeds; it does +not establish local-area accuracy or robustness across every seed. + +Refs #840, #866, #862, #481, #736, #796, #665. The remaining CGT questions in +#725 and #875 are described separately in #878. diff --git a/experiments/879-publication-spi-comparison.md b/experiments/879-publication-spi-comparison.md new file mode 100644 index 000000000..a8e87bba1 --- /dev/null +++ b/experiments/879-publication-spi-comparison.md @@ -0,0 +1,258 @@ +# SPI comparison on the UK publication baseline + +This experiment ports the reviewed SPI changes in [#879](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/pull/879) +onto the UK publication stack identified in [Max's 7 September handoff](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/665#issuecomment-5562794129). +The treatment preserves observed FRS inputs below age 16, rebases selected SPI +income flows to the build period, and conditions the FRS-only imputation on a +pension-receipt proxy. Source review also identified an omitted OTHERINV index +and corrected the interpretation of the age boundary. + +**Status: the combined native-validation verdict and genuine matched-build +results are pending.** This report defines the comparison before those results +are available. The old experiment's loss reduction does not measure this port. +No candidate is certified by this report. + +## Publication and runtime provenance + +| Item | Pin or status | +|---|---| +| Control publication commit | `d43b4203c6ebe10e062cb3ef3034e66731ea055d` on `uk-publication-stack-834` | +| Earlier #874 head | `8de6bf44d7bd4a5b6ce5c8c24add4501c0944824` | +| Original SPI delta | `bc11803f915fe72afd724515a27a3863035f4efc` → `194111af32b265b226dcbefe33cc735f362461dc` | +| Treatment identification | Publication control plus the reviewed SPI delta, the source-review corrections below, and its recorded implementation hashes; final commit and genuine-run hashes pending | +| PolicyEngine-UK / Core | `2.94.0` / `3.31.0` | +| NumPy / pandas / scikit-learn | `2.4.6` / `3.0.3` / `1.8.0` | +| Both environments' `uv.lock` SHA-256 | `ca9305fcebb5854d8d8369eb10fd134c918da7a79ab90f21c932c946b35165e5` | +| SPI source period / FRS build period / calibration year | `2022` / `2024` / `2025` | +| Genuine control/treatment H5 hashes | Pending | + +The port applies the declared-base SPI delta selectively. The publication stack +is not a descendant of the old SPI base, so inheriting the entire old branch +would change more than the SPI treatment. The earlier local candidate +`0feec085888790ea6387a0085878dc681f2e8445` described in the handoff was not +available in this checkout; it is not this treatment's execution receipt. + +The selected publication tree includes #874's Chronicle loader/target repairs, +childcare inputs and England bus targets, plus the later publication deferral +register and gate-clock wiring. [#874's committed receipts](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/blob/d43b4203c6ebe10e062cb3ef3034e66731ea055d/experiments/834-childcare-tfc-receipts.md) +identify the earlier composition evidence. Those results do not certify the +later publication tip. The [historical SPI report](840-spi-income-coherence.md) +retains the separate `bc11803f` / UK 2.92.1 experiment and its unchanged paired JSON. + +## Reviewed source behavior + +### Recipient age + +[SPI Annex A, physical page 12](https://doc.ukdataservice.ac.uk/doc/9422/mrdoc/pdf/9422_put_2223_full_documentation.pdf#page=12) +labels its first published age band “Under 25.” The pipeline's existing +`_SPI_AGE_RANGES` constructs ages from 16 upward. The treatment therefore uses +16 as an explicit recipient boundary to avoid applying that constructed support +to younger people. It does not interpret 16 as verified SPI survey eligibility. +A 15-year-old retains the observed FRS inputs protected by this stage; a +16-year-old remains eligible for its SPI draws. + +The [FRS 2024–25 methodology](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/family-resources-survey-financial-year-2024-to-2025/family-resources-survey-background-information-and-methodology) +includes qualifying 16–19-year-olds in its dependent-child definition. This +change preserves under-16 inputs, not every FRS child's inputs. The treatment +leaves the imputation of qualifying older children as an explicit limitation. + +Stage 1 consumes the full existing query shape and discards under-16 draws +before assignment. That preserves the random stream shared with the subsequent +base-channel dividend redraw. Both SPI stages preserve the protected under-16 +inputs, and the base dividend redraw preserves under-16 FRS dividends. + +### Income periods and mappings + +The source-year label `2022` represents SPI 2022–23. The FRS loader stores the +2024 period for its [April 2024–March 2025 collection](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/family-resources-survey-financial-year-2024-to-2025/family-resources-survey-financial-year-2024-to-2025). +The treatment applies the selected model index at `2024-01-01` divided by that +index at `2022-01-01`, before conditioning stage 2 on the resulting incomes. +This annual convention does not harmonize individual interview months or +establish exact fiscal/calendar alignment. The later 2024-to-2025 projection +is a separate model step. + +The installed [PolicyEngine-UK 2.94.0 distribution](https://pypi.org/project/policyengine-uk/2.94.0/) +resolves the following indices. These are modeling growth assumptions, not +HMRC-prescribed growth rates or factors fitted to this experiment's residuals. + +| SPI flows | Installed model index | 2022-to-2024 factor | +|---|---|---:| +| Employment components | OBR average earnings | 1.116368286445 | +| Self-employment | OBR per-capita mixed income | 1.021134421134 | +| Private pension | OBR private-pension index | 1.102502017756 | +| Dividends, property, miscellaneous income and OTHERINV | OBR per-capita GDP | 1.092376803703 | +| Taxable savings interest | ONS household interest income | 2.269155046634 | + +The old treatment held OTHERINV nominal. [Annex A, physical page 19, note 1](https://doc.ukdataservice.ac.uk/doc/9422/mrdoc/pdf/9422_put_2223_full_documentation.pdf#page=19) +and the installed `variables/input/other_investment_income.py` describe the +corresponding residual investment-income concept. The existing stage-1 +crosswalk already maps OTHERINV directly to `other_investment_income`; the +publication treatment now uses that variable's declared OBR per-capita GDP +index. GDP remains a proxy for this taxable component's growth. + +Six SPI flows remain explicitly nominal because this review did not establish +a same-scope indexed mapping: + +| Flow | Retained limitation | +|---|---| +| GIFTAID and GIFTINV | The corresponding charity inputs have no declared uprating index. | +| INCPBEN | The SPI field is taxable-only. The broader model's reported incapacity benefit has a CPI index, but its scope does not establish the required taxable-income mapping. | +| OSSBEN | The field aggregates other taxable social-security payments. | +| UBISJA | The field combines unemployment benefit, income support and Jobseeker's Allowance. | +| SRP | The SPI pension concept includes widow's pensions and certain retirement lump sums. | + +[HMRC's PAYE manual](https://www.gov.uk/hmrc-internal-manuals/paye-manual/paye77001) +distinguishes taxable and exempt incapacity-benefit categories. [SPI Annex A, +physical pages 17](https://doc.ukdataservice.ac.uk/doc/9422/mrdoc/pdf/9422_put_2223_full_documentation.pdf#page=17) +and [19](https://doc.ukdataservice.ac.uk/doc/9422/mrdoc/pdf/9422_put_2223_full_documentation.pdf#page=19) +define the pension field and qualify the treatment of identifiable lump sums. +These scope differences remain visible in the treatment's uprating receipt. + +Only an explicit null mapping can produce a `held_nominal` receipt. A declared +mapped variable with a missing, blank or unsupported index, a missing parameter, +or a non-finite/non-positive index value fails rather than silently becoming +nominal. Tests exercise that contract with the actual installed UK engine and +with deliberately incomplete index definitions. + +SPI taxable interest is rebased before the build-year FRS tax-free interest is +added once. The treatment also rebases base-channel dividends for recipients +aged 16 and older and reconstructs employment and HMRC accounting aggregates +from the changed leaves. The treatment does not resolve the remaining +interest/ONS scope question in #866 or all period-selection questions in #862. + +### Pension-receipt conditioning + +The FRS-only forest receives `state_pension_reported > 0` for its training rows +and `hmrc_spi_state_pension_income > 0` for SPI recipients. Given the wider SPI +pension scope, this is a predictive proxy rather than an exact receipt or +amount identity. The forest can still draw a different receipt status. Reduced +discordance alone would not establish entitlement accuracy or consistent +pension amounts. The comparison reports the two pension-income bands and +aggregate pension/tax separately. + +The reviewed SPI documentation has SHA-256 +`6b39771e6122391c4f0b262dcfb33ec6454264a55638da0f59677696029d2897`; +the source review visually inspected physical pages 12, 17 and 19. + +## Matched genuine-build contract + +The control and treatment use the same raw FRS inputs, input sample, raw design +weights, source-selection algorithms, generation seeds, build period and +solver settings. Only the reviewed SPI code/specification differs. Both runs +rebuild every downstream stage. Changed SPI incomes can alter downstream +predictors, CGT support and cloning; final row counts and generated prior +weights must therefore be measured, not assumed identical. + +The licensed source set is FRS 2024–25, SPI 2022–23, WAS round 8, LCFS 2023–24 +and ETB 1977–2024, together with the pinned HMRC income and CGT workbooks. +The SPI donor `put2223uk.tab` has SHA-256 +`5ef829461060c91a2a47be59ad541d9b519fc3976d66ca80d4920f711bb96f66`. +The exact source-file hashes and build arguments belong in each genuine run's +receipts; no licensed person or household rows are committed. The separate +[#878 CGT treatment](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/pull/878) remains +outside this experiment. + +| Calibration setting | Shared value | +|---|---| +| Geography and scale | Full national spine; national targets only | +| Year | 2025 | +| Optimizer | Adam, 1,500 epochs, learning rate 0.02 | +| Target weighting | `family_equal` | +| Solver seed | 0 | +| Maximum weight ratio | 10 | +| Gate evaluation date | Record each run's actual date; use the same day for the pair | +| Target, measure-exclusion, gate, take-up and CGT-source definitions | Preserve the publication control's definitions | + +Both runs use the canonical Chronicle consumer artifact produced from source +`6fb700e`, with 128,717 facts and schema +`policyengine_ledger.consumer_artifact.v2`: + +- Facts SHA-256: `6ae49d7d7ab297df25a0b9bfe2d6776827c672d284fbb360957fe8337089549f`. +- Manifest SHA-256: `dcda51d6496aea67f768a284e7955c7520e7c8b91e2bed3569f247567b7153f0`. + +The publication loader verifies both hashes. Its runtime compiles the national +reference declarations and then applies the reviewed measure exclusions. +The prior #874 receipts reported 415 active references and 371 matrix targets; +these are historical counts to check, not substitutes for compiling this +publication tip. Before interpreting the genuine results, record and compare +the actual target names, target values, binding provenance, excluded measures +and loss weights from both runs. A changed target surface cannot establish an +SPI improvement. + +## Protected publication decisions + +Ten of the 11 files carrying the publication stack's additional changes remain +byte-identical: the UK country package, gates and target-fit exclusion register; +the battery bindings, calibration runner, terminal gates and weighted integrity +implementation; the terminal-gate tests; and the data contract and its test. +The remaining file, `test_spec_engine_country_bundles.py`, changes only its +expected UK specification identity from +`0accc39d40d8c8106f4c9bc5562ccca50f1212cd2a8cdf72f416978ca12570ff` to +`e0dd9175920f6d1368a74957367182dc4d6357ffbdb1f728457ead91dd16dd9b`. + +Native validation exposed this inherited identity pin after the reviewed SPI +specification changed. The unchanged publication control passed its original +expectation; the shared compiler produced the new treatment identity. The +repair updates that exact expected-hash literal and preserves every assertion +and publication-added test. Reversing the one replacement reproduces the +publication file's recorded bytes. This is a documented correction to the +overnight isolated harness's claim that all 11 files could remain byte-identical. +Source-owned coverage and graph regeneration update their derived evidence; +the publication's gate, register and take-up decisions remain unchanged. + +The [existing childcare receipts](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/blob/d43b4203c6ebe10e062cb3ef3034e66731ea055d/experiments/834-childcare-tfc-receipts.md) +retain the following choices for both runs: + +| Decision | Status retained in this comparison | +|---|---| +| A22/A23 TFC and targeted-childcare rates | Hold at 0.88 and 0.597 pending adjudication. | +| Extended and universal-childcare rates | Retain the landed 0.6054 and 0.4539 values. | +| UC with-children target-fit deferrals | Retain existing reasons and expiry of 30 September 2026. | +| Private-pension £100–150k count deferral | Retain its existing entry during the matched comparison; assess staleness from the resulting receipts. | +| CGT target-fit deferral | Retain #875's existing timing/translation reason and expiry of 5 October 2026. | + +The historical expected-count childcare fit pushed TFC toward 0.997 and targeted +childcare to 1.0. Its expected TFC spending and child-count ratios were 0.804 and +1.138; targeted childcare reached 0.852 of its target at the fitted vector. +Those ceiling results explain the recorded holds, not a decision to adopt the +ceiling rates. The committed fit receipt pin is +`c56ca568ef446f07f773ea03253bc2f9d878aeea6bc781ee38ed268d1fedde96`. + +No new binding, exclusion, expiry extension, take-up change or gate suppression +is part of the SPI comparison. A release gate becoming stale remains a reported +failure until its existing decision is separately reviewed. + +## Validation and results + +Combined native validation is pending. The required checks include normal UK +package initialization, source/schema/coverage contracts, full invented +country/graph execution against the live legacy oracle, and actual UK-engine +uprating contracts. Invented parity fixtures establish executable contracts; +they do not establish population fit. Any inherited failure must be reported +alongside its same-runtime control reproduction. + +Genuine control/treatment builds and national calibration results are pending. +The completed comparison will report the following outcomes without dropping +regressions: + +| Outcome | Control | SPI treatment | +|---|---|---| +| Person, benefit-unit and household counts; generated prior weight totals | Pending | Pending | +| Final national loss and contributions by target/family | Pending | Pending | +| Aggregate income tax and state pension | Pending | Pending | +| HMRC pension amounts in the £20–30k and £50–70k income bands | Pending | Pending | +| ONS savings-interest fit | Pending | Pending | +| UC with-children support and fit | Pending | Pending | +| CGT level/fit and downstream support changes | Pending | Pending | +| Weight concentration and effective sample size | Pending | Pending | +| Every terminal-gate verdict and stale/expired decision | Pending | Pending | + +The shared quality schema/exporter described in the handoff is not present on +the selected publication tree. Its existing `tools/emit_lineage_dashboard.py` +exports US imputation lineage. Exporting a genuine UK candidate requires the +actual shared schema/adapter and the completed run's grain, decisions and +incomplete checks. The invented UK dashboard prototype is not genuine dataset +evidence. Release publication remains a separate decision. + +Refs #665, #736, #796, #840, #866 and #862; independent CGT work remains in +#878 and #875. diff --git a/experiments/receipts/uk-spi-income-coherence.json b/experiments/receipts/uk-spi-income-coherence.json new file mode 100644 index 000000000..1b2e655b3 --- /dev/null +++ b/experiments/receipts/uk-spi-income-coherence.json @@ -0,0 +1,7137 @@ +{ + "schema_version": 1, + "base_commit": "bc11803f915fe72afd724515a27a3863035f4efc", + "candidate_run": "spi-r6", + "calibration_year": 2025, + "same_target_names_values_options_and_measure_exclusions": true, + "target_count": 364, + "source_fact_sha256": "226358e73e7c449e71a3f6dc91a72e8e3941e0f14265943d81c990edb21c2a6c", + "implementation_files": { + "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/spec_engine/schema/sources.schema.json": "ce9e82abecf75eb797fd71488400925bf6374630e720b9ef2bad1f229c3efd0e", + "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json": "f8189ed0cfb124000a003dce04cfda21a561f52232d28b16f8b5e9cf6a8f0724", + "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json": "b0431557411237de40dc124301508c46070ddf6385d384a4675594943c01e14a", + "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml": "144251b48e4bf09641805eb73fe10725f3a6f6ba5a60ca65b005b8788a959921", + "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_income.py": "5c519ee60d77a744317894d9b3547f6ca8f8a15aa8ba8247234d249b23dd7a1e", + "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_spine.py": "b12391ea832381185ce163a3385e7d256cdd17cef7a8f88703fb10d8c65268c1", + "packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_spi_income.py": "49d9cd351b3b7ac7091819e85da3ce95b885072c8f2c22f1e0e008360d657d93", + "packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json": "df22b7c4de68e30cc3db38c641f08537d54ab0c7d44d26b07e956061a4b3e8fc", + "packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json": "0b417aecc26e09b776c440b96d5dde4ec7fde608bf56c592dfc7b60c2da75c97" + }, + "runs": { + "control-r2": { + "initial_loss": 0.3534831404685974, + "final_loss": 0.025315032004856006, + "fraction_within_10pct": 0.9093406593406593, + "effective_sample_size": 5722.598117567803, + "realized_max_weight_ratio": 10.0, + "top_1pct_weight_share": 0.18901236816649572, + "n_records": 52846, + "n_nonzero": 52846, + "spine_sha256": "77fbfabc83844320f64b43f8bb1e4169d3a443f042759eb7c69f7cb16c088853", + "diagnostics_sha256": "0c3d7ff921903531b5835da67cfd46deb8a9e4831e9ab5854e2592fdd380f7b0", + "stage_build_sidecar_sha256": "9bf962c63598c3179a6018aea19be812b1bb3ce48e57c60bd54d4356c45347f8", + "terminal_gate_status": { + "uk_aggregate_admin": "passed", + "uk_calibration_reference_coverage": "passed", + "uk_target_fit": "failed", + "uk_weight_ess": "passed", + "uk_weight_ratio": "passed", + "uk_zero_weight_strata": "passed" + }, + "terminal_gate_failures": { + "uk_target_fit": [ + "microcosm_uk_2024: hmrc/state_pension_income_band_50_000_to_70_000@2025 relative error +33.0% exceeds 25%.", + "microcosm_uk_2024: hmrc/state_pension_income_band_20_000_to_30_000@2025 relative error +26.8% exceeds 25%.", + "Stale reviewed target-fit exclusions are back inside the bound; remove them: ['dwp.uc.households_children_1@2025', 'hmrc/private_pension_income_count_income_band_100_000_to_150_000@2025']." + ] + }, + "cgt_source_bands": [ + { + "achieved_gains": 473011336.78227705, + "achieved_people": 61258.750506462944, + "gain_lower_bound": 0, + "published_gains": 462000000.0, + "published_people": 63000.0 + }, + { + "achieved_gains": 1687451663.807592, + "achieved_people": 98756.70255544517, + "gain_lower_bound": 10000, + "published_gains": 1669000000.0, + "published_people": 101000.0 + }, + { + "achieved_gains": 2583299758.6619225, + "achieved_people": 74707.69878265302, + "gain_lower_bound": 25000, + "published_gains": 2645000000.0, + "published_people": 74000.0 + }, + { + "achieved_gains": 3481866898.1009207, + "achieved_people": 53506.45732801481, + "gain_lower_bound": 50000, + "published_gains": 3731000000.0, + "published_people": 53000.0 + }, + { + "achieved_gains": 5633890747.275561, + "achieved_people": 36199.771964339525, + "gain_lower_bound": 100000, + "published_gains": 5649000000.0, + "published_people": 37000.0 + }, + { + "achieved_gains": 5046611985.0329, + "achieved_people": 13904.886013661458, + "gain_lower_bound": 250000, + "published_gains": 4766000000.0, + "published_people": 14000.0 + }, + { + "achieved_gains": 6324722259.924821, + "achieved_people": 9916.888280212483, + "gain_lower_bound": 500000, + "published_gains": 5705000000.0, + "published_people": 8000.0 + }, + { + "achieved_gains": 5540185058.574723, + "achieved_people": 4000.6728100633527, + "gain_lower_bound": 1000000, + "published_gains": 6390000000.0, + "published_people": 5000.0 + }, + { + "achieved_gains": 8142655513.684279, + "achieved_people": 2878.75, + "gain_lower_bound": 2000000, + "published_gains": 9189000000.0, + "published_people": 3000.0 + }, + { + "achieved_gains": 24603177951.892296, + "achieved_people": 1934.255663430421, + "gain_lower_bound": 5000000, + "published_gains": 22714000000.0, + "published_people": 2000.0 + } + ] + }, + "spi-r6": { + "initial_loss": 0.33991187810897827, + "final_loss": 0.01604327422864996, + "fraction_within_10pct": 0.9203296703296703, + "effective_sample_size": 5687.5609874605725, + "realized_max_weight_ratio": 10.0, + "top_1pct_weight_share": 0.1905010373044496, + "n_records": 52846, + "n_nonzero": 52846, + "spine_sha256": "5093e08c3813cf428ccdcb1bfdb6e688432f2793671dddcd9f1cba47aa5b7e35", + "diagnostics_sha256": "ec0942dec9124e569ffab8bc4b1603c20dd7df1bbe8a8859528ba848b0ef2692", + "stage_build_sidecar_sha256": "a3656acd51d9967d10fd81100facbbc7e94b76e3a226d387974cf20ba0941423", + "terminal_gate_status": { + "uk_aggregate_admin": "passed", + "uk_calibration_reference_coverage": "passed", + "uk_target_fit": "failed", + "uk_weight_ess": "passed", + "uk_weight_ratio": "passed", + "uk_zero_weight_strata": "passed" + }, + "terminal_gate_failures": { + "uk_target_fit": [ + "microcosm_uk_2024: dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_27_600_to_28_800@2025 relative error -100.0% exceeds 25%.", + "microcosm_uk_2024: hmrc/self_employment_income_income_band_50_000_to_70_000@2025 relative error +34.6% exceeds 25%.", + "microcosm_uk_2024: voa.council_tax_stock.band_a@2025 relative error +28.9% exceeds 25%.", + "Stale reviewed target-fit exclusions are back inside the bound; remove them: ['hmrc/private_pension_income_count_income_band_100_000_to_150_000@2025']." + ] + }, + "cgt_source_bands": [ + { + "achieved_gains": 492030045.77188396, + "achieved_people": 61716.26528400545, + "gain_lower_bound": 0, + "published_gains": 462000000.0, + "published_people": 63000.0 + }, + { + "achieved_gains": 1655366280.7861395, + "achieved_people": 99394.33220162481, + "gain_lower_bound": 10000, + "published_gains": 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a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/spec_engine/schema/sources.schema.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/spec_engine/schema/sources.schema.json @@ -3039,6 +3039,25 @@ }, "training_artifact_role": { "type": "string" + }, + "recipient_minimum_age": { + "type": "integer", + "minimum": 0 + }, + "rebase_income_to_build_period": { + "type": "boolean" + }, + "donor_income_period": { + "type": "integer" + }, + "income_uprating_variables": { + "type": "object", + "additionalProperties": { + "type": [ + "string", + "null" + ] + } } }, "required": [ @@ -6707,6 +6726,25 @@ }, "seed": { "type": "integer" + }, + "recipient_minimum_age": { + "type": "integer", + "minimum": 0 + }, + "rebase_income_to_build_period": { + "type": "boolean" + }, + "donor_income_period": { + "type": "integer" + }, + "income_uprating_variables": { + "type": "object", + "additionalProperties": { + "type": [ + "string", + "null" + ] + } } } }, diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json index e8a531c25..328752985 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json @@ -473,7 +473,7 @@ "capital_gains" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "05ccf7a780a48af62817a7d4922c4229b82a470951075f90811d40ab5d5cdb18", + "source_manifest_sha256": "e07d148799b5025179038c710634c539a25d979c6b8bdd377eda3f4a6543ad22", "source_vintages": { "source": "HMRC Capital Gains Tax statistics, July 2025, Table 2.1a", "survey": "HMRC Capital Gains Tax statistics Table 2.1a and Advani-Summers capital-gains incidence" @@ -496,7 +496,7 @@ "capital_gains" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": 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and Benefits 1977-2024 and NHS age-gender public table" @@ -545,7 +545,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "E5 source-stage transform preserves household rows and typed household weights; total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "05ccf7a780a48af62817a7d4922c4229b82a470951075f90811d40ab5d5cdb18", + "source_manifest_sha256": "e07d148799b5025179038c710634c539a25d979c6b8bdd377eda3f4a6543ad22", "source_vintages": { "source": "UK Data Service SN 8856 Effects of Taxes and Benefits household tab and cited VAT anchor resource.", "survey": "Effects of Taxes and Benefits 1977-2024" @@ -576,7 +576,7 @@ "superseded_by": { "reason": "The FRS spine build executes hmrc_cgt_gains_spine, which applies the same HMRC Table 3 amounts redraw directly in source_stages.json before calibration.", "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "05ccf7a780a48af62817a7d4922c4229b82a470951075f90811d40ab5d5cdb18", + "source_manifest_sha256": "e07d148799b5025179038c710634c539a25d979c6b8bdd377eda3f4a6543ad22", "stage": "hmrc_cgt_gains_spine" } }, @@ -596,7 +596,7 @@ "capital_gains" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "05ccf7a780a48af62817a7d4922c4229b82a470951075f90811d40ab5d5cdb18", + "source_manifest_sha256": "e07d148799b5025179038c710634c539a25d979c6b8bdd377eda3f4a6543ad22", "source_vintages": { "hmrc_surface": "2023-24", "mapped_build_period": "2024" @@ -610,7 +610,7 @@ "base_candidate_tier": "frs", "calibration_permitted": false, "canonical_source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "canonical_source_manifest_sha256": "05ccf7a780a48af62817a7d4922c4229b82a470951075f90811d40ab5d5cdb18", + "canonical_source_manifest_sha256": "e07d148799b5025179038c710634c539a25d979c6b8bdd377eda3f4a6543ad22", "effective_mass_requirements": { "charitable_investment_gifts": { "mass_share_denominator": "all_person_effective_mass", @@ -693,7 +693,7 @@ "superseded_by": { "reason": 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unit rates, and WAS round-8 bridge donor.", "survey": "Living Costs and Food Survey 2023-24" @@ -748,7 +748,7 @@ "property_wealth" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "05ccf7a780a48af62817a7d4922c4229b82a470951075f90811d40ab5d5cdb18", + "source_manifest_sha256": "e07d148799b5025179038c710634c539a25d979c6b8bdd377eda3f4a6543ad22", "source_vintages": { "source": "MHCLG dwellings and ONS UK House Price Index December 2025 regional average prices.", "survey": "Public regional property reference" @@ -772,7 +772,7 @@ "employee_pension_contributions" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "05ccf7a780a48af62817a7d4922c4229b82a470951075f90811d40ab5d5cdb18", + "source_manifest_sha256": "e07d148799b5025179038c710634c539a25d979c6b8bdd377eda3f4a6543ad22", "source_vintages": { "source": "HMRC, Salary sacrifice reform for pension contributions effective from 6 April 2029", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25 salary-sacrifice respondents and HMRC salary-sacrifice reform analysis" @@ -794,7 +794,7 @@ "student_loan_plan" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "05ccf7a780a48af62817a7d4922c4229b82a470951075f90811d40ab5d5cdb18", + "source_manifest_sha256": "e07d148799b5025179038c710634c539a25d979c6b8bdd377eda3f4a6543ad22", "source_vintages": { "source": "Explore Education Statistics Table 6a, Higher education total", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25 and Student Loans Company borrower forecasts for England" @@ -829,7 +829,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "E5 source-stage transform preserves household rows and typed household weights; total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "05ccf7a780a48af62817a7d4922c4229b82a470951075f90811d40ab5d5cdb18", + "source_manifest_sha256": "e07d148799b5025179038c710634c539a25d979c6b8bdd377eda3f4a6543ad22", "source_vintages": { "source": "Office for National Statistics Wealth and Assets Survey, UK Data Service SN 7215, DOI 10.5255/UKDA-SN-7215-20; local licensed 2006-22 household tab.", "survey": "Wealth and Assets Survey round 8" diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json index 52b06e46a..ee244422a 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json @@ -2060,7 +2060,30 @@ "charitable_investment_gifts": 0.0 }, "n_estimators": 100, - "seed": 42 + "seed": 42, + "donor_income_period": 2022, + "income_uprating_variables": { + "charitable_investment_gifts": null, + "dividend_income": "dividend_income", + "gift_aid": null, + "hmrc_spi_employment_benefits": "employment_income_before_lsr", + "hmrc_spi_employment_expenses": "employment_income_before_lsr", + "hmrc_spi_incapacity_benefit_income": null, + "hmrc_spi_miscellaneous_employment_income": "employment_income_before_lsr", + "hmrc_spi_other_income": "miscellaneous_income", + "hmrc_spi_other_social_security_income": null, + "hmrc_spi_pay": "employment_income_before_lsr", + "hmrc_spi_state_pension_income": null, + "hmrc_spi_taxable_termination_pay": "employment_income_before_lsr", + "hmrc_spi_unemployment_benefit_income": null, + "other_investment_income": "other_investment_income", + "private_pension_income": "private_pension_income", + "property_income": "property_income", + "savings_interest_income": "savings_interest_income", + "self_employment_income": "self_employment_income" + }, + "rebase_income_to_build_period": true, + "recipient_minimum_age": 16 }, { "kind": "fit_weighted_qrf_stage2", @@ -2075,7 +2098,8 @@ "savings_interest_income", "dividend_income", "private_pension_income", - "property_income" + "property_income", + "state_pension_receipt" ], "reviewed_absent_predictors": { "other_investment_income": "This remains a stage-1 SPI draw and an official HMRC fact component, but it is not an FRS-only stage-2 predictor: the incumbent UK data build's frs_only.py defines exactly six income predictors and the certified Microcosm UK base candidate has no other_investment_income column." diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml index bd70eb0ab..568b94cef 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml @@ -1510,6 +1510,28 @@ stages: seed: 42 - kind: fit_weighted_qrf_stage1 training_artifact_role: qrf_donor + recipient_minimum_age: 16 + rebase_income_to_build_period: true + donor_income_period: 2022 + income_uprating_variables: + self_employment_income: self_employment_income + savings_interest_income: savings_interest_income + dividend_income: dividend_income + private_pension_income: private_pension_income + property_income: property_income + other_investment_income: other_investment_income + gift_aid: null + charitable_investment_gifts: null + hmrc_spi_pay: employment_income_before_lsr + hmrc_spi_employment_benefits: employment_income_before_lsr + hmrc_spi_employment_expenses: employment_income_before_lsr + hmrc_spi_incapacity_benefit_income: null + hmrc_spi_other_social_security_income: null + hmrc_spi_taxable_termination_pay: employment_income_before_lsr + hmrc_spi_unemployment_benefit_income: null + hmrc_spi_miscellaneous_employment_income: employment_income_before_lsr + hmrc_spi_other_income: miscellaneous_income + hmrc_spi_state_pension_income: null predictors: - age - gender @@ -1642,6 +1664,7 @@ stages: - dividend_income - private_pension_income - property_income + - state_pension_receipt reviewed_absent_predictors: other_investment_income: 'This remains a stage-1 SPI draw and an official HMRC fact component, but it is not an FRS-only stage-2 predictor: the incumbent UK data build''s frs_only.py defines exactly six income predictors and the certified Microcosm UK base candidate has no other_investment_income column.' categorical_predictors: diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_income.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_income.py index 3f228f74c..db372fb0c 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_income.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_income.py @@ -61,6 +61,37 @@ SPI_DONOR_FIT_NAME = "uk_spi_2022_23_income" FRS_ONLY_FIT_NAME = "uk_frs_only_spi_fill" DEFAULT_SPI_DONOR_SAMPLE_SIZE = 100_000 +# Recipient guard matching the existing constructed SPI age support below. +# SN 9422 Annex A labels the youngest band "Under 25"; it does not establish +# a survey age minimum. Keep observed FRS inputs below the constructed lower +# bound instead of extrapolating this coarsened donor age to younger children. +# FRS dependent-child status can extend to ages 16-19; this guard is an age +# support boundary, not a crosswalk to that household-composition definition. +SPI_MINIMUM_RECIPIENT_AGE = 16 +SPI_DONOR_INCOME_YEAR = 2022 +# Use the pinned engine's variable-specific indices. None explicitly retains +# nominal amounts where no same-scope indexed mapping has been reviewed; +# broader indexed benefit inputs do not establish a taxable SPI crosswalk. +SPI_INCOME_UPRATING_VARIABLES = { + "self_employment_income": "self_employment_income", + "savings_interest_income": "savings_interest_income", + "dividend_income": "dividend_income", + "private_pension_income": "private_pension_income", + "property_income": "property_income", + "other_investment_income": "other_investment_income", + "gift_aid": None, + "charitable_investment_gifts": None, + "hmrc_spi_pay": "employment_income_before_lsr", + "hmrc_spi_employment_benefits": "employment_income_before_lsr", + "hmrc_spi_employment_expenses": "employment_income_before_lsr", + "hmrc_spi_incapacity_benefit_income": None, + "hmrc_spi_other_social_security_income": None, + "hmrc_spi_taxable_termination_pay": "employment_income_before_lsr", + "hmrc_spi_unemployment_benefit_income": None, + "hmrc_spi_miscellaneous_employment_income": "employment_income_before_lsr", + "hmrc_spi_other_income": "miscellaneous_income", + "hmrc_spi_state_pension_income": None, +} SPI_DONOR_SHA256 = "5ef829461060c91a2a47be59ad541d9b519fc3976d66ca80d4920f711bb96f66" SPI_DONOR_SIZE_BYTES = 141_323_762 _SPI_DONOR_VERIFICATION_TOKEN = object() @@ -237,6 +268,8 @@ class UKSPIIncomeImputationResult: stage2_training_rows: int spi_prediction_rows: int reviewed_absent_stage2_outputs: dict[str, str] + pension_receipt_bridge: Mapping[str, object] | None = None + income_uprating: Mapping[str, object] | None = None @dataclass(frozen=True) @@ -338,6 +371,8 @@ def impute_uk_spi_income_support( donor_table: pd.DataFrame | None = None, initialize_frs_channel_columns: Mapping[str, float] | None = None, stage1_base_redraw_columns: Sequence[str] = (), + condition_on_state_pension_receipt: bool = False, + rebase_income_to_build_period: bool = False, ) -> UKSPIIncomeImputationResult: """Run strict SPI-income and FRS-only QRFs on rebuilt positive support.""" @@ -411,9 +446,14 @@ def impute_uk_spi_income_support( or not household.loc[spi_household, "household_weight"].gt(0.0).all() ): raise ValueError("SPI support rows must all carry positive effective mass.") - spi_people = person[person_channel] == SPI_SYNTHETIC_SUPPORT_CHANNEL - if not spi_people.any(): + spi_channel_people = person[person_channel] == SPI_SYNTHETIC_SUPPORT_CHANNEL + if not spi_channel_people.any(): raise ValueError("SPI support has no person rows to impute.") + _require_columns(person, ("age",), label="SPI recipient age domain") + _require_finite_numeric(person[["age"]], label="SPI recipient ages") + spi_people = spi_channel_people & person.age.ge(SPI_MINIMUM_RECIPIENT_AGE) + if not spi_people.any(): + raise ValueError("SPI support has no recipients in the donor age domain.") base_people = person[person_channel] == BASE_FRS_SUPPORT_CHANNEL if not base_people.any(): raise ValueError("SPI support has no FRS base rows.") @@ -435,7 +475,7 @@ def impute_uk_spi_income_support( person = _seed_frs_hmrc_auxiliary_leaves(person, spi_people=spi_people) recipient_predictors = _person_predictors( - person.loc[spi_people], + person.loc[spi_channel_people], household, income_predictors=(), ) @@ -462,6 +502,21 @@ def impute_uk_spi_income_support( expected=SPI_INCOME_QRF_OUTPUT_COLUMNS, label="SPI stage-1", ) + # Hold the existing RNG stream fixed: the fitted forest is also used + # later for the base-channel dividend redraw. Consume the legacy query + # shape, then discard under-age draws before any assignment. This keeps + # adult stage-1 draw pool and the base redraw stream identical. + adult_positions = ( + person.loc[spi_channel_people, "age"].ge(SPI_MINIMUM_RECIPIENT_AGE).to_numpy() + ) + stage1_draws = stage1_draws.iloc[np.flatnonzero(adult_positions)].copy() + income_uprating = None + uprating_factors = dict.fromkeys(SPI_INCOME_QRF_OUTPUT_COLUMNS, 1.0) + if rebase_income_to_build_period: + uprating_factors, income_uprating = _spi_income_uprating_factors( + int(build_period) + ) + stage1_draws = stage1_draws.mul(pd.Series(uprating_factors), axis="columns") nonnegative_stage1 = [ column for column in SPI_INCOME_QRF_OUTPUT_COLUMNS @@ -508,6 +563,24 @@ def impute_uk_spi_income_support( household, income_predictors=income_predictors, ) + pension_bridge = None + if condition_on_state_pension_receipt: + # A receipt indicator is a predictive bridge, not an assertion that + # FRS regular pension and the full taxable SPI SRP amount coincide. + # Without it, stage 2 can attach a second, unrelated pension regime + # to a stage-1 vector whose HMRC pension leaf is already determined. + train_receipt = person.loc[training_people, "state_pension_reported"].gt(0) + target_receipt = person.loc[ + spi_people, SPI_HMRC_STATE_PENSION_INCOME_COLUMN + ].gt(0) + train_predictors["state_pension_receipt"] = train_receipt.astype(float) + target_predictors["state_pension_receipt"] = target_receipt.astype(float) + pension_bridge = { + "training_source": "state_pension_reported > 0", + "recipient_source": "hmrc_spi_state_pension_income > 0", + "training_positive_rows": int(train_receipt.sum()), + "recipient_positive_rows": int(target_receipt.sum()), + } encoded_train, encoded_target = _encode_predictor_pair( train_predictors, target_predictors, @@ -566,7 +639,14 @@ def impute_uk_spi_income_support( ): raise ValueError("SPI stage-1 base redraw produced negative outputs.") for column in base_redraw_columns: - person.loc[base_people, column] = base_draws[column].to_numpy() + # This redraw also uses adult SPI donors. Preserve observed FRS + # child dividends, while consuming the same base query stream. + base_adults = ( + person.loc[base_people, "age"].ge(SPI_MINIMUM_RECIPIENT_AGE).to_numpy() + ) + person.loc[ + base_people & person.age.ge(SPI_MINIMUM_RECIPIENT_AGE), column + ] = base_draws[column].to_numpy()[base_adults] * uprating_factors[column] tax_free = person.loc[spi_people, "tax_free_savings_income"].to_numpy( dtype=np.float64 @@ -599,9 +679,62 @@ def impute_uk_spi_income_support( stage2_training_rows=int(training_people.sum()), spi_prediction_rows=int(spi_people.sum()), reviewed_absent_stage2_outputs=reviewed_absent, + pension_receipt_bridge=pension_bridge, + income_uprating=income_uprating, ) +@cache +def _spi_income_uprating_factors(year: int): + """Rebase SPI money flows before conditioning on build-year FRS incomes.""" + from policyengine_uk import CountryTaxBenefitSystem + + if year < SPI_DONOR_INCOME_YEAR: + raise ValueError("SPI income cannot be rebased before its source year.") + if set(SPI_INCOME_UPRATING_VARIABLES) != set(SPI_INCOME_QRF_OUTPUT_COLUMNS): + raise ValueError("Every SPI income output needs an explicit uprating rule.") + system = CountryTaxBenefitSystem() + source = system.parameters(f"{SPI_DONOR_INCOME_YEAR}-01-01") + target = system.parameters(f"{year}-01-01") + factors = {} + columns = {} + for column, variable_name in SPI_INCOME_UPRATING_VARIABLES.items(): + path = None + factor = 1.0 + if variable_name is not None: + variable = system.variables.get(variable_name) + if variable is None: + raise ValueError( + f"Missing SPI uprating variable {variable_name!r} for {column}." + ) + path = getattr(variable, "uprating", None) + if not isinstance(path, str) or not path: + raise ValueError(f"Unsupported SPI uprating index for {column}.") + before, after = source, target + try: + for part in path.split("."): + before, after = getattr(before, part), getattr(after, part) + except AttributeError as error: + raise ValueError( + f"Missing SPI uprating parameter {path!r} for {column}." + ) from error + if not np.isfinite([before, after]).all() or before <= 0 or after <= 0: + raise ValueError(f"SPI uprating index must be positive for {column}.") + factor = float(after / before) + factors[column] = factor + columns[column] = { + "variable": variable_name, + "index": path, + "factor": factor, + "basis": "model_index" if path else "held_nominal", + } + return factors, { + "from_period": SPI_DONOR_INCOME_YEAR, + "to_period": year, + "columns": columns, + } + + def _initialize_frs_channel_columns( person: pd.DataFrame, *, diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_spine.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_spine.py index 257ff78f1..fb3ee169e 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_spine.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_spine.py @@ -43,6 +43,9 @@ ) from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.spi_income import ( DEFAULT_SPI_DONOR_SAMPLE_SIZE, + SPI_DONOR_INCOME_YEAR, + SPI_INCOME_UPRATING_VARIABLES, + SPI_MINIMUM_RECIPIENT_AGE, SPI_SOURCE_TI_FORMULA, SPI_STAGE2_REVIEWED_ABSENT_OUTPUTS, UKSPIIncomeImputationResult, @@ -174,6 +177,7 @@ "gender", "region", *FRS_ONLY_SPI_FILL_INCOME_PREDICTOR_COLUMNS, + "state_pension_receipt", ) SPI_SPINE_STAGE2_OUTPUT_COLUMNS = tuple( column @@ -233,6 +237,9 @@ def evidence(self) -> dict[str, object]: "reviewed_absent_stage2_outputs": dict( self.imputation.reviewed_absent_stage2_outputs ), + "recipient_minimum_age": SPI_MINIMUM_RECIPIENT_AGE, + "pension_receipt_bridge": self.imputation.pension_receipt_bridge, + "income_uprating": self.imputation.income_uprating, "targets": { "count": len(self.source_targets.targets), "classification": dict(self.replay_report.summary), @@ -529,6 +536,15 @@ def __call__(self, frame: Frame) -> Frame: "initialize_frs_channel_columns" ], stage1_base_redraw_columns=redraw_op.parameters["columns"], + rebase_income_to_build_period=stage1_op.parameters[ + "rebase_income_to_build_period" + ], + condition_on_state_pension_receipt=( + "state_pension_receipt" + in _operation(self.stage, "fit_weighted_qrf_stage2").parameters[ + "predictors" + ] + ), ) result_frame = uk_national_frame( person=imputation.person, @@ -857,6 +873,17 @@ def _assert_income_stage_parameters( raise ValueError("SPI income donor bootstrap must refit at uniform weight.") if tuple(stage1.parameters.get("predictors", ())) != SPI_SPINE_STAGE1_PREDICTORS: raise ValueError("SPI income stage-1 predictors drifted.") + if stage1.parameters.get("recipient_minimum_age") != SPI_MINIMUM_RECIPIENT_AGE: + raise ValueError("SPI income recipient age domain drifted.") + if stage1.parameters.get("rebase_income_to_build_period") is not True: + raise ValueError("SPI income build-year rebasing drifted.") + if stage1.parameters.get("donor_income_period") != SPI_DONOR_INCOME_YEAR: + raise ValueError("SPI donor income period drifted.") + if ( + stage1.parameters.get("income_uprating_variables") + != SPI_INCOME_UPRATING_VARIABLES + ): + raise ValueError("SPI income uprating-variable map drifted.") if tuple(stage1.parameters.get("outputs", ())) != SPI_INCOME_QRF_OUTPUT_COLUMNS: raise ValueError("SPI income stage-1 outputs drifted.") initialization = dict(stage1.parameters.get("initialize_frs_channel_columns", {})) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_spec_engine_country_bundles.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_spec_engine_country_bundles.py index 3276c22ca..c10b6fff9 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_spec_engine_country_bundles.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_spec_engine_country_bundles.py @@ -55,7 +55,7 @@ ), ( "uk", - "0accc39d40d8c8106f4c9bc5562ccca50f1212cd2a8cdf72f416978ca12570ff", + "e0dd9175920f6d1368a74957367182dc4d6357ffbdb1f728457ead91dd16dd9b", { "benunit.benunit_id", "household.household_id", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_spi_income.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_spi_income.py index 14faeb51e..8a8c11907 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_spi_income.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_spi_income.py @@ -1,7 +1,9 @@ from __future__ import annotations +import sys from dataclasses import replace from pathlib import Path +from types import SimpleNamespace import numpy as np import pandas as pd @@ -226,7 +228,185 @@ def _bypass_reviewed_donor_identity(monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch) -> None: monkeypatch.setattr(spi_income, "_verify_spi_donor_identity", lambda _: None) -@pytest.mark.requires_uk +def test_spi_preserves_observed_children_outside_the_donor_age_domain( + monkeypatch, tmp_path +) -> None: + """Preserve FRS inputs below the constructed donor-age support guard.""" + support = _dead_support() + person = support.person.copy() + channel = support_channel_column("person") + child = person.index[person[channel].eq("spi")][0] + person.loc[child, "age"] = 15 + preserved = [ + "employment_income", + "self_employment_income", + "private_pension_income", + "state_pension_reported", + "universal_credit_reported", + "savings_interest_income", + "tax_free_savings_income", + "dla_sc_reported", + ] + person.loc[child, preserved] = [0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 12, 3, 42] + support = replace(support, person=person) + donor_path = tmp_path / SPI_DONOR_FILENAME + _write_donor(donor_path) + monkeypatch.setattr(spi_income, "QRF", _FakeQRF) + _bypass_reviewed_donor_identity(monkeypatch) + + result = impute_uk_spi_income_support( + support, donor_path, seed=9, n_estimators=3, donor_sample_size=None + ) + + pd.testing.assert_series_equal( + result.person.loc[child, preserved], person.loc[child, preserved] + ) + assert result.spi_prediction_rows == int(person[channel].eq("spi").sum()) - 1 + adults = person[channel].eq("spi") & person.age.ge(16) + assert result.person.loc[adults, "gift_aid"].eq(10).all() + + +def test_spi_rebases_income_before_frs_fill_and_preserves_child_inputs( + monkeypatch, tmp_path +) -> None: + support = _dead_support() + person = support.person.copy() + channel = support_channel_column("person") + base_child = person.index[person[channel].eq("frs")][0] + person.loc[base_child, "age"] = 15 + person.loc[base_child, "dividend_income"] = 19.0 + support = replace(support, person=person) + donor_path = tmp_path / SPI_DONOR_FILENAME + _write_donor(donor_path) + monkeypatch.setattr(spi_income, "QRF", _FakeQRF) + _bypass_reviewed_donor_identity(monkeypatch) + factors = dict.fromkeys(SPI_INCOME_QRF_OUTPUT_COLUMNS, 2.0) + monkeypatch.setattr( + spi_income, + "_spi_income_uprating_factors", + lambda year: (factors, {"from_period": 2022, "to_period": year}), + raising=False, + ) + options = dict( + seed=9, + n_estimators=3, + donor_sample_size=None, + stage1_base_redraw_columns=("dividend_income",), + ) + reference = impute_uk_spi_income_support(support, donor_path, **options) + result = impute_uk_spi_income_support( + support, + donor_path, + rebase_income_to_build_period=True, + build_period=2024, + **options, + ) + spi = person[channel].eq("spi") + np.testing.assert_array_equal( + result.person.loc[spi, "employment_income"], + 2 * reference.person.loc[spi, "employment_income"], + ) + # Only taxable SPI interest is rebased; the FRS fill's £5 tax-free draw + # is already in the build-year basis and must not be doubled. + assert result.person.loc[spi, "savings_interest_income"].eq(205).all() + assert ( + result.person.loc[base_child, "dividend_income"] + == person.loc[base_child, "dividend_income"] + ) + base_adult = person[channel].eq("frs") & person.age.ge(16) + np.testing.assert_array_equal( + result.person.loc[base_adult, "dividend_income"], + 2 * reference.person.loc[base_adult, "dividend_income"], + ) + assert result.income_uprating == {"from_period": 2022, "to_period": 2024} + + +def test_child_exclusion_keeps_the_base_dividend_random_stream( + monkeypatch, tmp_path +) -> None: + support = _dead_support() + donor_path = tmp_path / SPI_DONOR_FILENAME + _write_donor(donor_path) + original_predict = _FakeFittedQRF.predict + + def predict(self, predictors): + result = original_predict(self, predictors) + if "dividend_income" in result: + consumed = getattr(self, "consumed", 0) + result["dividend_income"] = consumed + np.arange(len(result), dtype=float) + self.consumed = consumed + len(result) + return result + + monkeypatch.setattr(_FakeFittedQRF, "predict", predict) + monkeypatch.setattr(spi_income, "QRF", _FakeQRF) + _bypass_reviewed_donor_identity(monkeypatch) + options = dict( + seed=9, + n_estimators=3, + donor_sample_size=None, + stage1_base_redraw_columns=("dividend_income",), + ) + reference = impute_uk_spi_income_support(support, donor_path, **options) + person = support.person.copy() + channel = support_channel_column("person") + child = person.index[person[channel].eq("spi")][0] + person.loc[child, "age"] = 15 + candidate = impute_uk_spi_income_support( + replace(support, person=person), donor_path, **options + ) + base = person[channel].eq("frs") + np.testing.assert_array_equal( + reference.person.loc[base, "dividend_income"], + candidate.person.loc[base, "dividend_income"], + ) + + +def test_stage2_pension_bridge_uses_observed_and_drawn_receipt( + monkeypatch, tmp_path +) -> None: + support = _dead_support() + donor_path = tmp_path / SPI_DONOR_FILENAME + _write_donor(donor_path) + captured = {} + original_predict = _FakeFittedQRF.predict + + def predict(self, predictors): + result = original_predict(self, predictors) + if SPI_HMRC_STATE_PENSION_INCOME_COLUMN in result: + result[SPI_HMRC_STATE_PENSION_INCOME_COLUMN] = np.arange(len(result)) % 2 + if "state_pension_reported" in result: + captured["recipient"] = predictors["state_pension_receipt"].to_numpy() + return result + + class CapturingQRF(_FakeQRF): + def fit(self, frame, predictors, targets, *, weights): + if "state_pension_reported" in targets: + captured["training"] = frame.table("person")[ + "state_pension_receipt" + ].to_numpy() + return super().fit(frame, predictors, targets, weights=weights) + + monkeypatch.setattr(_FakeFittedQRF, "predict", predict) + monkeypatch.setattr(spi_income, "QRF", CapturingQRF) + _bypass_reviewed_donor_identity(monkeypatch) + result = impute_uk_spi_income_support( + support, + donor_path, + seed=9, + n_estimators=3, + donor_sample_size=None, + condition_on_state_pension_receipt=True, + ) + np.testing.assert_array_equal( + captured["recipient"], np.arange(result.spi_prediction_rows) % 2 + ) + assert captured["training"].all() + assert ( + result.pension_receipt_bridge["recipient_source"] + == "hmrc_spi_state_pension_income > 0" + ) + + def test_spi_qrf_stages_use_typed_weights_and_restore_gross_savings( monkeypatch, tmp_path, @@ -680,3 +860,170 @@ def test_the_spi_channel_ships_no_structural_nan_on_the_frs_channel( "stage-time zeros so the engine can load it and the calibration " "seam's finiteness fence can stay fail-loud" ) + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize("age", [15, 16]) +@pytest.mark.parametrize("channel", ["frs", "spi"]) +def test_spi_donor_age_boundary_applies_to_both_recipient_channels( + monkeypatch, tmp_path, age, channel +) -> None: + support = _dead_support() + person = support.person.copy() + recipient = person.index[person[support_channel_column("person")].eq(channel)][0] + person.loc[recipient, "age"] = age + person.loc[recipient, "dividend_income"] = 987.0 + person.loc[recipient, "universal_credit_reported"] = 1234.0 + support = replace(support, person=person) + donor_path = tmp_path / SPI_DONOR_FILENAME + _write_donor(donor_path) + monkeypatch.setattr(spi_income, "QRF", _FakeQRF) + _bypass_reviewed_donor_identity(monkeypatch) + + result = impute_uk_spi_income_support( + support, + donor_path, + seed=9, + n_estimators=3, + donor_sample_size=None, + stage1_base_redraw_columns=("dividend_income",), + ) + + if age == 15: + assert result.person.loc[recipient, "dividend_income"] == 987.0 + assert result.person.loc[recipient, "universal_credit_reported"] == 1234.0 + else: + assert result.person.loc[recipient, "dividend_income"] == 3.0 + if channel == "spi": + assert result.person.loc[recipient, "universal_credit_reported"] != 1234.0 + else: + assert result.person.loc[recipient, "universal_credit_reported"] == 1234.0 + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize( + ("defect", "message"), + [ + ("missing_variable", "Missing SPI uprating variable"), + ("missing_index", "Unsupported SPI uprating index"), + ("blank_index", "Unsupported SPI uprating index"), + ("callable_index", "Unsupported SPI uprating index"), + ("missing_parameter", "Missing SPI uprating parameter"), + ("nonpositive_index", "SPI uprating index must be positive"), + ("nonfinite_index", "SPI uprating index must be positive"), + ], +) +def test_declared_spi_uprating_mapping_cannot_silently_become_nominal( + monkeypatch, defect, message +) -> None: + variables = { + name: SimpleNamespace(uprating="index") + for name in spi_income.SPI_INCOME_UPRATING_VARIABLES.values() + if name is not None + } + variable = "self_employment_income" + if defect == "missing_variable": + del variables[variable] + elif defect == "missing_index": + variables[variable] = SimpleNamespace() + elif defect == "blank_index": + variables[variable].uprating = "" + elif defect == "callable_index": + variables[variable].uprating = lambda _: 1.0 + + def parameters(period): + if defect == "missing_parameter": + return SimpleNamespace() + value = 100.0 if period.startswith("2022") else 120.0 + if defect == "nonpositive_index": + value = 0.0 + elif defect == "nonfinite_index": + value = np.nan + return SimpleNamespace(index=value) + + system = SimpleNamespace(variables=variables, parameters=parameters) + monkeypatch.setitem( + sys.modules, + "policyengine_uk", + SimpleNamespace(CountryTaxBenefitSystem=lambda: system), + ) + + # Bypass memoization so one runtime's cached factors cannot conceal a + # changed or incomplete installed-engine contract. + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match=message): + spi_income._spi_income_uprating_factors.__wrapped__(2024) + + +@pytest.mark.requires_uk +def test_spi_uprating_uses_actual_engine_indices_and_explicit_nominal_holdouts() -> ( + None +): + from policyengine_uk import CountryTaxBenefitSystem + + system = CountryTaxBenefitSystem() + source = system.parameters("2022-01-01").gov.economic_assumptions.indices + target = system.parameters("2024-01-01").gov.economic_assumptions.indices + expected = { + "self_employment_income": ( + "obr.per_capita.mixed_income", + target.obr.per_capita.mixed_income / source.obr.per_capita.mixed_income, + ), + "savings_interest_income": ( + "ons.household_interest_income", + target.ons.household_interest_income / source.ons.household_interest_income, + ), + "dividend_income": ( + "obr.per_capita.gdp", + target.obr.per_capita.gdp / source.obr.per_capita.gdp, + ), + "private_pension_income": ( + "obr.private_pension_index", + target.obr.private_pension_index / source.obr.private_pension_index, + ), + "employment_income_before_lsr": ( + "obr.average_earnings", + target.obr.average_earnings / source.obr.average_earnings, + ), + } + expected["property_income"] = expected["dividend_income"] + expected["miscellaneous_income"] = expected["dividend_income"] + expected["other_investment_income"] = expected["dividend_income"] + nominal = { + "gift_aid", + "charitable_investment_gifts", + "hmrc_spi_incapacity_benefit_income", + "hmrc_spi_other_social_security_income", + "hmrc_spi_unemployment_benefit_income", + "hmrc_spi_state_pension_income", + } + + factors, receipt = spi_income._spi_income_uprating_factors.__wrapped__(2024) + + assert receipt["from_period"] == 2022 + assert receipt["to_period"] == 2024 + assert set(factors) == set(SPI_INCOME_QRF_OUTPUT_COLUMNS) + assert { + column + for column, row in receipt["columns"].items() + if row["basis"] == "held_nominal" + } == nominal + for column, row in receipt["columns"].items(): + if column in nominal: + assert row == { + "variable": None, + "index": None, + "factor": 1.0, + "basis": "held_nominal", + } + else: + path, ratio = expected[row["variable"]] + assert row["index"] == "gov.economic_assumptions.indices." + path + assert row["basis"] == "model_index" + assert factors[column] == pytest.approx(float(ratio)) + assert np.isfinite(factors[column]) and factors[column] > 0 + + unchanged, source_receipt = spi_income._spi_income_uprating_factors.__wrapped__( + 2022 + ) + assert set(unchanged.values()) == {1.0} + assert source_receipt["from_period"] == source_receipt["to_period"] == 2022 + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="before its source year"): + spi_income._spi_income_uprating_factors.__wrapped__(2021) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json index 79b49d543..7f927bd55 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json @@ -1608,10 +1608,31 @@ ] } }, + "donor_income_period": 2022, "double_apply_source_weight": false, "employment_income_source_semantics": "PolicyEngine input = PAY + EPB + TAXTERM, matching the pinned enhanced-FRS pipeline; it is not the Table 3.6 measure", "fit_weight_kind": "design", "hmrc_employed_income_source_semantics": "Derived after each draw as max(0, PAY + EPB - EXPS) + INCPBEN + OSSBEN + TAXTERM + UBISJA + MOTHINC, using normalized leaves identically on FRS and SPI channels", + "income_uprating_variables": { + "charitable_investment_gifts": null, + "dividend_income": "dividend_income", + "gift_aid": null, + "hmrc_spi_employment_benefits": "employment_income_before_lsr", + "hmrc_spi_employment_expenses": "employment_income_before_lsr", + "hmrc_spi_incapacity_benefit_income": null, + "hmrc_spi_miscellaneous_employment_income": "employment_income_before_lsr", + "hmrc_spi_other_income": "miscellaneous_income", + "hmrc_spi_other_social_security_income": null, + "hmrc_spi_pay": "employment_income_before_lsr", + "hmrc_spi_state_pension_income": null, + "hmrc_spi_taxable_termination_pay": "employment_income_before_lsr", + "hmrc_spi_unemployment_benefit_income": null, + "other_investment_income": "other_investment_income", + "private_pension_income": "private_pension_income", + "property_income": "property_income", + "savings_interest_income": "savings_interest_income", + "self_employment_income": "self_employment_income" + }, "initialize_frs_channel_columns": { "charitable_investment_gifts": 0, "gift_aid": 0 @@ -1645,6 +1666,8 @@ "gender", "region" ], + "rebase_income_to_build_period": true, + "recipient_minimum_age": 16, "require_all_outputs": true, "require_all_predictors": true, "sample_size": 64, @@ -1810,7 +1833,8 @@ "savings_interest_income", "dividend_income", "private_pension_income", - "property_income" + "property_income", + "state_pension_receipt" ], "require_all_materializable_outputs": true, "require_all_outputs": false, diff --git a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json index 101ad7a8b..9c9076ede 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json @@ -1 +1 @@ -{"country":"uk","nodes":[{"base":null,"citation":"","description":"Load the source-bound UK FRS root 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<127882282+juaristi22@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Mon, 7 Sep 2026 11:40:09 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 06/12] Record matched SPI builds on the UK publication baseline --- experiments/879-publication-spi-comparison.md | 370 +- experiments/build_879_publication_receipt.py | 763 + .../uk-publication-spi-comparison.json | 38148 ++++++++++++++++ .../uk-publication-spi-native-validation.json | 124 + 4 files changed, 39361 insertions(+), 44 deletions(-) create mode 100644 experiments/build_879_publication_receipt.py create mode 100644 experiments/receipts/uk-publication-spi-comparison.json create mode 100644 experiments/receipts/uk-publication-spi-native-validation.json diff --git a/experiments/879-publication-spi-comparison.md b/experiments/879-publication-spi-comparison.md index a8e87bba1..676d927f3 100644 --- a/experiments/879-publication-spi-comparison.md +++ b/experiments/879-publication-spi-comparison.md @@ -7,24 +7,39 @@ income flows to the build period, and conditions the FRS-only imputation on a pension-receipt proxy. Source review also identified an omitted OTHERINV index and corrected the interpretation of the age boundary. -**Status: the combined native-validation verdict and genuine matched-build -results are pending.** This report defines the comparison before those results -are available. The old experiment's loss reduction does not measure this port. -No candidate is certified by this report. +**Matched result: national loss falls 35.8%, from 0.02346446 to 0.01506890, +and targets within 10% rise from 334/371 to 338/371. The candidate remains a +draft with release-blocking failures.** The ONS interest row accounts for +98.8% of the net objective gain. Aggregate income tax and state pension worsen; +three new target-fit failures appear. These results support the source +corrections but do not resolve the joint tax/pension/UC problem or establish an +overall release improvement. This is a combined SPI treatment, including the +reviewed OTHERINV correction; its effects are not attributed to the pension +bridge alone. + +The [paired aggregate receipt](receipts/uk-publication-spi-comparison.json) +contains every one of the 371 target estimates, fixed bindings and loss weights, +contributions by target and family, source-quality summaries and gate verdicts. +It supersedes the historical experiment for judging this publication-stack port. +The [receipt generator](build_879_publication_receipt.py) rechecks those +identities against retained local runs and licensed input hashes. Its explicit +contract/manifest arguments and local paths are documented in the script; +regeneration reproduces the paired receipt byte-for-byte. ## Publication and runtime provenance | Item | Pin or status | |---|---| | Control publication commit | `d43b4203c6ebe10e062cb3ef3034e66731ea055d` on `uk-publication-stack-834` | -| Earlier #874 head | `8de6bf44d7bd4a5b6ce5c8c24add4501c0944824` | +| Earlier [#874](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/pull/874) head | `8de6bf44d7bd4a5b6ce5c8c24add4501c0944824` | | Original SPI delta | `bc11803f915fe72afd724515a27a3863035f4efc` → `194111af32b265b226dcbefe33cc735f362461dc` | -| Treatment identification | Publication control plus the reviewed SPI delta, the source-review corrections below, and its recorded implementation hashes; final commit and genuine-run hashes pending | +| Treatment source commit | `fc49b48200e1e15fe35bb4e15b948992bf03c28d`, directly atop the publication control; later report-only commits do not identify the executed source | | PolicyEngine-UK / Core | `2.94.0` / `3.31.0` | | NumPy / pandas / scikit-learn | `2.4.6` / `3.0.3` / `1.8.0` | | Both environments' `uv.lock` SHA-256 | `ca9305fcebb5854d8d8369eb10fd134c918da7a79ab90f21c932c946b35165e5` | | SPI source period / FRS build period / calibration year | `2022` / `2024` / `2025` | -| Genuine control/treatment H5 hashes | Pending | +| Control H5 SHA-256 | `2e68a13fc066c4b0b8b240361922596f9c268275e91223a49f66e3c8442ab157` | +| Treatment H5 SHA-256 | `a674409ea6c27919f02c267c06f5af24ee0628cbf2213ad8b7e8e37032eb0180` | The port applies the declared-base SPI delta selectively. The publication stack is not a descendant of the old SPI base, so inheriting the entire old branch @@ -160,7 +175,7 @@ outside this experiment. | Target weighting | `family_equal` | | Solver seed | 0 | | Maximum weight ratio | 10 | -| Gate evaluation date | Record each run's actual date; use the same day for the pair | +| Gate evaluation date | 7 September 2026 in both actual run receipts | | Target, measure-exclusion, gate, take-up and CGT-source definitions | Preserve the publication control's definitions | Both runs use the canonical Chronicle consumer artifact produced from source @@ -172,12 +187,72 @@ Both runs use the canonical Chronicle consumer artifact produced from source The publication loader verifies both hashes. Its runtime compiles the national reference declarations and then applies the reviewed measure exclusions. -The prior #874 receipts reported 415 active references and 371 matrix targets; -these are historical counts to check, not substitutes for compiling this -publication tip. Before interpreting the genuine results, record and compare -the actual target names, target values, binding provenance, excluded measures -and loss weights from both runs. A changed target surface cannot establish an -SPI improvement. +Both genuine runs independently compile 415 active references, exclude the +same 44 measures and calibrate the same 371 targets under registry +`794e11262011`. The paired receipt verifies the complete target names, values, +periods, entities, measure/filter bindings, source metadata and loss weights, +plus runtime, lock, canonical feed and manifest, actual raw-file hashes, +resource pins, seeds, fit-weight algorithms and gate definitions. Names and +values have SHA-256 `a5a76f92ddc56b267505301ba7933f50ef7ce2ba0724f898b4f13d7896c8ffb8` +and `9b96ff695a6b75f66d966cab452aedd06043f56eac4d692261405b571195c16a`. +Changed generated support changes the matrix values; that measured treatment +outcome is not a change to the target contract. + +### Reproducing the aggregate receipt + +The generator accepts the two retained run directories, this repository and +two explicit local input manifests. Reconstruct their reviewed metadata from +the committed receipt as follows, choosing an output directory outside the +repository and filling in local paths to the licensed inputs and Chronicle +artifact. This extraction uses input metadata only; the generator independently +pins its canonical hashes and never reads a previous numeric output. + +```python +import json +from pathlib import Path + +receipt = json.loads(Path( + "experiments/receipts/uk-publication-spi-comparison.json" +).read_text()) +local = Path("/path/outside/repository/reproduction") +local.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) +contract = dict(receipt["comparison_contract"]) +contract["raw_source_locations_file"] = str(local / "source-paths.json") +contract["chronicle_path"] = "/path/to/chronicle-uk-6fb700e" +(local / "comparison-contract.json").write_text(json.dumps(contract, indent=2)) +(local / "protected-manifest.json").write_text(json.dumps( + receipt["protected_publication_files"], indent=2 +)) +raw = receipt["raw_source_verification"] +print(raw["raw_acquisition_repository"], raw["raw_acquisition_revision"]) +print(*raw["verified_files"], sep="\n") # All 21 required input basenames. +``` + +Create `source-paths.json` with shape +`{"repo": "", "revision": "", "files": {"inputs": ["/absolute/path/to/input1", "/absolute/path/to/input2"]}}`. +Use the repository/revision printed above and list every required basename +under `verified_files`, retaining each actual filename. Groups can have any +name because the reader flattens their path lists. Include the HMRC ODS paths +in `files`, or place those ODS files beside `source-paths.json`. The Chronicle +directory must contain `consumer_facts.jsonl` and `manifest.json` with the +recorded hashes. The generator verifies the actual raw-file sizes/hashes and +both Chronicle files; paths alone do not establish provenance. + +Then run the documented CLI in the pinned treatment environment, for example: + +```sh +uv run --no-sync python experiments/build_879_publication_receipt.py \ + --repo . --control /path/to/pub879-control --treatment /path/to/pub879-spi \ + --contract /path/outside/repository/reproduction/comparison-contract.json \ + --protected-manifest /path/outside/repository/reproduction/protected-manifest.json \ + --output /path/outside/repository/reproduction/paired-receipt.json +``` + +Later evidence-only commits may be checked out: the generator binds the +recorded executed source commits `d43b4203` and `fc49b482`, not the current +HEAD. Keep the runtime/source files and locked environment at those reviewed +versions. Both the repository invocation and a standalone generator copy +without an existing receipt directory reproduced the committed receipt bytes. ## Protected publication decisions @@ -222,37 +297,244 @@ No new binding, exclusion, expiry extension, take-up change or gate suppression is part of the SPI comparison. A release gate becoming stale remains a reported failure until its existing decision is separately reviewed. -## Validation and results - -Combined native validation is pending. The required checks include normal UK -package initialization, source/schema/coverage contracts, full invented -country/graph execution against the live legacy oracle, and actual UK-engine -uprating contracts. Invented parity fixtures establish executable contracts; -they do not establish population fit. Any inherited failure must be reported -alongside its same-runtime control reproduction. - -Genuine control/treatment builds and national calibration results are pending. -The completed comparison will report the following outcomes without dropping -regressions: - -| Outcome | Control | SPI treatment | +## Native validation + +Normal package import and `CountryTaxBenefitSystem` initialization succeed in +both locked environments. The native matrix exercises the shared compiler, +source/schema/coverage contracts, full invented graph against the live legacy +oracle, and actual installed UK-engine uprating. Invented fixtures test execution +and contracts; the genuine builds below test population fit. + +| Invocation | Passed | Failed | Skipped | Classification | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---| +| Publication focused contracts, 370 cases | 363 | 1 | 6 | Historical cached-evidence engine pin 2.89.0 versus installed 2.94.0. | +| Treatment focused contracts before pin repair, 386 cases | 378 | 2 | 6 | Same historical failure plus the omitted UK specification hash expectation. | +| Affected country-bundle file after exact pin repair, 18 cases | 18 | 0 | 0 | Resolves the introduced expectation failure; the original invocation remains recorded. | +| Treatment SPI file after formatting, 38 cases | 37 | 0 | 1 | Includes actual engine mapping/failure tests and explicit age 15/16 boundaries. | +| Publication full graph/legacy oracle, 336 cases | 335 | 0 | 1 | Optional US-engine case skips. | +| Treatment full graph/legacy oracle, 336 cases | 335 | 0 | 1 | Same scope and optional skip. | +| Treatment data contract, 229 cases | 229 | 0 | 0 | Checks the downstream specification identity dependency. | + +After later targeted reruns supersede the same logical cases, the treatment has +943 passing, one inherited failing and seven skipped distinct cases. The 18- and +38-case reruns are not additional distinct tests. This is not a clean whole-suite +rerun or an all-tests-pass claim. The historical failure is +`test_cached_candidate_regeneration_matches_committed_evidence`; both untouched +publication and treatment reproduce the same cached 2.89.0/installed 2.94.0 +engine mismatch. The comparison retains that golden evidence. Source-owned +coverage regeneration/check, changed-file Ruff formatting/lint and test inventory +checks pass. The [native receipt](receipts/uk-publication-spi-native-validation.json) +records invocations, counts and the exact failure classification. + +## Genuine build and calibration results + +Both full national spines complete all 28 production stages and pass all 15 +spine gates. Both 1,500-epoch calibration solves finish. Terminal gate failure +returns exit code 1 and prevents export of `calibrated.h5` in both runs. + +Each selected run emits a signed HMAC-SHA256 attestation using an ephemeral +local developer key, with no signing error. These producer signatures are not +production certificates or independently reproducible verification after key +disposal. An earlier control invocation used the wrong key encoding and is +retained separately as an excluded unsigned attempt. Every diagnostics field +outside build provenance matches the selected control rerun exactly. Calibration +and diagnostic readers verify unchanged H5 hashes before/after; an observed +mtime change did not change the control's bytes. + +### Fit and concentration + +| Metric | Publication control | SPI treatment | +|---|---:|---:| +| Final loss | 0.023464462 | 0.015068903 | +| Targets within 10% | 334 / 371 | 338 / 371 | +| Effective sample size | 5,868.4 | 5,758.9 | +| Top 1% share of calibrated weight | 18.867% | 19.032% | +| Maximum calibrated/prior weight ratio | 10.0 | 10.0 | +| Positive-weight households | 52,846 | 52,846 | +| Total calibrated household weight | 29,848,124.77 | 29,811,148.67 | + +Absolute relative error improves for 181 targets, worsens for 189 and is +unchanged for one (equality tolerance 1e-12). Nine targets enter the 10% band +while five leave it. The fixed `family_equal` objective weights families +equally and targets within each family equally; one interest row is the entire +ONS national-accounts family. Its contribution falls from 0.008294907490 to +0.000003178594, accounting for 0.008291728896 of the net 0.008395558522 loss +reduction (98.763%). The remaining 370 targets contribute a net reduction of +0.000103829626. The aggregate objective therefore cannot stand in for a joint +tax/pension/UC success criterion. + +Signed target error is `(estimate - target) / target`. The receipt also contains +the target amounts and every before/after estimate. + +| Target | Control error | Treatment error | +|---|---:|---:| +| OBR income tax | -12.151% | -12.562% | +| OBR total state pension | -8.136% | -11.695% | +| HMRC pension amount, £20–30k income band | +25.323% | +25.211% | +| HMRC pension amount, £50–70k income band | +34.563% | +16.867% | +| HMRC private-pension count, £100–150k income band | +24.716% | +14.256% | +| ONS savings interest | -18.249% | +0.007% | +| UC households | -13.400% | -12.975% | +| UC single with children | -35.309% | -34.525% | +| UC one child | -28.924% | -31.551% | +| UC two children | -38.872% | -30.671% | +| UC five or more children | -28.600% | -28.618% | +| OBR CGT | +44.180% | +43.744% | +| HMRC gains total | -0.248% | -0.520% | +| HMRC CGT taxpayer count | -0.349% | -0.312% | +| TFC government top-up | -0.136% | +0.299% | +| TFC children with used accounts | -0.148% | +0.381% | +| Targeted childcare, two-year-olds | -0.335% | +0.099% | +| Working-parent childcare, ages 2–4 | +0.033% | -0.072% | +| Universal-only childcare | -0.451% | -0.079% | + +Income tax falls from £291.165bn to £289.802bn against a £331.438bn target; +state pension falls from £134.293bn to £129.090bn against £146.186bn. The +£50–70k pension band improves enough to pass the unchanged 25% fit bound, +while the £20–30k band remains just outside it. UC with-children residuals are +mixed and remain substantial. Better source coherence has not resolved the +calibration tension. + +### Objective contributions and regressions + +The following table includes every target family. Positive reduction means +less contribution to final loss; negative reduction means deterioration. + +| Family | Targets | Control contribution | Treatment contribution | Reduction | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| `obr` | 21 | 0.003864297 | 0.003806251 | +0.000058046 | +| `isc` | 1 | 0.000048858 | 0.000001314 | +0.000047544 | +| `hmrc_salary_sacrifice` | 3 | 0.000204716 | 0.000212828 | -0.000008112 | +| `hmrc_spi` | 129 | 0.001372467 | 0.001048345 | +0.000324122 | +| `hmrc_cgt` | 2 | 0.000135737 | 0.000189119 | -0.000053382 | +| `dwp_benefit_cap` | 1 | 0.000072313 | 0.000025936 | +0.000046377 | +| `dwp_legacy_benefits` | 4 | 0.002312393 | 0.002360476 | -0.000048084 | +| `dwp_universal_credit` | 95 | 0.000884966 | 0.001291308 | -0.000406342 | +| `dwp_two_child_limit` | 15 | 0.000075536 | 0.000043369 | +0.000032167 | +| `ons_population` | 50 | 0.000404484 | 0.000368509 | +0.000035975 | +| `ons_household_composition` | 7 | 0.000025831 | 0.000037483 | -0.000011652 | +| `council_tax_stock` | 18 | 0.002347491 | 0.002300426 | +0.000047065 | +| `scotgov_social_security` | 1 | 0.000085076 | 0.000090198 | -0.000005122 | +| `ons_national_accounts` | 1 | 0.008294907 | 0.000003179 | +0.008291729 | +| `ons_employment` | 1 | 0.000037085 | 0.000020812 | +0.000016273 | +| `ons_land` | 3 | 0.000975697 | 0.000974123 | +0.000001574 | +| `slc_repayments` | 3 | 0.000036065 | 0.000028184 | +0.000007881 | +| `slc_borrowers` | 3 | 0.000021739 | 0.000039943 | -0.000018204 | +| `slc_student_support` | 6 | 0.002018843 | 0.001995919 | +0.000022924 | +| `hmrc_tfc` | 2 | 0.000064663 | 0.000154545 | -0.000089882 | +| `dfe_funded_childcare` | 3 | 0.000124053 | 0.000037850 | +0.000086203 | +| `dft_local_bus` | 2 | 0.000057244 | 0.000038786 | +0.000018458 | + +The five largest target-level increases in loss contribution are: + +| Target | Control error | Treatment error | Added loss | +|---|---:|---:|---:| +| `dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_27_600_to_28_800@2025` | -0.014% | -100.000% | 0.000478404 | +| `voa.council_tax_stock.band_a@2025` | +22.804% | +28.182% | 0.000135810 | +| `obr.state_pension@2025` | -8.136% | -11.695% | 0.000077043 | +| `hmrc.cgt.gains_total@2025` | -0.248% | -0.520% | 0.000061837 | +| `hmrc/self_employment_income_income_band_50_000_to_70_000@2025` | +19.850% | +35.413% | 0.000054837 | + +The UC couple-without-children £27.6–28.8k annual-payment cell has a target of +746.333 benefit units. Its control estimate moves from 586.0 before calibration +to 746.232 afterward; treatment is zero both before and after. All 52,846 final +household weights are positive. For a nonnegative count this implies no positive +realized treatment support in that cell, rather than a zero-weight collapse. +This is an inference from aggregate diagnostics; the prepared matrix was not +retained. It does not identify which SPI or downstream support change removed +the cell. Reweighting its current empty support cannot recover the target. + +### Generated support and source quality + +| Final generated spine | Publication control | SPI treatment | +|---|---:|---:| +| Households | 52,846 | 52,846 | +| People | 113,626 | 113,590 | +| Benefit units | 61,234 | 61,213 | +| Total household prior weight | 29,247,433 | 29,247,433 | + +Both use importance weights after combining source support. Household counts +and total prior mass agree, but the final household ID sets and prior-weight +vectors ordered by household ID differ. The same input sample and design-weight +algorithms therefore do not imply identical final generated support. The full +rebuild propagates the SPI changes into 36 fewer people and 21 fewer benefit +units, including downstream CGT cloning effects. + +At final source-spine prior weights, employment assigned to SPI-channel +under-16s falls from £66.176bn to zero; their private pension falls from +£0.515bn to zero. These are imputation-quality diagnostics, not estimates of +actual children's income. Among SPI recipients aged 16 and older, the pension +receipt proxy mismatch affects 3.797% of prior-weighted person mass in the +control. The treatment has fewer than three mismatching records, so its small +cell and weighted amount are suppressed. This does not establish pension +entitlement accuracy, and qualifying FRS children aged 16–19 remain exposed to +the SPI draw as described above. + +The UC income screen is `max(0, uc_maximum_amount - uc_income_reduction) > 0` +at 2025 policies and source-spine prior weights. It precedes take-up and other +award conditions; passing it is not complete UC eligibility. For SPI support: + +| Family | Control passing mass | Treatment passing mass | Control share | Treatment share | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| Couple with children | 211,143 | 477,527 | 9.42% | 21.32% | +| Single with children | 385,679 | 709,599 | 27.17% | 49.40% | + +The separate CGT treatment remains excluded. Nevertheless, the changed SPI +spine propagates through the unchanged CGT algorithm: prior-weighted total +gains change from £97.351bn to £97.591bn and £5m-plus gains from £24.603bn to +£22.182bn. That is an induced-support result, not evidence for #878's tail +correction. After calibration, OBR CGT remains +43.744% above target, while +HMRC gains and taxpayer counts remain within 1%; #875's vintage/timing +reconciliation remains relevant. + +### Gate and decision verdicts + +All 15 spine gates pass on both runs. For terminal gates: + +| Gate | Publication control | SPI treatment | |---|---|---| -| Person, benefit-unit and household counts; generated prior weight totals | Pending | Pending | -| Final national loss and contributions by target/family | Pending | Pending | -| Aggregate income tax and state pension | Pending | Pending | -| HMRC pension amounts in the £20–30k and £50–70k income bands | Pending | Pending | -| ONS savings-interest fit | Pending | Pending | -| UC with-children support and fit | Pending | Pending | -| CGT level/fit and downstream support changes | Pending | Pending | -| Weight concentration and effective sample size | Pending | Pending | -| Every terminal-gate verdict and stale/expired decision | Pending | Pending | +| Aggregate administration | Passed | Passed | +| Calibration reference coverage | Passed | Passed | +| Target fit | Failed | Failed | +| Weight ESS | Passed | Passed | +| Weight ratio | Passed | Passed | +| Zero-weight strata | Passed | Passed | + +The control fails the £20–30k and £50–70k state-pension amount bands and the +stale private-pension exclusion. The treatment removes the £50–70k failure, +retains the £20–30k failure (+25.211%) and adds three failures: + +- UC couples without children, £27.6–28.8k annual payment: −100.000%. +- Self-employment income, £50–70k income band: +35.413%. +- Council-tax stock, band A: +28.182%. + +The private-pension £100–150k count exclusion is stale in both runs: its +residual is already within the 25% bound in the control (+24.716%) and improves +to +14.256%. The retained entry therefore continues to fail the native stale +decision check. It should be adjudicated separately; deleting it would not +resolve the other target-fit failures. Neither run has expired, premature or +dormant exclusions. UC and CGT reviewed deferrals retain their original reasons +and dates. + +A22/A23 remain holds at TFC 0.88 and targeted childcare 0.597; the landed +extended/universal values stay 0.6054/0.4539. The new childcare target errors +are small at these fixed rates, but calibration fit does not re-estimate +take-up or rerun the historical eligible-base ceiling analysis. The experiment +does not justify replacing those decisions. No target, exclusion, gate, expiry, +take-up setting or solver tuning was changed to obtain this comparison. The shared quality schema/exporter described in the handoff is not present on the selected publication tree. Its existing `tools/emit_lineage_dashboard.py` -exports US imputation lineage. Exporting a genuine UK candidate requires the -actual shared schema/adapter and the completed run's grain, decisions and -incomplete checks. The invented UK dashboard prototype is not genuine dataset -evidence. Release publication remains a separate decision. - -Refs #665, #736, #796, #840, #866 and #862; independent CGT work remains in -#878 and #875. +exports US imputation lineage. This aggregate experiment receipt does not +create a shared dashboard contract, and the invented UK dashboard prototype +is not genuine dataset evidence. Both native runs refuse calibrated export; +release publication remains blocked. + +Refs [#665](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/665), +[#736](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/736), +[#796](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/796), +[#840](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/840), +[#866](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/866) and +[#862](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/862); independent CGT +work remains in [#878](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/pull/878) and +[#875](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/875). diff --git a/experiments/build_879_publication_receipt.py b/experiments/build_879_publication_receipt.py new file mode 100644 index 000000000..fdd1f489f --- /dev/null +++ b/experiments/build_879_publication_receipt.py @@ -0,0 +1,763 @@ +"""Audit a matched SPI experiment and write aggregate-only local receipts. + +Run with the pinned treatment venv. This helper never edits a repository or +exports a dataset. Its JSON is an experiment receipt, not a dashboard schema. + +Example (all local paths are explicit; licensed inputs remain local):: + + uv run --no-sync python experiments/build_879_publication_receipt.py \ + --repo . --control /path/to/pub879-control --treatment /path/to/pub879-spi \ + --contract /path/to/publication-comparison-contract.json \ + --protected-manifest /path/to/publication-protected-pin-transition.json \ + --output /path/outside/repository/paired-receipt.json + +The contract contains the reported comparison_contract fields plus +raw_source_locations_file (an acquisition manifest with repo/revision/files) +and chronicle_path (the canonical consumer artifact directory). The protected +manifest contains the reviewed protected_publication_files object. Their +portable metadata is bound by frozen canonical JSON hashes below, independently +of the generated output. Supplied files are checked against those approved pins, +the two fixed source commits and actual input bytes. Existing output is never +read, and passing a different contract cannot replace the selected pins. +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import argparse +import hashlib +import json +import math +import subprocess +from pathlib import Path +from urllib.parse import urlparse + +import numpy as np +import pandas as pd + +PUBLICATION_COMMIT = "d43b4203c6ebe10e062cb3ef3034e66731ea055d" +TREATMENT_COMMIT = "fc49b48200e1e15fe35bb4e15b948992bf03c28d" +# Reviewed experiment inputs, SHA-256 of sorted compact JSON with finite values. +# Local input locations are omitted from the portable comparison-contract pin. +CONTRACT_SHA256 = "07f0f618c7cb0606dbf4bc9841868334c976115fe8b2b17f8a654f3cd6f19283" +PROTECTED_SHA256 = "3e44dc75aca1658e4f78660dd5c0ec667e043c377662e30797828275a4955532" +OUTCOME_FIELDS = { + "initial_estimate", + "final_estimate", + "relative_error", + "within_tolerance", + "final_capped_scaled_error", + "final_loss_contribution", +} +NOMINAL = { + "gift_aid", + "charitable_investment_gifts", + "hmrc_spi_incapacity_benefit_income", + "hmrc_spi_other_social_security_income", + "hmrc_spi_unemployment_benefit_income", + "hmrc_spi_state_pension_income", +} +KEY_TARGETS = [ + "obr.income_tax@2025", + "obr.state_pension@2025", + "hmrc/state_pension_income_band_20_000_to_30_000@2025", + "hmrc/state_pension_income_band_50_000_to_70_000@2025", + "hmrc/private_pension_income_count_income_band_100_000_to_150_000@2025", + "ons.savings_interest_income@2025", + "dwp.uc.households@2025", + "dwp.uc.households_single_with_children@2025", + "dwp.uc.households_children_1@2025", + "dwp.uc.households_children_2@2025", + "dwp.uc.households_children_5_or_more@2025", + "obr.capital_gains_tax@2025", + "hmrc.cgt.gains_total@2025", + "hmrc.cgt.taxpayers_total@2025", + "hmrc.tfc.government_top_up@2025", + "hmrc.tfc.children_with_used_accounts@2025", + "dfe.funded_childcare.early_learning_2_year_olds@2025", + "dfe.funded_childcare.working_parent_children_2_to_4@2025", + "dfe.funded_childcare.universal_only_children@2025", +] + + +def read(path): + return json.loads(Path(path).read_text()) + + +def file_sha(path): + digest = hashlib.sha256() + with Path(path).open("rb") as stream: + for block in iter(lambda: stream.read(1024 * 1024), b""): + digest.update(block) + return digest.hexdigest() + + +def value_sha(value): + return hashlib.sha256( + json.dumps( + value, sort_keys=True, separators=(",", ":"), allow_nan=False + ).encode() + ).hexdigest() + + +def git_bytes(repo, ref, path): + return subprocess.check_output(["git", "show", f"{ref}:{path}"], cwd=repo) + + +def read_run(path): + path = Path(path).resolve() + required = [ + "spine.h5", + "spine.build.json", + "spine.spine_gates.json", + "calibration_diagnostics.json", + "calibration_gates.json", + "calibration_invocation.json", + "uc_support.json", + ] + missing = [name for name in required if not (path / name).is_file()] + if missing: + raise ValueError(f"Incomplete run {path.name}: {missing}") + return { + "path": path, + "diagnostics": read(path / "calibration_diagnostics.json"), + "build": read(path / "spine.build.json"), + "gates": read(path / "calibration_gates.json"), + "spine_gates": read(path / "spine.spine_gates.json"), + "invocation": read(path / "calibration_invocation.json"), + "uc_support": read(path / "uc_support.json"), + "file_hashes": {name: file_sha(path / name) for name in required}, + } + + +def stable_target(row): + return {key: value for key, value in row.items() if key not in OUTCOME_FIELDS} + + +def stable_resolution(resolution): + provider = { + key: value + for key, value in resolution["provider"].items() + if key != "source_path" + } + return {**resolution, "provider": provider} + + +def verify_run(run, repo, expected_code, contract, require_signature=True): + d, build = run["diagnostics"], run["build"] + assert d["build"]["code_pin"] == expected_code + assert run["invocation"]["code_pin"] == expected_code + for field in ["input_sha256_before", "input_sha256_after"]: + assert run["invocation"][field] == run["file_hashes"]["spine.h5"] + for field in ["input_sha256_before", "input_sha256_after"]: + if field in run["uc_support"]: + assert run["uc_support"][field] == run["file_hashes"]["spine.h5"] + assert d["build"]["input_posture"]["sha256"] == run["file_hashes"]["spine.h5"] + assert ( + d["build"]["spine_provenance"]["sidecar"]["sha256"] + == run["file_hashes"]["spine.build.json"] + ) + assert ( + d["build"]["spine_provenance"]["spine_gate_report"]["sha256"] + == run["file_hashes"]["spine.spine_gates.json"] + ) + assert ( + d["build"]["ledger"]["facts_sha256"] == contract["consumer_facts.jsonl_sha256"] + ) + assert d["build"]["ledger"]["manifest_sha256"] == contract["manifest.json_sha256"] + assert build["time_period"] == str(contract["build_period"]) + assert {row["period"] for row in d["targets"]} == {contract["calibration_year"]} + lock = hashlib.sha256(git_bytes(repo, expected_code, "uv.lock")).hexdigest() + assert lock == contract["microcosm_lock_sha256"] + assert ( + d["build"]["runtime"]["policyengine-uk"] + == build["rules_engine"]["version"] + == "2.94.0" + ) + assert d["target_surface"]["n_targets"] == len(d["targets"]) == 371 + assert d["build"]["register"] == { + "country": "uk", + "version": d["target_registry"]["version"], + "compiled_count": 415, + "excluded_count": 44, + "calibrated_count": 371, + } + for key in ["method", "epochs", "learning_rate", "seed", "max_weight_ratio"]: + assert d["options"][key] == contract["solver"][key] + assert ( + d["build"]["doctrine"]["target_weight_rule"] + == contract["solver"]["target_weight_rule"] + ) + total = math.fsum(row["final_loss_contribution"] for row in d["targets"]) + assert math.isclose(total, d["final_loss"], rel_tol=1e-10, abs_tol=1e-12), ( + total, + d["final_loss"], + ) + attestation = run["gates"]["attestation"] + if require_signature: + assert attestation.get("signature") and not attestation.get("signing_error"), ( + "Selected run must have a valid producer signing step; archive unsigned attempts separately" + ) + assert not run["gates"]["release_candidate"] + if any(row["status"] == "failed" for row in run["gates"]["gates"].values()): + assert not (run["path"] / "calibrated.h5").exists(), ( + "Gate-failed run unexpectedly exported calibrated.h5" + ) + assert all( + row["status"] != "failed" for row in run["spine_gates"]["gates"].values() + ) + return { + "code_pin": expected_code, + "lock_sha256": lock, + "target_binding_metadata_sha256": value_sha( + [stable_target(row) for row in d["targets"]] + ), + "verified_loss_contribution_sum": total, + } + + +def verify_raw_inputs(build, contract): + source_manifest = read(contract["raw_source_locations_file"]) + inputs = Path(contract["raw_source_locations_file"]).parent + paths = { + Path(path).name: Path(path) + for files in source_manifest["files"].values() + for path in files + } + paths.update({path.name: path for path in inputs.glob("*.ods")}) + verified = {} + for group in ["artifact_pins", "input_artifact_pins"]: + for role, pin in build[group].items(): + candidate = pin.get("filename", pin.get("locator", role)) + name = Path(urlparse(candidate).path).name + if name == "caller-supplied local input": + name = role + assert name in paths, (group, role, name) + path = paths[name] + if name not in verified: + verified[name] = { + "sha256": file_sha(path), + "size_bytes": path.stat().st_size, + } + assert verified[name]["sha256"] == pin["sha256"], name + assert verified[name]["size_bytes"] == pin["size_bytes"], name + feed = Path(contract["chronicle_path"]) + assert ( + file_sha(feed / "consumer_facts.jsonl") + == contract["consumer_facts.jsonl_sha256"] + ) + assert file_sha(feed / "manifest.json") == contract["manifest.json_sha256"] + return { + "raw_acquisition_repository": source_manifest["repo"], + "raw_acquisition_revision": source_manifest["revision"], + "verified_files": verified, + } + + +def source_quality(run_path): + from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.national_frame import load_uk_national_frame + + path = Path(run_path) / "spine.h5" + before = file_sha(path) + frame, _ = load_uk_national_frame(path) + p, b, h = (frame.table(entity) for entity in ["person", "benunit", "household"]) + hw = frame.weights_for("household").values + pw = p.person_household_id.map(pd.Series(hw, index=h.household_id)).to_numpy() + assert np.isfinite(pw).all() + flows = [ + "employment_income", + "self_employment_income", + "private_pension_income", + "dividend_income", + "other_investment_income", + "savings_interest_income", + "tax_free_savings_income", + "state_pension_reported", + "hmrc_spi_state_pension_income", + ] + + def aggregate(mask): + count = int(mask.sum()) + if 0 < count < 3: + return {"rows": "fewer_than_3", "suppressed": True} + result = {"rows": count, "person_mass": float(pw[mask].sum()), "flows": {}} + for column in flows: + values = p[column].to_numpy(dtype=float) + positive = mask & (values != 0) + nonzero = int(positive.sum()) + result["flows"][column] = ( + {"suppressed": True, "nonzero_rows": "fewer_than_3"} + if 0 < nonzero < 3 + else { + "nonzero_rows": nonzero, + "weighted_total": float(np.dot(pw[mask], values[mask])), + } + ) + return result + + channels = {} + for channel in ["frs", "spi"]: + selected = p.person_support_channel.eq(channel).to_numpy() + channels[channel] = { + name: aggregate(selected & mask) + for name, mask in { + "under_16": p.age.lt(16).to_numpy(), + "ages_16_to_19": p.age.between(16, 19).to_numpy(), + "age_16_plus": p.age.ge(16).to_numpy(), + }.items() + } + selected = p.person_support_channel.eq("spi").to_numpy() & p.age.ge(16).to_numpy() + mismatch = selected & ( + p.state_pension_reported.gt(0).to_numpy() + != p.hmrc_spi_state_pension_income.gt(0).to_numpy() + ) + n = int(mismatch.sum()) + pension = ( + { + "mismatch_rows": "fewer_than_3", + "suppressed": True, + "interpretation": "predictive receipt proxy; not an entitlement or amount identity", + } + if 0 < n < 3 + else { + "mismatch_rows": n, + "mismatch_person_mass": float(pw[mismatch].sum()), + "mismatch_share_of_spi_age_16_plus_mass": float( + pw[mismatch].sum() / pw[selected].sum() + ), + "interpretation": "predictive receipt proxy; not an entitlement or amount identity", + } + ) + gains = p.capital_gains.to_numpy(dtype=float) + cgt = {} + for name, mask in {"all_positive": gains > 0, "at_least_5m": gains >= 5e6}.items(): + n = int(mask.sum()) + cgt[name] = ( + {"rows": "fewer_than_3", "suppressed": True} + if 0 < n < 3 + else { + "rows": n, + "person_mass": float(pw[mask].sum()), + "weighted_gains_total": float(np.dot(pw[mask], gains[mask])), + } + ) + order = np.argsort(h.household_id.to_numpy()) + identity = hashlib.sha256( + np.asarray(h.household_id.to_numpy()[order], dtype=" abs(row["control"]["relative_error"]) + 1e-12 + ] + within = { + name: sum(abs(row[name]["relative_error"]) <= 0.1 for row in rows) + for name in ["control", "treatment"] + } + regression_summary = { + "comparison": "Absolute relative error; equality tolerance 1e-12", + "improved_count": len(improved), + "regressed_count": len(regressed), + "unchanged_count": len(rows) - len(improved) - len(regressed), + "improved_targets": improved, + "regressed_targets": regressed, + "within_10pct_count": within, + "crossed_outside_10pct": [ + row["binding"]["name"] + for row in rows + if abs(row["control"]["relative_error"]) + <= 0.1 + < abs(row["treatment"]["relative_error"]) + ], + "crossed_inside_10pct": [ + row["binding"]["name"] + for row in rows + if abs(row["treatment"]["relative_error"]) + <= 0.1 + < abs(row["control"]["relative_error"]) + ], + } + return { + "schema_version": 1, + "receipt_kind": "uk_publication_spi_paired_experiment", + "status": "Matched genuine runs; fit and release verdicts remain separate", + "comparison_contract": { + key: value + for key, value in contract.items() + if not key.endswith("_file") and key != "chronicle_path" + }, + "contract_checks": equalities, + "raw_source_verification": raw, + "protected_publication_files": protected, + "target_count": len(rows), + "compiled_reference_count": a["build"]["register"]["compiled_count"], + "regression_summary": regression_summary, + "measure_exclusion_count": len(a["build"]["measure_exclusions"]), + "shared_target_loss_basis": a["target_loss_basis"], + "shared_measure_exclusions": a["build"]["measure_exclusions"], + "runs": { + "control": run_summary(control, checked["control"], quality["control"]), + "treatment": run_summary( + treatment, checked["treatment"], quality["treatment"] + ), + }, + "generated_support_comparison": source_quality_comparison( + quality["control"], quality["treatment"] + ), + "objective_attribution": { + "control_loss": a["final_loss"], + "treatment_loss": b["final_loss"], + "loss_reduction": delta, + "relative_reduction": delta / a["final_loss"], + "families": families, + }, + "key_targets": {key: indexed[key] for key in KEY_TARGETS}, + "targets": rows, + "decision_assessment": { + "A22_A23": { + "changed": False, + "rates": { + "tax_free_childcare": 0.88, + "targeted_childcare": 0.597, + "extended_childcare": 0.6054, + "universal_childcare": 0.4539, + }, + "interpretation": "National fit at these fixed rates does not re-estimate take-up or verify the historical eligible-base ceiling; no new ceiling-rate decision.", + }, + "private_pension_deferral": { + "changed": False, + "control_relative_error": private["control"]["relative_error"], + "treatment_relative_error": private["treatment"]["relative_error"], + "control_stale": private["binding"]["name"] + in control["gates"]["gates"]["uk_target_fit"]["details"][ + "stale_exclusions" + ], + "treatment_stale": private["binding"]["name"] + in treatment["gates"]["gates"]["uk_target_fit"]["details"][ + "stale_exclusions" + ], + "interpretation": "Staleness is reported as a gate failure; this receipt does not remove or renew the protected entry.", + }, + }, + "limitations": [ + "National-only single-seed comparison; no local-area accuracy claim.", + "The age16 guard does not protect all qualifying FRS children aged16–19.", + "Six SPI flows remain nominal and pension receipt is a proxy, not an entitlement identity.", + "No calibrated file is exported if native terminal gates refuse.", + "This is not the absent shared quality/dashboard schema and not a release certificate.", + ], + } + + +def main(): + if not __debug__: + raise RuntimeError( + "Run without Python optimization so contract assertions remain enabled" + ) + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__) + parser.add_argument("--repo", required=True, type=Path) + parser.add_argument("--control", type=Path) + parser.add_argument("--treatment", type=Path) + parser.add_argument("--source-only", type=Path) + parser.add_argument("--contract", type=Path) + parser.add_argument("--protected-manifest", type=Path) + parser.add_argument("--output", required=True, type=Path) + args = parser.parse_args() + assert not args.output.resolve().is_relative_to(args.repo.resolve()), ( + "Keep repository clean: write only intermediate output outside it" + ) + if args.source_only: + result = source_quality(args.source_only) + else: + assert ( + args.control + and args.treatment + and args.contract + and args.protected_manifest + ) + contract = read(args.contract) + result = paired_receipt( + read_run(args.control), + read_run(args.treatment), + args.repo, + contract, + args.protected_manifest, + ) + args.output.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True) + args.output.write_text(json.dumps(result, indent=2, allow_nan=False) + "\n") + print( + json.dumps( + { + "output": str(args.output), + "sha256": file_sha(args.output), + "target_count": result.get("target_count"), + "status": "written", + } + ) + ) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/experiments/receipts/uk-publication-spi-comparison.json b/experiments/receipts/uk-publication-spi-comparison.json new file mode 100644 index 000000000..984ccc5dc --- /dev/null +++ b/experiments/receipts/uk-publication-spi-comparison.json @@ -0,0 +1,38148 @@ +{ + "schema_version": 1, + "receipt_kind": "uk_publication_spi_paired_experiment", + "status": "Matched genuine runs; fit and release verdicts remain separate", + "comparison_contract": { + "publication_base": "d43b4203c6ebe10e062cb3ef3034e66731ea055d", + "original_spi_head": "194111af32b265b226dcbefe33cc735f362461dc", + "comparison_scope": "full national spine; control and treatment differ only in reviewed SPI code/specification; downstream generated support differences are measured", + "build_period": 2024, + "calibration_year": 2025, + "solver": { + "method": "adam", + "epochs": 1500, + "learning_rate": 0.02, + "target_weight_rule": "family_equal", + "seed": 0, + "max_weight_ratio": 10 + }, + "date_policy": "Record actual same-day gate evaluation date, preserve publication expiry settings.", + "gate_policy": "No gate, target, measure exclusion, take-up, clock, or CGT source changes in matched pair.", + "input_weight_policy": "Same raw FRS inputs/sample/design weights and generation seeds; final generated support and prior weights may respond to changed SPI incomes and must be compared explicitly.", + "microcosm-publication-control_lock_sha256": "ca9305fcebb5854d8d8369eb10fd134c918da7a79ab90f21c932c946b35165e5", + "microcosm_lock_sha256": "ca9305fcebb5854d8d8369eb10fd134c918da7a79ab90f21c932c946b35165e5", + "consumer_facts.jsonl_sha256": "6ae49d7d7ab297df25a0b9bfe2d6776827c672d284fbb360957fe8337089549f", + "manifest.json_sha256": "dcda51d6496aea67f768a284e7955c7520e7c8b91e2bed3569f247567b7153f0", + "treatment_source_commit": "fc49b48200e1e15fe35bb4e15b948992bf03c28d", + "control_run": "pub879-control", + "treatment_run": "pub879-spi", + "actual_compiled_control_target_count": 371 + }, + "contract_checks": { + "options": { + "equal": true, + "sha256": "71699aef1f5cc0935d7ce534f46ec017081694e3f54860a392eeec309a150bd7" + }, + "target_registry": { + 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"dwp/uc_payment_dist/SINGLE_annual_payment_7_200_to_8_400@2025", + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/SINGLE_annual_payment_10_800_to_12_000@2025", + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/LONE_PARENT_annual_payment_22_800_to_24_000@2025", + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/LONE_PARENT_annual_payment_2_400_to_3_600@2025", + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/LONE_PARENT_annual_payment_25_200_to_26_400@2025", + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/LONE_PARENT_annual_payment_26_400_to_27_600@2025", + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/LONE_PARENT_annual_payment_3_600_to_4_800@2025", + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/LONE_PARENT_annual_payment_8_400_to_9_600@2025", + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_13_200_to_14_400@2025", + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_14_400_to_15_600@2025", + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_15_600_to_16_800@2025", + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_16_800_to_18_000@2025", + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_19_200_to_20_400@2025", + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_20_400_to_21_600@2025", + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_22_800_to_24_000@2025", + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_25_200_to_26_400@2025", + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_27_600_to_28_800@2025", + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_3_600_to_4_800@2025", + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_6_000_to_7_200@2025", + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_7_200_to_8_400@2025", + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_8_400_to_9_600@2025", + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_10_800_to_12_000@2025", + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN_annual_payment_12_000_to_13_200@2025", + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN_annual_payment_13_200_to_14_400@2025", + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN_annual_payment_14_400_to_15_600@2025", + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN_annual_payment_15_600_to_16_800@2025", + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN_annual_payment_22_800_to_24_000@2025", + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN_annual_payment_24_000_to_25_200@2025", + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN_annual_payment_3_600_to_4_800@2025", + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN_annual_payment_6_000_to_7_200@2025", + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN_annual_payment_9_600_to_10_800@2025", + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN_annual_payment_10_800_to_12_000@2025", + "dwp.uc.scotland_households_child_under_1@2025", + "dwp.uc.two_child_limit.households_3_children@2025", + "dwp.uc.two_child_limit.children_in_3_children_households@2025", + "dwp.uc.two_child_limit.households_5_children@2025", + "dwp.uc.two_child_limit.children_in_5_children_households@2025", + "dwp.uc.two_child_limit.children_in_6_plus_children_households@2025", + "ons.population.age_10_19_by_region@2025", + "ons.population.age_30_39_by_region@2025", + "ons.population.age_40_49_by_region@2025", + "ons.population.age_50_59_by_region@2025", + "ons.population.age_60_69_by_region@2025", + "ons.population.age_70_79_by_region@2025", + "ons.population.age_80_89_by_region@2025", + "ons.population.female_0_4@2025", + "ons.population.female_10_14@2025", + "ons.population.female_15_19@2025", + "ons.population.female_20_24@2025", + "ons.population.female_30_34@2025", + "ons.population.female_35_39@2025", + "ons.population.female_45_49@2025", + "ons.population.female_55_59@2025", + "ons.population.female_60_64@2025", + "ons.population.female_65_69@2025", + "ons.population.female_75_79@2025", + "ons.population.female_80_84@2025", + "ons.population.male_10_14@2025", + "ons.population.male_30_34@2025", + "ons.population.male_35_39@2025", + "ons.population.male_40_44@2025", + "ons.population.male_45_49@2025", + "ons.population.male_55_59@2025", + "ons.population.male_60_64@2025", + "ons.population.male_65_69@2025", + "ons.population.male_85_89@2025", + "ons.population.male_90_plus@2025", + "ons.population.scotland_children_under_16@2025", + "ons.household_composition.couple_no_children_households@2025", + "ons.household_composition.couple_under_3_children_households@2025", + "ons.household_composition.couple_3_plus_children_households@2025", + "ons.household_composition.couple_non_dependent_children_only_households@2025", + "ons.household_composition.lone_parent_dependent_children_households@2025", + "voa.council_tax_stock.band_a@2025", + "scotgov.council_tax_stock.band_a@2025", + "scotgov.council_tax_stock.band_c@2025", + "scotgov.council_tax_stock.band_d@2025", + "voa.council_tax_stock.band_e@2025", + "scotgov.council_tax_stock.band_e@2025", + "voa.council_tax_stock.band_f@2025", + "scotgov.council_tax_stock.band_f@2025", + "voa.council_tax_stock.band_g@2025", + "scotgov.council_tax_stock.band_g@2025", + "voa.council_tax_stock.band_h@2025", + "scotgov.council_tax_stock.band_h@2025", + "scotgov.council_tax_stock.total@2025", + "scotgov.scottish_child_payment_spending@2025", + "ons.land.household_land_value@2025", + "slc.repayments.england_total_higher_education@2025", + "slc.borrowers.plan_2_above_threshold@2025", + "slc.borrowers.plan_2_liable@2025", + "slc.borrowers.plan_5_above_threshold@2025", + "slc.support.parents_learning_allowance_recipients@2025", + "slc.support.adult_dependants_grant_recipients@2025", + "hmrc.tfc.government_top_up@2025", + "hmrc.tfc.children_with_used_accounts@2025", + "dfe.funded_childcare.working_parent_children_2_to_4@2025", + "dft.bus_fare_receipts.england@2025" + ], + "within_10pct_count": { + "control": 334, + "treatment": 338 + }, + "crossed_outside_10pct": [ + "obr.state_pension@2025", + "hmrc/self_employment_income_income_band_30_000_to_40_000@2025", + "hmrc/private_pension_income_count_income_band_20_000_to_30_000@2025", + "hmrc/state_pension_income_band_70_000_to_100_000@2025", + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_27_600_to_28_800@2025" + ], + "crossed_inside_10pct": [ + "hmrc/employment_income_count_income_band_100_000_to_150_000@2025", + "hmrc/employment_income_count_income_band_30_000_to_40_000@2025", + "hmrc/self_employment_income_income_band_70_000_to_100_000@2025", + "hmrc/private_pension_income_income_band_15_000_to_20_000@2025", + "hmrc/private_pension_income_count_income_band_70_000_to_100_000@2025", + "hmrc/state_pension_income_band_15_000_to_20_000@2025", + "hmrc/state_pension_count_income_band_50_000_to_70_000@2025", + "voa.council_tax_stock.band_d@2025", + "ons.savings_interest_income@2025" + ] + }, + "measure_exclusion_count": 44, + "shared_target_loss_basis": { + "formula": "weighted_mean(min(abs((estimate - target) / scale), cap))", + "cap": 10.0, + "target_count": 371, + "total_target_weight": 1.0, + "weight_kind": "provided", + "scale_kind": "default_target", + "hash_algorithm": "sha256_utf8len32_f64be_v1", + "sha256": "53e573bf0cbfb320f6b25af0c8513b88a086e8a61061bfb14e254c9a22ed96a2" + }, + "shared_measure_exclusions": { + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_26_400_to_27_600": { + "reason": "One-sided undershoot: the annual-payment band composition inside the UC caseload is unreachable under the spine's current UC support (the #623-carried catalogue); every cell in this class undershoots on the rebind packet and two sit at -100% with final estimate 0.0. The payment distribution needs element/taper composition support beyond the would_claim_uc take-up lever.", + "tracking": "uk-data#452", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/LONE_PARENT_annual_payment_10_800_to_12_000": { + "reason": "One-sided undershoot: the annual-payment band composition inside the UC caseload is unreachable under the spine's current UC support (the #623-carried catalogue); every cell in this class undershoots on the rebind packet and two sit at -100% with final estimate 0.0. The payment distribution needs element/taper composition support beyond the would_claim_uc take-up lever.", + "tracking": "uk-data#452", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/LONE_PARENT_annual_payment_12_000_to_13_200": { + "reason": "One-sided undershoot: the annual-payment band composition inside the UC caseload is unreachable under the spine's current UC support (the #623-carried catalogue); every cell in this class undershoots on the rebind packet and two sit at -100% with final estimate 0.0. The payment distribution needs element/taper composition support beyond the would_claim_uc take-up lever.", + "tracking": "uk-data#452", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/LONE_PARENT_annual_payment_13_200_to_14_400": { + "reason": "One-sided undershoot: the annual-payment band composition inside the UC caseload is unreachable under the spine's current UC support (the #623-carried catalogue); every cell in this class undershoots on the rebind packet and two sit at -100% with final estimate 0.0. The payment distribution needs element/taper composition support beyond the would_claim_uc take-up lever.", + "tracking": "uk-data#452", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/LONE_PARENT_annual_payment_14_400_to_15_600": { + "reason": "One-sided undershoot: the annual-payment band composition inside the UC caseload is unreachable under the spine's current UC support (the #623-carried catalogue); every cell in this class undershoots on the rebind packet and two sit at -100% with final estimate 0.0. The payment distribution needs element/taper composition support beyond the would_claim_uc take-up lever.", + "tracking": "uk-data#452", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/LONE_PARENT_annual_payment_15_600_to_16_800": { + "reason": "One-sided undershoot: the annual-payment band composition inside the UC caseload is unreachable under the spine's current UC support (the #623-carried catalogue); every cell in this class undershoots on the rebind packet and two sit at -100% with final estimate 0.0. The payment distribution needs element/taper composition support beyond the would_claim_uc take-up lever.", + "tracking": "uk-data#452", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/LONE_PARENT_annual_payment_16_800_to_18_000": { + "reason": "One-sided undershoot: the annual-payment band composition inside the UC caseload is unreachable under the spine's current UC support (the #623-carried catalogue); every cell in this class undershoots on the rebind packet and two sit at -100% with final estimate 0.0. The payment distribution needs element/taper composition support beyond the would_claim_uc take-up lever.", + "tracking": "uk-data#452", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/LONE_PARENT_annual_payment_18_000_to_19_200": { + "reason": "One-sided undershoot: the annual-payment band composition inside the UC caseload is unreachable under the spine's current UC support (the #623-carried catalogue); every cell in this class undershoots on the rebind packet and two sit at -100% with final estimate 0.0. The payment distribution needs element/taper composition support beyond the would_claim_uc take-up lever.", + "tracking": "uk-data#452", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/LONE_PARENT_annual_payment_19_200_to_20_400": { + "reason": "One-sided undershoot: the annual-payment band composition inside the UC caseload is unreachable under the spine's current UC support (the #623-carried catalogue); every cell in this class undershoots on the rebind packet and two sit at -100% with final estimate 0.0. The payment distribution needs element/taper composition support beyond the would_claim_uc take-up lever.", + "tracking": "uk-data#452", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/LONE_PARENT_annual_payment_21_600_to_22_800": { + "reason": "One-sided undershoot: the annual-payment band composition inside the UC caseload is unreachable under the spine's current UC support (the #623-carried catalogue); every cell in this class undershoots on the rebind packet and two sit at -100% with final estimate 0.0. The payment distribution needs element/taper composition support beyond the would_claim_uc take-up lever.", + "tracking": "uk-data#452", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/SINGLE_annual_payment_13_200_to_14_400": { + "reason": "One-sided undershoot: the annual-payment band composition inside the UC caseload is unreachable under the spine's current UC support (the #623-carried catalogue); every cell in this class undershoots on the rebind packet and two sit at -100% with final estimate 0.0. The payment distribution needs element/taper composition support beyond the would_claim_uc take-up lever.", + "tracking": "uk-data#452", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/SINGLE_annual_payment_14_400_to_15_600": { + "reason": "One-sided undershoot: the annual-payment band composition inside the UC caseload is unreachable under the spine's current UC support (the #623-carried catalogue); every cell in this class undershoots on the rebind packet and two sit at -100% with final estimate 0.0. The payment distribution needs element/taper composition support beyond the would_claim_uc take-up lever.", + "tracking": "uk-data#452", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/SINGLE_annual_payment_21_600_to_22_800": { + "reason": "One-sided undershoot: the annual-payment band composition inside the UC caseload is unreachable under the spine's current UC support (the #623-carried catalogue); every cell in this class undershoots on the rebind packet and two sit at -100% with final estimate 0.0. The payment distribution needs element/taper composition support beyond the would_claim_uc take-up lever.", + "tracking": "uk-data#452", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/SINGLE_annual_payment_27_600_to_28_800": { + "reason": "One-sided undershoot: the annual-payment band composition inside the UC caseload is unreachable under the spine's current UC support (the #623-carried catalogue); every cell in this class undershoots on the rebind packet and two sit at -100% with final estimate 0.0. The payment distribution needs element/taper composition support beyond the would_claim_uc take-up lever.", + "tracking": "uk-data#452", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/SINGLE_annual_payment_8_400_to_9_600": { + "reason": "One-sided undershoot: the annual-payment band composition inside the UC caseload is unreachable under the spine's current UC support (the #623-carried catalogue); every cell in this class undershoots on the rebind packet and two sit at -100% with final estimate 0.0. The payment distribution needs element/taper composition support beyond the would_claim_uc take-up lever.", + "tracking": "uk-data#452", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/SINGLE_annual_payment_9_600_to_10_800": { + "reason": "One-sided undershoot: the annual-payment band composition inside the UC caseload is unreachable under the spine's current UC support (the #623-carried catalogue); every cell in this class undershoots on the rebind packet and two sit at -100% with final estimate 0.0. The payment distribution needs element/taper composition support beyond the would_claim_uc take-up lever.", + "tracking": "uk-data#452", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "hmrc.salary_sacrifice.it_relief_additional_rate": { + "reason": "The frame adapter reads only a precomputed slash-named delta column; no artifact ships a live counterfactual route.", + "tracking": "microcosm#623", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the #743-audit adjudication, issue comment 5413502559)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-25", + "expires_on": "2026-11-25", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "hmrc.salary_sacrifice.it_relief_basic_rate": { + "reason": "The frame adapter reads only a precomputed slash-named delta column; no artifact ships a live counterfactual route.", + "tracking": "microcosm#623", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the #743-audit adjudication, issue comment 5413502559)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-25", + "expires_on": "2026-11-25", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "hmrc.salary_sacrifice.it_relief_higher_rate": { + "reason": "The frame adapter reads only a precomputed slash-named delta column; no artifact ships a live counterfactual route.", + "tracking": "microcosm#623", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the #743-audit adjudication, issue comment 5413502559)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-25", + "expires_on": "2026-11-25", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "hmrc.salary_sacrifice.nics_relief_employee": { + "reason": "The frame adapter reads only a precomputed slash-named delta column; no artifact ships a live counterfactual route.", + "tracking": "microcosm#623", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the #743-audit adjudication, issue comment 5413502559)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-25", + "expires_on": "2026-11-25", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "hmrc.salary_sacrifice.nics_relief_employer": { + "reason": "The frame adapter reads only a precomputed slash-named delta column; no artifact ships a live counterfactual route.", + "tracking": "microcosm#623", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the #743-audit adjudication, issue comment 5413502559)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-25", + "expires_on": "2026-11-25", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "hmrc/dividend_income_count_income_band_1_000_000_to_inf": { + "reason": "Zero-support channel on total income (ITA 2007 s.23, which excludes capital gains): zero in-band carrier records with total income above 1m, under both the SPI assessable-income concept and the component-sum proxy, measured identically on spine-i and spine-j (microcosm#807, receipts uk-candidate-eval out/excluded_cell_support_spine_{i,j}.json). The spine carries capital gains to 20.4m and thousands of records above 1m wealth; the premise is total-income support, never a wealth or gains cap, and a zero-support cell cannot be reached by reweighting.", + "tracking": "microcosm#757", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411); reason revised 2026-08-28 per microcosm#807 (the spine-i/j excluded-cell support re-measurement)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "hmrc/dividend_income_income_band_1_000_000_to_inf": { + "reason": "Zero-support channel on total income (ITA 2007 s.23, which excludes capital gains): zero in-band carrier records with total income above 1m, under both the SPI assessable-income concept and the component-sum proxy, measured identically on spine-i and spine-j (microcosm#807, receipts uk-candidate-eval out/excluded_cell_support_spine_{i,j}.json). The spine carries capital gains to 20.4m and thousands of records above 1m wealth; the premise is total-income support, never a wealth or gains cap, and a zero-support cell cannot be reached by reweighting.", + "tracking": "microcosm#757", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411); reason revised 2026-08-28 per microcosm#807 (the spine-i/j excluded-cell support re-measurement)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "hmrc/dividend_income_income_band_500_000_to_1_000_000": { + "reason": "Sparse cell support: 6 in-band carrier records under the SPI assessable-income concept and 10 under the component-sum proxy (6,914 weighted carriers), measured identically on spine-i and spine-j (microcosm#807) - too few for the solver to hit the published value without distorting neighbouring cells. One of the three thin 500k-1m cells retained when the microcosm#807 revision lifted the three mid-band cells whose measured support was in the hundreds; re-measure on the next spine build before renewal.", + "tracking": "microcosm#757", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411); reason revised 2026-08-28 per microcosm#807 (the spine-i/j excluded-cell support re-measurement)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "hmrc/employment_income_count_income_band_1_000_000_to_inf": { + "reason": "Zero-support channel on total income (ITA 2007 s.23, which excludes capital gains): zero in-band carrier records with total income above 1m, under both the SPI assessable-income concept and the component-sum proxy, measured identically on spine-i and spine-j (microcosm#807, receipts uk-candidate-eval out/excluded_cell_support_spine_{i,j}.json). The spine carries capital gains to 20.4m and thousands of records above 1m wealth; the premise is total-income support, never a wealth or gains cap, and a zero-support cell cannot be reached by reweighting.", + "tracking": "microcosm#757", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411); reason revised 2026-08-28 per microcosm#807 (the spine-i/j excluded-cell support re-measurement)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "hmrc/employment_income_income_band_1_000_000_to_inf": { + "reason": "Zero-support channel on total income (ITA 2007 s.23, which excludes capital gains): zero in-band carrier records with total income above 1m, under both the SPI assessable-income concept and the component-sum proxy, measured identically on spine-i and spine-j (microcosm#807, receipts uk-candidate-eval out/excluded_cell_support_spine_{i,j}.json). The spine carries capital gains to 20.4m and thousands of records above 1m wealth; the premise is total-income support, never a wealth or gains cap, and a zero-support cell cannot be reached by reweighting.", + "tracking": "microcosm#757", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411); reason revised 2026-08-28 per microcosm#807 (the spine-i/j excluded-cell support re-measurement)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "hmrc/private_pension_income_count_income_band_1_000_000_to_inf": { + "reason": "Zero-support channel on total income (ITA 2007 s.23, which excludes capital gains): zero in-band carrier records with total income above 1m, under both the SPI assessable-income concept and the component-sum proxy, measured identically on spine-i and spine-j (microcosm#807, receipts uk-candidate-eval out/excluded_cell_support_spine_{i,j}.json). The spine carries capital gains to 20.4m and thousands of records above 1m wealth; the premise is total-income support, never a wealth or gains cap, and a zero-support cell cannot be reached by reweighting.", + "tracking": "microcosm#757", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411); reason revised 2026-08-28 per microcosm#807 (the spine-i/j excluded-cell support re-measurement)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "hmrc/private_pension_income_income_band_1_000_000_to_inf": { + "reason": "Zero-support channel on total income (ITA 2007 s.23, which excludes capital gains): zero in-band carrier records with total income above 1m, under both the SPI assessable-income concept and the component-sum proxy, measured identically on spine-i and spine-j (microcosm#807, receipts uk-candidate-eval out/excluded_cell_support_spine_{i,j}.json). The spine carries capital gains to 20.4m and thousands of records above 1m wealth; the premise is total-income support, never a wealth or gains cap, and a zero-support cell cannot be reached by reweighting.", + "tracking": "microcosm#757", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411); reason revised 2026-08-28 per microcosm#807 (the spine-i/j excluded-cell support re-measurement)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "hmrc/property_income_count_income_band_1_000_000_to_inf": { + "reason": "Zero-support channel on total income (ITA 2007 s.23, which excludes capital gains): zero in-band carrier records with total income above 1m, under both the SPI assessable-income concept and the component-sum proxy, measured identically on spine-i and spine-j (microcosm#807, receipts uk-candidate-eval out/excluded_cell_support_spine_{i,j}.json). The spine carries capital gains to 20.4m and thousands of records above 1m wealth; the premise is total-income support, never a wealth or gains cap, and a zero-support cell cannot be reached by reweighting.", + "tracking": "microcosm#757", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411); reason revised 2026-08-28 per microcosm#807 (the spine-i/j excluded-cell support re-measurement)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "hmrc/property_income_count_income_band_500_000_to_1_000_000": { + "reason": "Sparse cell support: 2 in-band carrier records under the SPI assessable-income concept and 8 under the component-sum proxy (3,430 weighted carriers), measured identically on spine-i and spine-j (microcosm#807) - too few for the solver to hit the published value without distorting neighbouring cells. One of the three thin 500k-1m cells retained when the microcosm#807 revision lifted the three mid-band cells whose measured support was in the hundreds; re-measure on the next spine build before renewal.", + "tracking": "microcosm#757", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411); reason revised 2026-08-28 per microcosm#807 (the spine-i/j excluded-cell support re-measurement)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "hmrc/self_employment_income_count_income_band_1_000_000_to_inf": { + "reason": "Zero-support channel on total income (ITA 2007 s.23, which excludes capital gains): 0 in-band carrier records with total income above 1m under the SPI assessable-income concept and 2 under the component-sum proxy, measured identically on spine-i and spine-j (microcosm#807, receipts uk-candidate-eval out/excluded_cell_support_spine_{i,j}.json). The spine carries capital gains to 20.4m and thousands of records above 1m wealth; the premise is total-income support, never a wealth or gains cap, and a zero-support cell cannot be reached by reweighting.", + "tracking": "microcosm#757", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411); reason revised 2026-08-28 per microcosm#807 (the spine-i/j excluded-cell support re-measurement)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "hmrc/self_employment_income_count_income_band_500_000_to_1_000_000": { + "reason": "Sparse cell support: 4 in-band carrier records under the SPI assessable-income concept and 16 under the component-sum proxy (8,080 weighted carriers), measured identically on spine-i and spine-j (microcosm#807) - too few for the solver to hit the published value without distorting neighbouring cells. One of the three thin 500k-1m cells retained when the microcosm#807 revision lifted the three mid-band cells whose measured support was in the hundreds; re-measure on the next spine build before renewal.", + "tracking": "microcosm#757", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411); reason revised 2026-08-28 per microcosm#807 (the spine-i/j excluded-cell support re-measurement)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "hmrc/self_employment_income_income_band_1_000_000_to_inf": { + "reason": "Zero-support channel on total income (ITA 2007 s.23, which excludes capital gains): 0 in-band carrier records with total income above 1m under the SPI assessable-income concept and 2 under the component-sum proxy, measured identically on spine-i and spine-j (microcosm#807, receipts uk-candidate-eval out/excluded_cell_support_spine_{i,j}.json). The spine carries capital gains to 20.4m and thousands of records above 1m wealth; the premise is total-income support, never a wealth or gains cap, and a zero-support cell cannot be reached by reweighting.", + "tracking": "microcosm#757", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411); reason revised 2026-08-28 per microcosm#807 (the spine-i/j excluded-cell support re-measurement)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "hmrc/state_pension_count_income_band_1_000_000_to_inf": { + "reason": "Zero-support channel on total income (ITA 2007 s.23, which excludes capital gains): zero in-band carrier records with total income above 1m, under both the SPI assessable-income concept and the component-sum proxy, measured identically on spine-i and spine-j (microcosm#807, receipts uk-candidate-eval out/excluded_cell_support_spine_{i,j}.json). The spine carries capital gains to 20.4m and thousands of records above 1m wealth; the premise is total-income support, never a wealth or gains cap, and a zero-support cell cannot be reached by reweighting.", + "tracking": "microcosm#757", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411); reason revised 2026-08-28 per microcosm#807 (the spine-i/j excluded-cell support re-measurement)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "hmrc/state_pension_income_band_1_000_000_to_inf": { + "reason": "Zero-support channel on total income (ITA 2007 s.23, which excludes capital gains): zero in-band carrier records with total income above 1m, under both the SPI assessable-income concept and the component-sum proxy, measured identically on spine-i and spine-j (microcosm#807, receipts uk-candidate-eval out/excluded_cell_support_spine_{i,j}.json). The spine carries capital gains to 20.4m and thousands of records above 1m wealth; the premise is total-income support, never a wealth or gains cap, and a zero-support cell cannot be reached by reweighting.", + "tracking": "microcosm#757", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411); reason revised 2026-08-28 per microcosm#807 (the spine-i/j excluded-cell support re-measurement)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "obr.fuel_duties": { + "reason": "Universe scope: the OBR fact is all-road-users receipts (including freight and business mileage) against a household frame, compounded by LCFS diary under-capture at 37% of implied litres; the binding is verified correct and the gap is scope, not measurement. The household-incidence-vs-total-receipts ledger retarget question is pending chronicle-side adjudication.", + "tracking": "microcosm#757", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "obr.universal_credit_in_cap": { + "reason": "The OBR welfare-cap boundary (UC in-cap vs outside-cap) is not measurable on the frame: the model cannot attribute UC spend to the cap concept, so the pair splits one well-measured total into two mis-attributed halves (-96.8% / +286.3% on the rebind packet while total UC spend is within band of the OBR anchor).", + "tracking": "microcosm#757", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "obr.universal_credit_outside_cap": { + "reason": "The OBR welfare-cap boundary (UC in-cap vs outside-cap) is not measurable on the frame: the model cannot attribute UC spend to the cap concept, so the pair splits one well-measured total into two mis-attributed halves (-96.8% / +286.3% on the rebind packet while total UC spend is within band of the OBR anchor).", + "tracking": "microcosm#757", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "ons.household_composition.lone_parent_non_dependent_children_households": { + "reason": "The ONS household-composition split requires a relationship-to-head frame column the spine does not carry; this cell fits numerically (-0.03% on the rebind packet) but measures the wrong concept - the solver holds it by stuffing misclassified households into the sibling categories, so it must unbind together with them.", + "tracking": "microcosm#791", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "ons.household_composition.multi_family_households": { + "reason": "The ONS household-composition split requires a relationship-to-head frame column the spine does not carry; without it multi-family, unrelated-adult, and lone-parent-with-non-dependent-children households are indistinguishable and the categories bleed into each other (multi_family +1618% on the rebind packet).", + "tracking": "microcosm#791", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "ons.household_composition.unrelated_adult_households": { + "reason": "The ONS household-composition split requires a relationship-to-head frame column the spine does not carry; without it multi-family, unrelated-adult, and lone-parent-with-non-dependent-children households are indistinguishable and the categories bleed into each other (multi_family +1618% on the rebind packet).", + "tracking": "microcosm#791", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "slc.borrowers.plan_5_liable": { + "reason": "Structural under-support: the E8 PLAN_5 top-up saturates the eligible pool (rate 1.0, final England 43,055 vs 230,000 stock); the liable count is bound by frame composition, not by weighting (-81.3% on the rebind packet).", + "tracking": "microcosm#757", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "slc.repayments.england_plan_5": { + "reason": "Structural under-support: the E8 PLAN_5 top-up saturates the eligible pool (rate 1.0), so the plan-5 repayment mass is bound by frame composition, not by weighting (-84.4% on the rebind packet).", + "tracking": "microcosm#757", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + }, + "slc.repayments.england_postgraduate": { + "reason": "Zero-support channel: no spine record carries postgraduate-plan repayments (-100%, final estimate 0.0 on the rebind packet); the student-loans stage assigns plans from the SLC liable-stocks resource and the postgraduate stock finds no eligible carriers at spine grain.", + "tracking": "microcosm#757", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#757 (the uk_target_fit dispositions, issue comment 5427936411)", + "approved_on": "2026-08-26", + "expires_on": "2026-11-26", + "evaluated_on": "2026-09-07" + } + }, + "runs": { + "control": { + "run_name": "pub879-control", + "code_pin": "d43b4203c6ebe10e062cb3ef3034e66731ea055d", + "lock_sha256": "ca9305fcebb5854d8d8369eb10fd134c918da7a79ab90f21c932c946b35165e5", + "target_binding_metadata_sha256": "2f9def91e85acaba02b8067ba1c71619154f6a6d8dc1c55240bce22009cc0e29", + "verified_loss_contribution_sum": 0.0234644619515465, + "file_hashes": { + "spine.h5": "2e68a13fc066c4b0b8b240361922596f9c268275e91223a49f66e3c8442ab157", + "spine.build.json": "d4894a6d1e609893b1db2c610737a3373912b6584db72715f9889495e75baf31", + "spine.spine_gates.json": "2afc537ce898e5a2e33fcb65a0a033f28670915d3c353d9a8f114a786917b91e", + "calibration_diagnostics.json": "b3abb7a81ea792510ac6267224b1cb8cd21cea36b165ae23cf017f85705ded05", + "calibration_gates.json": "860cdb4a79424eeb0061187f3bb8826ee8f3c355a5d0867f65d6c34f98d67073", + "calibration_invocation.json": "f1f2e803d038c0e6fdfb2c0fdbdd9bb24ea2523af9b8b8c2b8fb6c6c072d7473", + "uc_support.json": "89aa909e2effb3afbe9a373f9ac2426382b4f95fec1a908736aef089c5606c9f" + }, + "runtime": { + "python": "3.13.14", + "policyengine-core": "3.31.0", + "policyengine-uk": "2.94.0", + "microcosm-frame": "0.1.0", + "microcosm-calibrate": "0.1.0", + "microcosm-build": "0.1.0", + "microcosm-data": "0.1.0" + }, + "calibration_invocation": { + "code_pin": "d43b4203c6ebe10e062cb3ef3034e66731ea055d", + "started_at": "2026-09-07T09:14:22.021820+00:00", + "signing_mode": "ephemeral local developer key; not a production certificate", + "input_sha256_before": "2e68a13fc066c4b0b8b240361922596f9c268275e91223a49f66e3c8442ab157", + "finished_at": "2026-09-07T09:18:31.173975+00:00", + "exit_code": 1, + "input_sha256_after": "2e68a13fc066c4b0b8b240361922596f9c268275e91223a49f66e3c8442ab157" + }, + "metrics": { + 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"details": { + "activated": 371, + "matrix": 371, + "resolved": 371 + }, + "failures": [], + "gate": "calibration_reference_coverage", + "phase": "terminal", + "reason": null, + "status": "passed" + }, + "uk_target_fit": { + "criticality": "release_blocking", + "details": { + "candidate_name": "microcosm_uk_2024", + "dormant_exclusions": [], + "exclusions_evaluated_on": "2026-09-07", + "expired_exclusions": [], + "failing_targets": { + "hmrc/state_pension_income_band_20_000_to_30_000@2025": 0.2532316204994738, + "hmrc/state_pension_income_band_50_000_to_70_000@2025": 0.34562715143050576 + }, + "max_abs_relative_error": 0.25, + "premature_exclusions": [], + "reviewed_exclusions": { + "dwp.uc.households_children_1@2025": { + "adjudication": "microcosm#796", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "expires_on": "2026-09-30", + "reason": "Same UC with-children support residual as dwp.uc.households_single_with_children@2025: honest grain after the #813 re-bind, unreachable by take-up (probes 0.55/0.70/0.85), caused by the wealth re-draw over-spread past the 16k countable-capital threshold (spine 38.3% vs WAS donor 28.6%, #809 receipts); owned by #145. Deferred one month to unblock the first certified cut.", + "relative_error": -0.28923719834715816 + }, + "dwp.uc.households_children_2@2025": { + "adjudication": "microcosm#796", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "expires_on": "2026-09-30", + "reason": "Same UC with-children support residual as dwp.uc.households_single_with_children@2025: honest grain after the #813 re-bind, unreachable by take-up (probes 0.55/0.70/0.85), caused by the wealth re-draw over-spread past the 16k countable-capital threshold (spine 38.3% vs WAS donor 28.6%, #809 receipts); owned by #145. Deferred one month to unblock the first certified cut.", + "relative_error": -0.3887150271557428 + }, + "dwp.uc.households_children_5_or_more@2025": { + "adjudication": "microcosm#796", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "expires_on": "2026-09-30", + "reason": "Same UC with-children support residual as dwp.uc.households_single_with_children@2025: honest grain after the #813 re-bind, unreachable by take-up (probes 0.55/0.70/0.85), caused by the wealth re-draw over-spread past the 16k countable-capital threshold (spine 38.3% vs WAS donor 28.6%, #809 receipts); owned by #145. Deferred one month to unblock the first certified cut.", + "relative_error": -0.2859968269407842 + }, + "dwp.uc.households_single_with_children@2025": { + "adjudication": "microcosm#796", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "expires_on": "2026-09-30", + "reason": "UC with-children support residual, not a fit defect: initial eligible support runs 4.24m benunits vs 6.76m DWP admin after the #750 pension-wealth split, the #813 re-bind proved this cell's grain honest (family-type cells partition dwp.uc.households exactly), and the 0.55/0.70/0.85 take-up probes proved marginal claimants ~10:1 childless, so no calibration-side lever reaches it. Root cause evidenced by the donor-truth benchmark on #809: the wealth re-draw over-spreads countable capital >16k to a 38.3% household share vs the WAS donor's 28.6%, suppressing eligibility; the fix is the #145 draw-quality workstream. Deferred one month to unblock the first certified cut.", + "relative_error": -0.35308594798293363 + }, + "obr.capital_gains_tax@2025": { + "adjudication": "microcosm#875", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "expires_on": "2026-10-05", + "reason": "Vintage conflict, not a fit defect: the Chronicle re-pin (microcosm#874) put HMRC's 2024-25 CGT outturn on the feed (\u00a3127.3bn of chargeable gains, 584k taxpayers, against \u00a369.9bn / 403k in 2023-24 \u2014 the forestalling year ahead of the 30 October 2024 rate rise) and the doctrine binds it at face value at the 2025 period; the frame fits both HMRC rows within 0.3% and 2025-26 rates on those gains give \u00a331.4bn of liability (24.7% effective) against OBR's \u00a321.8bn FY2025-26 receipts and HMRC's realised 19.0% on the same gains (+44.2% at the composed calibration; \u221225% with the 2023-24 gains). The facts stay bound as published; the deliverable is a declared 2024-25 \u2192 2025 translation of the gains total under the WS-C reconciliation layer (#875: the index ruling, applying uprating_index in the compile step, the taxpayer count flat at 584k, the cash-lag mapping for self-assessed OBR lines). While in force the calibrated 2025-26 base carries ~40% more CGT liability than OBR expects.", + "relative_error": 0.44180350722778966 + } + }, + "stale_exclusions": [ + "hmrc/private_pension_income_count_income_band_100_000_to_150_000@2025" + ], + "targets_checked": 371 + }, + "failures": [ + "microcosm_uk_2024: hmrc/state_pension_income_band_50_000_to_70_000@2025 relative error +34.6% exceeds 25%.", + "microcosm_uk_2024: hmrc/state_pension_income_band_20_000_to_30_000@2025 relative error +25.3% exceeds 25%.", + "Stale reviewed target-fit exclusions are back inside the bound; remove them: ['hmrc/private_pension_income_count_income_band_100_000_to_150_000@2025']." + ], + "gate": "target_fit", + "phase": "terminal", + "reason": null, + "status": "failed" + }, + "uk_weight_ess": { + "criticality": "release_blocking", + "details": { + "effective_sample_size": 5868.432836224528, + "ess_fraction": 0.11104781508959104, + "max_to_median_positive_weight": 960.1502744779469, + "max_weight": 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Deferred one month to unblock the first certified cut.", + "relative_error": -0.31551457052579795 + }, + "dwp.uc.households_children_2@2025": { + "adjudication": "microcosm#796", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "expires_on": "2026-09-30", + "reason": "Same UC with-children support residual as dwp.uc.households_single_with_children@2025: honest grain after the #813 re-bind, unreachable by take-up (probes 0.55/0.70/0.85), caused by the wealth re-draw over-spread past the 16k countable-capital threshold (spine 38.3% vs WAS donor 28.6%, #809 receipts); owned by #145. Deferred one month to unblock the first certified cut.", + "relative_error": -0.3067136303514437 + }, + "dwp.uc.households_children_5_or_more@2025": { + "adjudication": "microcosm#796", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "expires_on": "2026-09-30", + "reason": "Same UC with-children support residual as dwp.uc.households_single_with_children@2025: honest grain after the #813 re-bind, unreachable by take-up (probes 0.55/0.70/0.85), caused by the wealth re-draw over-spread past the 16k countable-capital threshold (spine 38.3% vs WAS donor 28.6%, #809 receipts); owned by #145. Deferred one month to unblock the first certified cut.", + "relative_error": -0.2861814969376735 + }, + "dwp.uc.households_single_with_children@2025": { + "adjudication": "microcosm#796", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "expires_on": "2026-09-30", + "reason": "UC with-children support residual, not a fit defect: initial eligible support runs 4.24m benunits vs 6.76m DWP admin after the #750 pension-wealth split, the #813 re-bind proved this cell's grain honest (family-type cells partition dwp.uc.households exactly), and the 0.55/0.70/0.85 take-up probes proved marginal claimants ~10:1 childless, so no calibration-side lever reaches it. Root cause evidenced by the donor-truth benchmark on #809: the wealth re-draw over-spreads countable capital >16k to a 38.3% household share vs the WAS donor's 28.6%, suppressing eligibility; the fix is the #145 draw-quality workstream. Deferred one month to unblock the first certified cut.", + "relative_error": -0.34524697539912536 + }, + "obr.capital_gains_tax@2025": { + "adjudication": "microcosm#875", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "expires_on": "2026-10-05", + "reason": "Vintage conflict, not a fit defect: the Chronicle re-pin (microcosm#874) put HMRC's 2024-25 CGT outturn on the feed (\u00a3127.3bn of chargeable gains, 584k taxpayers, against \u00a369.9bn / 403k in 2023-24 \u2014 the forestalling year ahead of the 30 October 2024 rate rise) and the doctrine binds it at face value at the 2025 period; the frame fits both HMRC rows within 0.3% and 2025-26 rates on those gains give \u00a331.4bn of liability (24.7% effective) against OBR's \u00a321.8bn FY2025-26 receipts and HMRC's realised 19.0% on the same gains (+44.2% at the composed calibration; \u221225% with the 2023-24 gains). The facts stay bound as published; the deliverable is a declared 2024-25 \u2192 2025 translation of the gains total under the WS-C reconciliation layer (#875: the index ruling, applying uprating_index in the compile step, the taxpayer count flat at 584k, the cash-lag mapping for self-assessed OBR lines). While in force the calibrated 2025-26 base carries ~40% more CGT liability than OBR expects.", + "relative_error": 0.43743527699770823 + } + }, + "stale_exclusions": [ + "hmrc/private_pension_income_count_income_band_100_000_to_150_000@2025" + ], + "targets_checked": 371 + }, + "failures": [ + "microcosm_uk_2024: dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_27_600_to_28_800@2025 relative error -100.0% exceeds 25%.", + "microcosm_uk_2024: hmrc/self_employment_income_income_band_50_000_to_70_000@2025 relative error +35.4% exceeds 25%.", + "microcosm_uk_2024: voa.council_tax_stock.band_a@2025 relative error +28.2% exceeds 25%.", + "microcosm_uk_2024: hmrc/state_pension_income_band_20_000_to_30_000@2025 relative error +25.2% exceeds 25%.", + "Stale reviewed target-fit exclusions are back inside the bound; remove them: ['hmrc/private_pension_income_count_income_band_100_000_to_150_000@2025']." + ], + "gate": "target_fit", + "phase": "terminal", + "reason": null, + "status": 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}, + "loss_reduction": -4.9592761947529114e-06, + "share_of_net_loss_reduction": -0.0005907023555097178 + }, + { + "binding": { + "name": "dft.bus_net_support.england@2025", + "target_name": "dft.bus_net_support.england", + "period": 2025, + "entity": "household", + "measure": { + "kind": "column", + "name": "dft/bus_net_support/england" + }, + "filter": null, + "source": "dft | BUS05i estimated operating revenue and net support for local bus services | bus05i.ods | bus_statistics_2025 | https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69c11f97b920af63be1c7631/bus05i.ods", + "metadata": { + "ledger_source": "policyengine-ledger-data", + "ledger_fact_key": "ledger.aggregate_fact.v2:a12dfcdc0662c8a5e48bf003", + "ledger_source_record_id": "dft.bus05i.bus05bi.net_support.fy2025.england.total_estimated_net_support", + "ledger_aggregate_fact_key": "ledger.aggregate_fact.v2:a12dfcdc0662c8a5e48bf003", + "ledger_semantic_fact_key": "ledger.semantic_fact.v2:d6c31dbfd7e23d0a705861ca", + "ledger_legacy_fact_key": "ledger.fact.v1:8a542c83a1f87db14a1628c2", + "ledger_observed_measure_key": "ledger.observed_measure.v2:e7fee1244b131826fc9dadeb", + "ledger_dimension_set_key": "ledger.dimension_set.v2:44136fa355b3678a1146ad16", + "ledger_universe_constraint_set_key": "ledger.universe_constraint_set.v2:9c52c7e06f40010727e691b4", + "ledger_measure_concept": "dft.local_bus_total_estimated_net_support", + "ledger_measure_unit": "gbp", + "ledger_source_concept": "dft.local_bus_total_estimated_net_support", + "ledger_concept_relation": "source_label", + "ledger_concept_authority": "dft", + "ledger_period_type": "fiscal_year", + "ledger_fact_period": "2025", + "ledger_assertion": "observation", + "ledger_geography_level": "country", + "ledger_geography_id": "E92000001", + "ledger_geography_vintage": "current", + "ledger_entity_name": "institutional_sector", + "ledger_entity_role": "local_bus_service_operators", + "ledger_domain": "local_bus_finance", + "ledger_layout_record_set_id": "dft.bus05i.bus05bi.net_support.fy2025", + "ledger_layout_record_set_spec_id": "dft.bus05i.bus05bi.net_support.fy2025.v1", + "ledger_layout_groupby_dimension": "dft.bus_area", + "ledger_layout_groupby_value_id": "england", + "ledger_layout_measure_id": "total_estimated_net_support", + "ledger_aggregation_method": "sum", + "ledger_resolved_assertion": "observation", + "contract_target_id": "dft.bus_net_support.england", + "measure_kind": "prepared_column", + "observation_basis": "fiscal_year_flow", + "ledger_value_operation": "identity", + "ledger_assertion_policy": "observed_only", + "ledger_period_match_policy": "latest_not_after", + "ledger_selector_entity_name": "institutional_sector", + "ledger_selector_geography_id": "E92000001", + "ledger_selector_geography_level": "country", + "ledger_selector_layout_groupby_value_id": "england", + "ledger_selector_period_type": "fiscal_year", + "ledger_selector_source_concept": "dft.local_bus_total_estimated_net_support", + "ledger_selector_source_name": "dft" + }, + "target": 3024904320.8399997, + "compiled_target": 3024904320.8399997, + "registry": { + "family": "dft_local_bus", + "se": null, + "signed": false, + "notes": "" + }, + "target_loss_weight": 0.022727272727272728, + "target_loss_weight_share": 0.022727272727272728, + "target_loss_scale": 3024904320.8399997 + }, + "control": { + "final_capped_scaled_error": 0.0018161682881536044, + "final_estimate": 3030398056.142208, + "final_loss_contribution": 4.127655200349101e-05, + "initial_estimate": 2152975245.4217157, + "relative_error": 0.0018161682881536044, + "within_tolerance": null + }, + "treatment": { + "final_capped_scaled_error": 0.0007858286268297858, + "final_estimate": 3027281377.248737, + "final_loss_contribution": 1.785974151885877e-05, + "initial_estimate": 2153625321.396039, + "relative_error": 0.0007858286268297858, + "within_tolerance": null + }, + "loss_reduction": 2.341681048463224e-05, + "share_of_net_loss_reduction": 0.002789190310963533 + } + ], + "decision_assessment": { + "A22_A23": { + "changed": false, + "rates": { + "tax_free_childcare": 0.88, + "targeted_childcare": 0.597, + "extended_childcare": 0.6054, + "universal_childcare": 0.4539 + }, + "interpretation": "National fit at these fixed rates does not re-estimate take-up or verify the historical eligible-base ceiling; no new ceiling-rate decision." + }, + "private_pension_deferral": { + "changed": false, + "control_relative_error": 0.2471568736352954, + "treatment_relative_error": 0.14256487508571145, + "control_stale": true, + "treatment_stale": true, + "interpretation": "Staleness is reported as a gate failure; this receipt does not remove or renew the protected entry." + } + }, + "limitations": [ + "National-only single-seed comparison; no local-area accuracy claim.", + "The age16 guard does not protect all qualifying FRS children aged16\u201319.", + "Six SPI flows remain nominal and pension receipt is a proxy, not an entitlement identity.", + "No calibrated file is exported if native terminal gates refuse.", + "This is not the absent shared quality/dashboard schema and not a release certificate." + ] +} diff --git a/experiments/receipts/uk-publication-spi-native-validation.json b/experiments/receipts/uk-publication-spi-native-validation.json new file mode 100644 index 000000000..580a666df --- /dev/null +++ b/experiments/receipts/uk-publication-spi-native-validation.json @@ -0,0 +1,124 @@ +{ + "runs": [ + { + "file": "publication-control-focused_contracts.xml", + "tests": 370, + "counts": { + "pass": 363, + "fail": 1, + "skip": 6, + "error": 0 + }, + "failures": [ + { + "id": "packages.microcosm-build.tests.test_uk_release_input_coverage_manifest::test_cached_candidate_regeneration_matches_committed_evidence", + "message": "AssertionError: assert {'column_enti....0, ...}, ...} == {'column_enti....0, ...}, ...}\n \n Omitting 13 identical items, use -vv to show\n Differing items:\n {'engine': {'h5_input_aliases': {'capital_gains': 'capital_gains_before_response', 'employee_pension_contributions': '...ns_reported', 'employment_income': 'employment_income_before_lsr'}, 'package': 'policyengine-uk', 'version': '2.94.0'}} != {'engine': {'h5_input_aliases': {'capital_gains': 'capital_gains_before_response', 'employee_pension_contributions': '...ns_reported', 'employment_income': 'employment_income_before_lsr'}, 'package': 'policyengine-uk', 'version': '2.89.0'}}\n Use -v to get more diff" + } + ], + "artifact_sha256": "eef5e3dcd97e9dd14dc23cfda9b20aaa38252b70340eadfd9dd45732edbaad9f" + }, + { + "file": "publication-control-full_graph_and_legacy_oracle.xml", + "tests": 336, + "counts": { + "pass": 335, + "fail": 0, + "skip": 1, + "error": 0 + }, + "failures": [], + "artifact_sha256": "92d2db7f3346209c8052b010f017071b22394e015ca999377657508889000820" + }, + { + "file": "publication-treatment-focused_contracts.xml", + "tests": 386, + "counts": { + "pass": 378, + "fail": 2, + "skip": 6, + "error": 0 + }, + "failures": [ + { + "id": "packages.microcosm-build.tests.test_spec_engine_country_bundles::test_country_bundle_loads_once_and_compiles_through_the_shared_core[uk-0accc39d40d8c8106f4c9bc5562ccca50f1212cd2a8cdf72f416978ca12570ff-expected_columns2-expected_entities2]", + "message": "AssertionError: assert 'e0dd9175920f...ead91dd16dd9b' == '0accc39d40d8...6978ca12570ff'\n \n - 0accc39d40d8c8106f4c9bc5562ccca50f1212cd2a8cdf72f416978ca12570ff\n + e0dd9175920f6d1368a74957367182dc4d6357ffbdb1f728457ead91dd16dd9b" + }, + { + "id": "packages.microcosm-build.tests.test_uk_release_input_coverage_manifest::test_cached_candidate_regeneration_matches_committed_evidence", + "message": "AssertionError: assert {'column_enti....0, ...}, ...} == {'column_enti....0, ...}, ...}\n \n Omitting 13 identical items, use -vv to show\n Differing items:\n {'engine': {'h5_input_aliases': {'capital_gains': 'capital_gains_before_response', 'employee_pension_contributions': '...ns_reported', 'employment_income': 'employment_income_before_lsr'}, 'package': 'policyengine-uk', 'version': '2.94.0'}} != {'engine': {'h5_input_aliases': {'capital_gains': 'capital_gains_before_response', 'employee_pension_contributions': '...ns_reported', 'employment_income': 'employment_income_before_lsr'}, 'package': 'policyengine-uk', 'version': '2.89.0'}}\n Use -v to get more diff" + } + ], + "artifact_sha256": "1ee61424dfbd7acb0ae6222d16291ea4cc970e0b0f0c67cf09e647062a593adc" + }, + { + "file": "publication-treatment-full_graph_and_legacy_oracle.xml", + "tests": 336, + "counts": { + "pass": 335, + "fail": 0, + "skip": 1, + "error": 0 + }, + "failures": [], + "artifact_sha256": "90b233ae40b89e75bb912bee62e9a1d80166b668fe5c52d34ef5f4ff2324b014" + }, + { + "file": "publication-treatment-data-contract.xml", + "tests": 229, + "counts": { + "pass": 229, + "fail": 0, + "skip": 0, + "error": 0 + }, + "failures": [], + "artifact_sha256": "77ed8bb341884f094f67621b48bf3dac4b96d49f767a7d4b290605b659f2fef0" + }, + { + "file": "publication-country-pin-rerun.xml", + "tests": 18, + "counts": { + "pass": 18, + "fail": 0, + "skip": 0, + "error": 0 + }, + "failures": [], + "artifact_sha256": "ef9ba96e0e75d3dbcc30d21a1bed3acc40546984c4c42418eb3d2c39a1a254b0" + }, + { + "file": "publication-final-spi-rerun.xml", + "tests": 38, + "counts": { + "pass": 37, + "fail": 0, + "skip": 1, + "error": 0 + }, + "failures": [], + "artifact_sha256": "7d59b254c8d42c48716690a72c4c8f703d221a585294f2a926d839ac52dc6e9e" + } + ], + "unique_treatment_latest_status": { + "pass": 943, + "fail": 1, + "skip": 7, + "error": 0 + }, + "note": "Unique treatment statuses canonicalize only the reviewed old/new UK-spec SHA parameter to the same logical case, then let later country/SPI reruns supersede earlier states; initial failing invocations remain individually recorded. This is not a clean whole-suite rerun.", + "command_reference": { + "normal_initialization": "uv run --no-sync python -c 'import microcosm.build.uk_runtime; from microcosm.build.country_spec import load_country_spec; from microcosm.build.spec_engine import load_bundle; load_bundle(\"uk\"); load_country_spec(\"uk\")'", + "focused_contracts": "uv run --no-sync pytest packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_spi_income.py packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_spi_spine.py packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_spi_support.py packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_source_stages.py packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_source_runtime.py packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_spec_engine_schema.py packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_spec_engine_country_bundles.py packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_spec_engine_reemission.py packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_spec_engine_field_usage.py packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_release_input_coverage.py packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_release_input_coverage_manifest.py packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_graph.py packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_ledger_artifact.py packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_ledger_targets.py packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_target_references.py packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_national_calibration.py packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_terminal_gates.py -q", + "full_graph_and_legacy_oracle": "uv run --no-sync pytest packages/microcosm-graph/tests -q", + "actual_uk_engine": "uv run --no-sync pytest packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_spi_income.py packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_graph.py packages/microcosm-graph/tests/test_acceptance_h_parity.py -m requires_uk -q", + "coverage_regenerate": "uv run --no-sync python tools/build_uk_release_input_coverage_manifest.py", + "coverage_check": "uv run --no-sync python tools/build_uk_release_input_coverage_manifest.py --check", + "fixture_regenerate": "uv run --no-sync python tools/graph_uk_spine_fixture.py", + "inventory": "uv run --no-sync python tools/ci_test_groups.py --verify", + "ci_uk_inventory": "uv run --no-sync python tools/ci_test_groups.py --list uk", + "lint": "uv run --no-sync ruff check .", + "data_contract": "uv run --no-sync pytest packages/microcosm-data/tests/test_contract.py -q", + "country_pin_rerun": "uv run --no-sync pytest packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_spec_engine_country_bundles.py -q", + "spi_format_rerun": "uv run --no-sync pytest packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_spi_income.py -q" + } +} From ae4ecbdcd782bcf25a33ff533b183dcde99cde54 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: =?UTF-8?q?Mar=C3=ADa=20Juaristi?= <127882282+juaristi22@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Mon, 7 Sep 2026 13:00:26 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 07/12] Correct national VOA scope and UC calibration family measurement --- .../879-calibration-measurement.fixed.md | 1 + .../build/uk/uk_population_targets.json | 125 ++++++++++++------ .../build/uk_runtime/measure_simulation.py | 73 ++++++++++ .../tests/test_uk_council_tax_targets.py | 78 +++++++++++ .../tests/test_uk_ledger_targets.py | 4 +- .../tests/test_uk_population_targets.py | 4 +- .../tests/test_uk_uc_family.py | 85 ++++++++++++ 7 files changed, 326 insertions(+), 44 deletions(-) create mode 100644 changelog.d/879-calibration-measurement.fixed.md create mode 100644 packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_uc_family.py diff --git a/changelog.d/879-calibration-measurement.fixed.md b/changelog.d/879-calibration-measurement.fixed.md new file mode 100644 index 000000000..68a683058 --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/879-calibration-measurement.fixed.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +Restrict national VOA council-tax stock measurements to England and classify UC calibration families using retained FRS claimant and parent roles, including children and qualifying young people under 20. diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/uk_population_targets.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/uk_population_targets.json index 1fb59edc3..ff68d8f60 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/uk_population_targets.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/uk_population_targets.json @@ -679,8 +679,8 @@ "hmrc.salary_sacrifice.it_relief_basic_rate": "New declaration backed by chronicle#139 salary-sacrifice facts; the incumbent source CSV is still 410-Gone at 12a1e028 and its rows are silently suppressed by the bare-except drop in build_loss_matrix.py:376-394.", "hmrc.salary_sacrifice.it_relief_higher_rate": "New declaration backed by chronicle#139 salary-sacrifice facts; the incumbent source CSV is still 410-Gone at 12a1e028 and its rows are silently suppressed by the bare-except drop in build_loss_matrix.py:376-394.", "hmrc.salary_sacrifice.it_relief_additional_rate": "New declaration backed by chronicle#139 salary-sacrifice facts; the incumbent source CSV is still 410-Gone at 12a1e028 and its rows are silently suppressed by the bare-except drop in build_loss_matrix.py:376-394.", - "ons.population.female_90_plus": "María ruling 2026-08-21: split the incumbent terminal sex bands into uniform five-year 85_89 bands plus 90_plus tails. The incumbent six-year 85_90 terminal rows leave ages 91+ unconstrained; Microcosm keeps the uniform five-year bands and constrains the tail. The 85_89-vs-85_90 value gap is the single-age-90 share and is a signed semantic difference.", - "ons.population.male_90_plus": "María ruling 2026-08-21: split the incumbent terminal sex bands into uniform five-year 85_89 bands plus 90_plus tails. The incumbent six-year 85_90 terminal rows leave ages 91+ unconstrained; Microcosm keeps the uniform five-year bands and constrains the tail. The 85_89-vs-85_90 value gap is the single-age-90 share and is a signed semantic difference.", + "ons.population.female_90_plus": "Mar\u00eda ruling 2026-08-21: split the incumbent terminal sex bands into uniform five-year 85_89 bands plus 90_plus tails. The incumbent six-year 85_90 terminal rows leave ages 91+ unconstrained; Microcosm keeps the uniform five-year bands and constrains the tail. The 85_89-vs-85_90 value gap is the single-age-90 share and is a signed semantic difference.", + "ons.population.male_90_plus": "Mar\u00eda ruling 2026-08-21: split the incumbent terminal sex bands into uniform five-year 85_89 bands plus 90_plus tails. The incumbent six-year 85_90 terminal rows leave ages 91+ unconstrained; Microcosm keeps the uniform five-year bands and constrains the tail. The 85_89-vs-85_90 value gap is the single-age-90 share and is a signed semantic difference.", "hmrc.tfc.government_top_up": "Post-freeze fact family, no uk-data metric.", "hmrc.tfc.children_with_used_accounts": "Post-freeze fact family, no uk-data metric.", "dfe.funded_childcare.working_parent_children_2_to_4": "Post-freeze fact family, no uk-data metric.", @@ -723,7 +723,7 @@ "salary_sacrifice_obr_near_equivalents": "The contract separately maps OBR near-equivalents obr/salary_sacrifice_employee_ni_relief and obr/salary_sacrifice_employer_ni_relief onto hmrc.salary_sacrifice.nics_relief_employee and hmrc.salary_sacrifice.nics_relief_employer.", "two_child_limit_year_surface": "Chronicle's 15 dwp/uc/two_child_limit/* facts are the April-2025 publication (period month 2025-04) and are the only TCL facts; there are no 2026 Ledger facts. At 12a1e028, the incumbent pins the same published numbers at {2026}, so at calibration year 2025 Ledger activates all 15 TCL targets while the incumbent drops them from the 652-row union to the 637-row effective surface; the 2026 effective surface remains 652. The same 12a1e028 refresh adds the new incumbent dwp/uc/households row. Fixture B treats the 15 TCL rows as enumerated ledger-side additions.", "geography_level_order_canonicalization": "The 9 voa.council_tax_stock.* rows use country, region order to match the rest of the contract; consumers use membership only.", - "ons_terminal_sex_band_split": "María ruling 2026-08-21: split the incumbent terminal sex bands into uniform five-year 85_89 bands plus 90_plus tails. The incumbent six-year 85_90 terminal rows leave ages 91+ unconstrained; Microcosm keeps the uniform five-year bands and constrains the tail. The 85_89-vs-85_90 value gap is the single-age-90 share and is a signed semantic difference." + "ons_terminal_sex_band_split": "Mar\u00eda ruling 2026-08-21: split the incumbent terminal sex bands into uniform five-year 85_89 bands plus 90_plus tails. The incumbent six-year 85_90 terminal rows leave ages 91+ unconstrained; Microcosm keeps the uniform five-year bands and constrains the tail. The 85_89-vs-85_90 value gap is the single-age-90 share and is a signed semantic difference." }, "scope_target_ids": [ "obr.income_tax", @@ -1406,7 +1406,7 @@ "value_variable": "total_national_insurance", "from_entity": "person", "map_to": "household", - "notes": "The EFO line is total NICs receipts; binds total_national_insurance (class 1 employee + employer + classes 2-4). The prior ni_employee-only binding was the uk-data defect carried for parity — final estimate bit-identical to obr.ni_employee — fixed under the microcosm#757 audit partition (2026-08-26). Nearly redundant with the three separately-calibrated component lines by construction; kept so the published total binds honestly. Residual gap is Class 1A/1B on benefits in kind, which the model does not carry." + "notes": "The EFO line is total NICs receipts; binds total_national_insurance (class 1 employee + employer + classes 2-4). The prior ni_employee-only binding was the uk-data defect carried for parity \u2014 final estimate bit-identical to obr.ni_employee \u2014 fixed under the microcosm#757 audit partition (2026-08-26). Nearly redundant with the three separately-calibrated component lines by construction; kept so the published total binds honestly. Residual gap is Class 1A/1B on benefits in kind, which the model does not carry." }, "axiom": { "metric_name": "obr/ni", @@ -3507,12 +3507,12 @@ "value": 0 }, { - "variable": "num_children", + "variable": "uc_calibration_child_count", "operator": "==", "value": 1 } ], - "notes": "Prepared benefit-unit count: UC receipt and the claim's child count (model num_children, age<18 per benunit). DWP household means the UC unit of assessment, not an ONS household; DWP counts children on the claim including 16-19 qualifying young persons in non-advanced education, whom the age<18 concept omits - declared residue. Re-bound from household grain per microcosm#809 (the dwelling-wide is_child sum counted other benunits' children)." + "notes": "Benefit-unit count among positive UC awards. Child counts use retained FRS child members under 20 and UC child/qualifying-young-person status, excluding claimant/parent roles. DWP reported children can exceed those eligible for a child element. Benefit-unit grain retains the microcosm#809 correction for multibenunit households. Simulated entitlement is unchanged." }, "axiom": { "metric_name": "dwp/uc/claimants_with_1_children", @@ -3566,12 +3566,12 @@ "value": 0 }, { - "variable": "num_children", + "variable": "uc_calibration_child_count", "operator": "==", "value": 2 } ], - "notes": "Prepared benefit-unit count: UC receipt and the claim's child count (model num_children, age<18 per benunit). DWP household means the UC unit of assessment, not an ONS household; DWP counts children on the claim including 16-19 qualifying young persons in non-advanced education, whom the age<18 concept omits - declared residue. Re-bound from household grain per microcosm#809 (the dwelling-wide is_child sum counted other benunits' children)." + "notes": "Benefit-unit count among positive UC awards. Child counts use retained FRS child members under 20 and UC child/qualifying-young-person status, excluding claimant/parent roles. DWP reported children can exceed those eligible for a child element. Benefit-unit grain retains the microcosm#809 correction for multibenunit households. Simulated entitlement is unchanged." }, "axiom": { "metric_name": "dwp/uc/claimants_with_2_children", @@ -3625,12 +3625,12 @@ "value": 0 }, { - "variable": "num_children", + "variable": "uc_calibration_child_count", "operator": "==", "value": 3 } ], - "notes": "Prepared benefit-unit count: UC receipt and the claim's child count (model num_children, age<18 per benunit). DWP household means the UC unit of assessment, not an ONS household; DWP counts children on the claim including 16-19 qualifying young persons in non-advanced education, whom the age<18 concept omits - declared residue. Re-bound from household grain per microcosm#809 (the dwelling-wide is_child sum counted other benunits' children)." + "notes": "Benefit-unit count among positive UC awards. Child counts use retained FRS child members under 20 and UC child/qualifying-young-person status, excluding claimant/parent roles. DWP reported children can exceed those eligible for a child element. Benefit-unit grain retains the microcosm#809 correction for multibenunit households. Simulated entitlement is unchanged." }, "axiom": { "metric_name": "dwp/uc/claimants_with_3_children", @@ -3684,12 +3684,12 @@ "value": 0 }, { - "variable": "num_children", + "variable": "uc_calibration_child_count", "operator": "==", "value": 4 } ], - "notes": "Prepared benefit-unit count: UC receipt and the claim's child count (model num_children, age<18 per benunit). DWP household means the UC unit of assessment, not an ONS household; DWP counts children on the claim including 16-19 qualifying young persons in non-advanced education, whom the age<18 concept omits - declared residue. Re-bound from household grain per microcosm#809 (the dwelling-wide is_child sum counted other benunits' children)." + "notes": "Benefit-unit count among positive UC awards. Child counts use retained FRS child members under 20 and UC child/qualifying-young-person status, excluding claimant/parent roles. DWP reported children can exceed those eligible for a child element. Benefit-unit grain retains the microcosm#809 correction for multibenunit households. Simulated entitlement is unchanged." }, "axiom": { "metric_name": "dwp/uc/claimants_with_4_children", @@ -3743,12 +3743,12 @@ "value": 0 }, { - "variable": "num_children", + "variable": "uc_calibration_child_count", "operator": ">=", "value": 5 } ], - "notes": "Prepared benefit-unit count: UC receipt and the claim's child count (model num_children, age<18 per benunit). DWP household means the UC unit of assessment, not an ONS household; DWP counts children on the claim including 16-19 qualifying young persons in non-advanced education, whom the age<18 concept omits - declared residue. Re-bound from household grain per microcosm#809 (the dwelling-wide is_child sum counted other benunits' children)." + "notes": "Benefit-unit count among positive UC awards. Child counts use retained FRS child members under 20 and UC child/qualifying-young-person status, excluding claimant/parent roles. DWP reported children can exceed those eligible for a child element. Benefit-unit grain retains the microcosm#809 correction for multibenunit households. Simulated entitlement is unchanged." }, "axiom": { "metric_name": "dwp/uc/claimants_with_5+_children", @@ -3797,12 +3797,12 @@ "value": 0 }, { - "variable": "family_type", + "variable": "uc_calibration_family_type", "operator": "==", "value": "SINGLE" } ], - "notes": "Prepared benefit-unit count: UC receipt and family_type == SINGLE (single, no children at benunit grain). DWP household means the UC unit of assessment. Re-bound from household grain per microcosm#809 - the any-benunit family type plus dwelling-wide child sum deleted single claimants sharing a dwelling with another benunit's children. uk-data's +~0.021% undercount inflation is a populace-side value declaration." + "notes": "Benefit-unit count among positive UC awards. Family composition uses retained FRS claimant/parent roles, including cohabiting couples, and reported child members under 20 or UC qualifying children. This calibration proxy corrects generic age-only family categories; the native standard-allowance relationship calculation and eligibility exceptions remain separate model concerns. Benefit-unit grain retains microcosm#809." }, "axiom": { "metric_name": "dwp/uc/claimants_single_no_children", @@ -3851,12 +3851,12 @@ "value": 0 }, { - "variable": "family_type", + "variable": "uc_calibration_family_type", "operator": "==", "value": "LONE_PARENT" } ], - "notes": "Prepared benefit-unit count: UC receipt and family_type == LONE_PARENT. DWP's 'Single, with children' bucket is LONE_PARENT at benunit grain - the previous SINGLE-or-LONE_PARENT compound plus dwelling-wide child sum collapses to the single enum value. Re-bound per microcosm#809. uk-data's +~0.021% undercount inflation is a populace-side value declaration." + "notes": "Benefit-unit count among positive UC awards. Family composition uses retained FRS claimant/parent roles, including cohabiting couples, and reported child members under 20 or UC qualifying children. This calibration proxy corrects generic age-only family categories; the native standard-allowance relationship calculation and eligibility exceptions remain separate model concerns. Benefit-unit grain retains microcosm#809." }, "axiom": { "metric_name": "dwp/uc/claimants_single_with_children", @@ -3905,12 +3905,12 @@ "value": 0 }, { - "variable": "family_type", + "variable": "uc_calibration_family_type", "operator": "==", "value": "COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN" } ], - "notes": "Prepared benefit-unit count: UC receipt and family_type == COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN. DWP household means the UC unit of assessment. Re-bound from household grain per microcosm#809. uk-data's +~0.021% undercount inflation is a populace-side value declaration." + "notes": "Benefit-unit count among positive UC awards. Family composition uses retained FRS claimant/parent roles, including cohabiting couples, and reported child members under 20 or UC qualifying children. This calibration proxy corrects generic age-only family categories; the native standard-allowance relationship calculation and eligibility exceptions remain separate model concerns. Benefit-unit grain retains microcosm#809." }, "axiom": { "metric_name": "dwp/uc/claimants_couple_no_children", @@ -3959,12 +3959,12 @@ "value": 0 }, { - "variable": "family_type", + "variable": "uc_calibration_family_type", "operator": "==", "value": "COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN" } ], - "notes": "Prepared benefit-unit count: UC receipt and family_type == COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN. DWP household means the UC unit of assessment. Re-bound from household grain per microcosm#809. uk-data's +~0.021% undercount inflation is a populace-side value declaration." + "notes": "Benefit-unit count among positive UC awards. Family composition uses retained FRS claimant/parent roles, including cohabiting couples, and reported child members under 20 or UC qualifying children. This calibration proxy corrects generic age-only family categories; the native standard-allowance relationship calculation and eligibility exceptions remain separate model concerns. Benefit-unit grain retains microcosm#809." }, "axiom": { "metric_name": "dwp/uc/claimants_couple_with_children", @@ -4009,7 +4009,7 @@ "groupby_variable": "universal_credit", "filters": [ { - "variable": "family_type", + "variable": "uc_calibration_family_type", "operator": "==", "value": "SINGLE" } @@ -4018,7 +4018,7 @@ "from_entity": "benunit", "map_to": "household", "band_period_factor": 12, - "notes": "Benunit counts by annual UC award band: publisher bands are monthly award amounts, multiplied by 12 to band annual model UC (compute/benefits.py:84-98; half-open [lower, upper))." + "notes": "Benunit counts by annual UC award band: publisher bands are monthly award amounts, multiplied by 12 to band annual model UC (compute/benefits.py:84-98; half-open [lower, upper)). Calibration composition uses retained FRS claimant/parent roles and UC child or qualifying-young-person status, including reported child members under 20; it does not change simulated entitlement." }, "axiom": { "metric_name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/SINGLE", @@ -4064,7 +4064,7 @@ "groupby_variable": "universal_credit", "filters": [ { - "variable": "family_type", + "variable": "uc_calibration_family_type", "operator": "==", "value": "LONE_PARENT" } @@ -4073,7 +4073,7 @@ "from_entity": "benunit", "map_to": "household", "band_period_factor": 12, - "notes": "Benunit counts by annual UC award band: publisher bands are monthly award amounts, multiplied by 12 to band annual model UC (compute/benefits.py:84-98; half-open [lower, upper))." + "notes": "Benunit counts by annual UC award band: publisher bands are monthly award amounts, multiplied by 12 to band annual model UC (compute/benefits.py:84-98; half-open [lower, upper)). Calibration composition uses retained FRS claimant/parent roles and UC child or qualifying-young-person status, including reported child members under 20; it does not change simulated entitlement." }, "axiom": { "metric_name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/LONE_PARENT", @@ -4119,7 +4119,7 @@ "groupby_variable": "universal_credit", "filters": [ { - "variable": "family_type", + "variable": "uc_calibration_family_type", "operator": "==", "value": "COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN" } @@ -4128,7 +4128,7 @@ "from_entity": "benunit", "map_to": "household", "band_period_factor": 12, - "notes": "Benunit counts by annual UC award band: publisher bands are monthly award amounts, multiplied by 12 to band annual model UC (compute/benefits.py:84-98; half-open [lower, upper))." + "notes": "Benunit counts by annual UC award band: publisher bands are monthly award amounts, multiplied by 12 to band annual model UC (compute/benefits.py:84-98; half-open [lower, upper)). Calibration composition uses retained FRS claimant/parent roles and UC child or qualifying-young-person status, including reported child members under 20; it does not change simulated entitlement." }, "axiom": { "metric_name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN", @@ -4174,7 +4174,7 @@ "groupby_variable": "universal_credit", "filters": [ { - "variable": "family_type", + "variable": "uc_calibration_family_type", "operator": "==", "value": "COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN" } @@ -4183,7 +4183,7 @@ "from_entity": "benunit", "map_to": "household", "band_period_factor": 12, - "notes": "Benunit counts by annual UC award band: publisher bands are monthly award amounts, multiplied by 12 to band annual model UC (compute/benefits.py:84-98; half-open [lower, upper))." + "notes": "Benunit counts by annual UC award band: publisher bands are monthly award amounts, multiplied by 12 to band annual model UC (compute/benefits.py:84-98; half-open [lower, upper)). Calibration composition uses retained FRS claimant/parent roles and UC child or qualifying-young-person status, including reported child members under 20; it does not change simulated entitlement." }, "axiom": { "metric_name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN", @@ -8689,7 +8689,7 @@ } ], "value_variable": "household_count", - "notes": "ONS Table 7 'one family only: couple, no children' is the household being exactly one childless couple and nobody else; with the childless-couple benunit present, person count == 2 is equivalent to the one-family restriction. Without it the binding counted every household *containing* such a couple — a 1.84m overlap with the couple-non-dependent-children and multi-family categories (microcosm#757 audit partition, 2026-08-26)." + "notes": "ONS Table 7 'one family only: couple, no children' is the household being exactly one childless couple and nobody else; with the childless-couple benunit present, person count == 2 is equivalent to the one-family restriction. Without it the binding counted every household *containing* such a couple \u2014 a 1.84m overlap with the couple-non-dependent-children and multi-family categories (microcosm#757 audit partition, 2026-08-26)." }, "axiom": { "metric_name": "ons/couple_no_children_households", @@ -9028,10 +9028,15 @@ "variable": "council_tax_band", "operator": "==", "value": "A" + }, + { + "variable": "country", + "operator": "==", + "value": "ENGLAND" } ], "value_variable": "household_count", - "notes": "Dwelling stock proxied by households; one row per VOA geography (English regions at region level, Wales at country level) - the resolved geography binds the region filter (compute/council_tax.py:6-18). uk-data does not target VOA band I." + "notes": "England dwelling stock proxied by households. National references select E92000001, and this binding explicitly filters country == ENGLAND. Local VOA bands use the separate by_area bindings." }, "axiom": { "metric_name": "voa/council_tax/band_a", @@ -9116,10 +9121,15 @@ "variable": "council_tax_band", "operator": "==", "value": "B" + }, + { + "variable": "country", + "operator": "==", + "value": "ENGLAND" } ], "value_variable": "household_count", - "notes": "Dwelling stock proxied by households; one row per VOA geography (English regions at region level, Wales at country level) - the resolved geography binds the region filter (compute/council_tax.py:6-18). uk-data does not target VOA band I." + "notes": "England dwelling stock proxied by households. National references select E92000001, and this binding explicitly filters country == ENGLAND. Local VOA bands use the separate by_area bindings." }, "axiom": { "metric_name": "voa/council_tax/band_b", @@ -9204,10 +9214,15 @@ "variable": "council_tax_band", "operator": "==", "value": "C" + }, + { + "variable": "country", + "operator": "==", + "value": "ENGLAND" } ], "value_variable": "household_count", - "notes": "Dwelling stock proxied by households; one row per VOA geography (English regions at region level, Wales at country level) - the resolved geography binds the region filter (compute/council_tax.py:6-18). uk-data does not target VOA band I." + "notes": "England dwelling stock proxied by households. National references select E92000001, and this binding explicitly filters country == ENGLAND. Local VOA bands use the separate by_area bindings." }, "axiom": { "metric_name": "voa/council_tax/band_c", @@ -9292,10 +9307,15 @@ "variable": "council_tax_band", "operator": "==", "value": "D" + }, + { + "variable": "country", + "operator": "==", + "value": "ENGLAND" } ], "value_variable": "household_count", - "notes": "Dwelling stock proxied by households; one row per VOA geography (English regions at region level, Wales at country level) - the resolved geography binds the region filter (compute/council_tax.py:6-18). uk-data does not target VOA band I." + "notes": "England dwelling stock proxied by households. National references select E92000001, and this binding explicitly filters country == ENGLAND. Local VOA bands use the separate by_area bindings." }, "axiom": { "metric_name": "voa/council_tax/band_d", @@ -9380,10 +9400,15 @@ "variable": "council_tax_band", "operator": "==", "value": "E" + }, + { + "variable": "country", + "operator": "==", + "value": "ENGLAND" } ], "value_variable": "household_count", - "notes": "Dwelling stock proxied by households; one row per VOA geography (English regions at region level, Wales at country level) - the resolved geography binds the region filter (compute/council_tax.py:6-18). uk-data does not target VOA band I." + "notes": "England dwelling stock proxied by households. National references select E92000001, and this binding explicitly filters country == ENGLAND. Local VOA bands use the separate by_area bindings." }, "axiom": { "metric_name": "voa/council_tax/band_e", @@ -9468,10 +9493,15 @@ "variable": "council_tax_band", "operator": "==", "value": "F" + }, + { + "variable": "country", + "operator": "==", + "value": "ENGLAND" } ], "value_variable": "household_count", - "notes": "Dwelling stock proxied by households; one row per VOA geography (English regions at region level, Wales at country level) - the resolved geography binds the region filter (compute/council_tax.py:6-18). uk-data does not target VOA band I." + "notes": "England dwelling stock proxied by households. National references select E92000001, and this binding explicitly filters country == ENGLAND. Local VOA bands use the separate by_area bindings." }, "axiom": { "metric_name": "voa/council_tax/band_f", @@ -9556,10 +9586,15 @@ "variable": "council_tax_band", "operator": "==", "value": "G" + }, + { + "variable": "country", + "operator": "==", + "value": "ENGLAND" } ], "value_variable": "household_count", - "notes": "Dwelling stock proxied by households; one row per VOA geography (English regions at region level, Wales at country level) - the resolved geography binds the region filter (compute/council_tax.py:6-18). uk-data does not target VOA band I." + "notes": "England dwelling stock proxied by households. National references select E92000001, and this binding explicitly filters country == ENGLAND. Local VOA bands use the separate by_area bindings." }, "axiom": { "metric_name": "voa/council_tax/band_g", @@ -9644,10 +9679,15 @@ "variable": "council_tax_band", "operator": "==", "value": "H" + }, + { + "variable": "country", + "operator": "==", + "value": "ENGLAND" } ], "value_variable": "household_count", - "notes": "Dwelling stock proxied by households; one row per VOA geography (English regions at region level, Wales at country level) - the resolved geography binds the region filter (compute/council_tax.py:6-18). uk-data does not target VOA band I." + "notes": "England dwelling stock proxied by households. National references select E92000001, and this binding explicitly filters country == ENGLAND. Local VOA bands use the separate by_area bindings." }, "axiom": { "metric_name": "voa/council_tax/band_h", @@ -9726,10 +9766,15 @@ "variable": "household_num_benunits", "operator": ">=", "value": 0 + }, + { + "variable": "country", + "operator": "==", + "value": "ENGLAND" } ], "value_variable": "household_count", - "notes": "Dwelling stock proxied by households; one row per VOA geography (English regions at region level, Wales at country level) - the resolved geography binds the region filter (compute/council_tax.py:6-18). uk-data does not target VOA band I." + "notes": "England dwelling stock proxied by households. National references select E92000001, and this binding explicitly filters country == ENGLAND. Local VOA bands use the separate by_area bindings." }, "axiom": { "metric_name": "voa/council_tax/total", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/measure_simulation.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/measure_simulation.py index 67e35d3d2..959b5eab2 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/measure_simulation.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/measure_simulation.py @@ -27,6 +27,66 @@ "benunit": "benunit_id", "household": "household_id", } +_UC_CALIBRATION_VARIABLES = frozenset( + {"uc_calibration_family_type", "uc_calibration_child_count"} +) + + +def _uc_calibration_composition( + frame: Any, simulation: Any, year: int +) -> tuple[np.ndarray, np.ndarray]: + """Measure FRS families without promoting an older child to a partner. + + FRS ``is_parent`` identifies adult-file members of benefit units with + children, including unmarried partners; ``is_married`` alone would miss + cohabiting couples. In units without recorded children all members are + the single claimant or couple. These retained roles survive SPI cloning. + + DWP's post-April-2019 child-presence definition includes reported under-20 + children beyond those eligible for a UC child element. Include those FRS + child members as well as UC qualifying children, never the claimants: + https://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/webapi/metadata/UC_Households/Family%20Type.html + This is a calibration composition proxy, not a change to UC entitlement. + """ + person = frame.table("person") + benunit = frame.table("benunit") + member_ids = person["person_benunit_id"].to_numpy() + ids = benunit["benunit_id"].to_numpy() + dependent = ( + pd.Series(benunit["dependent_children"].to_numpy(), index=ids) + .loc[member_ids] + .to_numpy() + ) + claimant = ( + person["is_benunit_head"].to_numpy(dtype=bool) + | person["is_parent"].to_numpy(dtype=bool) + | (dependent == 0) + ) + claimant_count = ( + pd.Series(claimant).groupby(member_ids).sum().reindex(ids).to_numpy() + ) + if not np.isin(claimant_count, [1, 2]).all(): + raise ValueError( + "UC calibration families require one or two relationship-defined " + "claimants per benefit unit." + ) + qualifying = _values( + simulation.calculate( + "is_child_or_qualifying_young_person_for_universal_credit", year + ) + ).astype(bool) + if len(qualifying) != len(person): + raise ValueError("UC child status must align with the person table.") + children = ~claimant & (qualifying | (person["age"].to_numpy(dtype=float) < 20)) + child_count = pd.Series(children).groupby(member_ids).sum().reindex(ids).to_numpy() + couple = claimant_count == 2 + has_children = child_count > 0 + family_type = np.select( + [couple & has_children, couple, has_children], + ["COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN", "COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN", "LONE_PARENT"], + default="SINGLE", + ) + return family_type, child_count.astype(float) def compute_uk_measure_input( @@ -34,6 +94,15 @@ def compute_uk_measure_input( ) -> tuple[np.ndarray, str]: """Compute one policyengine-uk variable at the requested entity grain.""" + if variable in _UC_CALIBRATION_VARIABLES: + if entity != "benunit": + raise KeyError(f"UC calibration composition is benunit-only: {entity}") + family_type, child_count = _uc_calibration_composition(frame, simulation, year) + values = ( + family_type if variable == "uc_calibration_family_type" else child_count + ) + return values, "frs_relationships_and_uc_child_status" + definition = simulation.tax_benefit_system.variables.get(variable) if definition is None: raise KeyError(f"policyengine-uk has no variable {variable!r}") @@ -132,6 +201,8 @@ def knows(self, entity: str, variable: str) -> bool: provider exception instead of the fence's message. """ + if variable in _UC_CALIBRATION_VARIABLES: + return entity == "benunit" definition = self.simulation.tax_benefit_system.variables.get(variable) if definition is None or entity not in _ENTITY_ID: return False @@ -148,6 +219,8 @@ def knows(self, entity: str, variable: str) -> bool: return getattr(definition, "value_type", None) in (int, float) def entity_for(self, variable: str) -> str | None: + if variable in _UC_CALIBRATION_VARIABLES: + return "benunit" definition = self.simulation.tax_benefit_system.variables.get(variable) if definition is None: return None diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_council_tax_targets.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_council_tax_targets.py index acbe724e7..e150eec93 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_council_tax_targets.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_council_tax_targets.py @@ -4,9 +4,19 @@ import json from importlib import resources as importlib_resources +import numpy as np +import pandas as pd import pytest +from microcosm.build.country_spec import load_country_spec +from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.ledger_targets import ( + UKFrameTargetAdapter, + materialize_uk_ledger_targets, +) from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.local_targets import load_uk_population_contract +from microcosm.calibrate import TargetRegistry, TargetSpec +from microcosm.calibrate.matrix import build_constraint_matrix +from microcosm.frame import EntitySchema, Frame, WeightKind, Weights from tools.generate_uk_local_target_references import _area_signed_deferrals @@ -26,6 +36,74 @@ def _membership() -> dict: ) +def test_national_voa_matrix_counts_only_england_for_every_band_and_total() -> None: + """The E92000001 fact must not absorb Wales/Scotland/NI household mass.""" + rows = [ + (country, band) + for country in ("ENGLAND", "WALES", "SCOTLAND", "NORTHERN_IRELAND") + for band in "ABCDEFGH" + ] + ids = np.arange(len(rows), dtype="int64") + frame = Frame( + { + "person": pd.DataFrame( + {"person_id": ids, "person_benunit_id": ids, "person_household_id": ids} + ), + "benunit": pd.DataFrame({"benunit_id": ids}), + "household": pd.DataFrame( + { + "household_id": ids, + "country": [x[0] for x in rows], + "council_tax_band": [x[1] for x in rows], + "household_num_benunits": np.ones(len(rows)), + } + ), + }, + EntitySchema(group_entities=("benunit", "household")), + {"household": Weights(np.ones(len(rows)), WeightKind.DESIGN)}, + ) + refs = [ + r + for r in load_country_spec("uk").target_references + if r.name.startswith("voa.council_tax_stock.") + ] + assert len(refs) == 9 + assert all(r.ledger_selector["geography_id"] == "E92000001" for r in refs) + registry = TargetRegistry( + [ + TargetSpec( + name=r.name, + entity=r.entity, + measure=r.measure, + value=1, + period=2025, + source="synthetic", + metadata=dict(r.metadata), + ) + for r in refs + ], + country="uk", + ) + adapter = UKFrameTargetAdapter(frame) + result = materialize_uk_ledger_targets( + adapter, registry, period=2025, band_edge_registry=registry + ) + assert not result.skipped + problem = build_constraint_matrix( + adapter.to_frame(), registry.to_target_set(), weight_entity="household" + ) + for name, values in zip(problem.names, problem.matrix.toarray(), strict=True): + band = ( + name.split("@")[0].rsplit("band_", 1)[-1].upper() + if "band_" in name + else None + ) + expected = [ + country == "ENGLAND" and (band is None or b == band) for country, b in rows + ] + np.testing.assert_array_equal(values, expected, err_msg=name) + + def test_council_tax_band_cells_activate_and_defer_as_measured() -> None: membership = _membership() expected_active = { diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_ledger_targets.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_ledger_targets.py index 14981dc47..0781c8711 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_ledger_targets.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_ledger_targets.py @@ -788,14 +788,14 @@ def _uc_composition_frame(): "benunit": pd.DataFrame( { "benunit_id": np.arange(4), - "family_type": [ + "uc_calibration_family_type": [ "LONE_PARENT", "SINGLE", "LONE_PARENT", "SINGLE", ], "universal_credit": [100.0, 0.0, 0.0, 100.0], - "num_children": [1, 0, 1, 0], + "uc_calibration_child_count": [1, 0, 1, 0], } ), "household": pd.DataFrame({"household_id": np.arange(2)}), diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_population_targets.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_population_targets.py index e0ddf8278..c61d18de0 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_population_targets.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_population_targets.py @@ -588,8 +588,8 @@ def test_uk_uc_composition_and_disability_children_targets_are_rebound() -> None } allowed_filter_variables = { "universal_credit", - "num_children", - "family_type", + "uc_calibration_child_count", + "uc_calibration_family_type", } for target_id in composition_target_ids: diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_uc_family.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_uc_family.py new file mode 100644 index 000000000..8dadb9a30 --- /dev/null +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_uc_family.py @@ -0,0 +1,85 @@ +"""UC calibration family categories respect retained FRS relationships.""" + +from types import SimpleNamespace + +import numpy as np +import pandas as pd +import pytest + +from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.measure_simulation import compute_uk_measure_input + + +def _fixture(): + # Single parent + 18-year-old QYP; unmarried parents + child; + # childless couple including an 18-year-old partner; single claimant; + # parent + reported 19-year-old who is not eligible for the child element. + people = pd.DataFrame( + { + "person_id": np.arange(10), + "person_benunit_id": [10, 10, 20, 20, 20, 30, 30, 40, 50, 50], + "age": [49, 18, 35, 36, 8, 19, 18, 18, 45, 19], + "is_benunit_head": [1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0], + "is_parent": [1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 0], + } + ) + benunits = pd.DataFrame( + { + "benunit_id": [50, 30, 10, 40, 20], # deliberately different order + "dependent_children": [1, 0, 1, 0, 1], + "is_married": [False] * 5, # cohabiting couples must remain couples + } + ) + frame = SimpleNamespace( + table=lambda entity: {"person": people, "benunit": benunits}[entity] + ) + child_variable = "is_child_or_qualifying_young_person_for_universal_credit" + sim = SimpleNamespace( + tax_benefit_system=SimpleNamespace(variables={}), + calculate=lambda variable, year: ( + np.array([False, True, False, False, True, True, True, True, False, False]) + if variable == child_variable + else None + ), + ) + return frame, sim + + +def test_uc_family_type_uses_relationships_and_recognises_older_children(): + frame, sim = _fixture() + values, route = compute_uk_measure_input( + frame, sim, "benunit", "uc_calibration_family_type", 2025 + ) + assert values.tolist() == [ + "LONE_PARENT", + "COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN", + "LONE_PARENT", + "SINGLE", + "COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN", + ] + assert route == "frs_relationships_and_uc_child_status" + + +def test_uc_child_count_excludes_young_claimants_and_includes_reported_children(): + frame, sim = _fixture() + values, _ = compute_uk_measure_input( + frame, sim, "benunit", "uc_calibration_child_count", 2025 + ) + assert values.tolist() == [1, 0, 1, 0, 1] + + +def test_uc_family_measure_refuses_missing_source_relationships(): + frame, sim = _fixture() + frame.table("person").drop(columns="is_parent", inplace=True) + with pytest.raises(KeyError, match="is_parent"): + compute_uk_measure_input( + frame, sim, "benunit", "uc_calibration_family_type", 2025 + ) + + +def test_uc_family_measure_refuses_ambiguous_claimant_count(): + frame, sim = _fixture() + frame.table("person").loc[4, "is_parent"] = 1 + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="one or two.*claimants"): + compute_uk_measure_input( + frame, sim, "benunit", "uc_calibration_family_type", 2025 + ) From 68fca7edfbfd091299ccb82c8a707c4c438b0617 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: =?UTF-8?q?Mar=C3=ADa=20Juaristi?= <127882282+juaristi22@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Mon, 7 Sep 2026 13:18:55 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 08/12] Record corrected national calibration comparison and full UC band inventory --- .../879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md | 84 + experiments/879-publication-spi-comparison.md | 2 + experiments/879-uc-target-inventory.md | 94 + .../uk-corrected-measurement-comparison.json | 9058 +++++++++++++++++ .../tests/test_country_spec.py | 2 + 5 files changed, 9240 insertions(+) create mode 100644 experiments/879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md create mode 100644 experiments/879-uc-target-inventory.md create mode 100644 experiments/receipts/uk-corrected-measurement-comparison.json diff --git a/experiments/879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md b/experiments/879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md new file mode 100644 index 000000000..817bc361d --- /dev/null +++ b/experiments/879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md @@ -0,0 +1,84 @@ +# PR 879: matched national comparison after measurement corrections + +Both requested measurement corrections are implemented and the matched national calibrations are complete. The corrected SPI comparison reduces loss by **39.81%**, but remains release-blocked. England council-tax measurements now fit closely. The two high-payment childless-couple bands are empty in both corrected spines, establishing a support gap rather than a treatment-only regression. + +## What changed + +- National VOA bands A–H and total explicitly require `country == ENGLAND`, matching their `E92000001` facts. Local VOA and Scottish bindings are unchanged. +- The UC payment-distribution and family-composition measurements use retained FRS claimant/parent roles rather than a generic adult count. This preserves cohabiting couples and prevents an older child becoming a partner. UC child counts include reported child members under 20 and native UC child/qualifying-young-person status, excluding the claimants themselves. The five child-count targets use the same child definition. +- SPI price-year corrections, income draws, take-up, target values, all 44 measure exclusions, reviewed fit exclusions, solver settings and gates are unchanged. + +This is a measurement correction. Every UC award in each rerun was checked bit-for-bit against its original full-model award before solving. The underlying UK model still has a separate standard-allowance relationship error; relabelling calibration families does not repair entitlement. + +## Controlled experiment and matrix verification + +Both runs reuse byte-identical copies of the complete 2024 spines already built on the publication control and SPI treatment. The common measurement code is `117860efe96b4fc1e336e0c9bfab10917cd3aa59`. The control spine originated at `d43b4203`; the SPI spine at `fc49b482`. Both calibrate 2025 using UK 2.94.0 / Core 3.31.0, Chronicle `6fb700e`, 371 identical active targets, 1,500 epochs, family-equal loss weights, learning rate 0.02, maximum weight ratio 10 and seed 0. + +Before either optimizer ran, all nine actual VOA matrix rows were asserted equal to the appropriate England indicator derived independently from the nine English regions. All 84 active UC payment-band rows were checked against the corrected family masks, actual band bounds and benefit-unit-to-household links. Full-register edges were retained so existing exclusions do not widen adjacent bands. The comparison receipt verifies unchanged initial weights and bit-identical matrix rows outside the authorized VOA and UC-composition changes. Original and copied spine hashes remain equal after both runs. + +## Results + +| Corrected run | Final loss | Targets within 10% | Effective sample size | +|---|---:|---:|---:| +| Control | 0.021724747 | 337 / 371 | 6,127.6 | +| SPI treatment | 0.013076866 | 341 / 371 | 6,110.6 | + +The previous and corrected runs use different measurement definitions, so the within-pair SPI contrast is the controlled comparison. The four columns below show how correcting those definitions also changes the apparent baseline problems. + +| Target | Previous control error | Previous SPI error | Corrected control error | Corrected SPI error | +|---|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| VOA England Band A | +22.804% | +28.182% | +0.049% | -0.027% | +| VOA England total dwellings | +15.930% | +15.787% | +0.036% | +0.010% | +| Income tax | -12.151% | -12.562% | -12.067% | -12.709% | +| Total state pension | -8.136% | -11.695% | -7.909% | -11.430% | +| UC single with children | -35.309% | -34.525% | -31.365% | -27.923% | +| UC total benefit units | -13.400% | -12.975% | -11.189% | -10.006% | +| UC childless couples, £27.6–28.8k | -0.014% | -100.000% | -100.000% | -100.000% | +| UC childless couples, highest band | +0.270% | +0.228% | -100.000% | -100.000% | +| OBR capital gains tax | +44.180% | +43.744% | +44.919% | +44.819% | + +England Band A now has weighted estimates of 6,106,286 and 6,101,679, against 6,103,320. These are actual recalibrated estimates, superseding the earlier fixed-weight England-only diagnostic. Other targets still compete through the common household weights. Interest targets account for 91.5% of the net objective gain, so lower total loss should not be treated as uniform improvement in joint tax/benefit quality. + +## Reassessing the high-payment childless-couple bands + +The formerly decisive two duplicated records are classified as lone-parent benefit units in both runs. Their awards remain £27,646.60 in the control and £27,489.43 in the SPI treatment. Neither provides support for the corrected childless-couple distribution. The correction changes family classification for 769 / 768 benefit-unit rows, of which 144 / 154 have positive UC in control / treatment. + +The support columns below show **benefit-unit rows / unique source benefit units**. Duplicated or SPI-cloned rows are not independent source cases. + +| Annual band (rounded bounds) | Status | Control support | SPI support | Control error | SPI error | +|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| £20,400–£21,600 | Active | 8 / 4 | 6 / 3 | +0.06% | +0.52% | +| £21,600–£22,800 | Active | 2 / 1 | 2 / 1 | +0.03% | -0.03% | +| £22,800–£24,000 | Active | 2 / 1 | 2 / 1 | +0.68% | +0.59% | +| £24,000–£25,200 | Active | 6 / 3 | 6 / 3 | +0.45% | +0.06% | +| £25,200–£26,400 | Active | 4 / 2 | 4 / 2 | -0.24% | -0.31% | +| £26,400–£27,600 | Excluded | 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 | -100.00% | -100.00% | +| £27,600–£28,800 | Active | 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 | -100.00% | -100.00% | +| £28,800+ (highest labelled band) | Active | 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 | -100.00% | -100.00% | + +There are 14 / 13 active payment-band targets with fewer than five unique source benefit units in control / treatment. All 100 bands, including excluded bands, have row counts, unique-source counts and weighted results in the companion receipt. The old two-row fit is not the success baseline. These tails need genuine support; a good weighted fit on one duplicated source case would still be fragile. + +## Gate verdict + +Both reruns remain blocked by the unchanged `uk_target_fit` gate and refuse calibrated H5 export. The corrected SPI run's unreviewed target-fit failures are: + +| Target | Corrected SPI error | +|---|---:| +| `dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_27_600_to_28_800@2025` | -100.000% | +| `dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_28_800_to_30_000@2025` | -100.000% | +| `hmrc/self_employment_income_income_band_50_000_to_70_000@2025` | +34.485% | +| `hmrc/state_pension_income_band_20_000_to_30_000@2025` | +27.941% | + +The existing reviewed private-pension count exclusion for the £100–150k income band is stale in both runs because the result is back inside its bound. The exclusion for UC households with exactly two children is also stale in the corrected treatment. Both remain unchanged in this controlled comparison. The receipt records the full gate statuses. This is not a certified dataset or a release-readiness claim. + +## UC target inventory and remaining measurement limitations + +There are **100 payment-band references: 25 × four family types; 84 active and 16 excluded**. There are also 11 active general UC targets and 15 active two-child-limit targets, giving **110 active UC-related targets** out of 371 overall. Two OBR UC expenditure references are compiled but excluded; including these and the 16 excluded bands gives 128 compiled UC-related references. The separate inventory lists every band, target value and activation status. + +Most source bins span £100 per month, annualised as £1,200. The current interpreter starts at source lower edges × 12 and uses half-open intervals. Its final compiled band is open-ended despite the published £2,400.01–£2,500 monthly label (readable annual label £28,800–£30,000). That existing upper-bound mismatch was held fixed; pooling bands or correcting the tail boundary would be a separate experiment. + +DWP family types use the standard-allowance single/couple rate and reported children under 20. The new FRS relationship measure is a better composition proxy than generic age-only categories, but it does not resolve the pinned model's couple-allowance treatment of some parents with older children, nor partner-ineligibility exceptions or all administrative child-reporting differences. Those limitations should be addressed before interpreting the corrected family cells as exact administrative matches. [DWP Family Type metadata](https://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/webapi/metadata/UC_Households/Family%20Type.html), [DWP child-count metadata](https://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/webapi/metadata/UC_Households/Number%20of%20Children.html). + +## Validation + +Focused validation covers 305 distinct passing tests and two existing skips after updating two stale country-resource-roster assertions to include the already-registered reviewed target-fit exclusion resource. The initial measurement suite had 111 passes and two skips; the additional country-package/calibration/gate suite had 192 passes and two inherited roster failures, both then repaired and rerun successfully. This is not a full-repository test claim. Repository Ruff and CI test-inventory verification pass. The pinned-feed target-reference regeneration test passes. No release gate, exclusion policy, take-up input or original spine was altered. diff --git a/experiments/879-publication-spi-comparison.md b/experiments/879-publication-spi-comparison.md index 676d927f3..03b41b7c3 100644 --- a/experiments/879-publication-spi-comparison.md +++ b/experiments/879-publication-spi-comparison.md @@ -1,5 +1,7 @@ # SPI comparison on the UK publication baseline +Historical measurement baseline. The [subsequent matched comparison](879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md) corrects the national VOA geography and UC family measurements and supersedes the headline fit interpretation below. This report and its original receipt preserve the earlier runs. + This experiment ports the reviewed SPI changes in [#879](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/pull/879) onto the UK publication stack identified in [Max's 7 September handoff](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/665#issuecomment-5562794129). The treatment preserves observed FRS inputs below age 16, rebases selected SPI diff --git a/experiments/879-uc-target-inventory.md b/experiments/879-uc-target-inventory.md new file mode 100644 index 000000000..2827b86bc --- /dev/null +++ b/experiments/879-uc-target-inventory.md @@ -0,0 +1,94 @@ +# Every UC calibration target in the PR 879 national comparison + +The compiled catalogue contains **100 UC payment-distribution targets: 25 published monthly award bands for each of four family types**. **84 are active; 16 have existing reviewed exclusions.** The measurement corrections do not change these targets, target values, exclusions or band edges. + +| Family | Catalogue bands | Active bands | Excluded bands | +|---|---:|---:|---:| +| Single, no children | 25 | 19 | 6 | +| Single, with children | 25 | 16 | 9 | +| Couple, no children | 25 | 24 | 1 | +| Couple, with children | 25 | 25 | 0 | +| Total | 100 | 84 | 16 | + +There are also **26 active UC-related targets outside the payment distribution**: 11 DWP caseload/composition targets and 15 two-child-limit targets. That makes **110 active UC-related targets overall**, out of the 371 active national targets. The two OBR UC expenditure targets are compiled but excluded. Counting those and the 16 excluded payment bands gives **128 compiled UC-related references**. The general `dwp_universal_credit` loss family alone has 95 active rows; the two-child-limit targets belong to a separate loss family. + +## All 100 payment-band target values + +Values below are the target number of UC benefit units, averaged across the pinned April–December 2025 observations; they are not payment amounts. **† means excluded from the solve under the existing register.** The annual column reproduces the readable target labels. + +| Published monthly award band | Annual target label | Single, no children | Single, with children | Couple, no children | Couple, with children | +|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:| +| £0.01–£100.00 | £0–£1,200 | 89,479.3 | 26,670.2 | 7,506.3 | 19,073.6 | +| £100.01–£200.00 | £1,200–£2,400 | 127,403.2 | 36,208.1 | 8,797.0 | 22,775.8 | +| £200.01–£300.00 | £2,400–£3,600 | 197,136.7 | 46,312.8 | 12,256.0 | 26,502.7 | +| £300.01–£400.00 | £3,600–£4,800 | 377,063.1 | 60,310.1 | 10,945.4 | 29,027.0 | +| £400.01–£500.00 | £4,800–£6,000 | 195,983.2 | 67,858.7 | 12,492.4 | 32,427.0 | +| £500.01–£600.00 | £6,000–£7,200 | 114,033.3 | 89,577.4 | 12,979.7 | 34,956.9 | +| £600.01–£700.00 | £7,200–£8,400 | 149,043.8 | 116,076.0 | 16,484.4 | 37,410.8 | +| £700.01–£800.00 | £8,400–£9,600 | 399,750.2 † | 97,511.0 | 15,272.4 | 39,910.3 | +| £800.01–£900.00 | £9,600–£10,800 | 386,411.7 † | 102,343.0 | 19,142.3 | 39,368.0 | +| £900.01–£1,000.00 | £10,800–£12,000 | 104,891.1 | 123,718.1 † | 13,313.3 | 40,805.4 | +| £1,000.01–£1,100.00 | £12,000–£13,200 | 122,035.6 | 125,798.4 † | 16,121.4 | 40,009.6 | +| £1,100.01–£1,200.00 | £13,200–£14,400 | 197,163.2 † | 129,133.7 † | 13,317.3 | 39,972.6 | +| £1,200.01–£1,300.00 | £14,400–£15,600 | 209,497.3 † | 115,856.7 † | 19,657.3 | 40,518.8 | +| £1,300.01–£1,400.00 | £15,600–£16,800 | 149,963.2 | 125,660.2 † | 16,443.2 | 37,118.0 | +| £1,400.01–£1,500.00 | £16,800–£18,000 | 108,689.7 | 135,836.8 † | 13,441.1 | 37,177.8 | +| £1,500.01–£1,600.00 | £18,000–£19,200 | 61,718.7 | 135,444.9 † | 10,728.6 | 37,164.6 | +| £1,600.01–£1,700.00 | £19,200–£20,400 | 34,050.4 | 106,341.9 † | 9,653.2 | 33,309.6 | +| £1,700.01–£1,800.00 | £20,400–£21,600 | 22,338.3 | 85,490.4 | 6,486.9 | 29,102.6 | +| £1,800.01–£1,900.00 | £21,600–£22,800 | 14,685.8 † | 80,226.9 † | 3,981.9 | 27,534.7 | +| £1,900.01–£2,000.00 | £22,800–£24,000 | 11,133.7 | 71,259.6 | 2,761.4 | 25,584.8 | +| £2,000.01–£2,100.00 | £24,000–£25,200 | 6,951.2 | 51,301.7 | 2,131.2 | 22,927.8 | +| £2,100.01–£2,200.00 | £25,200–£26,400 | 6,508.2 | 43,305.2 | 1,475.3 | 20,334.7 | +| £2,200.01–£2,300.00 | £26,400–£27,600 | 5,913.4 | 34,910.6 | 1,073.8 † | 17,535.0 | +| £2,300.01–£2,400.00 | £27,600–£28,800 | 1,884.1 † | 28,513.0 | 746.3 | 15,399.9 | +| £2,400.01–£2,500.00 | £28,800–£30,000 | 1,653.8 | 22,593.0 | 605.8 | 12,836.2 | + +The ordinary bins are £100 a month wide, annualised for the model as £1,200. The underlying source labels begin at £0.01, £100.01, etc.; the materializer multiplies the lower edge by 12 and uses the next band's lower edge as an exclusive upper bound. Thus the first effective interval is [£0.12, £1,200.12), and zero UC is excluded. Removing a target through the exclusion register does not widen neighbouring bands because edges come from the full pre-exclusion catalogue. + +**Upper-tail caveat:** the last published bin is £2,400.01–£2,500.00 a month, with the readable annual label £28,800–£30,000. The current materializer instead gives that last compiled band an infinite upper bound: [£28,800.12, infinity). This is an existing source/measurement mismatch, held constant in the requested comparison; the JSON records the actual upper bound as null. The table must not be read as proof that the solver stops counting UC at £30,000. + +These narrow cells reflect the source catalogue, not sample-size-driven bin selection. A cell can have hundreds of target benefit units but only one unique source case in the spine. The corrected comparison report therefore includes unweighted and unique-source support, alongside weighted fit, for every band. The calibration recipe does not automatically pool thin bands. + +## All other UC-related compiled targets + +Counts are benefit units, children or affected households as named. OBR expenditure targets use their native monetary units rather than counts. + +| Target | Target value | Status | +|---|---:|---| +| `obr.universal_credit_in_cap` | 66,410,800,011.5 | Excluded | +| `obr.universal_credit_outside_cap` | 12,875,549,128.1 | Excluded | +| `dwp.uc.households_children_1` | 1,278,537.0 | Active | +| `dwp.uc.households_children_2` | 1,100,617.6 | Active | +| `dwp.uc.households_children_3` | 494,553.2 | Active | +| `dwp.uc.households_children_4` | 174,668.9 | Active | +| `dwp.uc.households_children_5_or_more` | 77,376.8 | Active | +| `dwp.uc.households_single_no_children` | 3,446,962.0 | Active | +| `dwp.uc.households_single_with_children` | 2,226,220.0 | Active | +| `dwp.uc.households_couple_no_children` | 284,345.6 | Active | +| `dwp.uc.households_couple_with_children` | 899,534.7 | Active | +| `dwp.uc.scotland_households_child_under_1` | 14,333.2 | Active | +| `dwp.uc.two_child_limit.households_affected` | 469,780.0 | Active | +| `dwp.uc.two_child_limit.children_affected` | 597,920.0 | Active | +| `dwp.uc.two_child_limit.children_in_affected_households` | 1,665,540.0 | Active | +| `dwp.uc.two_child_limit.households_3_children` | 297,310.0 | Active | +| `dwp.uc.two_child_limit.children_in_3_children_households` | 891,930.0 | Active | +| `dwp.uc.two_child_limit.households_4_children` | 117,190.0 | Active | +| `dwp.uc.two_child_limit.children_in_4_children_households` | 468,760.0 | Active | +| `dwp.uc.two_child_limit.households_5_children` | 37,020.0 | Active | +| `dwp.uc.two_child_limit.children_in_5_children_households` | 185,120.0 | Active | +| `dwp.uc.two_child_limit.households_6_plus_children` | 18,260.0 | Active | +| `dwp.uc.two_child_limit.children_in_6_plus_children_households` | 119,720.0 | Active | +| `dwp.uc.two_child_limit.households_claimant_pip` | 65,280.0 | Active | +| `dwp.uc.two_child_limit.children_claimant_pip` | 235,270.0 | Active | +| `dwp.uc.two_child_limit.households_disabled_child_element` | 129,630.0 | Active | +| `dwp.uc.two_child_limit.children_disabled_child_element` | 479,460.0 | Active | +| `dwp.uc.households` | 6,758,888.9 | Active | + +## Definitions and provenance + +DWP's family-type statistics use single/couple standard-allowance classification and reported child presence. Since April 2019 the child-presence category includes reported children or young people under 20, beyond those eligible for the UC child element. [DWP Family Type metadata](https://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/webapi/metadata/UC_Households/Family%20Type.html), [DWP Number of Children metadata](https://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/webapi/metadata/UC_Households/Number%20of%20Children.html). + +The corrected Microcosm composition measure uses retained FRS claimant/parent roles and reported under-20 child members, together with the native UC child/qualifying-young-person flag. It is a proxy for the administrative categories: the native model's standard-allowance relationship error and partner-eligibility exceptions are not repaired by relabelling the calibration groups. Those limitations are distinct from the target count and bin widths. + +Source: the full compiled register and unchanged exclusion register for the pinned Chronicle `6fb700e` feed, calibration year 2025, PR 879 measurement comparison. 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"dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN_annual_payment_10_800_to_12_000", + "family": "COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN", + "active": true, + "target": 40805.444444444445, + "lower_annual": 10800.119999999999, + "upper_annual": 12000.119999999999, + "control": { + "support_benefit_units": 32, + "unique_source_benefit_units": 19, + "prior_estimate": 20271.306272709888, + "final_estimate": 40709.402795791626, + "relative_error": -0.002353647900676048 + }, + "treatment": { + "support_benefit_units": 68, + "unique_source_benefit_units": 36, + "prior_estimate": 37770.71435930252, + "final_estimate": 40790.60426902771, + "relative_error": -0.0003636812591746308 + } + } + ], + "validation": { + "focused_tests_passed": 305, + "focused_tests_skipped": 2, + "inherited_resource_roster_assertions_corrected": 2, + "repository_ruff_passed": true, + "ci_inventory_verified": true, + "full_repository_suite_claimed": false + } +} diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_country_spec.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_country_spec.py index 17d1470bb..5cc95916e 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_country_spec.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_country_spec.py @@ -904,6 +904,7 @@ def test_spi_spine_adds_no_country_package_resources(self) -> None: assert legacy_rows == ( "cgt_source_stages.json", "degenerate_reviewed_exclusions.json", + "target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json", "efrs_parity_known_gaps.json", "efrs_parity_reference.json", "frs_release.json", @@ -996,6 +997,7 @@ def test_uk_package_loads(self) -> None: "spec/vintages.yaml", "cgt_source_stages.json", "degenerate_reviewed_exclusions.json", + "target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json", "efrs_parity_known_gaps.json", "efrs_parity_reference.json", "frs_release.json", From a20d8c31936d5d0d4d193891d2c11d74217a038f Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: =?UTF-8?q?Mar=C3=ADa=20Juaristi?= <127882282+juaristi22@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Mon, 7 Sep 2026 14:44:49 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 09/12] Document PR 879 main rebase and preserved calibration provenance --- experiments/879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md | 13 +++++++++++++ 1 file changed, 13 insertions(+) diff --git a/experiments/879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md b/experiments/879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md index 817bc361d..539bc437b 100644 --- a/experiments/879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md +++ b/experiments/879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md @@ -1,5 +1,18 @@ # PR 879: matched national comparison after measurement corrections +> Integration note, 7 September 2026: PR #879 now targets `main`, rebased onto +> `396df96fe7889777f3a7dd737e3305298219e6fa`. The four SPI/measurement and evidence +> commits replayed with identical patches; their rebased tip is `4f000458`. +> The branch also carries the 14 unmerged UK publication-stack prerequisite +> commits on which these experiments depend. The rebase changes no executable +> Python behavior relative to the previously tested PR head `4ccaabba`. +> Calibration receipts, target/exclusion registers and the lockfile are unchanged. +> The calibrations below were not rerun for the rebase: their original source +> commits and artifact identities remain the provenance of the reported results. +> Rebase validation: 458 focused tests passed with four skips; repository Ruff +> lint and CI test-inventory verification passed, and all 51 changed Python files +> passed the formatting check. This is not a full-suite or certification claim. + Both requested measurement corrections are implemented and the matched national calibrations are complete. The corrected SPI comparison reduces loss by **39.81%**, but remains release-blocked. England council-tax measurements now fit closely. The two high-payment childless-couple bands are empty in both corrected spines, establishing a support gap rather than a treatment-only regression. ## What changed From a1aa2c509fb587fee2199505f052b8c687b8661f Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: =?UTF-8?q?Mar=C3=ADa=20Juaristi?= <127882282+juaristi22@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Mon, 7 Sep 2026 16:09:52 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 10/12] Fix issues from review: isolate SPI tests and audit UC measurements --- changelog.d/879-review-fixes.fixed.md | 1 + .../879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md | 67 +- experiments/879-uc-target-inventory.md | 6 +- ...build_879_corrected_measurement_receipt.py | 289 +++ .../uk-corrected-measurement-comparison.json | 1744 +++++++++++++++++ .../uk/target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json | 8 +- .../test_uk_corrected_measurement_receipt.py | 188 ++ .../tests/test_uk_spi_income.py | 6 + .../tests/test_uk_spi_spine.py | 10 + .../tests/test_uk_uc_family.py | 158 ++ 10 files changed, 2458 insertions(+), 19 deletions(-) create mode 100644 changelog.d/879-review-fixes.fixed.md create mode 100644 experiments/build_879_corrected_measurement_receipt.py create mode 100644 packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_corrected_measurement_receipt.py diff --git a/changelog.d/879-review-fixes.fixed.md b/changelog.d/879-review-fixes.fixed.md new file mode 100644 index 000000000..c2487da6a --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/879-review-fixes.fixed.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +Correct optional UK-engine test markers, retain engine-free SPI source-resolution coverage, add independent UC matrix and authenticated retained-evidence checks, and document unresolved UC boundaries, redraw/entitlement limits and historical deferral scope. diff --git a/experiments/879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md b/experiments/879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md index 539bc437b..965cd7212 100644 --- a/experiments/879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md +++ b/experiments/879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md @@ -1,33 +1,51 @@ # PR 879: matched national comparison after measurement corrections -> Integration note, 7 September 2026: PR #879 now targets `main`, rebased onto +> Historical first-rebase note, 7 September 2026: at this stage PR #879 targeted +> `main` and was rebased onto > `396df96fe7889777f3a7dd737e3305298219e6fa`. The four SPI/measurement and evidence > commits replayed with identical patches; their rebased tip is `4f000458`. -> The branch also carries the 14 unmerged UK publication-stack prerequisite +> At that stage the branch also carried the 14 unmerged UK publication-stack prerequisite > commits on which these experiments depend. The rebase changes no executable > Python behavior relative to the previously tested PR head `4ccaabba`. -> Calibration receipts, target/exclusion registers and the lockfile are unchanged. +> That first rebase left calibration receipts, target/exclusion registers and the +> lockfile unchanged. This note does not describe the base of later integrations. > The calibrations below were not rerun for the rebase: their original source > commits and artifact identities remain the provenance of the reported results. -> Rebase validation: 458 focused tests passed with four skips; repository Ruff +> Historical rebase validation (7 September, UK 2.94.0 / Core 3.31.0 installed): +> 458 focused tests passed with four skips; repository Ruff > lint and CI test-inventory verification passed, and all 51 changed Python files > passed the formatting check. This is not a full-suite or certification claim. -Both requested measurement corrections are implemented and the matched national calibrations are complete. The corrected SPI comparison reduces loss by **39.81%**, but remains release-blocked. England council-tax measurements now fit closely. The two high-payment childless-couple bands are empty in both corrected spines, establishing a support gap rather than a treatment-only regression. +The England-scope and FRS-composition corrections are implemented and the matched national calibrations are complete. The UC published-band mismatch and native entitlement limitations below remain unresolved, so this is a conditional comparison, not complete administrative measurement validation. The corrected SPI comparison reduces loss by **39.81%**, but remains release-blocked. England council-tax measurements now fit closely. The two high-payment childless-couple bands are empty in both corrected spines, establishing a support gap rather than a treatment-only regression. ## What changed -- National VOA bands A–H and total explicitly require `country == ENGLAND`, matching their `E92000001` facts. Local VOA and Scottish bindings are unchanged. +- National VOA bands A–H and total explicitly require `country == ENGLAND`, matching their `E92000001` facts. The selected `E92000001` facts cover England within the broader England-and-Wales [VOA publication](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/council-tax-stock-of-properties-2025/council-tax-stock-of-properties-statistical-commentary). Local VOA and Scottish bindings are unchanged. The existing use of household counts as a dwelling-stock proxy remains separate from this geography correction. - The UC payment-distribution and family-composition measurements use retained FRS claimant/parent roles rather than a generic adult count. This preserves cohabiting couples and prevents an older child becoming a partner. UC child counts include reported child members under 20 and native UC child/qualifying-young-person status, excluding the claimants themselves. The five child-count targets use the same child definition. -- SPI price-year corrections, income draws, take-up, target values, all 44 measure exclusions, reviewed fit exclusions, solver settings and gates are unchanged. +- SPI price-year corrections, income draws, take-up, target values, all 44 measure exclusions, reviewed fit-exclusion decisions, solver settings and gates are unchanged. This is a measurement correction. Every UC award in each rerun was checked bit-for-bit against its original full-model award before solving. The underlying UK model still has a separate standard-allowance relationship error; relabelling calibration families does not repair entitlement. ## Controlled experiment and matrix verification -Both runs reuse byte-identical copies of the complete 2024 spines already built on the publication control and SPI treatment. The common measurement code is `117860efe96b4fc1e336e0c9bfab10917cd3aa59`. The control spine originated at `d43b4203`; the SPI spine at `fc49b482`. Both calibrate 2025 using UK 2.94.0 / Core 3.31.0, Chronicle `6fb700e`, 371 identical active targets, 1,500 epochs, family-equal loss weights, learning rate 0.02, maximum weight ratio 10 and seed 0. +Both runs reuse byte-identical copies of the complete 2024 spines already built on the publication control and SPI treatment. The common measurement code is `117860efe96b4fc1e336e0c9bfab10917cd3aa59`. The control spine originated at `d43b4203c6ebe10e062cb3ef3034e66731ea055d`; the SPI spine at `fc49b48200e1e15fe35bb4e15b948992bf03c28d`. Each receipt run now links its explicit `spine_origin_code_pin` to the authenticated earlier comparison receipt and the matching original/copied spine hashes; `code_pin` remains the executed measurement commit. Both calibrate 2025 using UK 2.94.0 / Core 3.31.0, Chronicle `6fb700e`, 371 identical active targets, 1,500 epochs, family-equal loss weights, learning rate 0.02, maximum weight ratio 10 and seed 0. -Before either optimizer ran, all nine actual VOA matrix rows were asserted equal to the appropriate England indicator derived independently from the nine English regions. All 84 active UC payment-band rows were checked against the corrected family masks, actual band bounds and benefit-unit-to-household links. Full-register edges were retained so existing exclusions do not widen adjacent bands. The comparison receipt verifies unchanged initial weights and bit-identical matrix rows outside the authorized VOA and UC-composition changes. Original and copied spine hashes remain equal after both runs. +Before either optimizer ran, all nine actual VOA matrix rows were asserted equal to the appropriate England indicator derived independently from the nine English regions. The historical run script also asserted all 84 active UC payment-band rows against the corrected family masks, actual band bounds and benefit-unit-to-household links. Those families came from the runtime resolver, so that check was not an independent relationship-classification oracle. The original preflight recorded all 100 band inputs/supports but omitted individual UC exact-match flags. Full-register edges were retained so existing exclusions do not widen adjacent bands. The comparison receipt verifies unchanged initial weights and bit-identical matrix rows outside the authorized VOA and UC-composition changes. Original and copied spine hashes remain equal after both runs. + +## Reproducing the retained-evidence audit + +The [evidence builder](build_879_corrected_measurement_receipt.py) reads the original receipts from immutable commit `5a1581e32b107601104ca5c2800100cdf99be42e` and verifies their fixed SHA-256 pins. It authenticates every retained diagnostics, gate, preflight, support, solve and matrix artifact against those committed hashes, and each spine against the earlier source receipt. It then writes a fresh [comparison receipt](receipts/uk-corrected-measurement-comparison.json) containing 84 explicit exact saved-matrix row comparisons per run, with family, bounds, positive-payment predicate, benefit-unit support and nonzero-household counts. It preserves every earlier result and gate decision. + +```bash +uv run --no-sync python experiments/build_879_corrected_measurement_receipt.py \ + --repo . --control /local/measurement_comparison/pub879-control \ + --treatment /local/measurement_comparison/pub879-spi \ + --output /local/corrected-receipt.json +``` + +The retained restricted artifacts must be available locally. The builder authenticates the private composition snapshots before loading them, but their hashes were first recorded during this review repair. They contain saved runtime-resolver families and awards: their new hash pins do not establish independent historical correctness. The new row audit is distinct from the original pre-solve assertions and does not rerun a model or optimizer. Public output contains allowlisted aggregates and hashes, without person/household identifiers or restricted tables. + +The engine-free `test_uk_uc_family.py` regression supplies independent labelled relationship scenarios, tests every included lower edge and adjacent floating-point values, retains the 16 excluded edges while materializing all 84 active rows, and checks that two eligible benefit units in one household contribute two. It covers young claimants, cohabiting partners and children aged 18, 19 and 20. Its high-award case explicitly records the known open-last-band mismatch; passing tests and saved-matrix equality do not certify the published administrative bounds. ## Results @@ -84,14 +102,39 @@ Both reruns remain blocked by the unchanged `uk_target_fit` gate and refuse cali The existing reviewed private-pension count exclusion for the £100–150k income band is stale in both runs because the result is back inside its bound. The exclusion for UC households with exactly two children is also stale in the corrected treatment. Both remain unchanged in this controlled comparison. The receipt records the full gate statuses. This is not a certified dataset or a release-readiness claim. +### Historical UC fit-deferral rationales + +All four UC entries in the [reviewed target-fit register](../packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json) rely on the older #813 composition measurement. Their support, take-up and wealth-draw causal explanations remain historical hypotheses requiring fresh adjudication under the corrected composition; this report does not renew them. + +| Existing entry | Corrected control error | Corrected SPI error | Review status | +|---|---:|---:|---| +| `dwp.uc.households_single_with_children@2025` | -31.365% | -27.923% | Claimant/partner membership changed; #813 support and take-up attribution needs fresh adjudication | +| `dwp.uc.households_children_1@2025` | -26.692% | -29.053% | Revised reported-child membership changes this cell; historical wealth/take-up attribution needs fresh adjudication | +| `dwp.uc.households_children_2@2025` | -34.568% | -21.525% | Revised child membership; now inside 25% in SPI, making the entry stale; fresh adjudication required | +| `dwp.uc.households_children_5_or_more@2025` | -28.504% | -28.532% | Revised child definition also governs this cell; similar residuals do not validate the historical causal attribution; fresh adjudication required | + +Each of the four UC register reasons now retains its original wording verbatim followed by a dated historical-basis annotation, including the two-child entry’s stale treatment result. Every approver, adjudication reference, approval/expiry date and entry remains unchanged. The annotations require fresh adjudication and grant no renewed approval. The comparison receipts retain the original historical register hash; the current file differs only in those four explanatory reason strings. The 25% fit bound and all gate/exclusion decisions remain fixed for this comparison. Neither the #840 source review nor this evidence repair supplies a new input-mass parity waiver, known-gap approval or release authorization. Gate-override source observability is a separate unresolved suggestion; this repair neither adds an override nor changes its reporting. + ## UC target inventory and remaining measurement limitations There are **100 payment-band references: 25 × four family types; 84 active and 16 excluded**. There are also 11 active general UC targets and 15 active two-child-limit targets, giving **110 active UC-related targets** out of 371 overall. Two OBR UC expenditure references are compiled but excluded; including these and the 16 excluded bands gives 128 compiled UC-related references. The separate inventory lists every band, target value and activation status. -Most source bins span £100 per month, annualised as £1,200. The current interpreter starts at source lower edges × 12 and uses half-open intervals. Its final compiled band is open-ended despite the published £2,400.01–£2,500 monthly label (readable annual label £28,800–£30,000). That existing upper-bound mismatch was held fixed; pooling bands or correcting the tail boundary would be a separate experiment. +[DWP payment-band metadata](https://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/webapi/metadata/UC_Households/Monthly%20Award%20Amount%20%28bands%29.html) defines 26 positive-payment categories for the relevant period, including a separate £2,500.01-or-over monthly tail. This register includes only the first 25 for each family. The current interpreter multiplies source lower edges by 12 and takes the next lower edge as its exclusive upper bound: the first interval is [£0.12, £1,200.12), not an exact transcription of the published inclusive-currency endpoints. The highest **included** band becomes [£28,800.12, infinity), despite its bounded £2,400.01–£2,500 monthly source label. For example, a £36,000 annual award enters this bounded-source row even though the source has a separate open-tail category. Full-register edges preserve excluded-cell boundaries; exclusion pruning does not cause this mismatch. + +The catalog omission and finite-band endpoint semantics remain release-blocking measurement debt. [#736](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/736) already tracks omitted no-payment/or-over source rows and is the existing follow-up location. A repair must define currency endpoint handling, bind the omitted tail to its own facts and rerun the matched comparison. Renaming or pooling the current row would not establish the missing source totals. This report preserves the existing 100-row catalogue and all numerical results. + +DWP family types use the awarded standard-allowance single/couple rate and verified reported children under 20. Couples with an ineligible partner can appear as single in the administrative classification; relationship counts alone cannot reproduce that rule. The new FRS relationship measure is a better composition proxy than generic age-only categories, but it does not resolve the pinned model's couple-allowance treatment of some parents with older children, nor partner-ineligibility exceptions or all administrative child-reporting differences. DWP child reporting can also include multigenerational arrangements beyond child-element eligibility. The source review traced FRS head/parent/dependent-child construction, but did not independently adjudicate the vintage FRS role dictionary. In particular, the `famtypb2` mapping and downstream native-model relationship behavior need a separate source-dictionary and entitlement review; no completed model repair is claimed here. These limitations prevent interpreting the corrected family cells as exact administrative matches. [DWP Family Type metadata](https://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/webapi/metadata/UC_Households/Family%20Type.html), [DWP child-count metadata](https://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/webapi/metadata/UC_Households/Number%20of%20Children.html). + +The exact-vintage [FRS 2024–25 glossary](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/family-resources-survey-financial-year-2024-to-2025/family-resources-survey-background-information-and-methodology#benefit-unit-or-family) supports recognising cohabiting couples and dependent children aged 16–19: FRS adults are people aged 16+ who are not dependent children; older dependent children must meet partnership, residence and education/training conditions. A benefit unit comprises a single adult or married/cohabiting couple and dependent children. Its survey head is the household reference person where present, otherwise the first interview-listed member; that designation does not establish UC claimant eligibility. The remaining dictionary gap is narrower: the numeric `uperson`, `depchldb` and `famtypb2` codes, missing-code conventions and exact adult/child file routing were not independently validated. `is_parent` is a generated adult-file role proxy, not a verified raw biological-parent field. -DWP family types use the standard-allowance single/couple rate and reported children under 20. The new FRS relationship measure is a better composition proxy than generic age-only categories, but it does not resolve the pinned model's couple-allowance treatment of some parents with older children, nor partner-ineligibility exceptions or all administrative child-reporting differences. Those limitations should be addressed before interpreting the corrected family cells as exact administrative matches. [DWP Family Type metadata](https://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/webapi/metadata/UC_Households/Family%20Type.html), [DWP child-count metadata](https://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/webapi/metadata/UC_Households/Number%20of%20Children.html). +### Redraw and nominal-income limitations + +UC reporter redraw still uses the legacy `is_married`/qualifying-young-person predictors, `has_non_child_member` screen and transition categories. Calibration now uses the FRS relationship composition proxy. For example, the legacy redraw can call a lone young claimant `child_only` while calibration calls that claimant `SINGLE`; cohabiting-couple categories can also differ. The redraw implementation/settings and the already generated support are held fixed when remeasuring the two retained spines. This preserves the conditional experiment but leaves a support-generation and downstream classification limitation. Aligning redraw, adjudicating FRS source roles, fixing the native standard-allowance relationship problem and handling partner eligibility are separate substantive work; none is fixed by relabelling the calibration rows. + +The SPI `hmrc_spi_state_pension_income` leaf remains nominal from 2022 even though the pinned engine exposes a state-pension uprating index. That index was not selected for this treatment; there is no evidence here that holding the leaf nominal is preferable. The retained leaf can affect HMRC assessable-income bands and component amounts. A separate uprating sensitivity remains unmeasured, so the treatment does not establish complete monetary alignment. The original [#840 experiment](840-spi-income-coherence.md) records the selected scope. ## Validation -Focused validation covers 305 distinct passing tests and two existing skips after updating two stale country-resource-roster assertions to include the already-registered reviewed target-fit exclusion resource. The initial measurement suite had 111 passes and two skips; the additional country-package/calibration/gate suite had 192 passes and two inherited roster failures, both then repaired and rerun successfully. This is not a full-repository test claim. Repository Ruff and CI test-inventory verification pass. The pinned-feed target-reference regeneration test passes. No release gate, exclusion policy, take-up input or original spine was altered. +Historical measurement validation on 7 September 2026, with UK 2.94.0 / Core 3.31.0 installed, covered 305 distinct passing tests and two existing skips after updating two stale country-resource-roster assertions to include the already-registered reviewed target-fit exclusion resource. The initial measurement suite had 111 passes and two skips; the additional country-package/calibration/gate suite had 192 passes and two inherited roster failures, both then repaired and rerun successfully. This is not a full-repository test claim. Repository Ruff, CI test-inventory verification and the pinned-feed target-reference regeneration test passed in that historical scope. The separate 458-pass/four-skip rebase validation above covered a later focused set; neither count describes engine-free CI. No release gate, exclusion policy, take-up input or original spine was altered. + +Review-repair validation on 7 September is separate: the two SPI test files pass without engines on Python 3.13 and 3.14 (39 passes, 14 skips each), and with the existing UK 2.94.0 / Core 3.31.0 environment (52 passes, one skip). Real-engine tests retain `requires_uk` coverage; parsed/path-equivalence coverage stubs deterministic uprating data and runs without an engine. The independent UC file passes five tests; the evidence-builder file passes 15 tests, including tamper refusal for all retained inputs and exact-row/privacy checks. The retained-evidence builder completed both 84-row audits without rerunning calibration. These are focused checks, not data certification. diff --git a/experiments/879-uc-target-inventory.md b/experiments/879-uc-target-inventory.md index 2827b86bc..2d1241191 100644 --- a/experiments/879-uc-target-inventory.md +++ b/experiments/879-uc-target-inventory.md @@ -1,6 +1,6 @@ # Every UC calibration target in the PR 879 national comparison -The compiled catalogue contains **100 UC payment-distribution targets: 25 published monthly award bands for each of four family types**. **84 are active; 16 have existing reviewed exclusions.** The measurement corrections do not change these targets, target values, exclusions or band edges. +The compiled catalogue contains **100 UC payment-distribution targets: 25 included monthly award bands for each of four family types**. **84 are active; 16 have existing reviewed exclusions.** The measurement corrections do not change these targets, target values, exclusions or band edges. | Family | Catalogue bands | Active bands | Excluded bands | |---|---:|---:|---:| @@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ The compiled catalogue contains **100 UC payment-distribution targets: 25 publis There are also **26 active UC-related targets outside the payment distribution**: 11 DWP caseload/composition targets and 15 two-child-limit targets. That makes **110 active UC-related targets overall**, out of the 371 active national targets. The two OBR UC expenditure targets are compiled but excluded. Counting those and the 16 excluded payment bands gives **128 compiled UC-related references**. The general `dwp_universal_credit` loss family alone has 95 active rows; the two-child-limit targets belong to a separate loss family. -## All 100 payment-band target values +## All 100 included payment-band target values Values below are the target number of UC benefit units, averaged across the pinned April–December 2025 observations; they are not payment amounts. **† means excluded from the solve under the existing register.** The annual column reproduces the readable target labels. @@ -46,7 +46,7 @@ Values below are the target number of UC benefit units, averaged across the pinn The ordinary bins are £100 a month wide, annualised for the model as £1,200. The underlying source labels begin at £0.01, £100.01, etc.; the materializer multiplies the lower edge by 12 and uses the next band's lower edge as an exclusive upper bound. Thus the first effective interval is [£0.12, £1,200.12), and zero UC is excluded. Removing a target through the exclusion register does not widen neighbouring bands because edges come from the full pre-exclusion catalogue. -**Upper-tail caveat:** the last published bin is £2,400.01–£2,500.00 a month, with the readable annual label £28,800–£30,000. The current materializer instead gives that last compiled band an infinite upper bound: [£28,800.12, infinity). This is an existing source/measurement mismatch, held constant in the requested comparison; the JSON records the actual upper bound as null. The table must not be read as proof that the solver stops counting UC at £30,000. +**Upper-tail caveat:** the highest included bin is £2,400.01–£2,500.00 a month, with the readable annual label £28,800–£30,000. The current materializer instead gives that last compiled band an infinite upper bound: [£28,800.12, infinity). This is an existing source/measurement mismatch, held constant in the requested comparison; the JSON records the actual upper bound as null. The table must not be read as proof that the solver stops counting UC at £30,000. [DWP publishes](https://stat-xplore.dwp.gov.uk/webapi/metadata/UC_Households/Monthly%20Award%20Amount%20%28bands%29.html) 26 positive-payment categories for months from September 2022, including a separate £2,500.01-or-over tail omitted from this 25-bin register. A £36,000 annual award therefore enters a row whose source label is bounded. The next-lower-edge convention also differs from the published inclusive-currency endpoints by the annualised penny offsets. The catalog and boundary repair belongs with [#736](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/736), which already tracks omitted no-payment/or-over source rows, and requires new matched measurements; these historical targets and results remain unchanged. These narrow cells reflect the source catalogue, not sample-size-driven bin selection. A cell can have hundreds of target benefit units but only one unique source case in the spine. The corrected comparison report therefore includes unweighted and unique-source support, alongside weighted fit, for every band. The calibration recipe does not automatically pool thin bands. diff --git a/experiments/build_879_corrected_measurement_receipt.py b/experiments/build_879_corrected_measurement_receipt.py new file mode 100644 index 000000000..85e8ef6b9 --- /dev/null +++ b/experiments/build_879_corrected_measurement_receipt.py @@ -0,0 +1,289 @@ +"""Authenticate retained PR 879 evidence and add aggregate UC matrix audits. + +This reads the original committed comparison receipts from an immutable git +revision, not a previous output. It preserves their numerical results and gates; +it does not run an engine, optimizer, or release. Local restricted artifacts are +required. Only allowlisted aggregate fields and content hashes enter the output. + +The private composition snapshots were first hash-pinned during this review +repair. They are supplementary saved resolver output, not independently derived +families or a retrospectively authenticated pre-solve assertion. The historical +preflight, saved matrix, solve, and spine hashes already existed in committed +receipts. Independent relationship/boundary coverage lives in test_uk_uc_family.py. + + uv run --no-sync python experiments/build_879_corrected_measurement_receipt.py \ + --repo . --control /local/pub879-control --treatment /local/pub879-spi \ + --output /local/corrected-receipt.json +""" + +from __future__ import annotations + +import argparse +import copy +import hashlib +import json +import subprocess +from pathlib import Path + +import numpy as np +import pandas as pd +from scipy import sparse + +SOURCE_COMMIT = "5a1581e32b107601104ca5c2800100cdf99be42e" +BASELINE_PATH = "experiments/receipts/uk-corrected-measurement-comparison.json" +ORIGIN_PATH = "experiments/receipts/uk-publication-spi-comparison.json" +BASELINE_SHA256 = "4e8bda6ba2eba3b7df56b56a565a6dd488c7d9c3739d46e4fb44bc45a41b6a93" +ORIGIN_SHA256 = "71502cc84f0cc8a896f32c5bceb7472839afa49c693ce79e2a86783f65ea52fa" +COMPOSITION_SHA256 = { + "pub879-control": "08ab5b7507a857b6d9836c7895d7ee185acf583d96b5c27c6dc6eeb0bd197a53", + "pub879-spi": "9f103aeffef98ec05e14dad28bb6c2fd7b5b564b40248015ced33982baa3998e", +} +FAMILIES = {"SINGLE", "LONE_PARENT", "COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN", "COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN"} +BAND_FIELDS = ( + "name", + "family", + "active", + "target", + "lower_annual", + "upper_annual", + "support_benefit_units", + "unique_source_benefit_units", + "prior_estimate", +) + + +def file_sha256(path): + digest = hashlib.sha256() + with Path(path).open("rb") as stream: + for block in iter(lambda: stream.read(1024 * 1024), b""): + digest.update(block) + return digest.hexdigest() + + +def require(condition, message): + if not condition: + raise ValueError(message) + + +def authenticate(path, expected): + require(file_sha256(path) == expected, f"SHA-256 mismatch: {Path(path).name}") + + +def committed_json(repo, path, expected): + raw = subprocess.check_output(["git", "show", f"{SOURCE_COMMIT}:{path}"], cwd=repo) + require( + hashlib.sha256(raw).hexdigest() == expected, f"Receipt hash mismatch: {path}" + ) + return json.loads(raw) + + +def audit_saved_matrix( + bands, composition, household_ids, names, matrix, initial_weights +): + """Compare every active row with saved family/award counts, without IDs in output.""" + require(not composition.benunit_id.duplicated().any(), "Duplicate composition rows") + require(len(set(household_ids)) == len(household_ids), "Duplicate household rows") + require( + set(composition.household_id) <= set(household_ids), "Unlinked benefit units" + ) + require(set(composition.family) <= FAMILIES, "Unknown saved family") + require(np.isfinite(composition.uc).all(), "Nonfinite saved awards") + names = [str(name) for name in names] + require(len(set(names)) == len(names), "Duplicate matrix names") + require(matrix.shape == (len(names), len(household_ids)), "Matrix shape mismatch") + require(len(initial_weights) == len(household_ids), "Initial weight shape mismatch") + expected_names = {f"{band['name']}@2025" for band in bands if band["active"]} + actual_names = {name for name in names if name.startswith("dwp/uc_payment_dist/")} + require(actual_names == expected_names, "Active UC matrix roster mismatch") + rows = [] + for band in bands: + if not band["active"]: + continue + name = f"{band['name']}@2025" + lower, upper = band["lower_annual"], band["upper_annual"] + mask = ( + (composition.family == band["family"]) + & (composition.uc > 0) + & (composition.uc >= lower) + ) + if upper is not None: + mask &= composition.uc < upper + expected = ( + pd.Series(mask.to_numpy(dtype=float)) + .groupby(composition.household_id.to_numpy()) + .sum() + .reindex(household_ids, fill_value=0) + .to_numpy() + ) + index = names.index(name) + actual = matrix[index : index + 1].toarray().ravel() + require( + np.array_equal(actual, expected), f"Saved UC matrix row mismatch: {name}" + ) + require( + int(mask.sum()) == band["support_benefit_units"], + f"Preflight support mismatch: {name}", + ) + require( + np.isclose( + actual @ initial_weights, band["prior_estimate"], rtol=1e-12, atol=1e-8 + ), + f"Preflight prior mismatch: {name}", + ) + # A strict allowlist: no arbitrary preflight or private table columns. + rows.append( + { + "name": name, + "family": band["family"], + "lower_annual": lower, + "upper_annual": upper, + "positive_payment_required": True, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": True, + "support_benefit_units": int(mask.sum()), + "nonzero_households": int(np.count_nonzero(actual)), + } + ) + return rows + + +def add_spine_origin(run, origin, origin_key): + source = origin["runs"][origin_key] + digest = source["file_hashes"]["spine.h5"] + require( + set(run["input_identity"].values()) == {digest}, "Spine origin hash mismatch" + ) + run["spine_origin_code_pin"] = source["code_pin"] + run["spine_origin_receipt"] = { + "path": ORIGIN_PATH, + "git_revision": SOURCE_COMMIT, + "sha256": ORIGIN_SHA256, + "run_key": origin_key, + "artifact": "spine.h5", + "artifact_sha256": digest, + "all_corrected_input_identity_hashes_match": True, + } + + +def build_receipt(repo, directories): + baseline = committed_json(repo, BASELINE_PATH, BASELINE_SHA256) + origin = committed_json(repo, ORIGIN_PATH, ORIGIN_SHA256) + receipt = copy.deepcopy(baseline) + receipt["evidence_completion"] = { + "date": "2026-09-07", + "builder": "experiments/build_879_corrected_measurement_receipt.py", + "baseline_receipt": { + "path": BASELINE_PATH, + "git_revision": SOURCE_COMMIT, + "sha256": BASELINE_SHA256, + }, + "calibration_rerun": False, + "historical_results_and_gate_decisions_preserved": True, + "historical_uc_check_scope": ( + "The run script asserted 84 active UC rows before solving using runtime-resolved " + "families. The authenticated preflight records all 100 band inputs/supports, " + "but did not serialize an individual exact-match assertion for UC rows." + ), + "saved_matrix_audit_scope": ( + "New exact row comparisons against retained composition snapshots. Snapshot hashes " + "were first pinned during this review; family values remain saved resolver output. " + "Independent relationship and full-register boundary tests are synthetic." + ), + "published_tail_boundary_correctness_claimed": False, + } + for label, origin_key in [ + ("pub879-control", "control"), + ("pub879-spi", "treatment"), + ]: + directory = Path(directories[label]) + run = receipt["runs"][label] + for name, digest in run["artifact_sha256"].items(): + authenticate(directory / name, digest) + add_spine_origin(run, origin, origin_key) + authenticate(directory / "spine.h5", run["input_identity"]["before"]) + snapshot_path = directory / "uc_composition_private.pkl" + authenticate(snapshot_path, COMPOSITION_SHA256[label]) + preflight = json.loads((directory / "matrix_preflight.json").read_text()) + bands = [ + {field: row[field] for field in BAND_FIELDS} + for row in preflight["payment_bands"] + ] + require( + len(bands) == 100 and len({b["name"] for b in bands}) == 100, + "Expected 100 unique UC bands", + ) + require(sum(b["active"] for b in bands) == 84, "Expected 84 active UC bands") + require( + preflight["all_uc_awards_exactly_unchanged"] is True, + "Historical award-invariance check missing", + ) + require( + preflight["voa"] == run["pre_solve_matrix_checks"]["voa"], + "Historical VOA check mismatch", + ) + for band in bands: + published = next( + row + for row in receipt["uc_payment_band_support"] + if row["name"] == band["name"] + ) + for field in ("family", "active", "target", "lower_annual", "upper_annual"): + require( + band[field] == published[field], f"Band input mismatch: {field}" + ) + for field in ( + "support_benefit_units", + "unique_source_benefit_units", + "prior_estimate", + ): + require( + band[field] == published[origin_key][field], + f"Band aggregate mismatch: {field}", + ) + # These pickle/PyTables inputs are loaded only after checking pinned hashes. + composition = pd.read_pickle(snapshot_path) + with pd.HDFStore(directory / "spine.h5", mode="r") as store: + household_ids = store["household"].household_id.to_numpy() + with np.load(directory / "solve.npz", allow_pickle=False) as solve: + rows = audit_saved_matrix( + bands, + composition, + household_ids, + solve["names"], + sparse.load_npz(directory / "matrix.npz"), + solve["initial_weights"], + ) + run["saved_uc_matrix_audit"] = { + "evidence_type": "new_saved_matrix_audit", + "audit_date": "2026-09-07", + "preflight_sha256": run["artifact_sha256"]["matrix_preflight.json"], + "matrix_sha256": run["artifact_sha256"]["matrix.npz"], + "solve_sha256": run["artifact_sha256"]["solve.npz"], + "composition_snapshot_sha256": COMPOSITION_SHA256[label], + "composition_pin_scope": "first recorded during review repair; saved runtime resolver output", + "spine_sha256": run["input_identity"]["before"], + "full_band_count": 100, + "active_rows_verified": len(rows), + "excluded_band_count": 16, + "rows": rows, + } + return receipt + + +def main(): + parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__) + parser.add_argument("--repo", type=Path, required=True) + parser.add_argument("--control", type=Path, required=True) + parser.add_argument("--treatment", type=Path, required=True) + parser.add_argument("--output", type=Path, required=True) + args = parser.parse_args() + receipt = build_receipt( + args.repo, {"pub879-control": args.control, "pub879-spi": args.treatment} + ) + args.output.write_text(json.dumps(receipt, indent=2, allow_nan=False) + "\n") + print( + "Authenticated retained evidence; verified 84 UC rows per run; no calibration rerun." + ) + + +if __name__ == "__main__": + main() diff --git a/experiments/receipts/uk-corrected-measurement-comparison.json b/experiments/receipts/uk-corrected-measurement-comparison.json index ad638e5a2..15b01b235 100644 --- a/experiments/receipts/uk-corrected-measurement-comparison.json +++ b/experiments/receipts/uk-corrected-measurement-comparison.json @@ -116,6 +116,871 @@ 27646.603515625, 27646.603515625 ] + }, + "spine_origin_code_pin": "d43b4203c6ebe10e062cb3ef3034e66731ea055d", + "spine_origin_receipt": { + "path": "experiments/receipts/uk-publication-spi-comparison.json", + "git_revision": "5a1581e32b107601104ca5c2800100cdf99be42e", + "sha256": "71502cc84f0cc8a896f32c5bceb7472839afa49c693ce79e2a86783f65ea52fa", + "run_key": "control", + "artifact": "spine.h5", + "artifact_sha256": "2e68a13fc066c4b0b8b240361922596f9c268275e91223a49f66e3c8442ab157", + "all_corrected_input_identity_hashes_match": true + }, + "saved_uc_matrix_audit": { + "evidence_type": "new_saved_matrix_audit", + "audit_date": "2026-09-07", + "preflight_sha256": "0e907491cb588bf4cef61e5fbbad49106d8995099dd4f23e41c4f6281f45c1f7", + "matrix_sha256": "57f009de577ea3c7134bbe1f66eed9b78863da112d2876654576028fc8994a8c", + "solve_sha256": "f0f69f4ecd097740756f501c9dd7e7bc2943d18f9b6da34acb7ae90c0d576f5f", + "composition_snapshot_sha256": "08ab5b7507a857b6d9836c7895d7ee185acf583d96b5c27c6dc6eeb0bd197a53", + "composition_pin_scope": "first recorded during review repair; saved runtime resolver output", + "spine_sha256": "2e68a13fc066c4b0b8b240361922596f9c268275e91223a49f66e3c8442ab157", + "full_band_count": 100, + "active_rows_verified": 84, + "excluded_band_count": 16, + "rows": [ + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/SINGLE_annual_payment_0_to_1_200@2025", + "family": "SINGLE", + "lower_annual": 0.12, + "upper_annual": 1200.1200000000001, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 294, + "nonzero_households": 285 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/SINGLE_annual_payment_1_200_to_2_400@2025", + "family": "SINGLE", + "lower_annual": 1200.1200000000001, + "upper_annual": 2400.12, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 339, + "nonzero_households": 337 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/SINGLE_annual_payment_12_000_to_13_200@2025", + "family": "SINGLE", + "lower_annual": 12000.119999999999, + "upper_annual": 13200.119999999999, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 98, + "nonzero_households": 98 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/SINGLE_annual_payment_15_600_to_16_800@2025", + "family": "SINGLE", + "lower_annual": 15600.119999999999, + "upper_annual": 16800.12, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 147, + "nonzero_households": 147 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/SINGLE_annual_payment_16_800_to_18_000@2025", + "family": "SINGLE", + "lower_annual": 16800.12, + "upper_annual": 18000.12, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 72, + "nonzero_households": 72 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/SINGLE_annual_payment_18_000_to_19_200@2025", + "family": "SINGLE", + "lower_annual": 18000.12, + "upper_annual": 19200.12, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 26, + "nonzero_households": 26 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/SINGLE_annual_payment_19_200_to_20_400@2025", + "family": "SINGLE", + "lower_annual": 19200.12, + "upper_annual": 20400.12, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 18, + "nonzero_households": 18 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/SINGLE_annual_payment_20_400_to_21_600@2025", + "family": "SINGLE", + "lower_annual": 20400.12, + "upper_annual": 21600.12, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 8, + "nonzero_households": 8 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/SINGLE_annual_payment_22_800_to_24_000@2025", + "family": "SINGLE", + "lower_annual": 22800.12, + "upper_annual": 24000.12, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 2, + "nonzero_households": 2 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/SINGLE_annual_payment_2_400_to_3_600@2025", + "family": "SINGLE", + "lower_annual": 2400.12, + "upper_annual": 3600.12, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 604, + "nonzero_households": 584 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/SINGLE_annual_payment_24_000_to_25_200@2025", + "family": "SINGLE", + "lower_annual": 24000.12, + "upper_annual": 25200.120000000003, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 4, + "nonzero_households": 4 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/SINGLE_annual_payment_25_200_to_26_400@2025", + "family": "SINGLE", + "lower_annual": 25200.120000000003, + "upper_annual": 26400.120000000003, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 4, + "nonzero_households": 4 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/SINGLE_annual_payment_26_400_to_27_600@2025", + "family": "SINGLE", + "lower_annual": 26400.120000000003, + "upper_annual": 27600.120000000003, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 2, + "nonzero_households": 2 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/SINGLE_annual_payment_28_800_to_30_000@2025", + "family": "SINGLE", + "lower_annual": 28800.120000000003, + "upper_annual": null, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 8, + "nonzero_households": 8 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/SINGLE_annual_payment_3_600_to_4_800@2025", + "family": "SINGLE", + "lower_annual": 3600.12, + "upper_annual": 4800.12, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 712, + "nonzero_households": 671 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/SINGLE_annual_payment_4_800_to_6_000@2025", + "family": "SINGLE", + "lower_annual": 4800.12, + "upper_annual": 6000.12, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 231, + "nonzero_households": 225 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/SINGLE_annual_payment_6_000_to_7_200@2025", + "family": "SINGLE", + "lower_annual": 6000.12, + "upper_annual": 7200.12, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 117, + "nonzero_households": 117 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/SINGLE_annual_payment_7_200_to_8_400@2025", + "family": "SINGLE", + "lower_annual": 7200.12, + "upper_annual": 8400.119999999999, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 238, + "nonzero_households": 236 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/SINGLE_annual_payment_10_800_to_12_000@2025", + "family": "SINGLE", + "lower_annual": 10800.119999999999, + "upper_annual": 12000.119999999999, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 85, + "nonzero_households": 85 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/LONE_PARENT_annual_payment_0_to_1_200@2025", + "family": "LONE_PARENT", + "lower_annual": 0.12, + "upper_annual": 1200.1200000000001, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 93, + "nonzero_households": 93 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/LONE_PARENT_annual_payment_1_200_to_2_400@2025", + "family": "LONE_PARENT", + "lower_annual": 1200.1200000000001, + "upper_annual": 2400.12, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 57, + "nonzero_households": 57 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/LONE_PARENT_annual_payment_20_400_to_21_600@2025", + "family": "LONE_PARENT", + "lower_annual": 20400.12, + "upper_annual": 21600.12, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 61, + "nonzero_households": 61 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/LONE_PARENT_annual_payment_22_800_to_24_000@2025", + "family": "LONE_PARENT", + "lower_annual": 22800.12, + "upper_annual": 24000.12, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 43, + "nonzero_households": 43 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/LONE_PARENT_annual_payment_2_400_to_3_600@2025", + "family": "LONE_PARENT", + "lower_annual": 2400.12, + "upper_annual": 3600.12, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 87, + "nonzero_households": 87 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/LONE_PARENT_annual_payment_24_000_to_25_200@2025", + "family": "LONE_PARENT", + "lower_annual": 24000.12, + "upper_annual": 25200.120000000003, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 35, + "nonzero_households": 35 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/LONE_PARENT_annual_payment_25_200_to_26_400@2025", + "family": "LONE_PARENT", + "lower_annual": 25200.120000000003, + "upper_annual": 26400.120000000003, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 23, + "nonzero_households": 23 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/LONE_PARENT_annual_payment_26_400_to_27_600@2025", + "family": "LONE_PARENT", + "lower_annual": 26400.120000000003, + "upper_annual": 27600.120000000003, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 15, + "nonzero_households": 15 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/LONE_PARENT_annual_payment_27_600_to_28_800@2025", + "family": "LONE_PARENT", + "lower_annual": 27600.120000000003, + "upper_annual": 28800.120000000003, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 23, + "nonzero_households": 23 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/LONE_PARENT_annual_payment_28_800_to_30_000@2025", + "family": "LONE_PARENT", + "lower_annual": 28800.120000000003, + "upper_annual": null, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 106, + "nonzero_households": 106 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/LONE_PARENT_annual_payment_3_600_to_4_800@2025", + "family": "LONE_PARENT", + "lower_annual": 3600.12, + "upper_annual": 4800.12, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 87, + "nonzero_households": 87 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/LONE_PARENT_annual_payment_4_800_to_6_000@2025", + "family": "LONE_PARENT", + "lower_annual": 4800.12, + "upper_annual": 6000.12, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 108, + "nonzero_households": 108 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/LONE_PARENT_annual_payment_6_000_to_7_200@2025", + "family": "LONE_PARENT", + "lower_annual": 6000.12, + "upper_annual": 7200.12, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 116, + "nonzero_households": 116 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/LONE_PARENT_annual_payment_7_200_to_8_400@2025", + "family": "LONE_PARENT", + "lower_annual": 7200.12, + "upper_annual": 8400.119999999999, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 121, + "nonzero_households": 121 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/LONE_PARENT_annual_payment_8_400_to_9_600@2025", + "family": "LONE_PARENT", + "lower_annual": 8400.119999999999, + "upper_annual": 9600.119999999999, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 82, + "nonzero_households": 82 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/LONE_PARENT_annual_payment_9_600_to_10_800@2025", + "family": "LONE_PARENT", + "lower_annual": 9600.119999999999, + "upper_annual": 10800.119999999999, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 95, + "nonzero_households": 95 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_0_to_1_200@2025", + "family": "COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN", + "lower_annual": 0.12, + "upper_annual": 1200.1200000000001, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 40, + "nonzero_households": 40 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_1_200_to_2_400@2025", + "family": "COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN", + "lower_annual": 1200.1200000000001, + "upper_annual": 2400.12, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 57, + "nonzero_households": 57 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_12_000_to_13_200@2025", + "family": "COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN", + "lower_annual": 12000.119999999999, + "upper_annual": 13200.119999999999, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 49, + "nonzero_households": 49 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_13_200_to_14_400@2025", + "family": "COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN", + "lower_annual": 13200.119999999999, + "upper_annual": 14400.119999999999, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 32, + "nonzero_households": 32 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_14_400_to_15_600@2025", + "family": "COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN", + "lower_annual": 14400.119999999999, + "upper_annual": 15600.119999999999, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 34, + "nonzero_households": 34 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_15_600_to_16_800@2025", + "family": "COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN", + "lower_annual": 15600.119999999999, + "upper_annual": 16800.12, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 34, + "nonzero_households": 34 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_16_800_to_18_000@2025", + "family": "COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN", + "lower_annual": 16800.12, + "upper_annual": 18000.12, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 16, + "nonzero_households": 16 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_18_000_to_19_200@2025", + "family": "COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN", + "lower_annual": 18000.12, + "upper_annual": 19200.12, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 16, + "nonzero_households": 16 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_19_200_to_20_400@2025", + "family": "COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN", + "lower_annual": 19200.12, + "upper_annual": 20400.12, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 14, + "nonzero_households": 14 + }, + { + "name": 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"exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 26, + "nonzero_households": 26 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN_annual_payment_25_200_to_26_400@2025", + "family": "COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN", + "lower_annual": 25200.120000000003, + "upper_annual": 26400.120000000003, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 24, + "nonzero_households": 24 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN_annual_payment_26_400_to_27_600@2025", + "family": "COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN", + "lower_annual": 26400.120000000003, + "upper_annual": 27600.120000000003, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 10, + "nonzero_households": 10 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN_annual_payment_27_600_to_28_800@2025", + "family": "COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN", + "lower_annual": 27600.120000000003, + "upper_annual": 28800.120000000003, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 24, + "nonzero_households": 24 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN_annual_payment_28_800_to_30_000@2025", + "family": "COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN", + "lower_annual": 28800.120000000003, + "upper_annual": null, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 66, + "nonzero_households": 66 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN_annual_payment_3_600_to_4_800@2025", + "family": "COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN", + "lower_annual": 3600.12, + "upper_annual": 4800.12, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 105, + "nonzero_households": 105 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN_annual_payment_4_800_to_6_000@2025", + "family": "COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN", + "lower_annual": 4800.12, + "upper_annual": 6000.12, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 105, + "nonzero_households": 105 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN_annual_payment_6_000_to_7_200@2025", + "family": "COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN", + "lower_annual": 6000.12, + "upper_annual": 7200.12, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 90, + "nonzero_households": 90 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN_annual_payment_7_200_to_8_400@2025", + "family": "COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN", + "lower_annual": 7200.12, + "upper_annual": 8400.119999999999, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 117, + "nonzero_households": 117 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN_annual_payment_8_400_to_9_600@2025", + "family": "COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN", + "lower_annual": 8400.119999999999, + "upper_annual": 9600.119999999999, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 71, + "nonzero_households": 71 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN_annual_payment_9_600_to_10_800@2025", + "family": "COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN", + "lower_annual": 9600.119999999999, + "upper_annual": 10800.119999999999, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 92, + "nonzero_households": 92 + }, + { + "name": "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN_annual_payment_10_800_to_12_000@2025", + "family": "COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN", + "lower_annual": 10800.119999999999, + "upper_annual": 12000.119999999999, + "positive_payment_required": true, + "exact_saved_matrix_match": true, + "support_benefit_units": 68, + "nonzero_households": 68 + } + ] } } }, @@ -9054,5 +10784,19 @@ "repository_ruff_passed": true, "ci_inventory_verified": true, "full_repository_suite_claimed": false + }, + "evidence_completion": { + "date": "2026-09-07", + "builder": "experiments/build_879_corrected_measurement_receipt.py", + "baseline_receipt": { + "path": "experiments/receipts/uk-corrected-measurement-comparison.json", + "git_revision": "5a1581e32b107601104ca5c2800100cdf99be42e", + "sha256": "4e8bda6ba2eba3b7df56b56a565a6dd488c7d9c3739d46e4fb44bc45a41b6a93" + }, + "calibration_rerun": false, + "historical_results_and_gate_decisions_preserved": true, + "historical_uc_check_scope": "The run script asserted 84 active UC rows before solving using runtime-resolved families. The authenticated preflight records all 100 band inputs/supports, but did not serialize an individual exact-match assertion for UC rows.", + "saved_matrix_audit_scope": "New exact row comparisons against retained composition snapshots. Snapshot hashes were first pinned during this review; family values remain saved resolver output. Independent relationship and full-register boundary tests are synthetic.", + "published_tail_boundary_correctness_claimed": false } } diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json index 139ef470a..f7b5b6de9 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json @@ -3,28 +3,28 @@ "description": "Reviewed target-fit exclusions for the UK terminal battery (schema 2 per #610). Each entry defers one calibration target whose |relative error| breaches the 25% release bound, with the defect diagnosed, tracked, and owned elsewhere; the receipt records the reasoning, approver, adjudication reference, approval date, and expiry. The gate keeps the target BOUND in calibration (exclusion applies to the release fence only, never the solve), reports dormant entries, FAILS stale ones (targets back inside the bound), and FAILS expired ones until the adjudication is renewed, so this register cannot rot.", "exclusions": { "dwp.uc.households_single_with_children@2025": { - "reason": "UC with-children support residual, not a fit defect: initial eligible support runs 4.24m benunits vs 6.76m DWP admin after the #750 pension-wealth split, the #813 re-bind proved this cell's grain honest (family-type cells partition dwp.uc.households exactly), and the 0.55/0.70/0.85 take-up probes proved marginal claimants ~10:1 childless, so no calibration-side lever reaches it. Root cause evidenced by the donor-truth benchmark on #809: the wealth re-draw over-spreads countable capital >16k to a 38.3% household share vs the WAS donor's 28.6%, suppressing eligibility; the fix is the #145 draw-quality workstream. Deferred one month to unblock the first certified cut.", + "reason": "UC with-children support residual, not a fit defect: initial eligible support runs 4.24m benunits vs 6.76m DWP admin after the #750 pension-wealth split, the #813 re-bind proved this cell's grain honest (family-type cells partition dwp.uc.households exactly), and the 0.55/0.70/0.85 take-up probes proved marginal claimants ~10:1 childless, so no calibration-side lever reaches it. Root cause evidenced by the donor-truth benchmark on #809: the wealth re-draw over-spreads countable capital >16k to a 38.3% household share vs the WAS donor's 28.6%, suppressing eligibility; the fix is the #145 draw-quality workstream. Deferred one month to unblock the first certified cut. Historical-basis annotation (2026-09-07, PR #879): The preceding text preserves the original adjudication rationale as historical evidence. The FRS claimant/partner correction changes membership of the single-with-children cell, so the #813 support, take-up and wealth-draw attribution above has not been revalidated under the corrected measurement. Fresh adjudication is required; this annotation is not a renewal or new approval and changes no exclusion decision, approver, approval/expiry date or gate threshold. Source-role/codebook, redraw and native-entitlement work remain separate from calibration relabelling. See https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/blob/uk-spi-income-coherence-840/experiments/879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md#historical-uc-fit-deferral-rationales.", "approved_by": "juaristi22", "adjudication": "microcosm#796", "approved_on": "2026-08-30", "expires_on": "2026-09-30" }, "dwp.uc.households_children_1@2025": { - "reason": "Same UC with-children support residual as dwp.uc.households_single_with_children@2025: honest grain after the #813 re-bind, unreachable by take-up (probes 0.55/0.70/0.85), caused by the wealth re-draw over-spread past the 16k countable-capital threshold (spine 38.3% vs WAS donor 28.6%, #809 receipts); owned by #145. Deferred one month to unblock the first certified cut.", + "reason": "Same UC with-children support residual as dwp.uc.households_single_with_children@2025: honest grain after the #813 re-bind, unreachable by take-up (probes 0.55/0.70/0.85), caused by the wealth re-draw over-spread past the 16k countable-capital threshold (spine 38.3% vs WAS donor 28.6%, #809 receipts); owned by #145. Deferred one month to unblock the first certified cut. Historical-basis annotation (2026-09-07, PR #879): The preceding text preserves the original adjudication rationale as historical evidence. The corrected reported-child definition changes membership of the exactly-one-child cell, so the #813 support, take-up and wealth-draw attribution above has not been revalidated under the corrected measurement. Fresh adjudication is required; this annotation is not a renewal or new approval and changes no exclusion decision, approver, approval/expiry date or gate threshold. Source-role/codebook, redraw and native-entitlement work remain separate from calibration relabelling. See https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/blob/uk-spi-income-coherence-840/experiments/879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md#historical-uc-fit-deferral-rationales.", "approved_by": "juaristi22", "adjudication": "microcosm#796", "approved_on": "2026-08-30", "expires_on": "2026-09-30" }, "dwp.uc.households_children_2@2025": { - "reason": "Same UC with-children support residual as dwp.uc.households_single_with_children@2025: honest grain after the #813 re-bind, unreachable by take-up (probes 0.55/0.70/0.85), caused by the wealth re-draw over-spread past the 16k countable-capital threshold (spine 38.3% vs WAS donor 28.6%, #809 receipts); owned by #145. Deferred one month to unblock the first certified cut.", + "reason": "Same UC with-children support residual as dwp.uc.households_single_with_children@2025: honest grain after the #813 re-bind, unreachable by take-up (probes 0.55/0.70/0.85), caused by the wealth re-draw over-spread past the 16k countable-capital threshold (spine 38.3% vs WAS donor 28.6%, #809 receipts); owned by #145. Deferred one month to unblock the first certified cut. Historical-basis annotation (2026-09-07, PR #879): The preceding text preserves the original adjudication rationale as historical evidence. The corrected reported-child definition changes membership of the exactly-two-children cell. Its corrected SPI-treatment error is -21.525%, inside the unchanged 25% bound, so this entry is stale in that treatment; the historical causal attribution above has not been revalidated. Fresh adjudication is required; this annotation is not a renewal or new approval and changes no exclusion decision, approver, approval/expiry date or gate threshold. Source-role/codebook, redraw and native-entitlement work remain separate from calibration relabelling. See https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/blob/uk-spi-income-coherence-840/experiments/879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md#historical-uc-fit-deferral-rationales.", "approved_by": "juaristi22", "adjudication": "microcosm#796", "approved_on": "2026-08-30", "expires_on": "2026-09-30" }, "dwp.uc.households_children_5_or_more@2025": { - "reason": "Same UC with-children support residual as dwp.uc.households_single_with_children@2025: honest grain after the #813 re-bind, unreachable by take-up (probes 0.55/0.70/0.85), caused by the wealth re-draw over-spread past the 16k countable-capital threshold (spine 38.3% vs WAS donor 28.6%, #809 receipts); owned by #145. Deferred one month to unblock the first certified cut.", + "reason": "Same UC with-children support residual as dwp.uc.households_single_with_children@2025: honest grain after the #813 re-bind, unreachable by take-up (probes 0.55/0.70/0.85), caused by the wealth re-draw over-spread past the 16k countable-capital threshold (spine 38.3% vs WAS donor 28.6%, #809 receipts); owned by #145. Deferred one month to unblock the first certified cut. Historical-basis annotation (2026-09-07, PR #879): The preceding text preserves the original adjudication rationale as historical evidence. The corrected reported-child definition also governs the five-or-more-children cell. Similar residual errors do not revalidate the #813 support, take-up and wealth-draw attribution above under the corrected measurement. Fresh adjudication is required; this annotation is not a renewal or new approval and changes no exclusion decision, approver, approval/expiry date or gate threshold. Source-role/codebook, redraw and native-entitlement work remain separate from calibration relabelling. See https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/blob/uk-spi-income-coherence-840/experiments/879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md#historical-uc-fit-deferral-rationales.", "approved_by": "juaristi22", "adjudication": "microcosm#796", "approved_on": "2026-08-30", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_corrected_measurement_receipt.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_corrected_measurement_receipt.py new file mode 100644 index 000000000..ca374268a --- /dev/null +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_corrected_measurement_receipt.py @@ -0,0 +1,188 @@ +"""Public evidence audits fail closed without optional country engines or data.""" + +import copy +import hashlib +import importlib.util +import json +from pathlib import Path + +import numpy as np +import pandas as pd +import pytest +from scipy import sparse + +_BUILDER = ( + Path(__file__).resolve().parents[3] + / "experiments/build_879_corrected_measurement_receipt.py" +) +_spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location("corrected_receipt", _BUILDER) +receipt = importlib.util.module_from_spec(_spec) +_spec.loader.exec_module(receipt) + + +def _audit_inputs(): + composition = pd.DataFrame( + { + "benunit_id": [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6], + "household_id": [20, 10, 10, 20, 20, 10], + "family": ["SINGLE"] * 5 + ["LONE_PARENT"], + "uc": [0.0, 0.12, 1200.0, 1200.12, 50_000.0, 100.0], + "private_unrequested_field": ["never publish"] * 6, + } + ) + names = [ + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/SINGLE_annual_payment_0_to_1_200@2025", + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/SINGLE_annual_payment_1_200_to_2_400@2025", + ] + bands = [ + { + "name": name.removesuffix("@2025"), + "family": "SINGLE", + "active": True, + "lower_annual": lower, + "upper_annual": upper, + "support_benefit_units": 2, + "prior_estimate": prior, + "private_unrequested_field": "never publish", + } + for name, lower, upper, prior in zip( + names, [0.12, 1200.12], [1200.12, None], [6.0, 10.0], strict=True + ) + ] + return ( + bands, + composition, + np.array([10, 20]), + names, + sparse.csr_matrix([[2.0, 0.0], [0.0, 2.0]]), + np.array([3.0, 5.0]), + ) + + +def test_saved_audit_checks_exact_household_counts_and_allowlists_output(): + rows = receipt.audit_saved_matrix(*_audit_inputs()) + assert len(rows) == 2 + assert all(row["exact_saved_matrix_match"] for row in rows) + assert all(row["support_benefit_units"] == 2 for row in rows) + assert all(row["nonzero_households"] == 1 for row in rows) + assert set(rows[0]) == { + "name", + "family", + "lower_annual", + "upper_annual", + "positive_payment_required", + "exact_saved_matrix_match", + "support_benefit_units", + "nonzero_households", + } + assert "never publish" not in json.dumps(rows) + + +def test_saved_audit_rejects_different_rows_with_equal_aggregate_support(): + args = list(_audit_inputs()) + args[4] = sparse.csr_matrix([[1.0, 1.0], [0.0, 2.0]]) + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="Saved UC matrix row mismatch"): + receipt.audit_saved_matrix(*args) + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize( + "field,value", [("support_benefit_units", 3), ("prior_estimate", 7.0)] +) +def test_saved_audit_rejects_preflight_aggregate_drift(field, value): + args = _audit_inputs() + args[0][0][field] = value + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="Preflight .* mismatch"): + receipt.audit_saved_matrix(*args) + + +def test_saved_audit_rejects_excluded_row_in_matrix(): + args = _audit_inputs() + args[0][1]["active"] = False + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="Active UC matrix roster mismatch"): + receipt.audit_saved_matrix(*args) + + +def test_committed_receipt_is_authenticated_before_parsing(monkeypatch, tmp_path): + raw = b'{"proof": "historical"}' + monkeypatch.setattr(receipt.subprocess, "check_output", lambda *args, **kwargs: raw) + digest = hashlib.sha256(raw).hexdigest() + assert receipt.committed_json(tmp_path, "receipt.json", digest) == { + "proof": "historical" + } + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="Receipt hash mismatch"): + receipt.committed_json(tmp_path, "receipt.json", "0" * 64) + + +def test_spine_origin_requires_all_corrected_hashes_to_match(): + run = { + "code_pin": "measurement", + "input_identity": {"before": "a", "after": "a", "copied_after": "a"}, + } + origin = { + "runs": { + "control": {"code_pin": "spine-origin", "file_hashes": {"spine.h5": "a"}} + } + } + receipt.add_spine_origin(run, origin, "control") + assert run["code_pin"] == "measurement" + assert run["spine_origin_code_pin"] == "spine-origin" + run["input_identity"]["copied_after"] = "b" + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="Spine origin hash mismatch"): + receipt.add_spine_origin(run, origin, "control") + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize( + "tampered", + [ + "calibration_diagnostics.json", + "calibration_gates.json", + "matrix_preflight.json", + "support_after_solve.json", + "solve.npz", + "matrix.npz", + "spine.h5", + "uc_composition_private.pkl", + ], +) +def test_builder_authenticates_every_retained_input_before_private_loading( + monkeypatch, tmp_path, tampered +): + files = [ + "calibration_diagnostics.json", + "calibration_gates.json", + "matrix_preflight.json", + "support_after_solve.json", + "solve.npz", + "matrix.npz", + ] + digest = hashlib.sha256(b"expected").hexdigest() + for name in files + ["spine.h5", "uc_composition_private.pkl"]: + (tmp_path / name).write_bytes(b"expected") + (tmp_path / tampered).write_bytes(b"tampered") + run = { + "artifact_sha256": dict.fromkeys(files, digest), + "input_identity": dict.fromkeys(["before", "after", "copied_after"], digest), + } + baseline = {"runs": {"pub879-control": run}} + original = { + "runs": { + "control": {"code_pin": "original", "file_hashes": {"spine.h5": digest}} + } + } + monkeypatch.setattr( + receipt, + "committed_json", + lambda repo, path, expected: copy.deepcopy( + baseline if path == receipt.BASELINE_PATH else original + ), + ) + monkeypatch.setitem(receipt.COMPOSITION_SHA256, "pub879-control", digest) + + def unexpected_load(*args, **kwargs): + raise AssertionError( + "private inputs must not be loaded after authentication fails" + ) + + monkeypatch.setattr(receipt.pd, "read_pickle", unexpected_load) + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="SHA-256 mismatch"): + receipt.build_receipt(tmp_path, {"pub879-control": tmp_path}) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_spi_income.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_spi_income.py index 8a8c11907..0474e6838 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_spi_income.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_spi_income.py @@ -228,6 +228,7 @@ def _bypass_reviewed_donor_identity(monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch) -> None: monkeypatch.setattr(spi_income, "_verify_spi_donor_identity", lambda _: None) +@pytest.mark.requires_uk def test_spi_preserves_observed_children_outside_the_donor_age_domain( monkeypatch, tmp_path ) -> None: @@ -266,6 +267,7 @@ def test_spi_preserves_observed_children_outside_the_donor_age_domain( assert result.person.loc[adults, "gift_aid"].eq(10).all() +@pytest.mark.requires_uk def test_spi_rebases_income_before_frs_fill_and_preserves_child_inputs( monkeypatch, tmp_path ) -> None: @@ -321,6 +323,7 @@ def test_spi_rebases_income_before_frs_fill_and_preserves_child_inputs( assert result.income_uprating == {"from_period": 2022, "to_period": 2024} +@pytest.mark.requires_uk def test_child_exclusion_keeps_the_base_dividend_random_stream( monkeypatch, tmp_path ) -> None: @@ -361,6 +364,7 @@ def predict(self, predictors): ) +@pytest.mark.requires_uk def test_stage2_pension_bridge_uses_observed_and_drawn_receipt( monkeypatch, tmp_path ) -> None: @@ -407,6 +411,7 @@ def fit(self, frame, predictors, targets, *, weights): ) +@pytest.mark.requires_uk def test_spi_qrf_stages_use_typed_weights_and_restore_gross_savings( monkeypatch, tmp_path, @@ -864,6 +869,7 @@ def test_the_spi_channel_ships_no_structural_nan_on_the_frs_channel( @pytest.mark.parametrize("age", [15, 16]) @pytest.mark.parametrize("channel", ["frs", "spi"]) +@pytest.mark.requires_uk def test_spi_donor_age_boundary_applies_to_both_recipient_channels( monkeypatch, tmp_path, age, channel ) -> None: diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_spi_spine.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_spi_spine.py index 576d71dd4..26ad41621 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_spi_spine.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_spi_spine.py @@ -534,6 +534,16 @@ def test_spi_spine_parsed_inputs_match_the_path_resolution( "_refresh_disability_derived_inputs", lambda person, spi_people, build_period: person, ) + + # This test checks parsed/path source resolution, independently of the engine. + # Real index coverage lives in test_uk_spi_income.py. + def uprating_factors(year): + return ( + {column: 1.25 for column in SPI_INCOME_QRF_OUTPUT_COLUMNS}, + {"from_period": 2022, "to_period": year, "basis": "synthetic_test"}, + ) + + monkeypatch.setattr(spi_income, "_spi_income_uprating_factors", uprating_factors) support_frame = UKSPISupportChannelStageTransform( stage=_committed_stage("spi_support_channel"), sample_fraction=0.0002, diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_uc_family.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_uc_family.py index 8dadb9a30..f17b3ff52 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_uc_family.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_uc_family.py @@ -1,12 +1,22 @@ """UC calibration family categories respect retained FRS relationships.""" +import json +from importlib import resources from types import SimpleNamespace import numpy as np import pandas as pd import pytest +from microcosm.build.country_spec import load_country_spec +from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.ledger_targets import ( + UKFrameTargetAdapter, + materialize_uk_ledger_targets, +) from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.measure_simulation import compute_uk_measure_input +from microcosm.calibrate import TargetRegistry, TargetSpec +from microcosm.calibrate.matrix import build_constraint_matrix +from microcosm.frame import EntitySchema, Frame, WeightKind, Weights def _fixture(): @@ -83,3 +93,151 @@ def test_uc_family_measure_refuses_ambiguous_claimant_count(): compute_uk_measure_input( frame, sim, "benunit", "uc_calibration_family_type", 2025 ) + + +def test_full_uc_payment_registry_matches_independent_relationship_and_band_cases(): + """All active rows count benefit units, retaining edges of excluded bands.""" + # Expected labels are stated by scenario, never calculated by the resolver. + # Each member is (age, head, parent, native UC child/QYP status). + scenarios = [ + ("SINGLE", 0, [(18, True, False, True)]), + ("LONE_PARENT", 1, [(49, True, True, False), (18, False, False, True)]), + ("LONE_PARENT", 1, [(45, True, True, False), (19, False, False, False)]), + ("SINGLE", 1, [(45, True, True, False), (20, False, False, False)]), + ("LONE_PARENT", 1, [(45, True, True, False), (20, False, False, True)]), + ("COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN", 0, [(19, True, False, True), (18, False, False, True)]), + ( + "COUPLE_WITH_CHILDREN", + 1, + [ + (35, True, True, False), + (36, False, True, False), + (8, False, False, True), + ], + ), + ] + # Match the published decimal lower edges, independently of _band_bounds. + # KNOWN source mismatch: the highest INCLUDED band is bounded in DWP's + # labels (£2,400.01–£2,500/month); a separate £2,500.01+ category is absent + # from this registry. Current interpretation opens the included band to + # infinity. The £50,000 case pins that behavior, not source correctness. + edges = [float(f"{100 * i}.01") * 12 for i in range(25)] + awards = [-1.0, 0.0, 0.1, 50_000.0] + for edge in edges: + awards.extend([np.nextafter(edge, -np.inf), edge, np.nextafter(edge, np.inf)]) + people, benunits, expected_families, qualifying = [], [], [], [] + for family, dependent, members in scenarios: + for award in awards: + # Two identically eligible benefit units in a dwelling distinguish + # summation from an any-member household indicator. + household_id = len(benunits) // 2 + for _ in range(2): + benunit_id = len(benunits) + benunits.append( + { + "benunit_id": benunit_id, + "dependent_children": dependent, + "is_married": False, + "universal_credit": award, + } + ) + expected_families.append(family) + for age, head, parent, qyp in members: + people.append( + { + "person_id": len(people), + "person_benunit_id": benunit_id, + "person_household_id": household_id, + "age": age, + "is_benunit_head": head, + "is_parent": parent, + } + ) + qualifying.append(qyp) + # Reverse person-row order to expose positional aggregation assumptions; + # Frame requires sorted group ids. + bu = pd.DataFrame(benunits) + hh = pd.DataFrame({"household_id": np.arange(len(benunits) // 2)}) + frame = Frame( + { + "person": pd.DataFrame(people).iloc[::-1].reset_index(drop=True), + "benunit": bu, + "household": hh, + }, + EntitySchema(group_entities=("benunit", "household")), + {"household": Weights(np.ones(len(hh)), WeightKind.DESIGN)}, + ) + sim = SimpleNamespace(calculate=lambda variable, year: np.asarray(qualifying[::-1])) + family, _ = compute_uk_measure_input( + frame, sim, "benunit", "uc_calibration_family_type", 2025 + ) + np.testing.assert_array_equal(family, expected_families) + adapter = UKFrameTargetAdapter(frame) + adapter.set_column("benunit", "uc_calibration_family_type", family) + + refs = [ + r + for r in load_country_spec("uk").target_references + if r.name.startswith("dwp/uc_payment_dist/") + ] + excluded = { + row["name"] + for row in json.loads( + resources.files("microcosm.build.uk") + .joinpath("calibration_measure_exclusions.json") + .read_text() + )["exclusions"] + } + specs = [ + TargetSpec( + name=r.name, + entity=r.entity, + measure=r.measure, + value=1.0, + period=2025, + source="synthetic", + metadata={ + **dict(r.metadata), + **{ + f"ledger_filter_{key}": value + for key, value in r.ledger_selector["dimension_values"].items() + }, + }, + ) + for r in refs + ] + full_registry = TargetRegistry(specs, country="uk") + active = [spec for spec in specs if spec.name not in excluded] + assert len(specs) == 100 + assert len(active) == 84 + assert len({s.name for s in specs} & excluded) == 16 + registry = TargetRegistry(active, country="uk") + result = materialize_uk_ledger_targets( + adapter, registry, period=2025, band_edge_registry=full_registry + ) + assert not result.skipped + problem = build_constraint_matrix( + adapter.to_frame(), registry.to_target_set(), weight_entity="household" + ) + assert not problem.skipped + assert len(problem.names) == 84 + assert not {f"{name}@2025" for name in excluded}.intersection(problem.names) + expected_family = np.asarray(expected_families)[bu.benunit_id.to_numpy()] + uc = bu.universal_credit.to_numpy() + # Synthetic ids encode the independent fixture's two-benefit-unit dwelling. + bu_household = bu.benunit_id.to_numpy() // 2 + for spec, name, row in zip( + active, problem.names, problem.matrix.toarray(), strict=True + ): + family_name, band_name = spec.name.split("/")[-1].split("_annual_payment_") + band_index = int(band_name.split("_to_")[0].replace("_", "")) // 1200 + lower = edges[band_index] + upper = edges[band_index + 1] if band_index < 24 else np.inf + mask = ( + (expected_family == family_name) & (uc > 0) & (uc >= lower) & (uc < upper) + ) + expected = np.array( + [mask[bu_household == hid].sum() for hid in hh.household_id] + ) + np.testing.assert_array_equal(row, expected, err_msg=name) + assert row.max() == 2, name From 7fd55db0a548c0b74566d56fdec776a97e84b89b Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: =?UTF-8?q?Mar=C3=ADa=20Juaristi?= <127882282+juaristi22@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Mon, 7 Sep 2026 16:15:48 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 11/12] Record final main integration and scoped review validation --- .../879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md | 30 +++++++++++++++++-- 1 file changed, 27 insertions(+), 3 deletions(-) diff --git a/experiments/879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md b/experiments/879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md index 965cd7212..4e8515bbf 100644 --- a/experiments/879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md +++ b/experiments/879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md @@ -1,11 +1,23 @@ # PR 879: matched national comparison after measurement corrections +> Integration update, 7 September 2026: the second rebase is onto `main` +> `5ab1b056f4d3e8a71873b13fe566f0bb899899b6`, which includes merged PR #874. +> Ten publication prerequisite commits dropped because they are already merged; +> four earlier fit-deferral/clock commits remain carried by this branch. +> The review-fix patch replayed unchanged at code tip +> `de606c218cb8446dc2b81477cbae56aae3cf897c` (previously `9ac8d9c1`). +> This integration brings upstream `659adb1a` fiscal-year target selection, +> DfT geography and take-up-contract fixes. The historical calibrations below +> were **not rerun for this head**: their original measurement/spine code pins, +> artifact identities and numerical results remain the scope of the evidence. +> Post-rebase code validation is separate from those historical calibration runs. + > Historical first-rebase note, 7 September 2026: at this stage PR #879 targeted > `main` and was rebased onto > `396df96fe7889777f3a7dd737e3305298219e6fa`. The four SPI/measurement and evidence -> commits replayed with identical patches; their rebased tip is `4f000458`. +> commits replayed with identical patches; their rebased tip was `4f000458`. > At that stage the branch also carried the 14 unmerged UK publication-stack prerequisite -> commits on which these experiments depend. The rebase changes no executable +> commits on which these experiments depend. That first rebase changed no executable > Python behavior relative to the previously tested PR head `4ccaabba`. > That first rebase left calibration receipts, target/exclusion registers and the > lockfile unchanged. This note does not describe the base of later integrations. @@ -20,6 +32,8 @@ The England-scope and FRS-composition corrections are implemented and the matche ## What changed +These are the changes measured in the retained comparison. The later upstream integration described above has separate code-validation results and no new calibration results. + - National VOA bands A–H and total explicitly require `country == ENGLAND`, matching their `E92000001` facts. The selected `E92000001` facts cover England within the broader England-and-Wales [VOA publication](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/council-tax-stock-of-properties-2025/council-tax-stock-of-properties-statistical-commentary). Local VOA and Scottish bindings are unchanged. The existing use of household counts as a dwelling-stock proxy remains separate from this geography correction. - The UC payment-distribution and family-composition measurements use retained FRS claimant/parent roles rather than a generic adult count. This preserves cohabiting couples and prevents an older child becoming a partner. UC child counts include reported child members under 20 and native UC child/qualifying-young-person status, excluding the claimants themselves. The five child-count targets use the same child definition. - SPI price-year corrections, income draws, take-up, target values, all 44 measure exclusions, reviewed fit-exclusion decisions, solver settings and gates are unchanged. @@ -137,4 +151,14 @@ The SPI `hmrc_spi_state_pension_income` leaf remains nominal from 2022 even thou Historical measurement validation on 7 September 2026, with UK 2.94.0 / Core 3.31.0 installed, covered 305 distinct passing tests and two existing skips after updating two stale country-resource-roster assertions to include the already-registered reviewed target-fit exclusion resource. The initial measurement suite had 111 passes and two skips; the additional country-package/calibration/gate suite had 192 passes and two inherited roster failures, both then repaired and rerun successfully. This is not a full-repository test claim. Repository Ruff, CI test-inventory verification and the pinned-feed target-reference regeneration test passed in that historical scope. The separate 458-pass/four-skip rebase validation above covered a later focused set; neither count describes engine-free CI. No release gate, exclusion policy, take-up input or original spine was altered. -Review-repair validation on 7 September is separate: the two SPI test files pass without engines on Python 3.13 and 3.14 (39 passes, 14 skips each), and with the existing UK 2.94.0 / Core 3.31.0 environment (52 passes, one skip). Real-engine tests retain `requires_uk` coverage; parsed/path-equivalence coverage stubs deterministic uprating data and runs without an engine. The independent UC file passes five tests; the evidence-builder file passes 15 tests, including tamper refusal for all retained inputs and exact-row/privacy checks. The retained-evidence builder completed both 84-row audits without rerunning calibration. These are focused checks, not data certification. +Review-repair validation on 7 September, before the second rebase, is separate: the two SPI test files pass without engines on Python 3.13 and 3.14 (39 passes, 14 skips each), and with the existing UK 2.94.0 / Core 3.31.0 environment (52 passes, one skip). Real-engine tests retain `requires_uk` coverage; parsed/path-equivalence coverage stubs deterministic uprating data and runs without an engine. The independent UC file passes five tests; the evidence-builder file passes 15 tests, including tamper refusal for all retained inputs and exact-row/privacy checks. The retained-evidence builder completed both 84-row audits without rerunning calibration. These are focused checks, not data certification. + +Post-rebase validation on 7 September covers the integrated code based on `main` at `5ab1b056f4d3e8a71873b13fe566f0bb899899b6`, including the upstream fiscal-year selection, DfT geography and take-up-contract changes: + +| Scoped check | Environment | Passed | Skipped | +|---|---|---:|---:| +| 13 affected test files | Python 3.13, no country engines | 588 | 19 | +| Same 13 affected test files | Python 3.14, no country engines | 588 | 19 | +| Five affected test files | Existing UK 2.94.0 / Core 3.31.0 environment | 81 | 2 | + +These scopes overlap and are reported separately. The earlier 113-file fast group was interrupted for the user-requested `main` update; it did not complete and is not counted as a full-suite pass. The completed checks validate code contracts, not a recalibration or certified dataset. From 1f7d676f2449894bfd794973eaa507aa79bfbfdb Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: =?UTF-8?q?Mar=C3=ADa=20Juaristi?= <127882282+juaristi22@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2026 13:13:22 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 12/12] Fix PR 879 evidence durability references --- changelog.d/879-review-fixes.fixed.md | 1 + experiments/879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md | 4 ++-- experiments/build_879_corrected_measurement_receipt.py | 2 +- .../receipts/uk-corrected-measurement-comparison.json | 6 +++--- .../build/uk/target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json | 8 ++++---- 5 files changed, 11 insertions(+), 10 deletions(-) diff --git a/changelog.d/879-review-fixes.fixed.md b/changelog.d/879-review-fixes.fixed.md index c2487da6a..1c25a0ce3 100644 --- a/changelog.d/879-review-fixes.fixed.md +++ b/changelog.d/879-review-fixes.fixed.md @@ -1 +1,2 @@ Correct optional UK-engine test markers, retain engine-free SPI source-resolution coverage, add independent UC matrix and authenticated retained-evidence checks, and document unresolved UC boundaries, redraw/entitlement limits and historical deferral scope. +Pin review annotations and original-receipt locators to reachable immutable commits, and clarify the historical exclusion-register checksum. diff --git a/experiments/879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md b/experiments/879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md index 4e8515bbf..73a802d28 100644 --- a/experiments/879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md +++ b/experiments/879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md @@ -48,7 +48,7 @@ Before either optimizer ran, all nine actual VOA matrix rows were asserted equal ## Reproducing the retained-evidence audit -The [evidence builder](build_879_corrected_measurement_receipt.py) reads the original receipts from immutable commit `5a1581e32b107601104ca5c2800100cdf99be42e` and verifies their fixed SHA-256 pins. It authenticates every retained diagnostics, gate, preflight, support, solve and matrix artifact against those committed hashes, and each spine against the earlier source receipt. It then writes a fresh [comparison receipt](receipts/uk-corrected-measurement-comparison.json) containing 84 explicit exact saved-matrix row comparisons per run, with family, bounds, positive-payment predicate, benefit-unit support and nonzero-household counts. It preserves every earlier result and gate decision. +The [evidence builder](build_879_corrected_measurement_receipt.py) reads the original receipts from reachable immutable ancestor `a20d8c31936d5d0d4d193891d2c11d74217a038f` and verifies their fixed SHA-256 pins. It authenticates every retained diagnostics, gate, preflight, support, solve and matrix artifact against those committed hashes, and each spine against the earlier source receipt. It then writes a fresh [comparison receipt](receipts/uk-corrected-measurement-comparison.json) containing 84 explicit exact saved-matrix row comparisons per run, with family, bounds, positive-payment predicate, benefit-unit support and nonzero-household counts. It preserves every earlier result and gate decision. ```bash uv run --no-sync python experiments/build_879_corrected_measurement_receipt.py \ @@ -127,7 +127,7 @@ All four UC entries in the [reviewed target-fit register](../packages/microcosm- | `dwp.uc.households_children_2@2025` | -34.568% | -21.525% | Revised child membership; now inside 25% in SPI, making the entry stale; fresh adjudication required | | `dwp.uc.households_children_5_or_more@2025` | -28.504% | -28.532% | Revised child definition also governs this cell; similar residuals do not validate the historical causal attribution; fresh adjudication required | -Each of the four UC register reasons now retains its original wording verbatim followed by a dated historical-basis annotation, including the two-child entry’s stale treatment result. Every approver, adjudication reference, approval/expiry date and entry remains unchanged. The annotations require fresh adjudication and grant no renewed approval. The comparison receipts retain the original historical register hash; the current file differs only in those four explanatory reason strings. The 25% fit bound and all gate/exclusion decisions remain fixed for this comparison. Neither the #840 source review nor this evidence repair supplies a new input-mass parity waiver, known-gap approval or release authorization. Gate-override source observability is a separate unresolved suggestion; this repair neither adds an override nor changes its reporting. +Each of the four UC register reasons now retains its original wording verbatim followed by a dated historical-basis annotation, including the two-child entry’s stale treatment result. Every approver, adjudication reference, approval/expiry date and entry remains unchanged. The annotations require fresh adjudication and grant no renewed approval. The receipt field `protected_policy_resource_sha256["target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json"]` retains `93cd8b1d1e45a4ed0a1d8e96da36072d5b201a7f9ad6d88342b21a716a5108d2`, the checksum of the historical pre-annotation register used by those runs. It is not a checksum of today’s annotated register with commit-pinned report links. The current resource differs only in the four explanatory reason strings; the historical hash is not refreshed. The 25% fit bound and all gate/exclusion decisions remain fixed for this comparison. Neither the #840 source review nor this evidence repair supplies a new input-mass parity waiver, known-gap approval or release authorization. Gate-override source observability is a separate unresolved suggestion; this repair neither adds an override nor changes its reporting. ## UC target inventory and remaining measurement limitations diff --git a/experiments/build_879_corrected_measurement_receipt.py b/experiments/build_879_corrected_measurement_receipt.py index 85e8ef6b9..c71b01b02 100644 --- a/experiments/build_879_corrected_measurement_receipt.py +++ b/experiments/build_879_corrected_measurement_receipt.py @@ -29,7 +29,7 @@ import pandas as pd from scipy import sparse -SOURCE_COMMIT = "5a1581e32b107601104ca5c2800100cdf99be42e" +SOURCE_COMMIT = "a20d8c31936d5d0d4d193891d2c11d74217a038f" BASELINE_PATH = "experiments/receipts/uk-corrected-measurement-comparison.json" ORIGIN_PATH = "experiments/receipts/uk-publication-spi-comparison.json" BASELINE_SHA256 = "4e8bda6ba2eba3b7df56b56a565a6dd488c7d9c3739d46e4fb44bc45a41b6a93" diff --git a/experiments/receipts/uk-corrected-measurement-comparison.json b/experiments/receipts/uk-corrected-measurement-comparison.json index 15b01b235..a5e2ba561 100644 --- a/experiments/receipts/uk-corrected-measurement-comparison.json +++ b/experiments/receipts/uk-corrected-measurement-comparison.json @@ -120,7 +120,7 @@ "spine_origin_code_pin": "d43b4203c6ebe10e062cb3ef3034e66731ea055d", "spine_origin_receipt": { "path": "experiments/receipts/uk-publication-spi-comparison.json", - "git_revision": "5a1581e32b107601104ca5c2800100cdf99be42e", + "git_revision": "a20d8c31936d5d0d4d193891d2c11d74217a038f", "sha256": "71502cc84f0cc8a896f32c5bceb7472839afa49c693ce79e2a86783f65ea52fa", "run_key": "control", "artifact": "spine.h5", @@ -1101,7 +1101,7 @@ "spine_origin_code_pin": "fc49b48200e1e15fe35bb4e15b948992bf03c28d", "spine_origin_receipt": { "path": "experiments/receipts/uk-publication-spi-comparison.json", - "git_revision": "5a1581e32b107601104ca5c2800100cdf99be42e", + "git_revision": "a20d8c31936d5d0d4d193891d2c11d74217a038f", "sha256": "71502cc84f0cc8a896f32c5bceb7472839afa49c693ce79e2a86783f65ea52fa", "run_key": "treatment", "artifact": "spine.h5", @@ -10790,7 +10790,7 @@ "builder": "experiments/build_879_corrected_measurement_receipt.py", "baseline_receipt": { "path": "experiments/receipts/uk-corrected-measurement-comparison.json", - "git_revision": "5a1581e32b107601104ca5c2800100cdf99be42e", + "git_revision": "a20d8c31936d5d0d4d193891d2c11d74217a038f", "sha256": "4e8bda6ba2eba3b7df56b56a565a6dd488c7d9c3739d46e4fb44bc45a41b6a93" }, "calibration_rerun": false, diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json index f7b5b6de9..edbd82e25 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json @@ -3,28 +3,28 @@ "description": "Reviewed target-fit exclusions for the UK terminal battery (schema 2 per #610). Each entry defers one calibration target whose |relative error| breaches the 25% release bound, with the defect diagnosed, tracked, and owned elsewhere; the receipt records the reasoning, approver, adjudication reference, approval date, and expiry. The gate keeps the target BOUND in calibration (exclusion applies to the release fence only, never the solve), reports dormant entries, FAILS stale ones (targets back inside the bound), and FAILS expired ones until the adjudication is renewed, so this register cannot rot.", "exclusions": { "dwp.uc.households_single_with_children@2025": { - "reason": "UC with-children support residual, not a fit defect: initial eligible support runs 4.24m benunits vs 6.76m DWP admin after the #750 pension-wealth split, the #813 re-bind proved this cell's grain honest (family-type cells partition dwp.uc.households exactly), and the 0.55/0.70/0.85 take-up probes proved marginal claimants ~10:1 childless, so no calibration-side lever reaches it. Root cause evidenced by the donor-truth benchmark on #809: the wealth re-draw over-spreads countable capital >16k to a 38.3% household share vs the WAS donor's 28.6%, suppressing eligibility; the fix is the #145 draw-quality workstream. Deferred one month to unblock the first certified cut. Historical-basis annotation (2026-09-07, PR #879): The preceding text preserves the original adjudication rationale as historical evidence. The FRS claimant/partner correction changes membership of the single-with-children cell, so the #813 support, take-up and wealth-draw attribution above has not been revalidated under the corrected measurement. Fresh adjudication is required; this annotation is not a renewal or new approval and changes no exclusion decision, approver, approval/expiry date or gate threshold. Source-role/codebook, redraw and native-entitlement work remain separate from calibration relabelling. See https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/blob/uk-spi-income-coherence-840/experiments/879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md#historical-uc-fit-deferral-rationales.", + "reason": "UC with-children support residual, not a fit defect: initial eligible support runs 4.24m benunits vs 6.76m DWP admin after the #750 pension-wealth split, the #813 re-bind proved this cell's grain honest (family-type cells partition dwp.uc.households exactly), and the 0.55/0.70/0.85 take-up probes proved marginal claimants ~10:1 childless, so no calibration-side lever reaches it. Root cause evidenced by the donor-truth benchmark on #809: the wealth re-draw over-spreads countable capital >16k to a 38.3% household share vs the WAS donor's 28.6%, suppressing eligibility; the fix is the #145 draw-quality workstream. Deferred one month to unblock the first certified cut. Historical-basis annotation (2026-09-07, PR #879): The preceding text preserves the original adjudication rationale as historical evidence. The FRS claimant/partner correction changes membership of the single-with-children cell, so the #813 support, take-up and wealth-draw attribution above has not been revalidated under the corrected measurement. Fresh adjudication is required; this annotation is not a renewal or new approval and changes no exclusion decision, approver, approval/expiry date or gate threshold. Source-role/codebook, redraw and native-entitlement work remain separate from calibration relabelling. See https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/blob/7fd55db0a548c0b74566d56fdec776a97e84b89b/experiments/879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md#historical-uc-fit-deferral-rationales.", "approved_by": "juaristi22", "adjudication": "microcosm#796", "approved_on": "2026-08-30", "expires_on": "2026-09-30" }, "dwp.uc.households_children_1@2025": { - "reason": "Same UC with-children support residual as dwp.uc.households_single_with_children@2025: honest grain after the #813 re-bind, unreachable by take-up (probes 0.55/0.70/0.85), caused by the wealth re-draw over-spread past the 16k countable-capital threshold (spine 38.3% vs WAS donor 28.6%, #809 receipts); owned by #145. Deferred one month to unblock the first certified cut. Historical-basis annotation (2026-09-07, PR #879): The preceding text preserves the original adjudication rationale as historical evidence. The corrected reported-child definition changes membership of the exactly-one-child cell, so the #813 support, take-up and wealth-draw attribution above has not been revalidated under the corrected measurement. Fresh adjudication is required; this annotation is not a renewal or new approval and changes no exclusion decision, approver, approval/expiry date or gate threshold. Source-role/codebook, redraw and native-entitlement work remain separate from calibration relabelling. See https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/blob/uk-spi-income-coherence-840/experiments/879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md#historical-uc-fit-deferral-rationales.", + "reason": "Same UC with-children support residual as dwp.uc.households_single_with_children@2025: honest grain after the #813 re-bind, unreachable by take-up (probes 0.55/0.70/0.85), caused by the wealth re-draw over-spread past the 16k countable-capital threshold (spine 38.3% vs WAS donor 28.6%, #809 receipts); owned by #145. Deferred one month to unblock the first certified cut. Historical-basis annotation (2026-09-07, PR #879): The preceding text preserves the original adjudication rationale as historical evidence. The corrected reported-child definition changes membership of the exactly-one-child cell, so the #813 support, take-up and wealth-draw attribution above has not been revalidated under the corrected measurement. Fresh adjudication is required; this annotation is not a renewal or new approval and changes no exclusion decision, approver, approval/expiry date or gate threshold. Source-role/codebook, redraw and native-entitlement work remain separate from calibration relabelling. See https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/blob/7fd55db0a548c0b74566d56fdec776a97e84b89b/experiments/879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md#historical-uc-fit-deferral-rationales.", "approved_by": "juaristi22", "adjudication": "microcosm#796", "approved_on": "2026-08-30", "expires_on": "2026-09-30" }, "dwp.uc.households_children_2@2025": { - "reason": "Same UC with-children support residual as dwp.uc.households_single_with_children@2025: honest grain after the #813 re-bind, unreachable by take-up (probes 0.55/0.70/0.85), caused by the wealth re-draw over-spread past the 16k countable-capital threshold (spine 38.3% vs WAS donor 28.6%, #809 receipts); owned by #145. Deferred one month to unblock the first certified cut. Historical-basis annotation (2026-09-07, PR #879): The preceding text preserves the original adjudication rationale as historical evidence. The corrected reported-child definition changes membership of the exactly-two-children cell. Its corrected SPI-treatment error is -21.525%, inside the unchanged 25% bound, so this entry is stale in that treatment; the historical causal attribution above has not been revalidated. Fresh adjudication is required; this annotation is not a renewal or new approval and changes no exclusion decision, approver, approval/expiry date or gate threshold. Source-role/codebook, redraw and native-entitlement work remain separate from calibration relabelling. See https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/blob/uk-spi-income-coherence-840/experiments/879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md#historical-uc-fit-deferral-rationales.", + "reason": "Same UC with-children support residual as dwp.uc.households_single_with_children@2025: honest grain after the #813 re-bind, unreachable by take-up (probes 0.55/0.70/0.85), caused by the wealth re-draw over-spread past the 16k countable-capital threshold (spine 38.3% vs WAS donor 28.6%, #809 receipts); owned by #145. Deferred one month to unblock the first certified cut. Historical-basis annotation (2026-09-07, PR #879): The preceding text preserves the original adjudication rationale as historical evidence. The corrected reported-child definition changes membership of the exactly-two-children cell. Its corrected SPI-treatment error is -21.525%, inside the unchanged 25% bound, so this entry is stale in that treatment; the historical causal attribution above has not been revalidated. Fresh adjudication is required; this annotation is not a renewal or new approval and changes no exclusion decision, approver, approval/expiry date or gate threshold. Source-role/codebook, redraw and native-entitlement work remain separate from calibration relabelling. See https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/blob/7fd55db0a548c0b74566d56fdec776a97e84b89b/experiments/879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md#historical-uc-fit-deferral-rationales.", "approved_by": "juaristi22", "adjudication": "microcosm#796", "approved_on": "2026-08-30", "expires_on": "2026-09-30" }, "dwp.uc.households_children_5_or_more@2025": { - "reason": "Same UC with-children support residual as dwp.uc.households_single_with_children@2025: honest grain after the #813 re-bind, unreachable by take-up (probes 0.55/0.70/0.85), caused by the wealth re-draw over-spread past the 16k countable-capital threshold (spine 38.3% vs WAS donor 28.6%, #809 receipts); owned by #145. Deferred one month to unblock the first certified cut. Historical-basis annotation (2026-09-07, PR #879): The preceding text preserves the original adjudication rationale as historical evidence. The corrected reported-child definition also governs the five-or-more-children cell. Similar residual errors do not revalidate the #813 support, take-up and wealth-draw attribution above under the corrected measurement. Fresh adjudication is required; this annotation is not a renewal or new approval and changes no exclusion decision, approver, approval/expiry date or gate threshold. Source-role/codebook, redraw and native-entitlement work remain separate from calibration relabelling. See https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/blob/uk-spi-income-coherence-840/experiments/879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md#historical-uc-fit-deferral-rationales.", + "reason": "Same UC with-children support residual as dwp.uc.households_single_with_children@2025: honest grain after the #813 re-bind, unreachable by take-up (probes 0.55/0.70/0.85), caused by the wealth re-draw over-spread past the 16k countable-capital threshold (spine 38.3% vs WAS donor 28.6%, #809 receipts); owned by #145. Deferred one month to unblock the first certified cut. Historical-basis annotation (2026-09-07, PR #879): The preceding text preserves the original adjudication rationale as historical evidence. The corrected reported-child definition also governs the five-or-more-children cell. Similar residual errors do not revalidate the #813 support, take-up and wealth-draw attribution above under the corrected measurement. Fresh adjudication is required; this annotation is not a renewal or new approval and changes no exclusion decision, approver, approval/expiry date or gate threshold. Source-role/codebook, redraw and native-entitlement work remain separate from calibration relabelling. See https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/blob/7fd55db0a548c0b74566d56fdec776a97e84b89b/experiments/879-corrected-calibration-comparison.md#historical-uc-fit-deferral-rationales.", "approved_by": "juaristi22", "adjudication": "microcosm#796", "approved_on": "2026-08-30",