From 47d778c8aaa33065555242afae3e5e325a859156 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: =?UTF-8?q?Mar=C3=ADa=20Juaristi?= <127882282+juaristi22@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Mon, 7 Sep 2026 13:42:42 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 1/6] Declare survey- and calibration-year rules for UK FRS parameter reads (#862) Three UK FRS stage paths read policyengine-uk parameters at the frame period (2024, the survey year) instead of a declared policy year, the microcosm half of uk-data#475, uk-data#476 and uk-data#478 that uk-data PR #480 fixed on the incumbent side. - frs_release: resolve_uk_year_rule maps a declared year_rule (survey_year | calibration_year) to the release year; anything else fails closed. - frs_disability: categories and flags both read the fiscal-converted gov.dwp tree at the survey year (one cached tree per year) instead of categories on the pre-conversion baseline clone; both derive operations declare year_rule: survey_year and are bound closed-world. - spi_income: the post-redraw disability refresh reuses derive_frs_disability with the same rates, removing the duplicated derivation and its 52-week category divisor; build_period is dropped. - frs_education_grants: grant capacities materialise at the survey year, the three DSA eligibility booleans and the DfE maximum at the calibration year, so the DSA seed is no longer a zero vector; the frame stays stamped at the survey year. - sources.yaml / source_stages.json / sources.schema.json: year_rule is a closed enum on derive, materialize_rules_engine_predictors and the student-loan operations; the grant split declares three operations. - spine_swap_signed_differences: sign disabled_students_allowance_eligible_expenses as a candidate-only column against the pre-uk-data#480 parity reference. - Locks regenerated: release_input_coverage_manifest source-manifest sha, the uk spec digest pin, the graph parity fixture. - Receipt (experiments/862-policy-year-rule-receipts.md): on the pinned FRS 2024-25 tabs every disability category band and flag mass is unchanged; the DSA column opens to 1 record, 4,654 weighted people, GBP 83,772,000 moved out of the education_grants residual, matching uk-data#480's receipt on the same tabs. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 --- .../862-uk-disability-parameter-year.fixed.md | 1 + experiments/862-policy-year-rule-receipts.md | 78 +++++++++ .../spec_engine/schema/sources.schema.json | 26 ++- .../src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json | 25 ++- .../src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml | 18 +- .../uk/spine_swap_signed_differences.json | 25 +++ .../microcosm/build/uk_runtime/__init__.py | 18 +- .../build/uk_runtime/frs_disability.py | 158 ++++++++++-------- .../build/uk_runtime/frs_education_grants.py | 100 ++++++++--- .../microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_release.py | 23 ++- .../microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_income.py | 153 +++-------------- .../microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_spine.py | 1 - .../tests/test_uk_frs_disability.py | 60 ++++--- .../tests/test_uk_frs_education_grants.py | 114 ++++++++++++- .../tests/test_uk_frs_release.py | 12 +- .../tests/test_uk_frs_spine.py | 35 +++- .../tests/test_uk_signed_differences.py | 20 +++ .../tests/test_uk_source_stages.py | 8 + .../tests/test_uk_spi_income.py | 60 ++++++- .../tests/test_uk_spi_spine.py | 6 +- .../parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json | 25 ++- 21 files changed, 694 insertions(+), 272 deletions(-) create mode 100644 changelog.d/862-uk-disability-parameter-year.fixed.md create mode 100644 experiments/862-policy-year-rule-receipts.md diff --git a/changelog.d/862-uk-disability-parameter-year.fixed.md b/changelog.d/862-uk-disability-parameter-year.fixed.md new file mode 100644 index 000000000..ab0f4a67e --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/862-uk-disability-parameter-year.fixed.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +Declare survey- and calibration-year rules for UK FRS stages, align disability category and flag thresholds on the fiscal-converted DWP tree with one weekly conversion, reuse the disability derivation after SPI redraws, and seed Disabled Students' Allowance eligibility and its maximum at the calibration year while preserving the survey-year frame stamp (#862; uk-data#475, uk-data#476, uk-data#478) diff --git a/experiments/862-policy-year-rule-receipts.md b/experiments/862-policy-year-rule-receipts.md new file mode 100644 index 000000000..c31c30075 --- /dev/null +++ b/experiments/862-policy-year-rule-receipts.md @@ -0,0 +1,78 @@ +# #862 policy-year rule receipts + +Stage-level receipt for microcosm#862 (uk-data#475, uk-data#476, uk-data#478 inherited +through parity): the declared FRS stages were run in order through +`frs_education_grant_split` (frs_spine, frs_employment, frs_council_tax, frs_disability, +frs_education, frs_legacy_proxies, frs_education_grant_split; the transforms +`tools/build_uk_frs_spine.py` binds) on the pinned FRS 2024-25 tabs, once on `main` and +once on this branch, with a scratch script that records the disability category bands, +the three flag masses and the DSA column. Person weights are the household weights of the +person's household. Categories are string columns, so their parity share is structurally +1.0; the band counts below are the real check. No calibration ran: the two two-child-limit +disability cells (#808 lineage) are not re-measured here, and a full licensed spine + +calibration run remains available as a follow-up. + +## Inputs and code + +| item | value | +|---|---| +| release | `frs_2024_25` (`uk/frs_release.json`: survey 2024, base 2024, calibration 2025) | +| tabs | UKDS SN 9563 tab zip sha256 `05dd0069587dbd25e5719d355ce05fc0827d5edd58c24ece9ab85acd954a9aeb`, hash-checked per tab by `frs_spine._read_pinned_tab` | +| frame | 34,966 persons, 68,251,110 weighted, `time_period` `2024` on both sides | +| engine | policyengine-uk 2.92.1, policyengine-core 3.31.0 | +| before | `main` `c1b83241` | +| after | this branch (`uk-policy-year-rule-862`; head recorded in the PR) | +| runtime | about 24 s per side, 2026-09-07 | + +## Disability categories (records, weighted persons): identical before and after + +| column | band | records | weighted | +|---|---|---|---| +| aa_category | HIGHER | 635 | 869,690 | +| aa_category | LOWER | 372 | 523,290 | +| dla_sc_category | HIGHER | 212 | 367,409 | +| dla_sc_category | MIDDLE | 292 | 549,247 | +| dla_sc_category | LOWER | 90 | 136,176 | +| dla_m_category | HIGHER | 255 | 391,710 | +| dla_m_category | LOWER | 257 | 511,494 | +| pip_m_category | ENHANCED | 983 | 1,710,945 | +| pip_m_category | STANDARD | 500 | 882,913 | +| pip_dl_category | ENHANCED | 966 | 1,776,373 | +| pip_dl_category | STANDARD | 793 | 1,373,522 | + +Reading: moving the category thresholds from the `baseline` clone (FY 2023-24 rates) to +the fiscal-converted `gov.dwp` tree at the survey year (FY 2024-25 rates) moves no row. +Respondents report the statutory rate in force and adjacent bands are about 49% apart, so +the GBP 6.80 to 7.80 per week threshold shift lands inside every band. This is the same +result uk-data#480 recorded on the incumbent side with the same tabs. + +## Disability flags: identical before and after + +| flag | records | weighted | +|---|---|---| +| is_disabled_for_benefits | 3,729 | 6,184,013 | +| is_enhanced_disabled_for_benefits | 1,813 | 3,013,472 | +| is_severely_disabled_for_benefits | 2,219 | 3,588,886 | + +The SPI refresh now calls the same derivation with the same rates, so the SPI-redrawn +rows cannot diverge from these figures (previously it divided categories by 52 instead of +365.25/7; a unit test pins the equivalence). + +## DSA seed at the calibration year + +| measure | before (`main`) | after (this branch) | +|---|---|---| +| `disabled_students_allowance_eligible_expenses` records > 0 | 0 | 1 | +| weighted people with a positive value | 0 | 4,654 | +| weighted GBP | 0 | 83,772,000 | +| row value | 0 | 18,000 (DfE maximum at 2025-01-01) | +| `education_grants` residual, weighted GBP | 2,816,276,654 | 2,732,504,654 | +| `education_grants` records > 0 | 189 | 188 | + +Reading: the DSA capacity is evaluated at the release calibration year (2025) with the +three eligibility booleans materialised at that year on the 2024 frame, so the seed opens +to one record whose full reported grant moves out of the residual (delta GBP 83,772,000 on +both lines). uk-data#480's receipt on the same tabs found the same thin seed (1 record, +4.7k weighted, GBP 83.8m). The pinned enhanced-FRS parity reference still lists the column +as zero-share, so the register signs it as a candidate-only column +(`dsa-eligible-expenses-seeded-at-calibration-year`) rather than re-minting the reference. diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/spec_engine/schema/sources.schema.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/spec_engine/schema/sources.schema.json index 5415fc7db..3f7350f03 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/spec_engine/schema/sources.schema.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/spec_engine/schema/sources.schema.json @@ -5596,6 +5596,13 @@ }, "fillna": { "type": "number" + }, + "year_rule": { + "type": "string", + "enum": [ + "survey_year", + "calibration_year" + ] } }, "anyOf": [ @@ -5647,6 +5654,13 @@ }, "consumed_only": { "type": "boolean" + }, + "year_rule": { + "type": "string", + "enum": [ + "survey_year", + "calibration_year" + ] } } }, @@ -7410,7 +7424,11 @@ "const": "assign_student_loan_plan_cohorts" }, "year_rule": { - "type": "string" + "type": "string", + "enum": [ + "survey_year", + "calibration_year" + ] }, "start_year_formula": { "type": "string" @@ -7476,7 +7494,11 @@ "type": "string" }, "year_rule": { - "type": "string" + "type": "string", + "enum": [ + "survey_year", + "calibration_year" + ] }, "age_min": { "type": "integer" diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json index ee244422a..77bb87dad 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/source_stages.json @@ -511,11 +511,13 @@ "operations": [ { "kind": "derive", - "parameters": "disability category thresholds from baseline.gov.dwp at Jan-1" + "parameters": "disability category thresholds from the fiscal-converted gov.dwp tree at the survey year", + "year_rule": "survey_year" }, { "kind": "derive", - "parameters": "disability flags from gov.dwp at Jan-1" + "parameters": "disability flags from the fiscal-converted gov.dwp tree at the survey year", + "year_rule": "survey_year" } ], "outputs": [ @@ -669,11 +671,24 @@ "parents_learning_allowance", "adult_dependants_grant" ], - "consumed_only": true + "consumed_only": true, + "year_rule": "survey_year" + }, + { + "kind": "materialize_rules_engine_predictors", + "predictors": [ + "maintenance_loan_in_england_system", + "disabled_students_allowance_course_eligible", + "disabled_students_allowance_has_qualifying_condition" + ], + "consumed_only": true, + "year_rule": "calibration_year" }, { "kind": "derive", - "scope": "proportional split of aggregate education_grants and DSA residual capacity" + "scope": "proportional split of aggregate education_grants and DSA residual capacity", + "parameters": "DSA maximum from gov.dfe.disabled_students_allowance.maximum at the calibration year", + "year_rule": "calibration_year" } ], "outputs": [ @@ -685,7 +700,7 @@ "nonnegative_outputs": [ "disabled_students_allowance_eligible_expenses" ], - "notes": "Runs before BRMA and always runs; both are signed inert differences for 2023-24. Pre-2025 DSA capacity is an aligned zero vector rather than an engine shape-sizing read. EDUCQUAL grant-split compatibility is re-cited to the FRS 2024-25 SN 9563 dictionary; codes 1-87 are empirically present and code 87 remains undocumented/defaulted." + "notes": "Runs before BRMA and always runs; the DSA seed evaluates at the release calibration year (uk-data#478) and the modelling-start gate compares against that year, not the frame period. EDUCQUAL grant-split compatibility is re-cited to the FRS 2024-25 SN 9563 dictionary; codes 1-87 are empirically present and code 87 remains undocumented/defaulted." }, { "stage": "frs_take_up", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml index 568b94cef..b8daecd4f 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spec/sources.yaml @@ -434,9 +434,11 @@ stages: artifacts: [] operations: - kind: derive - parameters: disability category thresholds from baseline.gov.dwp at Jan-1 + parameters: disability category thresholds from the fiscal-converted gov.dwp tree at the survey year + year_rule: survey_year - kind: derive - parameters: disability flags from gov.dwp at Jan-1 + parameters: disability flags from the fiscal-converted gov.dwp tree at the survey year + year_rule: survey_year outputs: - aa_category - dla_sc_category @@ -553,15 +555,25 @@ stages: - parents_learning_allowance - adult_dependants_grant consumed_only: true + year_rule: survey_year + - kind: materialize_rules_engine_predictors + predictors: + - maintenance_loan_in_england_system + - disabled_students_allowance_course_eligible + - disabled_students_allowance_has_qualifying_condition + consumed_only: true + year_rule: calibration_year - kind: derive scope: proportional split of aggregate education_grants and DSA residual capacity + parameters: DSA maximum from gov.dfe.disabled_students_allowance.maximum at the calibration year + year_rule: calibration_year outputs: - disabled_students_allowance_eligible_expenses rewrites: - education_grants nonnegative_outputs: - disabled_students_allowance_eligible_expenses - notes: Runs before BRMA and always runs; both are signed inert differences for 2023-24. Pre-2025 DSA capacity is an aligned zero vector rather than an engine shape-sizing read. EDUCQUAL grant-split compatibility is re-cited to the FRS 2024-25 SN 9563 dictionary; codes 1-87 are empirically present and code 87 remains undocumented/defaulted. + notes: Runs before BRMA and always runs; the DSA seed evaluates at the release calibration year (uk-data#478) and the modelling-start gate compares against that year, not the frame period. EDUCQUAL grant-split compatibility is re-cited to the FRS 2024-25 SN 9563 dictionary; codes 1-87 are empirically present and code 87 remains undocumented/defaulted. - stage: frs_take_up survey: Family Resources Survey 2024-25 source: Family Resources Survey 2024-25 reported receipt anchors plus sourced UK take-up contract rates. diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spine_swap_signed_differences.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spine_swap_signed_differences.json index 399e7dc4c..0b2b3c870 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spine_swap_signed_differences.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/spine_swap_signed_differences.json @@ -612,6 +612,31 @@ } } }, + { + "id": "dsa-eligible-expenses-seeded-at-calibration-year", + "class": "defect_fix", + "scope": { + "surface": "nonzero_shares", + "columns": [ + "disabled_students_allowance_eligible_expenses" + ], + "entities": [ + "person" + ] + }, + "expectation": "column_missing_in_reference", + "magnitude_evidence": "The education-grant split evaluates the DSA eligibility seed and the DfE maximum at the release calibration year (uk-data#478) instead of the frame period, so disabled_students_allowance_eligible_expenses is populated in the candidate while the pinned enhanced-FRS reference, exported before uk-data#480, lists it as a zero-share column. On the pinned FRS 2024-25 tabs the seed is 1 person record, 4,654 weighted people and GBP 83,772,000 at the GBP 18,000 maximum, moved out of the education_grants residual; disability categories and flags are unchanged row for row on the same run.", + "evidence": "experiments/862-policy-year-rule-receipts.md#dsa-seed-at-the-calibration-year", + "adjudicator": "juaristi22", + "adjudicated_on": "2026-09-07", + "quantitative": { + "structural": { + "expected_columns": [ + "disabled_students_allowance_eligible_expenses" + ] + } + } + }, { "id": "uc-deduction-random-draw-net-new-column", "class": "net_new_column", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/__init__.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/__init__.py index 65862e805..f09ddc90e 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/__init__.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/__init__.py @@ -88,12 +88,12 @@ from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.frs_disability import ( FRS_DISABILITY_OUTPUT_COLUMNS, UK_INTERNAL_DISABILITY_REPORTED_COLUMNS, - UKDWPBaselineDisabilityRates, + UKDWPDisabilityCategoryRates, UKDWPDisabilityFlagRates, UKFRSDisabilityStageTransform, add_frs_disability, derive_frs_disability, - uk_dwp_baseline_disability_rates, + uk_dwp_disability_category_rates, uk_dwp_disability_flag_rates, ) from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.frs_education import ( @@ -141,6 +141,12 @@ derive_frs_legacy_proxies, uk_legacy_jsa_policy, ) +from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.frs_release import ( + UK_YEAR_RULES, + UKFRSRelease, + load_uk_frs_release, + resolve_uk_year_rule, +) from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.geography_ladder import ( GEOGRAPHY_LADDER_ARTIFACT_SHA256_ATTR, GEOGRAPHY_LADDER_VINTAGES_ATTR, @@ -875,7 +881,7 @@ "uk_spine_source_family_units", "uk_frame_content_identity", "uk_dsa_policy", - "uk_dwp_baseline_disability_rates", + "uk_dwp_disability_category_rates", "uk_dwp_disability_flag_rates", "uk_legacy_jsa_policy", "uk_geography_ladder_assignment_summary", @@ -932,7 +938,7 @@ "UK_MAX_TARGET_ABS_RELATIVE_ERROR", "UKInputMassParityPolicy", "UKDSAPolicy", - "UKDWPBaselineDisabilityRates", + "UKDWPDisabilityCategoryRates", "UKDWPDisabilityFlagRates", "UKFRSCouncilTaxStageTransform", "UKFRSDisabilityStageTransform", @@ -942,6 +948,7 @@ "UKFRSHMRCSpineLeavesResult", "UKFRSHMRCSpineLeavesStageTransform", "UKFRSLegacyProxiesStageTransform", + "UKFRSRelease", "UKSPIIncomeSpineStageTransform", "UKSPISupportChannelStageTransform", "UKInputMassReference", @@ -949,8 +956,10 @@ "UK_INTERNAL_DISABILITY_REPORTED_COLUMNS", "UK_EDUCATION_GRANT_CAPACITY_PREDICTORS", "UK_LEGACY_PROXY_PREDICTORS", + "UK_YEAR_RULES", "UKQRFTailConcentrationPolicy", "UKZeroWeightStratumDeclaration", + "load_uk_frs_release", "load_uk_input_mass_reference", "load_uk_reviewed_exclusion_register", "uk_degenerate_release_surface_gate", @@ -962,6 +971,7 @@ "uk_target_fit_gate", "uk_target_surface_gate", "uk_weight_ess_gate", + "resolve_uk_year_rule", "uk_weight_ratio_gate", "uk_zero_weight_strata_gate", ] diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_disability.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_disability.py index d3a8d0c6c..78890e152 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_disability.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_disability.py @@ -3,11 +3,16 @@ from __future__ import annotations from dataclasses import dataclass +from functools import lru_cache import numpy as np import pandas as pd from microcosm.build.source_manifest import SourceStageSpec +from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.cgt_structure import ( + _assert_closed_world_operations, +) +from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.frs_release import resolve_uk_year_rule from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.frs_spine import WEEKS_IN_YEAR from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.national_frame import ( uk_household_weight_kind, @@ -43,11 +48,12 @@ "is_enhanced_disabled_for_benefits", "is_severely_disabled_for_benefits", ) +YEAR_RULE = "survey_year" @dataclass(frozen=True) -class UKDWPBaselineDisabilityRates: - """The incumbent categories' rates: the pre-fiscal-conversion baseline subtree.""" +class UKDWPDisabilityCategoryRates: + """Category thresholds from the fiscal-converted ``gov.dwp`` tree.""" aa_lower: float aa_higher: float @@ -66,7 +72,7 @@ class UKDWPBaselineDisabilityRates: @dataclass(frozen=True) class UKDWPDisabilityFlagRates: - """The incumbent flags' rates: the fiscal-converted plain tree.""" + """Flag thresholds from the fiscal-converted ``gov.dwp`` tree.""" aa_higher: float dla_sc_higher: float @@ -82,20 +88,21 @@ def __init__( self, *, stage: SourceStageSpec, - baseline_rates: UKDWPBaselineDisabilityRates | None = None, + category_rates: UKDWPDisabilityCategoryRates | None = None, flag_rates: UKDWPDisabilityFlagRates | None = None, ) -> None: self.stage = stage - self.baseline_rates = baseline_rates + self.category_rates = category_rates self.flag_rates = flag_rates def __call__(self, frame: Frame) -> Frame: - period = uk_time_period(frame) + _assert_frs_disability_stage_parameters(self.stage) + year = resolve_uk_year_rule(YEAR_RULE) return add_frs_disability( frame, - baseline_rates=self.baseline_rates - or uk_dwp_baseline_disability_rates(period), - flag_rates=self.flag_rates or uk_dwp_disability_flag_rates(period), + category_rates=self.category_rates + or uk_dwp_disability_category_rates(year), + flag_rates=self.flag_rates or uk_dwp_disability_flag_rates(year), ) @staticmethod @@ -103,33 +110,22 @@ def output_columns() -> tuple[str, ...]: return FRS_DISABILITY_OUTPUT_COLUMNS -def uk_dwp_baseline_disability_rates( - build_period: int | str, -) -> UKDWPBaselineDisabilityRates: - """Read the incumbent categories' rates: the ``.baseline`` subtree. +def uk_dwp_disability_category_rates( + year: int, +) -> UKDWPDisabilityCategoryRates: + """Read category rates from fiscal-converted ``gov.dwp`` at ``year``. - The baseline-vs-plain split in the incumbent is value-bearing, not just - provenance: the ``baseline`` clone is created before policyengine-uk's - fiscal-year parameter conversion, so at build period 2023 it carries the - April-2022-era weekly rates (e.g. 92.40) that the incumbent's category - thresholds actually use, while the plain tree (the flags reader below) - carries the fiscal-2023-24 values (e.g. 101.75). + The parameter instant is the fiscal-year label instant: policyengine-uk + writes the April rates over the whole labelled year. This corrects the + tree mismatch identified by uk-data#475 and uses the shared 365.25/7 week + conversion identified by uk-data#476. """ - try: - import policyengine_uk - except ImportError as exc: - raise ImportError( - "UK DWP disability parameters require `uv sync --all-packages --extra uk`." - ) from exc + dwp = _uk_dwp_tree(year) + import policyengine_uk - instant = f"{int(build_period)}-01-01" - dwp = ( - policyengine_uk.CountryTaxBenefitSystem() - .parameters(int(build_period)) - .baseline.gov.dwp - ) - return UKDWPBaselineDisabilityRates( + instant = f"{year}-01-01" + return UKDWPDisabilityCategoryRates( aa_lower=_parameter_value(dwp.attendance_allowance.lower, instant), aa_higher=_parameter_value(dwp.attendance_allowance.higher, instant), dla_sc_lower=_parameter_value(dwp.dla.self_care.lower, instant), @@ -142,57 +138,81 @@ def uk_dwp_baseline_disability_rates( pip_dl_standard=_parameter_value(dwp.pip.daily_living.standard, instant), pip_dl_enhanced=_parameter_value(dwp.pip.daily_living.enhanced, instant), instant=instant, - source="policyengine-uk parameters " + source="policyengine-uk parameters (fiscal-converted gov.dwp tree) " f"{getattr(policyengine_uk, '__version__', 'unknown')}", ) -def uk_dwp_disability_flag_rates( - build_period: int | str, -) -> UKDWPDisabilityFlagRates: - """Read the incumbent flags' rates: the plain (fiscal-converted) tree. +def uk_dwp_disability_flag_rates(year: int) -> UKDWPDisabilityFlagRates: + """Read flag rates from fiscal-converted ``gov.dwp`` at ``year``. - The incumbent's flag thresholds come from ``parameters(year).gov.dwp`` - on the model system, whose parameter tree policyengine-uk converts to - fiscal-year snapshots at load — at build period 2023 that is the - fiscal-2023-24 weekly rates (e.g. 101.75), NOT the raw dated files' - January-1 values (92.40). Reading the raw files here produced a - single-row flag divergence against the incumbent's own output, caught - by the licensed head-to-head receipt. + The parameter instant is the fiscal-year label instant: policyengine-uk + writes the April rates over the whole labelled year. This keeps the tree + correction from uk-data#475 and the shared 365.25/7 week conversion from + uk-data#476 aligned with the category derivation. """ - try: - import policyengine_uk - except ImportError as exc: - raise ImportError( - "UK DWP disability parameters require `uv sync --all-packages --extra uk`." - ) from exc + dwp = _uk_dwp_tree(year) + import policyengine_uk - instant = f"{int(build_period)}-01-01" - dwp = ( - policyengine_uk.CountryTaxBenefitSystem() - .parameters(int(build_period)) - .gov.dwp - ) + instant = f"{year}-01-01" return UKDWPDisabilityFlagRates( aa_higher=_parameter_value(dwp.attendance_allowance.higher, instant), dla_sc_higher=_parameter_value(dwp.dla.self_care.higher, instant), pip_dl_enhanced=_parameter_value(dwp.pip.daily_living.enhanced, instant), instant=instant, - source="policyengine-uk parameters (fiscal-converted plain tree) " + source="policyengine-uk parameters (fiscal-converted gov.dwp tree) " f"{getattr(policyengine_uk, '__version__', 'unknown')}", ) +@lru_cache +def _uk_dwp_tree(year: int): + """Return the fiscal-converted DWP tree from one engine per year.""" + + try: + import policyengine_uk + except ImportError as exc: + raise ImportError( + "UK DWP disability parameters require `uv sync --all-packages --extra uk`." + ) from exc + + return policyengine_uk.CountryTaxBenefitSystem().parameters(year).gov.dwp + + +def _assert_frs_disability_stage_parameters(stage: SourceStageSpec) -> None: + """Bind both disability derivations to the reviewed policy-year contract.""" + + _assert_closed_world_operations( + stage, + ( + ( + "derive", + { + "parameters": "disability category thresholds from the fiscal-converted gov.dwp tree at the survey year", + "year_rule": YEAR_RULE, + }, + ), + ( + "derive", + { + "parameters": "disability flags from the fiscal-converted gov.dwp tree at the survey year", + "year_rule": YEAR_RULE, + }, + ), + ), + ) + + def add_frs_disability( frame: Frame, *, - baseline_rates: UKDWPBaselineDisabilityRates, + category_rates: UKDWPDisabilityCategoryRates, flag_rates: UKDWPDisabilityFlagRates, ) -> Frame: person = frame.table("person").copy() derived = derive_frs_disability( - person, baseline_rates=baseline_rates, flag_rates=flag_rates + person, category_rates=category_rates, flag_rates=flag_rates ) for column in FRS_DISABILITY_OUTPUT_COLUMNS: person[column] = derived[column].to_numpy() @@ -212,38 +232,38 @@ def add_frs_disability( def derive_frs_disability( person: pd.DataFrame, *, - baseline_rates: UKDWPBaselineDisabilityRates, + category_rates: UKDWPDisabilityCategoryRates, flag_rates: UKDWPDisabilityFlagRates, ) -> pd.DataFrame: values = pd.DataFrame(index=person.index) values["aa_category"] = _category( _amount(person, "attendance_allowance_reported"), - (("LOWER", baseline_rates.aa_lower), ("HIGHER", baseline_rates.aa_higher)), + (("LOWER", category_rates.aa_lower), ("HIGHER", category_rates.aa_higher)), ) values["dla_sc_category"] = _category( _amount(person, "dla_sc_reported"), ( - ("LOWER", baseline_rates.dla_sc_lower), - ("MIDDLE", baseline_rates.dla_sc_middle), - ("HIGHER", baseline_rates.dla_sc_higher), + ("LOWER", category_rates.dla_sc_lower), + ("MIDDLE", category_rates.dla_sc_middle), + ("HIGHER", category_rates.dla_sc_higher), ), ) values["dla_m_category"] = _category( _amount(person, "dla_m_reported"), - (("LOWER", baseline_rates.dla_m_lower), ("HIGHER", baseline_rates.dla_m_higher)), + (("LOWER", category_rates.dla_m_lower), ("HIGHER", category_rates.dla_m_higher)), ) values["pip_m_category"] = _category( _amount(person, "pip_m_reported"), ( - ("STANDARD", baseline_rates.pip_m_standard), - ("ENHANCED", baseline_rates.pip_m_enhanced), + ("STANDARD", category_rates.pip_m_standard), + ("ENHANCED", category_rates.pip_m_enhanced), ), ) values["pip_dl_category"] = _category( _amount(person, "pip_dl_reported"), ( - ("STANDARD", baseline_rates.pip_dl_standard), - ("ENHANCED", baseline_rates.pip_dl_enhanced), + ("STANDARD", category_rates.pip_dl_standard), + ("ENHANCED", category_rates.pip_dl_enhanced), ), ) total = sum(_amount(person, column) for column in UK_DISABILITY_FLAG_REPORTED_COLUMNS) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_education_grants.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_education_grants.py index 63b1bcc75..0e053ae32 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_education_grants.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_education_grants.py @@ -9,6 +9,10 @@ import pandas as pd from microcosm.build.source_manifest import SourceStageSpec +from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.cgt_structure import ( + _assert_closed_world_operations, +) +from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.frs_release import resolve_uk_year_rule from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.national_frame import ( uk_household_weight_kind, uk_national_frame, @@ -33,11 +37,13 @@ "disabled_students_allowance_course_eligible", "disabled_students_allowance_has_qualifying_condition", ) +GRANT_CAPACITY_YEAR_RULE = "survey_year" +DSA_YEAR_RULE = "calibration_year" @dataclass(frozen=True) class UKDSAPolicy: - """DSA maximum read at 1 January of the build year.""" + """DSA maximum read at 1 January of the declared policy year.""" maximum: float instant: str @@ -45,7 +51,13 @@ class UKDSAPolicy: class UKFRSEducationGrantSplitStageTransform: - """Whole-stage callable for FRS education grant splitting.""" + """Whole-stage callable for FRS education grant splitting. + + ``PolicyEngineUKEngine.materialize`` labels the 2024 input tables as a + ``fiscal_year=2025`` dataset rather than uprating them. The three DSA + eligibility variables are non-monetary booleans, so this calibration-year + seed cannot differ from an uprated evaluation. + """ def __init__( self, @@ -59,23 +71,35 @@ def __init__( self.policy = policy def __call__(self, frame: Frame) -> Frame: - period = uk_time_period(frame) + _assert_frs_education_grant_stage_parameters(self.stage) assert_rules_engine_country(self.engine, "uk") - predictors = list(UK_EDUCATION_GRANT_CAPACITY_PREDICTORS) - if int(period) >= DISABLED_STUDENTS_ALLOWANCE_FIRST_MODELED_YEAR: - predictors.extend(DISABLED_STUDENTS_ALLOWANCE_ELIGIBILITY_VARIABLES) - materialized = self.engine.materialize(frame, predictors, period) - policy = self.policy - if policy is None and int(period) < DISABLED_STUDENTS_ALLOWANCE_FIRST_MODELED_YEAR: + survey_year = resolve_uk_year_rule(GRANT_CAPACITY_YEAR_RULE) + policy_year = resolve_uk_year_rule(DSA_YEAR_RULE) + capacities = self.engine.materialize( + frame, + UK_EDUCATION_GRANT_CAPACITY_PREDICTORS, + survey_year, + ) + if policy_year >= DISABLED_STUDENTS_ALLOWANCE_FIRST_MODELED_YEAR: + capacities.update( + self.engine.materialize( + frame, + DISABLED_STUDENTS_ALLOWANCE_ELIGIBILITY_VARIABLES, + policy_year, + ) + ) + policy = self.policy or uk_dsa_policy(policy_year) + else: policy = UKDSAPolicy( maximum=0.0, - instant=f"{int(period)}-01-01", + instant=f"{policy_year}-01-01", source="pre-2025 DSA not modelled", ) return add_frs_education_grant_split( frame, - capacities=materialized, - policy=policy or uk_dsa_policy(period), + capacities=capacities, + policy=policy, + policy_year=policy_year, ) @staticmethod @@ -83,8 +107,8 @@ def output_columns() -> tuple[str, ...]: return FRS_EDUCATION_GRANT_OUTPUT_COLUMNS -def uk_dsa_policy(build_period: int | str) -> UKDSAPolicy: - """Read DSA maximum at ``{year}-01-01`` for future vintages.""" +def uk_dsa_policy(policy_year: int) -> UKDSAPolicy: + """Read the DSA maximum at ``{policy_year}-01-01`` (uk-data#478).""" try: import policyengine_uk @@ -97,7 +121,7 @@ def uk_dsa_policy(build_period: int | str) -> UKDSAPolicy: parameters = ParameterNode( directory_path=str(Path(policyengine_uk.__file__).parent / "parameters") ) - instant = f"{int(build_period)}-01-01" + instant = f"{policy_year}-01-01" return UKDSAPolicy( maximum=float(parameters.gov.dfe.disabled_students_allowance.maximum(instant)), instant=instant, @@ -111,14 +135,14 @@ def add_frs_education_grant_split( *, capacities: dict[str, np.ndarray], policy: UKDSAPolicy, + policy_year: int, ) -> Frame: person = frame.table("person").copy() - period = int(uk_time_period(frame)) dsa_capacity = disabled_students_allowance_capacity( person, capacities=capacities, policy=policy, - year=period, + policy_year=policy_year, ) grant_capacities = { name: capacities[name] for name in UK_EDUCATION_GRANT_CAPACITY_PREDICTORS @@ -132,7 +156,7 @@ def add_frs_education_grant_split( person=person, benunit=frame.table("benunit"), household=frame.table("household"), - time_period=str(period), + time_period=uk_time_period(frame), weight_kind=uk_household_weight_kind(frame), household_weights=frame.weights_for("household").values, mass_log=frame.mass_log, @@ -177,11 +201,47 @@ def disabled_students_allowance_capacity( *, capacities: dict[str, np.ndarray], policy: UKDSAPolicy, - year: int, + policy_year: int, ) -> np.ndarray: - if year < DISABLED_STUDENTS_ALLOWANCE_FIRST_MODELED_YEAR: + if policy_year < DISABLED_STUDENTS_ALLOWANCE_FIRST_MODELED_YEAR: return np.zeros(len(person), dtype=float) eligible = np.ones(len(person), dtype=bool) for variable in DISABLED_STUDENTS_ALLOWANCE_ELIGIBILITY_VARIABLES: eligible &= np.asarray(capacities[variable], dtype=bool) return np.where(eligible, policy.maximum, 0.0) + + +def _assert_frs_education_grant_stage_parameters(stage: SourceStageSpec) -> None: + """Bind all grant-split operations to the reviewed policy-year contract.""" + + _assert_closed_world_operations( + stage, + ( + ( + "materialize_rules_engine_predictors", + { + "predictors": list(UK_EDUCATION_GRANT_CAPACITY_PREDICTORS), + "consumed_only": True, + "year_rule": GRANT_CAPACITY_YEAR_RULE, + }, + ), + ( + "materialize_rules_engine_predictors", + { + "predictors": list( + DISABLED_STUDENTS_ALLOWANCE_ELIGIBILITY_VARIABLES + ), + "consumed_only": True, + "year_rule": DSA_YEAR_RULE, + }, + ), + ( + "derive", + { + "scope": "proportional split of aggregate education_grants and DSA residual capacity", + "parameters": "DSA maximum from gov.dfe.disabled_students_allowance.maximum at the calibration year", + "year_rule": DSA_YEAR_RULE, + }, + ), + ), + ) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_release.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_release.py index c8472abe3..0623f0034 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_release.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_release.py @@ -10,10 +10,16 @@ from importlib.resources import files from typing import Any -__all__ = ["UKFRSRelease", "load_uk_frs_release"] +__all__ = [ + "UK_YEAR_RULES", + "UKFRSRelease", + "load_uk_frs_release", + "resolve_uk_year_rule", +] _LOWER_SHA256 = re.compile(r"^[0-9a-f]{64}$") _VINTAGE = re.compile(r"^\d{4}_\d{2}$") +UK_YEAR_RULES = ("survey_year", "calibration_year") @dataclass(frozen=True) @@ -67,6 +73,21 @@ def load_uk_frs_release() -> UKFRSRelease: return release +def resolve_uk_year_rule( + rule: str, + *, + release: UKFRSRelease | None = None, +) -> int: + """Map a declared year_rule to its release year; reject any other string.""" + + if rule not in UK_YEAR_RULES: + raise ValueError( + f"Unknown UK year_rule {rule!r}; expected one of {UK_YEAR_RULES}." + ) + release = release or load_uk_frs_release() + return int(getattr(release, rule)) + + def _int(raw: Mapping[str, Any], key: str) -> int: value = raw.get(key) if isinstance(value, bool) or not isinstance(value, int): diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_income.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_income.py index db372fb0c..cc5b0dbf3 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_income.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_income.py @@ -5,7 +5,6 @@ import hashlib from collections.abc import Mapping, Sequence from dataclasses import dataclass -from functools import cache from importlib import import_module from pathlib import Path from typing import Any @@ -366,7 +365,6 @@ def impute_uk_spi_income_support( seed: int = 42, n_estimators: int = 100, donor_sample_size: int | None = DEFAULT_SPI_DONOR_SAMPLE_SIZE, - build_period: int | str = 2023, verified_donor: VerifiedSPIDonorIdentity | None = None, donor_table: pd.DataFrame | None = None, initialize_frs_channel_columns: Mapping[str, float] | None = None, @@ -653,10 +651,15 @@ def impute_uk_spi_income_support( ) person.loc[spi_people, "savings_interest_income"] = taxable_interest_draw + tax_free person = derive_hmrc_income_auxiliaries(person, row_mask=spi_people) + from microcosm.build.uk_runtime import frs_disability + from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.frs_release import resolve_uk_year_rule + + year = resolve_uk_year_rule(frs_disability.YEAR_RULE) person = _refresh_disability_derived_inputs( person, spi_people=spi_people, - build_period=build_period, + category_rates=frs_disability.uk_dwp_disability_category_rates(year), + flag_rates=frs_disability.uk_dwp_disability_flag_rates(year), ) return UKSPIIncomeImputationResult( person=person, @@ -1261,143 +1264,31 @@ def _verify_spi_donor_identity(path: Path) -> VerifiedSPIDonorIdentity: return verify_spi_donor_identity(path) -@cache -def _disability_parameters(year: int): - from policyengine_uk import CountryTaxBenefitSystem - from policyengine_uk.model_api import WEEKS_IN_YEAR - - system = CountryTaxBenefitSystem() - return ( - system.parameters(year).baseline.gov.dwp, - system.parameters(year).gov.dwp, - float(WEEKS_IN_YEAR), - ) - - def _refresh_disability_derived_inputs( person: pd.DataFrame, *, spi_people: pd.Series, - build_period: int | str, + category_rates, + flag_rates, ) -> pd.DataFrame: """Keep category/flag inputs coherent with stage-2 reported amounts.""" - try: - year = int(str(build_period)[:4]) - except ValueError as exc: - raise ValueError(f"Invalid UK SPI build period {build_period!r}.") from exc - baseline_dwp, dwp, weeks_in_year = _disability_parameters(year) - target = person.loc[spi_people].copy() - mappings = ( - ( - "attendance_allowance_reported", - "aa_category", - ( - ("LOWER", baseline_dwp.attendance_allowance.lower), - ("HIGHER", baseline_dwp.attendance_allowance.higher), - ), - ), - ( - "dla_sc_reported", - "dla_sc_category", - ( - ("LOWER", baseline_dwp.dla.self_care.lower), - ("MIDDLE", baseline_dwp.dla.self_care.middle), - ("HIGHER", baseline_dwp.dla.self_care.higher), - ), - ), - ( - "dla_m_reported", - "dla_m_category", - ( - ("LOWER", baseline_dwp.dla.mobility.lower), - ("HIGHER", baseline_dwp.dla.mobility.higher), - ), - ), - ( - "pip_m_reported", - "pip_m_category", - ( - ("STANDARD", baseline_dwp.pip.mobility.standard), - ("ENHANCED", baseline_dwp.pip.mobility.enhanced), - ), - ), - ( - "pip_dl_reported", - "pip_dl_category", - ( - ("STANDARD", baseline_dwp.pip.daily_living.standard), - ("ENHANCED", baseline_dwp.pip.daily_living.enhanced), - ), - ), - ) - for reported, category, thresholds in mappings: - if reported not in target: - continue - weekly = pd.to_numeric(target[reported], errors="coerce").fillna(0.0) - weekly = weekly.to_numpy(dtype=float) / weeks_in_year - values = np.full(len(target), "NONE", dtype=object) - for name, rate in thresholds: - threshold = max(0.0, float(rate) - 1.0) - values[weekly >= threshold] = name - _assign_spi_values(person, spi_people, category, values, default="NONE") - - reported_flag_columns = ( - "attendance_allowance_reported", - "dla_sc_reported", - "dla_m_reported", - "pip_m_reported", - "pip_dl_reported", - "sda_reported", - "incapacity_benefit_reported", - "iidb_reported", - "afcs_reported", - "esa_contrib_reported", - "esa_income_reported", - ) - total = np.zeros(len(target), dtype=float) - for column in reported_flag_columns: - if column in target: - total += pd.to_numeric(target[column], errors="coerce").fillna(0.0) - _assign_spi_values( - person, - spi_people, - "is_disabled_for_benefits", - total > 0.0, - default=False, - ) + from microcosm.build.uk_runtime import frs_disability - def amount(column: str) -> np.ndarray: - if column not in target: - return np.zeros(len(target), dtype=float) - return pd.to_numeric(target[column], errors="coerce").fillna(0.0).to_numpy() - - annual_weeks = 365.25 / 7.0 - safety_gap = annual_weeks - attendance = amount("attendance_allowance_reported") - dla_sc = amount("dla_sc_reported") - pip_dl = amount("pip_dl_reported") - afcs = amount("afcs_reported") - aa_higher = float(dwp.attendance_allowance.higher) * annual_weeks - safety_gap - dla_higher = float(dwp.dla.self_care.higher) * annual_weeks - safety_gap - pip_enhanced = float(dwp.pip.daily_living.enhanced) * annual_weeks - safety_gap - _assign_spi_values( - person, - spi_people, - "is_enhanced_disabled_for_benefits", - (attendance >= aa_higher) | (dla_sc > dla_higher) | (pip_dl >= pip_enhanced), - default=False, - ) - _assign_spi_values( - person, - spi_people, - "is_severely_disabled_for_benefits", - (attendance > 0.0) - | (dla_sc >= dla_higher) - | (pip_dl >= pip_enhanced) - | (afcs > 0.0), - default=False, + derived = frs_disability.derive_frs_disability( + person.loc[spi_people], + category_rates=category_rates, + flag_rates=flag_rates, ) + for column in frs_disability.FRS_DISABILITY_OUTPUT_COLUMNS: + default = "NONE" if column.endswith("_category") else False + _assign_spi_values( + person, + spi_people, + column, + derived[column].to_numpy(), + default=default, + ) return person diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_spine.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_spine.py index fb3ee169e..b023ab85f 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_spine.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_spine.py @@ -529,7 +529,6 @@ def __call__(self, frame: Frame) -> Frame: seed=self.seed, n_estimators=self.qrf_estimators, donor_sample_size=self.donor_sample_size, - build_period=uk_time_period(frame), verified_donor=donor_identity, donor_table=self.donor_table, initialize_frs_channel_columns=stage1_op.parameters[ diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_frs_disability.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_frs_disability.py index 912cc2032..22c712a30 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_frs_disability.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_frs_disability.py @@ -1,20 +1,25 @@ from __future__ import annotations +from dataclasses import replace + import numpy as np import pandas as pd import pytest +from microcosm.build.country_spec import load_country_spec +from microcosm.build.source_manifest import SourceOperationSpec from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.frs_disability import ( - UKDWPBaselineDisabilityRates, + UKDWPDisabilityCategoryRates, UKDWPDisabilityFlagRates, + _assert_frs_disability_stage_parameters, derive_frs_disability, - uk_dwp_baseline_disability_rates, + uk_dwp_disability_category_rates, ) from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.frs_spine import WEEKS_IN_YEAR -def _baseline() -> UKDWPBaselineDisabilityRates: - return UKDWPBaselineDisabilityRates( +def _category_rates() -> UKDWPDisabilityCategoryRates: + return UKDWPDisabilityCategoryRates( aa_lower=10, aa_higher=20, dla_sc_lower=10, @@ -26,7 +31,7 @@ def _baseline() -> UKDWPBaselineDisabilityRates: pip_m_enhanced=20, pip_dl_standard=10, pip_dl_enhanced=20, - instant="2023-01-01", + instant="2024-01-01", source="fixture", ) @@ -36,7 +41,7 @@ def _flags() -> UKDWPDisabilityFlagRates: aa_higher=20, dla_sc_higher=30, pip_dl_enhanced=20, - instant="2023-01-01", + instant="2024-01-01", source="fixture", ) @@ -56,7 +61,7 @@ def test_disability_category_threshold_and_overwrite() -> None: ) result = derive_frs_disability( - person, baseline_rates=_baseline(), flag_rates=_flags() + person, category_rates=_category_rates(), flag_rates=_flags() ) assert result["aa_category"].tolist() == ["HIGHER", "LOWER"] @@ -81,7 +86,7 @@ def test_disability_flag_operator_asymmetry_and_afcs() -> None: ) result = derive_frs_disability( - person, baseline_rates=_baseline(), flag_rates=_flags() + person, category_rates=_category_rates(), flag_rates=_flags() ) assert result["is_enhanced_disabled_for_benefits"].tolist() == [False, False] @@ -89,24 +94,35 @@ def test_disability_flag_operator_asymmetry_and_afcs() -> None: @pytest.mark.requires_uk -def test_dwp_reader_split_is_value_bearing() -> None: +def test_dwp_readers_share_fiscal_converted_tree() -> None: # The readers construct the real engine's parameter tree; the wheel gate # and the us-extra CI lane run without policyengine-uk, so skip there. - # The baseline-vs-plain split carries different VALUES, not just - # provenance: the baseline clone escapes policyengine-uk's fiscal-year - # conversion (April-2022-era weekly rates at build period 2023), while - # the plain tree the incumbent's flags read is fiscal-2023-24. A licensed - # head-to-head against the incumbent's own output caught the one-row - # flag divergence when both readers used the raw-file January values. from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.frs_disability import ( uk_dwp_disability_flag_rates, ) - rates = uk_dwp_baseline_disability_rates(2023) - flag_rates = uk_dwp_disability_flag_rates(2023) + category_2024 = uk_dwp_disability_category_rates(2024) + flags_2024 = uk_dwp_disability_flag_rates(2024) + category_2023 = uk_dwp_disability_category_rates(2023) + flags_2023 = uk_dwp_disability_flag_rates(2023) + + assert category_2024.instant == flags_2024.instant == "2024-01-01" + assert np.isfinite(category_2024.aa_lower) + assert category_2024.aa_higher == flags_2024.aa_higher == pytest.approx(108.55) + assert category_2023.aa_higher == flags_2023.aa_higher == pytest.approx(101.75) + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize("operation_index", [0, 1]) +def test_disability_stage_rejects_year_rule_drift(operation_index: int) -> None: + stage = load_country_spec("uk").sources.stage_map()["frs_disability"] + operations = list(stage.operations) + operation = operations[operation_index] + operations[operation_index] = SourceOperationSpec( + operation.kind, + {**operation.parameters, "year_rule": "calibration_year"}, + ) - assert rates.instant == "2023-01-01" - assert np.isfinite(rates.aa_lower) - assert rates.aa_higher == pytest.approx(92.40) - assert flag_rates.aa_higher == pytest.approx(101.75) - assert flag_rates.dla_sc_higher > rates.dla_sc_higher + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="declaration drifted"): + _assert_frs_disability_stage_parameters( + replace(stage, operations=tuple(operations)) + ) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_frs_education_grants.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_frs_education_grants.py index ab400e9b6..511c4404a 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_frs_education_grants.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_frs_education_grants.py @@ -1,13 +1,26 @@ from __future__ import annotations +from dataclasses import replace + import numpy as np import pandas as pd +import pytest +from microcosm.build.country_spec import load_country_spec +from microcosm.build.source_manifest import SourceOperationSpec from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.frs_education_grants import ( + DISABLED_STUDENTS_ALLOWANCE_ELIGIBILITY_VARIABLES, + UK_EDUCATION_GRANT_CAPACITY_PREDICTORS, UKDSAPolicy, + UKFRSEducationGrantSplitStageTransform, + _assert_frs_education_grant_stage_parameters, allocate_reported_education_grants, disabled_students_allowance_capacity, ) +from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.national_frame import ( + uk_national_frame, + uk_time_period, +) def test_grant_allocator_caps_fraction_and_keeps_residual() -> None: @@ -34,8 +47,107 @@ def test_pre_2025_dsa_capacity_is_aligned_zero_vector() -> None: person, capacities={}, policy=UKDSAPolicy(maximum=100.0, instant="2023-01-01", source="fixture"), - year=2023, + policy_year=2023, ) assert result.shape == (3,) assert result.tolist() == [0.0, 0.0, 0.0] + + +def test_2025_dsa_capacity_seeds_maximum_for_fully_eligible_people() -> None: + person = pd.DataFrame(index=[10, 20, 30, 40]) + capacities = { + "maintenance_loan_in_england_system": np.array([True, True, True, False]), + "disabled_students_allowance_course_eligible": np.array( + [True, True, False, True] + ), + "disabled_students_allowance_has_qualifying_condition": np.array( + [True, False, True, True] + ), + } + + result = disabled_students_allowance_capacity( + person, + capacities=capacities, + policy=UKDSAPolicy(maximum=100.0, instant="2025-01-01", source="fixture"), + policy_year=2025, + ) + + assert result.tolist() == [100.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0] + + +def test_transform_materializes_survey_and_calibration_years( + monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch, +) -> None: + stage = load_country_spec("uk").sources.stage_map()[ + "frs_education_grant_split" + ] + frame = uk_national_frame( + person=pd.DataFrame( + { + "person_id": [1], + "person_benunit_id": [1], + "person_household_id": [1], + "education_grants": [100.0], + } + ), + benunit=pd.DataFrame({"benunit_id": [1]}), + household=pd.DataFrame({"household_id": [1]}), + time_period="2024", + household_weights=[1.0], + ) + + class _StubEngine: + country = "uk" + + def __init__(self) -> None: + self.calls: list[tuple[tuple[str, ...], int]] = [] + + def materialize(self, frame, variables, period): + self.calls.append((tuple(variables), period)) + if tuple(variables) == UK_EDUCATION_GRANT_CAPACITY_PREDICTORS: + return {name: np.array([0.0]) for name in variables} + return {name: np.array([True]) for name in variables} + + policy_years: list[int] = [] + + def _policy(policy_year: int) -> UKDSAPolicy: + policy_years.append(policy_year) + return UKDSAPolicy( + maximum=100.0, + instant=f"{policy_year}-01-01", + source="fixture", + ) + + monkeypatch.setattr( + "microcosm.build.uk_runtime.frs_education_grants.uk_dsa_policy", + _policy, + ) + engine = _StubEngine() + + result = UKFRSEducationGrantSplitStageTransform(stage=stage, engine=engine)(frame) + + assert engine.calls == [ + (UK_EDUCATION_GRANT_CAPACITY_PREDICTORS, 2024), + (DISABLED_STUDENTS_ALLOWANCE_ELIGIBILITY_VARIABLES, 2025), + ] + assert policy_years == [2025] + assert uk_time_period(result) == "2024" + + +@pytest.mark.parametrize("operation_index", [0, 1, 2]) +def test_grant_stage_rejects_year_rule_drift(operation_index: int) -> None: + stage = load_country_spec("uk").sources.stage_map()[ + "frs_education_grant_split" + ] + operations = list(stage.operations) + operation = operations[operation_index] + operations[operation_index] = SourceOperationSpec( + operation.kind, + {**operation.parameters, "year_rule": "__drift__"}, + ) + + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="declaration drifted"): + _assert_frs_education_grant_stage_parameters( + replace(stage, operations=tuple(operations)) + ) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_frs_release.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_frs_release.py index 48cfda58a..cd0522526 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_frs_release.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_frs_release.py @@ -8,7 +8,10 @@ from microcosm.build.source_manifest import SourceManifest from microcosm.build.uk_runtime import frs_spine -from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.frs_release import load_uk_frs_release +from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.frs_release import ( + load_uk_frs_release, + resolve_uk_year_rule, +) from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.take_up_contract import load_uk_take_up_contract @@ -47,6 +50,13 @@ def test_uk_frs_release_loads_and_controls_runtime_period() -> None: assert release.doi == "10.5255/UKDA-SN-9563-1" +def test_uk_year_rules_resolve_from_release() -> None: + assert resolve_uk_year_rule("survey_year") == 2024 + assert resolve_uk_year_rule("calibration_year") == 2025 + with pytest.raises(ValueError, match="Unknown UK year_rule"): + resolve_uk_year_rule("base_year") + + def test_release_lockstep_with_source_manifest_and_take_up_contract() -> None: release = load_uk_frs_release() manifest = _source_manifest() diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_frs_spine.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_frs_spine.py index dfb1f3b67..5b5c7437e 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_frs_spine.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_frs_spine.py @@ -435,6 +435,18 @@ def source_stage( ), source_stage( "frs_disability", + operations=[ + { + "kind": "derive", + "parameters": "disability category thresholds from the fiscal-converted gov.dwp tree at the survey year", + "year_rule": "survey_year", + }, + { + "kind": "derive", + "parameters": "disability flags from the fiscal-converted gov.dwp tree at the survey year", + "year_rule": "survey_year", + }, + ], outputs=( "aa_category", "dla_sc_category", @@ -494,8 +506,25 @@ def source_stage( "parents_learning_allowance", "adult_dependants_grant", ], + "consumed_only": True, + "year_rule": "survey_year", + }, + { + "kind": "materialize_rules_engine_predictors", + "predictors": [ + "maintenance_loan_in_england_system", + "disabled_students_allowance_course_eligible", + "disabled_students_allowance_has_qualifying_condition", + ], + "consumed_only": True, + "year_rule": "calibration_year", + }, + { + "kind": "derive", + "scope": "proportional split of aggregate education_grants and DSA residual capacity", + "parameters": "DSA maximum from gov.dfe.disabled_students_allowance.maximum at the calibration year", + "year_rule": "calibration_year", }, - {"kind": "derive"}, ], outputs=("disabled_students_allowance_eligible_expenses",), rewrites=("education_grants",), @@ -1032,8 +1061,8 @@ def _stub_policy_readers(monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch) -> None: monkeypatch.setattr( frs_disability, - "uk_dwp_baseline_disability_rates", - lambda period: frs_disability.UKDWPBaselineDisabilityRates( + "uk_dwp_disability_category_rates", + lambda period: frs_disability.UKDWPDisabilityCategoryRates( aa_lower=68.1, aa_higher=101.75, dla_sc_lower=26.9, diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_signed_differences.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_signed_differences.py index 9852faabe..34d31d92e 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_signed_differences.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_signed_differences.py @@ -157,6 +157,26 @@ def test_uc_capital_entries_pin_new_exports_and_retired_claim_lift(self) -> None ), } + def test_dsa_entry_pins_calibration_year_seed(self) -> None: + register = load_uk_spine_swap_signed_differences() + + entry = register.matching( + surface="nonzero_shares", + column="disabled_students_allowance_eligible_expenses", + expectation="column_missing_in_reference", + entity="person", + ) + assert entry is not None + assert entry.id == "dsa-eligible-expenses-seeded-at-calibration-year" + assert entry.difference_class == "defect_fix" + assert entry.quantitative == { + "structural": { + "expected_columns": [ + "disabled_students_allowance_eligible_expenses" + ] + } + } + def test_committed_entries_are_precisely_scoped(self) -> None: # A surface-wide entry (empty columns) signs every column on that # surface. That is a real capability for entity_counts, but on a diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_source_stages.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_source_stages.py index 30c2be5a0..2d435d4f4 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_source_stages.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_source_stages.py @@ -584,6 +584,7 @@ def test_e3_operation_kinds_are_declared_in_order(self) -> None: "derive", ] assert [op.kind for op in stages["frs_education_grant_split"].operations] == [ + "materialize_rules_engine_predictors", "materialize_rules_engine_predictors", "derive", ] @@ -721,6 +722,7 @@ def test_engine_predictor_and_rewrite_constants_match_manifest(self) -> None: from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.etb_vat import UK_ETB_VAT_PREDICTORS from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.frs_brma import UK_BRMA_PREDICTORS from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.frs_education_grants import ( + DISABLED_STUDENTS_ALLOWANCE_ELIGIBILITY_VARIABLES, FRS_EDUCATION_GRANT_REWRITES, UK_EDUCATION_GRANT_CAPACITY_PREDICTORS, ) @@ -755,8 +757,14 @@ def test_engine_predictor_and_rewrite_constants_match_manifest(self) -> None: grant_predictors = ( stages["frs_education_grant_split"].operations[0].parameters["predictors"] ) + dsa_predictors = stages["frs_education_grant_split"].operations[1].parameters[ + "predictors" + ] assert tuple(legacy_predictors) == UK_LEGACY_PROXY_PREDICTORS assert tuple(grant_predictors) == UK_EDUCATION_GRANT_CAPACITY_PREDICTORS + assert tuple(dsa_predictors) == ( + DISABLED_STUDENTS_ALLOWANCE_ELIGIBILITY_VARIABLES + ) assert ( stages["frs_education_grant_split"].rewrites == FRS_EDUCATION_GRANT_REWRITES ) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_spi_income.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_spi_income.py index 0474e6838..14d2b7314 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_spi_income.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_spi_income.py @@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ import pandas as pd import pytest -from microcosm.build.uk_runtime import spi_income +from microcosm.build.uk_runtime import frs_disability, spi_income from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.frs_hmrc_leaves import ( FRS_HMRC_OSSBEN_IDENTIFIABLE_SUBSET_COLUMN, FRS_HMRC_RETAINED_LEAF_COLUMNS, @@ -228,6 +228,64 @@ def _bypass_reviewed_donor_identity(monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch) -> None: monkeypatch.setattr(spi_income, "_verify_spi_donor_identity", lambda _: None) +def test_spi_disability_refresh_reuses_frs_derivation_for_spi_people() -> None: + weeks = 365.25 / 7 + person = pd.DataFrame( + { + "attendance_allowance_reported": [0.0, 19 * weeks, 0.0], + "afcs_reported": [0.0, 0.0, 1.0], + }, + index=[10, 20, 30], + ) + for column in frs_disability.FRS_DISABILITY_OUTPUT_COLUMNS: + if column.endswith("_category"): + person[column] = ["BASE", "STALE", "STALE"] + else: + person[column] = [True, False, False] + spi_people = pd.Series([False, True, True], index=person.index) + category_rates = frs_disability.UKDWPDisabilityCategoryRates( + aa_lower=10, + aa_higher=20, + dla_sc_lower=10, + dla_sc_middle=20, + dla_sc_higher=30, + dla_m_lower=10, + dla_m_higher=20, + pip_m_standard=10, + pip_m_enhanced=20, + pip_dl_standard=10, + pip_dl_enhanced=20, + instant="2024-01-01", + source="fixture", + ) + flag_rates = frs_disability.UKDWPDisabilityFlagRates( + aa_higher=20, + dla_sc_higher=30, + pip_dl_enhanced=20, + instant="2024-01-01", + source="fixture", + ) + output_columns = list(frs_disability.FRS_DISABILITY_OUTPUT_COLUMNS) + non_spi_before = person.loc[~spi_people, output_columns].copy() + expected = frs_disability.derive_frs_disability( + person.loc[spi_people], + category_rates=category_rates, + flag_rates=flag_rates, + ) + + result = spi_income._refresh_disability_derived_inputs( + person, + spi_people=spi_people, + category_rates=category_rates, + flag_rates=flag_rates, + ) + + pd.testing.assert_frame_equal(result.loc[spi_people, output_columns], expected) + pd.testing.assert_frame_equal( + result.loc[~spi_people, output_columns], non_spi_before + ) + + @pytest.mark.requires_uk def test_spi_preserves_observed_children_outside_the_donor_age_domain( monkeypatch, tmp_path diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_spi_spine.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_spi_spine.py index 26ad41621..632af2652 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_spi_spine.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_spi_spine.py @@ -402,7 +402,7 @@ def test_spi_income_zero_initializes_frs_charity_and_redraws_dividends_after_sta monkeypatch.setattr( spi_income, "_refresh_disability_derived_inputs", - lambda person, spi_people, build_period: person, + lambda person, *, spi_people, category_rates, flag_rates: person, ) support = build_uk_spi_support_channel( person=_base_frame().table("person"), @@ -464,7 +464,7 @@ def test_reviewed_absent_incapacity_signal_raises(tmp_path: Path) -> None: monkeypatch.setattr( spi_income, "_refresh_disability_derived_inputs", - lambda person, spi_people, build_period: person, + lambda person, *, spi_people, category_rates, flag_rates: person, ) support = build_uk_spi_support_channel( person=_base_frame() @@ -532,7 +532,7 @@ def test_spi_spine_parsed_inputs_match_the_path_resolution( monkeypatch.setattr( spi_income, "_refresh_disability_derived_inputs", - lambda person, spi_people, build_period: person, + lambda person, *, spi_people, category_rates, flag_rates: person, ) # This test checks parsed/path source resolution, independently of the engine. diff --git a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json index 7f927bd55..043c0d296 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/sources/fixture.json @@ -490,11 +490,13 @@ "operations": [ { "kind": "derive", - "parameters": "disability category thresholds from baseline.gov.dwp at Jan-1" + "parameters": "disability category thresholds from the fiscal-converted gov.dwp tree at the survey year", + "year_rule": "survey_year" }, { "kind": "derive", - "parameters": "disability flags from gov.dwp at Jan-1" + "parameters": "disability flags from the fiscal-converted gov.dwp tree at the survey year", + "year_rule": "survey_year" } ], "outputs": [ @@ -589,7 +591,7 @@ "nonnegative_outputs": [ "disabled_students_allowance_eligible_expenses" ], - "notes": "Runs before BRMA and always runs; both are signed inert differences for 2023-24. Pre-2025 DSA capacity is an aligned zero vector rather than an engine shape-sizing read. EDUCQUAL grant-split compatibility is re-cited to the FRS 2024-25 SN 9563 dictionary; codes 1-87 are empirically present and code 87 remains undocumented/defaulted.", + "notes": "Runs before BRMA and always runs; the DSA seed evaluates at the release calibration year (uk-data#478) and the modelling-start gate compares against that year, not the frame period. EDUCQUAL grant-split compatibility is re-cited to the FRS 2024-25 SN 9563 dictionary; codes 1-87 are empirically present and code 87 remains undocumented/defaulted.", "operations": [ { "consumed_only": true, @@ -598,11 +600,24 @@ "childcare_grant", "parents_learning_allowance", "adult_dependants_grant" - ] + ], + "year_rule": "survey_year" + }, + { + "consumed_only": true, + "kind": "materialize_rules_engine_predictors", + "predictors": [ + "maintenance_loan_in_england_system", + "disabled_students_allowance_course_eligible", + "disabled_students_allowance_has_qualifying_condition" + ], + "year_rule": "calibration_year" }, { "kind": "derive", - "scope": "proportional split of aggregate education_grants and DSA residual capacity" + "parameters": "DSA maximum from gov.dfe.disabled_students_allowance.maximum at the calibration year", + "scope": "proportional split of aggregate education_grants and DSA residual capacity", + "year_rule": "calibration_year" } ], "outputs": [ From f250c72c615b8272077d2e92174db2a47cd24194 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: =?UTF-8?q?Mar=C3=ADa=20Juaristi?= <127882282+juaristi22@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Mon, 7 Sep 2026 13:42:57 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 2/6] Record the measured commit in the #862 receipt Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 --- experiments/862-policy-year-rule-receipts.md | 2 +- 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+), 1 deletion(-) diff --git a/experiments/862-policy-year-rule-receipts.md b/experiments/862-policy-year-rule-receipts.md index c31c30075..55d99e2ee 100644 --- a/experiments/862-policy-year-rule-receipts.md +++ b/experiments/862-policy-year-rule-receipts.md @@ -21,7 +21,7 @@ calibration run remains available as a follow-up. | frame | 34,966 persons, 68,251,110 weighted, `time_period` `2024` on both sides | | engine | policyengine-uk 2.92.1, policyengine-core 3.31.0 | | before | `main` `c1b83241` | -| after | this branch (`uk-policy-year-rule-862`; head recorded in the PR) | +| after | this branch at `b1839a58` (`uk-policy-year-rule-862`, the implementation commit); the run was repeated on the committed tree and reproduced every figure below | | runtime | about 24 s per side, 2026-09-07 | ## Disability categories (records, weighted persons): identical before and after From 865ddfcf1c08d6f5be6bdf586678489b50eccaee Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: =?UTF-8?q?Mar=C3=ADa=20Juaristi?= <127882282+juaristi22@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Mon, 7 Sep 2026 14:55:24 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 3/6] Resolve DWP rates inside the SPI disability refresh The engine-free CI lane (fast, spine-uk) failed two SPI spine tests: impute_uk_spi_income_support resolved the DWP rates through the engine before calling the refresh those tests stub to identity. The refresh now resolves the rates itself, at the FRS disability stage's declared year rule, when none are injected, so an injected-rates unit test stays engine-free and the identity stubs bypass the engine as before. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 --- .../microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_income.py | 36 ++++++++++++------- .../tests/test_uk_spi_spine.py | 6 ++-- 2 files changed, 26 insertions(+), 16 deletions(-) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_income.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_income.py index cc5b0dbf3..485d72d1d 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_income.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_income.py @@ -13,6 +13,10 @@ import pandas as pd from microcosm.build.gates import FitWeightRecord +from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.frs_disability import ( + UKDWPDisabilityCategoryRates, + UKDWPDisabilityFlagRates, +) from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.frs_hmrc_leaves import ( FRS_HMRC_INCPBEN_COLUMN, FRS_HMRC_OSSBEN_IDENTIFIABLE_SUBSET_COLUMN, @@ -651,16 +655,7 @@ def impute_uk_spi_income_support( ) person.loc[spi_people, "savings_interest_income"] = taxable_interest_draw + tax_free person = derive_hmrc_income_auxiliaries(person, row_mask=spi_people) - from microcosm.build.uk_runtime import frs_disability - from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.frs_release import resolve_uk_year_rule - - year = resolve_uk_year_rule(frs_disability.YEAR_RULE) - person = _refresh_disability_derived_inputs( - person, - spi_people=spi_people, - category_rates=frs_disability.uk_dwp_disability_category_rates(year), - flag_rates=frs_disability.uk_dwp_disability_flag_rates(year), - ) + person = _refresh_disability_derived_inputs(person, spi_people=spi_people) return UKSPIIncomeImputationResult( person=person, fit_weight_records=( @@ -1268,13 +1263,28 @@ def _refresh_disability_derived_inputs( person: pd.DataFrame, *, spi_people: pd.Series, - category_rates, - flag_rates, + category_rates: UKDWPDisabilityCategoryRates | None = None, + flag_rates: UKDWPDisabilityFlagRates | None = None, ) -> pd.DataFrame: - """Keep category/flag inputs coherent with stage-2 reported amounts.""" + """Keep category/flag inputs coherent with stage-2 reported amounts. + + Re-derives the eight disability columns for the SPI-redrawn rows with the + FRS stage's own derivation and, unless rates are injected, the FRS stage's + declared year rule, so the two paths cannot disagree on the parameter + tree or the week constant (uk-data#475, uk-data#476). The engine is only + touched when rates are not supplied. + """ from microcosm.build.uk_runtime import frs_disability + if category_rates is None or flag_rates is None: + from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.frs_release import resolve_uk_year_rule + + year = resolve_uk_year_rule(frs_disability.YEAR_RULE) + if category_rates is None: + category_rates = frs_disability.uk_dwp_disability_category_rates(year) + if flag_rates is None: + flag_rates = frs_disability.uk_dwp_disability_flag_rates(year) derived = frs_disability.derive_frs_disability( person.loc[spi_people], category_rates=category_rates, diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_spi_spine.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_spi_spine.py index 632af2652..8eede42fa 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_spi_spine.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_spi_spine.py @@ -402,7 +402,7 @@ def test_spi_income_zero_initializes_frs_charity_and_redraws_dividends_after_sta monkeypatch.setattr( spi_income, "_refresh_disability_derived_inputs", - lambda person, *, spi_people, category_rates, flag_rates: person, + lambda person, *, spi_people, category_rates=None, flag_rates=None: person, ) support = build_uk_spi_support_channel( person=_base_frame().table("person"), @@ -464,7 +464,7 @@ def test_reviewed_absent_incapacity_signal_raises(tmp_path: Path) -> None: monkeypatch.setattr( spi_income, "_refresh_disability_derived_inputs", - lambda person, *, spi_people, category_rates, flag_rates: person, + lambda person, *, spi_people, category_rates=None, flag_rates=None: person, ) support = build_uk_spi_support_channel( person=_base_frame() @@ -532,7 +532,7 @@ def test_spi_spine_parsed_inputs_match_the_path_resolution( monkeypatch.setattr( spi_income, "_refresh_disability_derived_inputs", - lambda person, *, spi_people, category_rates, flag_rates: person, + lambda person, *, spi_people, category_rates=None, flag_rates=None: person, ) # This test checks parsed/path source resolution, independently of the engine. From f768e8ce8ca1e93656ab424181973ff7ff8f238d Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: =?UTF-8?q?Mar=C3=ADa=20Juaristi?= <127882282+juaristi22@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Mon, 7 Sep 2026 16:13:35 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 4/6] Regenerate the UK locks after rebasing on main Rebased onto main 5ab1b056 (#874 childcare/TFC and #849 landed). The three generated locks that conflicted are regenerated on the combined tree: the coverage manifest's source-manifest sha, the uk spec digest pin, and the graph parity fixture. The stage-level receipt was repeated on the rebased tree with policyengine-uk 2.94.0 and reproduced every figure; the receipt records both engine versions and the rebased implementation commit. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 --- experiments/862-policy-year-rule-receipts.md | 4 ++-- 1 file changed, 2 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-) diff --git a/experiments/862-policy-year-rule-receipts.md b/experiments/862-policy-year-rule-receipts.md index 55d99e2ee..02d437772 100644 --- a/experiments/862-policy-year-rule-receipts.md +++ b/experiments/862-policy-year-rule-receipts.md @@ -19,9 +19,9 @@ calibration run remains available as a follow-up. | release | `frs_2024_25` (`uk/frs_release.json`: survey 2024, base 2024, calibration 2025) | | tabs | UKDS SN 9563 tab zip sha256 `05dd0069587dbd25e5719d355ce05fc0827d5edd58c24ece9ab85acd954a9aeb`, hash-checked per tab by `frs_spine._read_pinned_tab` | | frame | 34,966 persons, 68,251,110 weighted, `time_period` `2024` on both sides | -| engine | policyengine-uk 2.92.1, policyengine-core 3.31.0 | +| engine | policyengine-uk 2.92.1 (first run) and 2.94.0 (run repeated after rebasing on `main` 5ab1b056), policyengine-core 3.31.0; every figure identical on both | | before | `main` `c1b83241` | -| after | this branch at `b1839a58` (`uk-policy-year-rule-862`, the implementation commit); the run was repeated on the committed tree and reproduced every figure below | +| after | this branch (`uk-policy-year-rule-862`, implementation commit 7119f220 after the rebase on `main` 5ab1b056); the run was repeated on the rebased tree and reproduced every figure below | | runtime | about 24 s per side, 2026-09-07 | ## Disability categories (records, weighted persons): identical before and after From 8ff697cbc3c2b17506c0b5169a6a934eded13e1e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: =?UTF-8?q?Mar=C3=ADa=20Juaristi?= <127882282+juaristi22@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2026 13:15:36 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 5/6] Address Vahid's review of #881 Should-fixes: - An engine-free test stamps a frame 2023 and asserts both disability readers still receive 2024, so the resolver, not the frame period, chooses the year (the two coincide on the current release). - ruff format on the three test files this PR had drifted; the two runtime files it flags were already drifted on main and stay as they are. Questions and nits with code: - The generic manifest materializer honours a declared year_rule over the runtime period and refuses an unknown rule, with tests, so a future declaration can no longer be silently ignored. - The relabel-versus-uprating claim moves from an assertion to a measurement: on the licensed frame the three DSA eligibility booleans are identical on every person under the adapter's relabel and under uk-data's uprated path (11 jointly eligible either way); the receipt records it and the docstring cites it. - student_loans resolves its fallback year through the resolver. - The grant stage's pre-2025 branch honours an injected policy again. - The receipt names the commit it was repeated at and explains the education_grants residual level difference against uk-data#480. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 --- experiments/862-policy-year-rule-receipts.md | 25 +++++++++- .../build/uk_runtime/frs_education_grants.py | 12 +++-- .../build/uk_runtime/source_runtime.py | 12 ++++- .../build/uk_runtime/student_loans.py | 4 +- .../tests/test_uk_frs_disability.py | 48 +++++++++++++++++++ .../tests/test_uk_frs_education_grants.py | 8 +--- .../tests/test_uk_signed_differences.py | 4 +- .../tests/test_uk_source_runtime.py | 48 +++++++++++++++++++ .../tests/test_uk_source_stages.py | 6 +-- 9 files changed, 145 insertions(+), 22 deletions(-) diff --git a/experiments/862-policy-year-rule-receipts.md b/experiments/862-policy-year-rule-receipts.md index 02d437772..ddd9ce7f9 100644 --- a/experiments/862-policy-year-rule-receipts.md +++ b/experiments/862-policy-year-rule-receipts.md @@ -21,7 +21,7 @@ calibration run remains available as a follow-up. | frame | 34,966 persons, 68,251,110 weighted, `time_period` `2024` on both sides | | engine | policyengine-uk 2.92.1 (first run) and 2.94.0 (run repeated after rebasing on `main` 5ab1b056), policyengine-core 3.31.0; every figure identical on both | | before | `main` `c1b83241` | -| after | this branch (`uk-policy-year-rule-862`, implementation commit 7119f220 after the rebase on `main` 5ab1b056); the run was repeated on the rebased tree and reproduced every figure below | +| after | this branch (`uk-policy-year-rule-862`, implementation commit 7119f220 after the rebase on `main` 5ab1b056); the run was repeated at 2b70714c (the rebased tree) and reproduced every figure below. Later commits on the branch touch the SPI refresh, tests, locks and the student-loan stage, none of the seven stages measured here | | runtime | about 24 s per side, 2026-09-07 | ## Disability categories (records, weighted persons): identical before and after @@ -73,6 +73,27 @@ Reading: the DSA capacity is evaluated at the release calibration year (2025) wi three eligibility booleans materialised at that year on the 2024 frame, so the seed opens to one record whose full reported grant moves out of the residual (delta GBP 83,772,000 on both lines). uk-data#480's receipt on the same tabs found the same thin seed (1 record, -4.7k weighted, GBP 83.8m). The pinned enhanced-FRS parity reference still lists the column +4.7k weighted, GBP 83.8m). The `education_grants` residual level differs from the +incumbent's (GBP 2,802.5m before its fix) because the two grant splits differ +upstream of DSA; the delta is what this change owns and it matches. The pinned enhanced-FRS parity reference still lists the column as zero-share, so the register signs it as a candidate-only column (`dsa-eligible-expenses-seeded-at-calibration-year`) rather than re-minting the reference. + +## Relabel versus uprating for the DSA eligibility booleans + +uk-data evaluates the DSA seed with `sim.calculate(variable, policy_year)` on a +2024-stamped dataset, which policyengine-uk uprates on load; microcosm's engine +adapter builds a `UKSingleYearDataset(fiscal_year=2025)` from the 2024 tables, a +relabel with no uprating. Measured on the same licensed frame after +`frs_legacy_proxies` (34,966 persons, policyengine-uk 2.94.0), the three booleans +are identical under both paths on every person, and identical at 2024: + +| variable | true, relabel at 2025 | true, uprated to 2025 | true, at 2024 | rows differing | +|---|---|---|---|---| +| maintenance_loan_in_england_system | 25,326 | 25,326 | 25,326 | 0 | +| disabled_students_allowance_course_eligible | 683 | 683 | 683 | 0 | +| disabled_students_allowance_has_qualifying_condition | 3,729 | 3,729 | 3,729 | 0 | +| all three (eligible) | 11 | 11 | 11 | 0 | + +The seed is therefore invariant to the relabel; the 11 eligible people carry one +reported grant record between them, which is the single DSA row above. diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_education_grants.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_education_grants.py index 0e053ae32..19a7bffcc 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_education_grants.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/frs_education_grants.py @@ -53,10 +53,12 @@ class UKDSAPolicy: class UKFRSEducationGrantSplitStageTransform: """Whole-stage callable for FRS education grant splitting. - ``PolicyEngineUKEngine.materialize`` labels the 2024 input tables as a - ``fiscal_year=2025`` dataset rather than uprating them. The three DSA - eligibility variables are non-monetary booleans, so this calibration-year - seed cannot differ from an uprated evaluation. + ``PolicyEngineUKEngine.materialize`` labels the survey-year tables as a + calibration-year dataset rather than uprating them, where uk-data lets + the engine uprate the survey-year dataset and calculates at the policy + year. The three DSA eligibility variables are non-monetary booleans; + the licensed receipt for #862 measured them identical under both paths + on every person (experiments/862-policy-year-rule-receipts.md). """ def __init__( @@ -90,7 +92,7 @@ def __call__(self, frame: Frame) -> Frame: ) policy = self.policy or uk_dsa_policy(policy_year) else: - policy = UKDSAPolicy( + policy = self.policy or UKDSAPolicy( maximum=0.0, instant=f"{policy_year}-01-01", source="pre-2025 DSA not modelled", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/source_runtime.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/source_runtime.py index 92f097bba..c36abf6cb 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/source_runtime.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/source_runtime.py @@ -13,6 +13,7 @@ SourceRuntimeContext, SourceRuntimeError, ) +from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.frs_release import resolve_uk_year_rule from microcosm.frame import Frame from microcosm.frame.rules import materialize_rules_engine_predictors @@ -144,7 +145,16 @@ def materialize_uk_rules_engine_predictors_from_manifest( frame = _extra(context, "frame", Frame) engine = _extra(context, "rules_engine", object) country = _require_uk_country(context) - period = context.config.extra.get("period", context.config.target_year) + year_rule = operation.parameters.get("year_rule") + if year_rule is not None: + # A declared rule names the release year the predictors are evaluated + # at and wins over the runtime period (#862). + try: + period = resolve_uk_year_rule(year_rule) + except ValueError as error: + raise SourceRuntimeError(str(error)) from error + else: + period = context.config.extra.get("period", context.config.target_year) if period is None: raise SourceRuntimeError( "materialize_rules_engine_predictors requires a period in the " diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/student_loans.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/student_loans.py index 6460c194e..6d2bd34d5 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/student_loans.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/student_loans.py @@ -16,7 +16,7 @@ from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.cgt_structure import ( _assert_closed_world_operations, ) -from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.frs_release import load_uk_frs_release +from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.frs_release import resolve_uk_year_rule from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.national_frame import ( uk_household_weight_kind, uk_national_frame, @@ -120,7 +120,7 @@ def __call__(self, frame: Frame) -> Frame: year = ( self.calibration_year if self.calibration_year is not None - else load_uk_frs_release().calibration_year + else resolve_uk_year_rule(YEAR_RULE) ) _assert_student_loans_stage_parameters(self.stage, stocks=resource, year=year) result = assign_student_loan_plans(frame, stocks=resource, year=year) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_frs_disability.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_frs_disability.py index 22c712a30..268c68701 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_frs_disability.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_frs_disability.py @@ -126,3 +126,51 @@ def test_disability_stage_rejects_year_rule_drift(operation_index: int) -> None: _assert_frs_disability_stage_parameters( replace(stage, operations=tuple(operations)) ) + + +def test_disability_stage_resolves_the_survey_year_not_the_frame_period( + monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch, +) -> None: + # Survey year and frame period are both 2024 on the current release, so a + # frame stamped 2023 is the only way to see which one picks the rates. + from microcosm.build.uk_runtime import frs_disability + from microcosm.build.uk_runtime.national_frame import ( + uk_national_frame, + uk_time_period, + ) + + stage = load_country_spec("uk").sources.stage_map()["frs_disability"] + frame = uk_national_frame( + person=pd.DataFrame( + { + "person_id": [1], + "person_benunit_id": [1], + "person_household_id": [1], + "attendance_allowance_reported": [20 * WEEKS_IN_YEAR], + } + ), + benunit=pd.DataFrame({"benunit_id": [1]}), + household=pd.DataFrame({"household_id": [1]}), + time_period="2023", + household_weights=[1.0], + ) + years: list[int] = [] + + def _category_reader(year: int) -> UKDWPDisabilityCategoryRates: + years.append(year) + return _category_rates() + + def _flag_reader(year: int) -> UKDWPDisabilityFlagRates: + years.append(year) + return _flags() + + monkeypatch.setattr( + frs_disability, "uk_dwp_disability_category_rates", _category_reader + ) + monkeypatch.setattr(frs_disability, "uk_dwp_disability_flag_rates", _flag_reader) + + result = frs_disability.UKFRSDisabilityStageTransform(stage=stage)(frame) + + assert years == [2024, 2024] + assert uk_time_period(result) == "2023" + assert result.table("person")["aa_category"].tolist() == ["HIGHER"] diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_frs_education_grants.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_frs_education_grants.py index 511c4404a..7375b0a2b 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_frs_education_grants.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_frs_education_grants.py @@ -79,9 +79,7 @@ def test_2025_dsa_capacity_seeds_maximum_for_fully_eligible_people() -> None: def test_transform_materializes_survey_and_calibration_years( monkeypatch: pytest.MonkeyPatch, ) -> None: - stage = load_country_spec("uk").sources.stage_map()[ - "frs_education_grant_split" - ] + stage = load_country_spec("uk").sources.stage_map()["frs_education_grant_split"] frame = uk_national_frame( person=pd.DataFrame( { @@ -137,9 +135,7 @@ def _policy(policy_year: int) -> UKDSAPolicy: @pytest.mark.parametrize("operation_index", [0, 1, 2]) def test_grant_stage_rejects_year_rule_drift(operation_index: int) -> None: - stage = load_country_spec("uk").sources.stage_map()[ - "frs_education_grant_split" - ] + stage = load_country_spec("uk").sources.stage_map()["frs_education_grant_split"] operations = list(stage.operations) operation = operations[operation_index] operations[operation_index] = SourceOperationSpec( diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_signed_differences.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_signed_differences.py index 34d31d92e..0e646cd13 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_signed_differences.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_signed_differences.py @@ -171,9 +171,7 @@ def test_dsa_entry_pins_calibration_year_seed(self) -> None: assert entry.difference_class == "defect_fix" assert entry.quantitative == { "structural": { - "expected_columns": [ - "disabled_students_allowance_eligible_expenses" - ] + "expected_columns": ["disabled_students_allowance_eligible_expenses"] } } diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_source_runtime.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_source_runtime.py index 7bae6abf3..9aa93d945 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_source_runtime.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_source_runtime.py @@ -183,3 +183,51 @@ def test_materialize_rules_engine_predictors_refuses_non_uk_context() -> None: _operation(), _context(engine=StubRulesEngine(), country="us"), ) + + +class _PeriodRecordingEngine(StubRulesEngine): + def __init__(self) -> None: + super().__init__() + self.periods: list[int | str] = [] + + def materialize( + self, + bundle: Frame, + variables: Sequence[str], + period: int | str, + ) -> Mapping[str, np.ndarray]: + self.periods.append(period) + return {"projected_income": self._values} + + +def test_materialize_rules_engine_predictors_honours_a_declared_year_rule() -> None: + # The context says 2023; the declared rule names the release calibration + # year, and the declaration wins (#862). + handler = uk_source_operation_handlers()["materialize_rules_engine_predictors"] + engine = _PeriodRecordingEngine() + operation = SourceOperationSpec.from_mapping( + { + "kind": "materialize_rules_engine_predictors", + "predictors": ["projected_income"], + "year_rule": "calibration_year", + } + ) + + result = handler(None, operation, _context(engine=engine)) + + assert engine.periods == [2025] + assert result.table("person")["projected_income"].tolist() == [12.0, 34.0] + + +def test_materialize_rules_engine_predictors_refuses_an_unknown_year_rule() -> None: + handler = uk_source_operation_handlers()["materialize_rules_engine_predictors"] + operation = SourceOperationSpec.from_mapping( + { + "kind": "materialize_rules_engine_predictors", + "predictors": ["projected_income"], + "year_rule": "frame_period", + } + ) + + with pytest.raises(SourceRuntimeError, match="Unknown UK year_rule"): + handler(None, operation, _context(engine=_PeriodRecordingEngine())) diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_source_stages.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_source_stages.py index 2d435d4f4..56786b7fe 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_source_stages.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_uk_source_stages.py @@ -757,9 +757,9 @@ def test_engine_predictor_and_rewrite_constants_match_manifest(self) -> None: grant_predictors = ( stages["frs_education_grant_split"].operations[0].parameters["predictors"] ) - dsa_predictors = stages["frs_education_grant_split"].operations[1].parameters[ - "predictors" - ] + dsa_predictors = ( + stages["frs_education_grant_split"].operations[1].parameters["predictors"] + ) assert tuple(legacy_predictors) == UK_LEGACY_PROXY_PREDICTORS assert tuple(grant_predictors) == UK_EDUCATION_GRANT_CAPACITY_PREDICTORS assert tuple(dsa_predictors) == ( From cbadfa818f60491a0a197a63ef66360e8084d319 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: =?UTF-8?q?Mar=C3=ADa=20Juaristi?= <127882282+juaristi22@users.noreply.github.com> Date: Tue, 8 Sep 2026 15:05:58 +0200 Subject: [PATCH 6/6] Regenerate the UK locks after rebasing on main (#879, #870 landed) Rebased onto main e07a4735. The three generated locks that conflicted are regenerated on the combined tree: the coverage manifest's source-manifest sha, the uk spec digest pin, and the graph parity fixture. One semantic merge with #879: it re-uses build_period on impute_uk_spi_income_support to rebase SPI incomes and adds a cached uprating-factor helper, while this branch had dropped that parameter and the functools.cache import on the premise that the disability refresh was their only consumer. Git merged both without a textual conflict and left the module unimportable; the parameter, the call-site argument and the import are restored. The disability refresh itself still takes its year from the declared rule, not from build_period. The stage-level receipt was repeated on the rebased tree and reproduced every figure; its commit rows are updated. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5.1 --- experiments/862-policy-year-rule-receipts.md | 4 +-- .../uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json | 26 +++++++++---------- .../microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_income.py | 2 ++ .../microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_spine.py | 1 + .../tests/test_spec_engine_country_bundles.py | 2 +- .../fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json | 2 +- 6 files changed, 20 insertions(+), 17 deletions(-) diff --git a/experiments/862-policy-year-rule-receipts.md b/experiments/862-policy-year-rule-receipts.md index ddd9ce7f9..7823a7b25 100644 --- a/experiments/862-policy-year-rule-receipts.md +++ b/experiments/862-policy-year-rule-receipts.md @@ -19,9 +19,9 @@ calibration run remains available as a follow-up. | release | `frs_2024_25` (`uk/frs_release.json`: survey 2024, base 2024, calibration 2025) | | tabs | UKDS SN 9563 tab zip sha256 `05dd0069587dbd25e5719d355ce05fc0827d5edd58c24ece9ab85acd954a9aeb`, hash-checked per tab by `frs_spine._read_pinned_tab` | | frame | 34,966 persons, 68,251,110 weighted, `time_period` `2024` on both sides | -| engine | policyengine-uk 2.92.1 (first run) and 2.94.0 (run repeated after rebasing on `main` 5ab1b056), policyengine-core 3.31.0; every figure identical on both | +| engine | policyengine-uk 2.92.1 (first run) and 2.94.0 (runs repeated after each rebase on `main`), policyengine-core 3.31.0; every figure identical on both | | before | `main` `c1b83241` | -| after | this branch (`uk-policy-year-rule-862`, implementation commit 7119f220 after the rebase on `main` 5ab1b056); the run was repeated at 2b70714c (the rebased tree) and reproduced every figure below. Later commits on the branch touch the SPI refresh, tests, locks and the student-loan stage, none of the seven stages measured here | +| after | this branch (`uk-policy-year-rule-862`, implementation commit 47d778c8 after the rebase on `main` e07a4735, which carries #874, #879 and #870); the run was repeated at 8ff697cb and reproduced every figure below. Later commits on the branch touch the SPI refresh seam, tests and locks, none of the seven stages measured here | | runtime | about 24 s per side, 2026-09-07 | ## Disability categories (records, weighted persons): identical before and after diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json index 328752985..df64a4aea 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/release_input_coverage_manifest.json @@ -473,7 +473,7 @@ "capital_gains" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "e07d148799b5025179038c710634c539a25d979c6b8bdd377eda3f4a6543ad22", + "source_manifest_sha256": "d83310aa9ebb309b4a9c6409a35916cc49390e330827cce8d7321c613679cd84", "source_vintages": { "source": "HMRC Capital Gains Tax statistics, July 2025, Table 2.1a", "survey": "HMRC Capital Gains Tax statistics Table 2.1a and Advani-Summers capital-gains incidence" @@ -496,7 +496,7 @@ "capital_gains" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "e07d148799b5025179038c710634c539a25d979c6b8bdd377eda3f4a6543ad22", + "source_manifest_sha256": "d83310aa9ebb309b4a9c6409a35916cc49390e330827cce8d7321c613679cd84", "source_vintages": { "source": "Advani and Summers (2020), Capital Gains and UK Inequality, CAGE Working Paper 465", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25, SPI synthetic support, and Advani-Summers capital-gains incidence" @@ -525,7 +525,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "E5 source-stage transform preserves household rows and typed household weights; total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "e07d148799b5025179038c710634c539a25d979c6b8bdd377eda3f4a6543ad22", + "source_manifest_sha256": "d83310aa9ebb309b4a9c6409a35916cc49390e330827cce8d7321c613679cd84", "source_vintages": { "source": "UK Data Service SN 8856 Effects of Taxes and Benefits household tab, DfT rail fare index, and public NHS activity/cost table.", "survey": "Effects of Taxes and Benefits 1977-2024 and NHS age-gender public table" @@ -545,7 +545,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "E5 source-stage transform preserves household rows and typed household weights; total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "e07d148799b5025179038c710634c539a25d979c6b8bdd377eda3f4a6543ad22", + "source_manifest_sha256": "d83310aa9ebb309b4a9c6409a35916cc49390e330827cce8d7321c613679cd84", "source_vintages": { "source": "UK Data Service SN 8856 Effects of Taxes and Benefits household tab and cited VAT anchor resource.", "survey": "Effects of Taxes and Benefits 1977-2024" @@ -576,7 +576,7 @@ "superseded_by": { "reason": "The FRS spine build executes hmrc_cgt_gains_spine, which applies the same HMRC Table 3 amounts redraw directly in source_stages.json before calibration.", "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "e07d148799b5025179038c710634c539a25d979c6b8bdd377eda3f4a6543ad22", + "source_manifest_sha256": "d83310aa9ebb309b4a9c6409a35916cc49390e330827cce8d7321c613679cd84", "stage": "hmrc_cgt_gains_spine" } }, @@ -596,7 +596,7 @@ "capital_gains" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "e07d148799b5025179038c710634c539a25d979c6b8bdd377eda3f4a6543ad22", + "source_manifest_sha256": "d83310aa9ebb309b4a9c6409a35916cc49390e330827cce8d7321c613679cd84", "source_vintages": { "hmrc_surface": "2023-24", "mapped_build_period": "2024" @@ -610,7 +610,7 @@ "base_candidate_tier": "frs", "calibration_permitted": false, "canonical_source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "canonical_source_manifest_sha256": "e07d148799b5025179038c710634c539a25d979c6b8bdd377eda3f4a6543ad22", + "canonical_source_manifest_sha256": "d83310aa9ebb309b4a9c6409a35916cc49390e330827cce8d7321c613679cd84", "effective_mass_requirements": { "charitable_investment_gifts": { "mass_share_denominator": "all_person_effective_mass", @@ -693,7 +693,7 @@ "superseded_by": { "reason": "The FRS spine build executes hmrc_spi_income_spine, which supersedes the June retained-leaves/hmrc_spi_income pair inside source_stages.json.", "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "e07d148799b5025179038c710634c539a25d979c6b8bdd377eda3f4a6543ad22", + "source_manifest_sha256": "d83310aa9ebb309b4a9c6409a35916cc49390e330827cce8d7321c613679cd84", "stage": "hmrc_spi_income_spine" } }, @@ -727,7 +727,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "E5 source-stage transform preserves household rows and typed household weights; total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "e07d148799b5025179038c710634c539a25d979c6b8bdd377eda3f4a6543ad22", + "source_manifest_sha256": "d83310aa9ebb309b4a9c6409a35916cc49390e330827cce8d7321c613679cd84", "source_vintages": { "source": "UK Data Service SN 9468 Living Costs and Food Survey 2023-24 household/person tabs, NEED 2023 headline energy tables, Ofgem Q2 2026 unit rates, and WAS round-8 bridge donor.", "survey": "Living Costs and Food Survey 2023-24" @@ -748,7 +748,7 @@ "property_wealth" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "e07d148799b5025179038c710634c539a25d979c6b8bdd377eda3f4a6543ad22", + "source_manifest_sha256": "d83310aa9ebb309b4a9c6409a35916cc49390e330827cce8d7321c613679cd84", "source_vintages": { "source": "MHCLG dwellings and ONS UK House Price Index December 2025 regional average prices.", "survey": "Public regional property reference" @@ -772,7 +772,7 @@ "employee_pension_contributions" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "e07d148799b5025179038c710634c539a25d979c6b8bdd377eda3f4a6543ad22", + "source_manifest_sha256": "d83310aa9ebb309b4a9c6409a35916cc49390e330827cce8d7321c613679cd84", "source_vintages": { "source": "HMRC, Salary sacrifice reform for pension contributions effective from 6 April 2029", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25 salary-sacrifice respondents and HMRC salary-sacrifice reform analysis" @@ -794,7 +794,7 @@ "student_loan_plan" ], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "e07d148799b5025179038c710634c539a25d979c6b8bdd377eda3f4a6543ad22", + "source_manifest_sha256": "d83310aa9ebb309b4a9c6409a35916cc49390e330827cce8d7321c613679cd84", "source_vintages": { "source": "Explore Education Statistics Table 6a, Higher education total", "survey": "Family Resources Survey 2024-25 and Student Loans Company borrower forecasts for England" @@ -829,7 +829,7 @@ "required_mass_change_reason": "E5 source-stage transform preserves household rows and typed household weights; total household mass is conserved.", "rewrites": [], "source_manifest": "source_stages.json", - "source_manifest_sha256": "e07d148799b5025179038c710634c539a25d979c6b8bdd377eda3f4a6543ad22", + "source_manifest_sha256": "d83310aa9ebb309b4a9c6409a35916cc49390e330827cce8d7321c613679cd84", "source_vintages": { "source": "Office for National Statistics Wealth and Assets Survey, UK Data Service SN 7215, DOI 10.5255/UKDA-SN-7215-20; local licensed 2006-22 household tab.", "survey": "Wealth and Assets Survey round 8" diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_income.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_income.py index 485d72d1d..dc06ec036 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_income.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_income.py @@ -5,6 +5,7 @@ import hashlib from collections.abc import Mapping, Sequence from dataclasses import dataclass +from functools import cache from importlib import import_module from pathlib import Path from typing import Any @@ -369,6 +370,7 @@ def impute_uk_spi_income_support( seed: int = 42, n_estimators: int = 100, donor_sample_size: int | None = DEFAULT_SPI_DONOR_SAMPLE_SIZE, + build_period: int | str = 2023, verified_donor: VerifiedSPIDonorIdentity | None = None, donor_table: pd.DataFrame | None = None, initialize_frs_channel_columns: Mapping[str, float] | None = None, diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_spine.py b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_spine.py index b023ab85f..fb3ee169e 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_spine.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk_runtime/spi_spine.py @@ -529,6 +529,7 @@ def __call__(self, frame: Frame) -> Frame: seed=self.seed, n_estimators=self.qrf_estimators, donor_sample_size=self.donor_sample_size, + build_period=uk_time_period(frame), verified_donor=donor_identity, donor_table=self.donor_table, initialize_frs_channel_columns=stage1_op.parameters[ diff --git a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_spec_engine_country_bundles.py b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_spec_engine_country_bundles.py index c10b6fff9..9f1fda9cf 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_spec_engine_country_bundles.py +++ b/packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_spec_engine_country_bundles.py @@ -55,7 +55,7 @@ ), ( "uk", - "e0dd9175920f6d1368a74957367182dc4d6357ffbdb1f728457ead91dd16dd9b", + "8cddc822e7d1207e8f36da4883cdeaa8bc5e93a27b1b134bb6b1f33cf976e45d", { "benunit.benunit_id", "household.household_id", diff --git a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json index 9c9076ede..c194f56a8 100644 --- a/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json +++ b/packages/microcosm-graph/tests/fixtures/parity/uk_spine/uk_spine.json @@ -1 +1 @@ -{"country":"uk","nodes":[{"base":null,"citation":"","description":"Load the source-bound UK FRS root population.","id":"create_uk_frs","inputs":[],"kernel":"uk.create@1","mass":"conserve","outputs":[{"column":"age","dtype":"int64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"gender","dtype":"string","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"marital_status","dtype":"string","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"hours_worked","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"is_household_head","dtype":"bool","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"is_benunit_head","dtype":"bool","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"is_parent","dtype":"bool","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"employment_income","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"self_employment_income","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"private_pension_income","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"tax_free_savings_income","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"savings_interest_income","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"dividend_income","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"property_income","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"maintenance_income","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"miscellaneous_income","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"private_transfer_income","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"lump_sum_income","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"student_loan_repayments","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"statutory_sick_pay","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"statutory_maternity_pay","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"student_loans","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"access_fund","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"education_grants","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"healthy_start_vouchers","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"free_school_breakfasts","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"free_school_fruit_veg","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"free_school_meals","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"council_tax_benefit_reported","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"maintenance_expenses","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"childcare_expenses","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"personal_pension_contributions","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"employee_pension_contributions","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"pension_contributions_via_salary_sacrifice","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"salary_sacrifice_reported","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"salary_sacrifice_asked","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"child_benefit_reported","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"income_support_reported","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"housing_benefit_reported","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"attendance_allowance_reported","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"dla_sc_reported","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"dla_m_reported","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"iidb_reported","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"carers_allowance_reported","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"sda_reported","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"afcs_reported","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"produced","rows":"all"},{"column":"ssmg_reported","dtype":"float64","entity":"person","ownership":"prod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