diff --git a/.github/workflows/test.yml b/.github/workflows/test.yml index c424c145d..0c721babe 100644 --- a/.github/workflows/test.yml +++ b/.github/workflows/test.yml @@ -6,6 +6,11 @@ on: pull_request: branches: [main] +# Cancel outdated PR runs; give each main push its own independent group. +concurrency: + group: ${{ github.workflow }}-${{ github.event_name }}-${{ github.event.pull_request.number || github.run_id }} + cancel-in-progress: ${{ github.event_name == 'pull_request' }} + jobs: changes: runs-on: ubuntu-latest diff --git a/CLAUDE.md b/CLAUDE.md index ce1b71c3e..7dabb93f3 100644 --- a/CLAUDE.md +++ b/CLAUDE.md @@ -39,6 +39,10 @@ shard's real wheel, install into a clean uv-export-constrained venv, assert the wheel/import boundary and spec digests, and run the suite against installed wheels. +New commits to a PR cancel older unfinished CI runs for that same PR. +Each main-push run has a unique concurrency group, so all main-push runs +remain independent and can finish validating their merged changes. + `requires_us` and `requires_uk` are registered pytest markers. Mark new tests that need a live PolicyEngine engine with the appropriate marker; the root collection hook skips them when that engine is absent, and the marker also @@ -80,6 +84,22 @@ build recorded staging telemetry that never reached its repo publishes without the flag. Never publish or promote artifacts as a side effect of another task. +The US native-SPM-role source-enrichment lane is a separate release type: +`tools/build_us_spm_role_enrichment.py` creates a local candidate from the exact +reviewed BuildP parent, preserving original variables and inherited schema-5 +calibration evidence. It does not run calibration or relax schema 6 for ordinary +releases. `microcosm.data.source_enrichment` validates candidates and records +actual native-loader compatibility in a separate bundle. The regular publisher +requires `--parent-h5` and the four tested country/Core/wrapper/calculator wheels; `--preflight-only` +runs the same contract and local publisher preparation (file paths, artifact +hashes, revision/tag pins and latest-pointer eligibility), without constructing +a Hub client or publishing. Supplying `--parent-h5` or `--compatibility-wheel` +for a release that is not a source enrichment is an error, including preflight +and evidence-tier requests. See +[the source-enrichment runbook](docs/us-native-spm-role-source-enrichment.md). +Root's canonical-model acceptance and publication authorization remain separate +from this producer-native-input receipt. + A US release or release-gate preflight that receives a multispine pool through `--base-h5` must authenticate its sibling terminal manifest. A current stacked pool whose terminal battery is red remains fail-closed unless the operator @@ -106,3 +126,9 @@ with the journal pointing to them. Update this guide in the same PR whenever the workspace layout, test commands, or release flow change. If you find it contradicting the repo, trust the repo and fix this file. + +UK size experiments use `tools/build_uk_rowwise_candidate.py --dataset-households` +with the same pool inputs as the dense candidate. The flag changes exported +support, not clone K. Sizes remain candidate-only until their matched comparison +and promotion scorecard are adjudicated; see +[the size plan](docs/uk-dataset-size-plan-355.md). diff --git a/DESIGN.md b/DESIGN.md index 7dd1f921f..fb6a9cf2f 100644 --- a/DESIGN.md +++ b/DESIGN.md @@ -133,6 +133,9 @@ assembled/transferred/simulated stage boundaries bind the stack manifest, fraction, seed, realized counts, and clone controls, so a smaller rung or a different draw cannot reuse another build's evidence. +Every bound UK local calibration family compiles from the sha-pinned Chronicle +consumer feed; geography ladders assign rows and provide diagnostics only. + After gap-fill, one PUF QRF pass and the clone-2 capital-gains-tail operator run over both survey origins. Publication is terminally gated by complete declared-input coverage and a live-digested, explicit per-column by-origin diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 964fb2cdb..12c9c1bde 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -111,6 +111,12 @@ normal `uv run pytest` suite; the real-H5 mode above is a local/runbook step. ## Releasing & alerts +The [native SPM role source-enrichment lane](docs/us-native-spm-role-source-enrichment.md) +creates a new US H5 from the exact reviewed BuildP parent, preserves its original +variables and schema-5 calibration evidence, and requires fresh country/wrapper +compatibility checks. It has a local candidate builder and uses the regular +publisher's contract with `--parent-h5` and `--preflight-only`. + Standard publication uploads the locally built `releases//` artifacts to the Hugging Face dataset, tags the release, and updates `latest.json`. It runs on the build machine (it needs the freshly built H5), so it isn't a CI step: diff --git a/changelog.d/875-cgt-observation-year.fixed.md b/changelog.d/875-cgt-observation-year.fixed.md new file mode 100644 index 000000000..4803b7929 --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/875-cgt-observation-year.fixed.md @@ -0,0 +1,9 @@ +Measure CGT in FY2024–25 while retaining the 2025 calibration index and 2024 +exported data. Pin individual HMRC gains, taxpayer count and liability facts; +retain the replaced OBR cash forecast as optional diagnostic provenance with +explicit availability. Retire its obsolete fit exemption, preserve its signed +history, update live compile-parity receipts and publish aggregate fit evidence. + +Retain the merged upstream claimant-role graph prerequisite without duplicate +commits. Compose the retired fit exemptions and document that the recorded +national comparison predates main's changed fitting surface and gate disposition. diff --git a/changelog.d/native-spm-role-inventory.fixed.md b/changelog.d/native-spm-role-inventory.fixed.md new file mode 100644 index 000000000..6a3d72590 --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/native-spm-role-inventory.fixed.md @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +Classify the native SPM role source reader and bounded raw HDF enrichment writer +in the existing runtime and serialization inventories, retaining fail-closed +checks for unreviewed modules and writers. diff --git a/changelog.d/native-spm-role-source-enrichment.added.md b/changelog.d/native-spm-role-source-enrichment.added.md new file mode 100644 index 000000000..92eb8e623 --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/native-spm-role-source-enrichment.added.md @@ -0,0 +1,4 @@ +Add a reproducible native SPM role enrichment of the reviewed US BuildP H5, +with exact preservation of existing variables, pinned Census reconstruction, +explicit inherited schema-5 calibration evidence, and replayed country/wrapper +compatibility gates in the release publisher. diff --git a/changelog.d/source-enrichment-publisher-arguments.fixed.md b/changelog.d/source-enrichment-publisher-arguments.fixed.md new file mode 100644 index 000000000..ac83105be --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/source-enrichment-publisher-arguments.fixed.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +Reject enrichment-only publisher arguments for ordinary releases and exercise actual builder manifests through certification and publication. diff --git a/changelog.d/uk-census-households-chronicle-887.changed.md b/changelog.d/uk-census-households-chronicle-887.changed.md new file mode 100644 index 000000000..a1e93a075 --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/uk-census-households-chronicle-887.changed.md @@ -0,0 +1 @@ +Bind UK constituency and local-authority census household targets from the pinned Chronicle feed, and replace Northern Ireland's postcode-inferred constituency mapping with NISRA's published DZ2021-to-PARLCON24 lookup. The NISRA lookup reader declares openpyxl through the `microcosm-build[uk]` extra, and the households-only candidate scope applies the same per-grain A15 factor as the joint scope. diff --git a/changelog.d/uk-dataset-sizes-355.added.md b/changelog.d/uk-dataset-sizes-355.added.md new file mode 100644 index 000000000..eef55e134 --- /dev/null +++ b/changelog.d/uk-dataset-sizes-355.added.md @@ -0,0 +1,6 @@ +Add exact-household-count UK rowwise candidates using contribution-informed L0 initialization, protected target carriers, fixed-size sampling and refitting. Preserve the dense pool doctrine and local gates, export compact linked entities, and record selection provenance without promoting candidates to the certified dense release or changing dataset defaults. +A size run also ships the dense joint solve it was cut from (`dense_reference_diagnostics.csv`, a `dense_reference` summary under `solve.dataset_size`) and the selection itself (`dataset_size_selection.csv`: pool row, design weight, inclusion probability, Horvitz–Thompson baseline, refit weight), and `--selection-seed` re-draws the selection on one pool and one dense reference. The exact-count draw's certainty threshold is a recorded candidate-run knob (`--selection-pi-hi`, default 1), and a refused draw carries the measured gate mass and the feasible alternatives instead of a bare error. +Compose each bound PIPR mean monthly private rent into an annual total using 12 months and the matching A17-uprated private-renter household count, with the inputs and adjudication recorded in the cross-grain receipt. +The size selection's L0 budget search stops only on a probe whose gate probabilities admit the exact-count draw at the requested certainty threshold (`feasible_draw_pi_hi`, verdicts from the new `exact_k_design_feasibility`), recording every probe in the size receipt; a size run checkpoints the dense solve and the search before the draw (`size_selection_checkpoint.{npz,json}`) and `--resume-size-checkpoint` continues at the draw on the re-derived pool after verifying the checkpoint's identity, rebuilding both results through the new `rebuild_calibration_result`. +The UK doctrine solve reports progress through the calibrator's callback seam: a loss line every hundred epochs of the dense solve, each budget probe and the refit, one line per finished probe with its drawability verdict (new `budget_probe` and `budget_search_done` events), and one when the search stops; the candidate driver writes them to stderr. +After review: the checkpoint identity carries the solve doctrine and a resume asserts the restored options against it; a stale checkpoint in `--out` refuses before the solve; `microcosm.calibrate.gates` and `microcosm.calibrate.initialization` join the attested seed-protocol sources and the pre-best-iterate oracle runs with a frozen gate module; the size receipt reports `certainty_share`, `boundary_draws` and `zero_target_rows`; the manifest distinguishes the realized stretch against the refit's reference from the stretch against the pool design. diff --git a/docs/evidence/spec-engine/us-f0-coverage.json b/docs/evidence/spec-engine/us-f0-coverage.json index a8d2d977f..45e73dcbb 100644 --- a/docs/evidence/spec-engine/us-f0-coverage.json +++ b/docs/evidence/spec-engine/us-f0-coverage.json @@ -736,8 +736,8 @@ "legacy_sinks": [], "mode": "compiler_semantic", "pointer_class": "all", - "pointer_count": 824, - "pointer_sha256": "7537385c3fd399a2dbb7dcd8ed7cf1ff2481ed336db621eafcbfd741d5792f40", + "pointer_count": 826, + "pointer_sha256": "7ff2d5d1c2fd8026d17a57244f969dc0e9625a9e47304b693ad15df329041282", "rationale": null, "relative_sink_prefix": null, "source_prefix": "/resolved/seed_protocol", @@ -772,21 +772,21 @@ "verifier": "vintages" } ], - "configuration_field_count": 42154, - "consumed_field_count": 42154, + "configuration_field_count": 42156, + "consumed_field_count": 42156, "generation0_effect_counts": { "legacy_behavior": 38476, - "no_generation0_effect": 3678 + "no_generation0_effect": 3680 }, "mode_counts": { - "compiler_semantic": 27715, + "compiler_semantic": 27717, "front_end_validation": 348, "identity_only": 103, "legacy_behavior": 13988 }, "multiple_primary_use_field_count": 0, - "pointer_inventory_sha256": "3fc6b9480ea81b9635bd0db56e180c2daf32a5cd2006a70d350586c570f96754", - "resolved_binding_field_count": 9770, + "pointer_inventory_sha256": "2c0423a08dc16bf5f142134804a1a6545f887e32ca5c991c856a2f8bcfaea0f0", + "resolved_binding_field_count": 9772, "unused_field_count": 0 }, "inventory_coverage": { @@ -1656,13 +1656,13 @@ "compiler_ir.node_slices" ], "expected": { - "map_sha256": "c94a5af8eb24866156b8cd4b77b93dc497b7df5b025204fe1022f80b1d8446ea", - "protocol_sha256": "1c53f1d9b3e185a41181fbe861f9b08d56c83880710fd1e18d7a4ceb5d6a354e" + "map_sha256": "87ba50531d9fa6683096ecb39a31655b331ab8acff3a5876c2f62b33562a0885", + "protocol_sha256": "fd3e4b06f11be4e8c13ea19fef9469ab95cbbe3e2dcfce351e860dd3e00709e4" }, "failures": [], "observed": { - "map_sha256": "c94a5af8eb24866156b8cd4b77b93dc497b7df5b025204fe1022f80b1d8446ea", - "protocol_sha256": "1c53f1d9b3e185a41181fbe861f9b08d56c83880710fd1e18d7a4ceb5d6a354e" + "map_sha256": "87ba50531d9fa6683096ecb39a31655b331ab8acff3a5876c2f62b33562a0885", + "protocol_sha256": "fd3e4b06f11be4e8c13ea19fef9469ab95cbbe3e2dcfce351e860dd3e00709e4" }, "status": "covered" }, @@ -1677,7 +1677,7 @@ "compiler_ir.seed_stream_map" ], "expected": { - "implementation_sha256": "1c53f1d9b3e185a41181fbe861f9b08d56c83880710fd1e18d7a4ceb5d6a354e", + "implementation_sha256": "fd3e4b06f11be4e8c13ea19fef9469ab95cbbe3e2dcfce351e860dd3e00709e4", "protocol": "legacy-v1", "streams": [ "build_model", @@ -1698,7 +1698,7 @@ }, "failures": [], "observed": { - "implementation_sha256": "1c53f1d9b3e185a41181fbe861f9b08d56c83880710fd1e18d7a4ceb5d6a354e", + "implementation_sha256": "fd3e4b06f11be4e8c13ea19fef9469ab95cbbe3e2dcfce351e860dd3e00709e4", "protocol": "legacy-v1", "streams": [ "build_model", @@ -2599,7 +2599,7 @@ "country": "us", "schema_id": "country_spec", "schema_version": 1, - "spec_sha256": "8b1546bc97b540afd525fe88f36a315de18b4d57bd9fab73035dacd8962e302e" + "spec_sha256": "35a02b6b19c921faba1407d441e0b9d9623c496e2cd5b711be014def281a95c6" } }, "report_schema_version": 3, @@ -2609,7 +2609,7 @@ "country": "us", "schema_id": "country_spec", "schema_version": 1, - "spec_sha256": "8b1546bc97b540afd525fe88f36a315de18b4d57bd9fab73035dacd8962e302e" + "spec_sha256": "35a02b6b19c921faba1407d441e0b9d9623c496e2cd5b711be014def281a95c6" }, "status": "pass" } diff --git a/docs/evidence/uk-887/census-households-cells.json b/docs/evidence/uk-887/census-households-cells.json new file mode 100644 index 000000000..d4f1d1256 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/evidence/uk-887/census-households-cells.json @@ -0,0 +1,10145 @@ +{ + "purpose": "Public source-only per-cell evidence for microcosm#887 review round 1; no solve or population microdata.", + "date": "2026-09-10", + "model_period": 2025, + "chronicle_feed": { + "path_name": "chronicle-uk-artifact-ec7169b", + "fact_row_count": 131450, + "facts_sha256": "4a50ee9568a01bbb57f73d927084ed6b4b9e52249b51a2338455874ae6e382b5", + "schema_version": "policyengine_ledger.consumer_artifact.v2", + "manifest_sha256": "a95d0ee9f87f36947eaecdb3de29cf81a91e47ccaa822fed42da677eedca877f", + "schema_epoch": "ledger", + "fact_key_epochs": [ + "ledger" + ], + "undeclared_fact_key_domains": [], + "fact_schema_versions": [ + "ledger.consumer_fact.v1" + ] + }, + "ladder": { + "path": "build/uk/uk_oa_ladder_2021.npz", + "sha256": "bed3f13d3a82eea2d1f39248b71c0abf5ba6960a446ddd9415ae1dbcb7ae07fd" + }, + "uprating": { + "reference_households": 29003000, + "old_ladder_factor": 1.0335759110777614, + "chronicle_factors": { + "constituency": 1.0335597414671631, + "local_authority": 1.0335595204737118 + } + }, + "row_count": 1011, + "cells": [ + { + "area_code": "E14001063", + "level": "constituency", + "ladder_households": 46164, + "ladder_uprated": 47713.99835899378, + "chronicle_households": 46171, + "chronicle_uprated": 47720.486823280386, + "ladder_minus_chronicle": -7.0, + "ladder_uprated_minus_chronicle_uprated": -6.488464286609087 + }, + { + "area_code": "E14001064", + "level": "constituency", + "ladder_households": 39208, + "ladder_uprated": 40524.44432153687, + "chronicle_households": 39205, + "chronicle_uprated": 40520.70966422013, + "ladder_minus_chronicle": 3.0, + "ladder_uprated_minus_chronicle_uprated": 3.7346573167378665 + }, + { + "area_code": "E14001065", + "level": "constituency", + "ladder_households": 40761, + "ladder_uprated": 42129.58771144063, + "chronicle_households": 40763, + "chronicle_uprated": 42130.99574142597, + "ladder_minus_chronicle": -2.0, + "ladder_uprated_minus_chronicle_uprated": -1.4080299853376346 + }, + { + "area_code": "E14001066", + "level": "constituency", + "ladder_households": 40417, + "ladder_uprated": 41774.03759802988, + "chronicle_households": 40413, + "chronicle_uprated": 41769.249831912464, + "ladder_minus_chronicle": 4.0, + "ladder_uprated_minus_chronicle_uprated": 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"family": "council_tax_stock", + "target": 2528140.0, + "control_estimate": 2527976.882118713, + "candidate_estimate": 2525878.8736705044, + "control_relative_error": -6.45209052057597e-05, + "candidate_relative_error": -0.0008943833527793444, + "absolute_error_change_pp": 0.08298624475735847 + }, + { + "name": "voa.council_tax_stock.band_f@2025", + "family": "council_tax_stock", + "target": 1343220.0, + "control_estimate": 1345912.8241853714, + "candidate_estimate": 1344068.872639656, + "control_relative_error": 0.0020047528963024665, + "candidate_relative_error": 0.0006319684338053832, + "absolute_error_change_pp": -0.13727844624970834 + }, + { + "name": "voa.council_tax_stock.band_g@2025", + "family": "council_tax_stock", + "target": 911160.0, + "control_estimate": 912219.1403989792, + "candidate_estimate": 910256.6156177521, + "control_relative_error": 0.001162408796456371, + "candidate_relative_error": -0.0009914662433029597, + "absolute_error_change_pp": -0.01709425531534114 + }, + { + "name": "voa.council_tax_stock.band_h@2025", + "family": "council_tax_stock", + "target": 154470.0, + "control_estimate": 154569.6538925171, + "candidate_estimate": 154799.60537719727, + "control_relative_error": 0.0006451342818481895, + "candidate_relative_error": 0.002133782463891148, + "absolute_error_change_pp": 0.14886481820429584 + }, + { + "name": "voa.council_tax_stock.total@2025", + "family": "council_tax_stock", + "target": 25746570.0, + "control_estimate": 25763917.025259446, + "candidate_estimate": 25755437.759537708, + "control_relative_error": 0.0006737606313946422, + "candidate_relative_error": 0.0003444248899060346, + "absolute_error_change_pp": -0.03293357414886076 + } + ], + "objective_weight_changes": [ + { + "control_name": "obr.income_tax@2025", + "candidate_name": "obr.income_tax@2025", + "control_family": "obr", + "candidate_family": "obr", + "control_weight": 0.002380952380952381, + "candidate_weight": 0.002506265664160401 + }, + { + "control_name": "obr.ni@2025", + "candidate_name": "obr.ni@2025", + "control_family": "obr", + "candidate_family": "obr", + "control_weight": 0.002380952380952381, + "candidate_weight": 0.002506265664160401 + }, + { + "control_name": "obr.ni_employee@2025", + "candidate_name": "obr.ni_employee@2025", + "control_family": "obr", + "candidate_family": "obr", + "control_weight": 0.002380952380952381, + "candidate_weight": 0.002506265664160401 + }, + { + "control_name": "obr.ni_employer@2025", + "candidate_name": "obr.ni_employer@2025", + "control_family": "obr", + "candidate_family": "obr", + "control_weight": 0.002380952380952381, + "candidate_weight": 0.002506265664160401 + }, + { + "control_name": "obr.ni_self_employed@2025", + "candidate_name": "obr.ni_self_employed@2025", + "control_family": "obr", + "candidate_family": "obr", + "control_weight": 0.002380952380952381, + "candidate_weight": 0.002506265664160401 + }, + { + "control_name": "obr.vat@2025", + "candidate_name": "obr.vat@2025", + "control_family": "obr", + "candidate_family": "obr", + "control_weight": 0.002380952380952381, + "candidate_weight": 0.002506265664160401 + }, + { + "control_name": "obr.capital_gains_tax@2025", + "candidate_name": "hmrc.cgt.liability_total@2025", + "control_family": "obr", + "candidate_family": "hmrc_cgt", + "control_weight": 0.002380952380952381, + "candidate_weight": 0.015873015873015872 + }, + { + "control_name": "obr.sdlt@2025", + "candidate_name": "obr.sdlt@2025", + "control_family": "obr", + "candidate_family": "obr", + "control_weight": 0.002380952380952381, + "candidate_weight": 0.002506265664160401 + }, + { + "control_name": "obr.attendance_allowance@2025", + "candidate_name": "obr.attendance_allowance@2025", + "control_family": "obr", + "candidate_family": "obr", + "control_weight": 0.002380952380952381, + "candidate_weight": 0.002506265664160401 + }, + { + "control_name": "obr.carers_allowance@2025", + "candidate_name": "obr.carers_allowance@2025", + "control_family": "obr", + "candidate_family": "obr", + "control_weight": 0.002380952380952381, + "candidate_weight": 0.002506265664160401 + }, + { + "control_name": "obr.child_benefit@2025", + "candidate_name": "obr.child_benefit@2025", + "control_family": "obr", + "candidate_family": "obr", + "control_weight": 0.002380952380952381, + "candidate_weight": 0.002506265664160401 + }, + { + "control_name": "obr.council_tax@2025", + "candidate_name": "obr.council_tax@2025", + "control_family": "obr", + "candidate_family": "obr", + "control_weight": 0.002380952380952381, + "candidate_weight": 0.002506265664160401 + }, + { + "control_name": "obr.esa@2025", + "candidate_name": "obr.esa@2025", + "control_family": "obr", + "candidate_family": "obr", + "control_weight": 0.002380952380952381, + "candidate_weight": 0.002506265664160401 + }, + { + "control_name": "obr.jobseekers_allowance@2025", + "candidate_name": "obr.jobseekers_allowance@2025", + "control_family": "obr", + "candidate_family": "obr", + "control_weight": 0.002380952380952381, + "candidate_weight": 0.002506265664160401 + }, + { + "control_name": "obr.pension_credit@2025", + "candidate_name": "obr.pension_credit@2025", + "control_family": "obr", + "candidate_family": "obr", + "control_weight": 0.002380952380952381, + "candidate_weight": 0.002506265664160401 + }, + { + "control_name": "obr.pip@2025", + "candidate_name": "obr.pip@2025", + "control_family": "obr", + "candidate_family": "obr", + "control_weight": 0.002380952380952381, + "candidate_weight": 0.002506265664160401 + }, + { + "control_name": "obr.state_pension@2025", + "candidate_name": "obr.state_pension@2025", + "control_family": "obr", + "candidate_family": "obr", + "control_weight": 0.002380952380952381, + "candidate_weight": 0.002506265664160401 + }, + { + "control_name": "obr.statutory_maternity_pay@2025", + "candidate_name": "obr.statutory_maternity_pay@2025", + "control_family": "obr", + "candidate_family": "obr", + "control_weight": 0.002380952380952381, + "candidate_weight": 0.002506265664160401 + }, + { + "control_name": "obr.tv_licence_fee@2025", + "candidate_name": "obr.tv_licence_fee@2025", + "control_family": "obr", + "candidate_family": "obr", + "control_weight": 0.002380952380952381, + "candidate_weight": 0.002506265664160401 + }, + { + "control_name": "obr.winter_fuel_allowance@2025", + "candidate_name": "obr.winter_fuel_allowance@2025", + "control_family": "obr", + "candidate_family": "obr", + "control_weight": 0.002380952380952381, + "candidate_weight": 0.002506265664160401 + }, + { + "control_name": "hmrc.cgt.taxpayers_total@2025", + "candidate_name": "hmrc.cgt.taxpayers_total@2025", + "control_family": "hmrc_cgt", + "candidate_family": "hmrc_cgt", + "control_weight": 0.023809523809523808, + "candidate_weight": 0.015873015873015872 + }, + { + "control_name": "hmrc.cgt.gains_total@2025", + "candidate_name": "hmrc.cgt.gains_total@2025", + "control_family": "hmrc_cgt", + "candidate_family": "hmrc_cgt", + "control_weight": 0.023809523809523808, + "candidate_weight": 0.015873015873015872 + } + ], + "objective_caution": "The treatment combines measurement year, individual scope, liability comparator and the automatic family_equal row-weight changes. Held-weight CGT2024 evaluations isolate measurement from reweighting; they do not isolate each reason the fitted weights change.", + "schema_version": 1, + "receipt_kind": "public_aggregate_projection_of_authenticated_saved_run_evidence", + "input_receipt": { + "logical_name": "cgt-rebase-run-evidence.json", + "sha256": "c4f60e880fea2f993328876cab5f61d739b7942e891ebf01aad32fcb181a7af1", + "size_bytes": 466498, + "path_normalization": "Machine-specific paths replaced with artifact basenames; raw gate attestation/signature material omitted. No numeric result changed." + }, + "execution_and_review_scope": { + "numerical_candidate": "9b5ac7c52f8a3742940674dd2b58a7595ea24db6", + "numerical_control": "cc9c953c72b003406f4aeec8ae5e82bd211099bc", + "review_start": "393d069364737650a8652dc19cb0cfe40763ad82", + "review_changes": "Optional diagnostic availability, active-exemption retirement, historical parity metadata, test harmonization and public evidence. Captured original failures are historical, not reevaluated under the retired register. No source, outcome or fit rerun.", + "original_gate_scope": "The original national scoped calibration battery excludes release-cut-owned compile-parity gates. Its two empty-UC-band plus five stale-exemption failures are historical captured results. Review-time full-feed parity checks are separate; neither establishes release certification." + }, + "control": { + "code_pin": "cc9c953c72b003406f4aeec8ae5e82bd211099bc", + "source_sha256": "03a63ecc1d0b3064d42e8b412fa4a28c587a79bd153ff2ffebc2715f4b316e33", + "facts_sha256": "4a50ee9568a01bbb57f73d927084ed6b4b9e52249b51a2338455874ae6e382b5", + "manifest_sha256": "a95d0ee9f87f36947eaecdb3de29cf81a91e47ccaa822fed42da677eedca877f", + "uv_lock_sha256": "4ef1ef6eb39b65ebc47c2c00bafa44e7c872544b1b0146dd8493bcfe45b2da1b", + "runtime": { + "h5py": "3.16.0", + "numpy": "2.4.6", + "pandas": "3.0.3", + "policyengine-core": "3.31.0", + "policyengine-uk": "2.97.0", + "policyengine-us": "1.819.0", + "quantile-forest": "1.4.2", + "scipy": "1.17.1", + "tables": "3.11.1", + "torch": "2.12.0" + }, + "completion": { + "capture_present": true, + "elapsed_seconds": 193.2684162920341, + "error": { + "message": "Gate battery blocked at phase 'terminal' (report: artifact:calibration_gates.json):\n - [uk_target_fit] microcosm_uk_2024: dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_27_600_to_28_800@2025 relative error -100.0% exceeds 25%.\n - [uk_target_fit] microcosm_uk_2024: dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_28_800_to_30_000@2025 relative error -100.0% exceeds 25%.\n - [uk_target_fit] Stale reviewed target-fit exclusions are back inside the bound; remove them: ['dwp.uc.households_children_1@2025', 'dwp.uc.households_children_2@2025', 'dwp.uc.households_children_5_or_more@2025', 'dwp.uc.households_single_with_children@2025', 'hmrc/private_pension_income_count_income_band_100_000_to_150_000@2025'].", + "type": "GateBatteryBlockedError" + }, + "exit_code": 1, + "finished_at": "2026-09-09T16:34:39.164498+00:00", + "peak_rss_bytes_macos": 3005366272, + "staged_h5_present": false, + "started_at": "2026-09-09T16:31:25.895893+00:00" + }, + "diagnostics": { + "path": "artifact:calibration_diagnostics.json", + "sha256": "17c41983ec199683329e0daef77043b49761cb4ac51486cdd0ef54ddb7eb3fbb", + "size_bytes": 1807990 + }, + "options": { + "method": "adam", + "epochs": 1500, + "learning_rate": 0.02, + "iterate_selection": "best_feasible_loss", + "iterate_selection_receipt": { + "rule": "best_feasible_loss", + "selected_epoch": 1333, + "epochs_executed": 1500, + "epoch_convention": "completed_optimizer_updates; zero is start", + "selected_loss_float32": 0.011822213418781757, + "closing_iterate_loss_float32": 0.012390774674713612 + }, + "mass": "free", + "mass_reason": "National doctrine calibration to bound target family(ies) council_tax_stock, dfe_funded_childcare, dft_local_bus, dwp_benefit_cap, dwp_legacy_benefits, dwp_two_child_limit, dwp_universal_credit, hmrc_cgt, hmrc_salary_sacrifice, hmrc_spi, hmrc_tfc, isc, obr, ons_employment, ons_household_composition, ons_land, ons_population, scotgov_social_security, slc_borrowers, slc_repayments, slc_student_support; total household mass moved with the targets.", + "max_weight_ratio": 10.0, + "target_records": null, + "l1_lambda": 0.0, + "l1_penalty": "mean_initial_weight_ratio_abs", + "l2_lambda": 0.0, + "l2_anchor": "initial", + "l2_anchor_weights_supplied": false, + "l2_penalty": "mean_initial_pre_gate_weight_ratio_squared", + "seed": 0, + "target_loss_weights": { + "kind": "provided", + "n": 366, + "sum": 0.9999999999999999, + "min": 0.00036913990402362494, + "max": 0.047619047619047616 + }, + "target_loss_scales": { + "kind": "default_target", + "formula": "weighted_mean(min(abs((estimate - target) / scale), cap))", + "cap": 10.0, + "n": 366, + "min": 605.7777777777778, + "median": 867465.0, + "max": 7117771000000.0 + }, + "warm_start_weights": { + "enabled": false, + "kind": null + }, + "matrix_format": "sparse_csr" + }, + "ess": 14049.76239586668, + "max_prior_weight_ratio": 10.0, + "weight_sum": 29900349.733421523, + "initial_weight_sum": 29247433.0, + "households": 52846, + "nonzero_weights": 52846, + "at_10x_bound_rtol_1e_6": 139, + "capture": { + "artifacts": { + "calibrated.diagnostic.private.h5": { + "sha256": "fb67e46dfcf803f7ba7ce10f271768644a9cc3c5d6ee1f1fc1fafc7dc499f762", + "size_bytes": 160897649 + }, + "matrix.private.npz": { + "sha256": "9d5e1598c7751dce94c6446e50a9e10d2a6a2544574720cd471c055db847c4d5", + "size_bytes": 3622279 + }, + "solve.private.npz": { + "sha256": "cbd020e4abfea28b9dfa82c10bc687d03e93c23e972782f0843cc500be168e47", + "size_bytes": 407211 + } + }, + "capture_point": "before unchanged national gate enforcement", + "code_pin": "cc9c953c72b003406f4aeec8ae5e82bd211099bc", + "final_loss": 0.01182203087237668, + "posture": "private_diagnostic_only_not_certified", + "shape": [ + 366, + 52846 + ], + "solve_options": { + "epochs": 1500, + "iterate_selection": "best_feasible_loss", + "iterate_selection_receipt": { + "closing_iterate_loss_float32": 0.012390774674713612, + "epoch_convention": "completed_optimizer_updates; zero is start", + "epochs_executed": 1500, + "rule": "best_feasible_loss", + "selected_epoch": 1333, + "selected_loss_float32": 0.011822213418781757 + }, + "l1_lambda": 0.0, + "l1_penalty": "mean_initial_weight_ratio_abs", + "l2_anchor": "initial", + "l2_anchor_weights_supplied": false, + "l2_lambda": 0.0, + "l2_penalty": "mean_initial_pre_gate_weight_ratio_squared", + "learning_rate": 0.02, + "mass": "free", + "mass_reason": "National doctrine calibration to bound target family(ies) council_tax_stock, dfe_funded_childcare, dft_local_bus, dwp_benefit_cap, dwp_legacy_benefits, dwp_two_child_limit, dwp_universal_credit, hmrc_cgt, hmrc_salary_sacrifice, hmrc_spi, hmrc_tfc, isc, obr, ons_employment, ons_household_composition, ons_land, ons_population, scotgov_social_security, slc_borrowers, slc_repayments, slc_student_support; total household mass moved with the targets.", + "matrix_format": "sparse_csr", + "max_weight_ratio": 10.0, + "method": "adam", + "seed": 0, + "target_loss_scales": { + "cap": 10.0, + "formula": "weighted_mean(min(abs((estimate - target) / scale), cap))", + "kind": "default_target", + "max": 7117771000000.0, + "median": 867465.0, + "min": 605.7777777777778, + "n": 366 + }, + "target_loss_weights": { + "kind": "provided", + "max": 0.047619047619047616, + "min": 0.00036913990402362494, + "n": 366, + "sum": 0.9999999999999999 + }, + "target_records": null, + "warm_start_weights": { + "enabled": false, + "kind": null + } + } + }, + "original_gates": { + "blocked_at_phase": "terminal", + "country": "uk", + "evidence_sha256": {}, + "gates": { + "uk_aggregate_admin": { + "criticality": "release_blocking", + "details": { + "anchors_checked": 3 + }, + "failures": [], + "gate": "aggregate_admin", + "phase": "terminal", + "reason": null, + "status": "passed" + }, + "uk_calibration_reference_coverage": { + "criticality": "release_blocking", + "details": { + "activated": 366, + "matrix": 366, + "resolved": 366 + }, + "failures": [], + "gate": "calibration_reference_coverage", + "phase": "terminal", + "reason": null, + "status": "passed" + }, + "uk_target_fit": { + "criticality": "release_blocking", + "details": { + "candidate_name": "microcosm_uk_2024", + "dormant_exclusions": [], + "exclusions_evaluated_on": "2026-09-09", + "expired_exclusions": [], + "failing_targets": { + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_27_600_to_28_800@2025": -1.0, + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_28_800_to_30_000@2025": -1.0 + }, + "max_abs_relative_error": 0.25, + "premature_exclusions": [], + "reviewed_exclusions": { + "obr.capital_gains_tax@2025": { + "adjudication": "microcosm#875", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "expires_on": "2026-10-05", + "reason": "Vintage conflict, not a fit defect: the Chronicle re-pin (microcosm#874) put HMRC's 2024-25 CGT outturn on the feed (\u00a3127.3bn of chargeable gains, 584k taxpayers, against \u00a369.9bn / 403k in 2023-24 \u2014 the forestalling year ahead of the 30 October 2024 rate rise) and the doctrine binds it at face value at the 2025 period; the frame fits both HMRC rows within 0.3% and 2025-26 rates on those gains give \u00a331.4bn of liability (24.7% effective) against OBR's \u00a321.8bn FY2025-26 receipts and HMRC's realised 19.0% on the same gains (+44.2% at the composed calibration; \u221225% with the 2023-24 gains). The facts stay bound as published; the deliverable is a declared 2024-25 \u2192 2025 translation of the gains total under the WS-C reconciliation layer (#875: the index ruling, applying uprating_index in the compile step, the taxpayer count flat at 584k, the cash-lag mapping for self-assessed OBR lines). While in force the calibrated 2025-26 base carries ~40% more CGT liability than OBR expects.", + "relative_error": 0.447710376098256 + } + }, + "stale_exclusions": [ + "dwp.uc.households_children_1@2025", + "dwp.uc.households_children_2@2025", + "dwp.uc.households_children_5_or_more@2025", + "dwp.uc.households_single_with_children@2025", + "hmrc/private_pension_income_count_income_band_100_000_to_150_000@2025" + ], + "targets_checked": 366 + }, + "failures": [ + "microcosm_uk_2024: dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_27_600_to_28_800@2025 relative error -100.0% exceeds 25%.", + "microcosm_uk_2024: dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_28_800_to_30_000@2025 relative error -100.0% exceeds 25%.", + "Stale reviewed target-fit exclusions are back inside the bound; remove them: ['dwp.uc.households_children_1@2025', 'dwp.uc.households_children_2@2025', 'dwp.uc.households_children_5_or_more@2025', 'dwp.uc.households_single_with_children@2025', 'hmrc/private_pension_income_count_income_band_100_000_to_150_000@2025']." + ], + "gate": "target_fit", + "phase": "terminal", + "reason": null, + "status": "failed" + }, + "uk_weight_ess": { + "criticality": "release_blocking", + "details": { + "effective_sample_size": 14049.76239586668, + "ess_fraction": 0.2658623622576294, + "max_to_median_positive_weight": 83.24100190968494, + "max_weight": 24597.220703125, + "median_positive_weight": 295.4940490722656, + "minimum_ess_fraction": 0.01, + "n_records": 52846, + "positive_weight_records": 52846, + "top_1pct_weight_share": 0.12558151635559262, + "total_weight": 29900349.733421523, + "zero_weight_records": 0 + }, + "failures": [], + "gate": "weight_ess", + "phase": "terminal", + "reason": null, + "status": "passed" + }, + "uk_weight_ratio": { + "criticality": "release_blocking", + "details": { + "effective_sample_size": 14049.76239586668, + "ess_fraction": 0.2658623622576294, + "max_to_median_positive_weight": 83.24100190968494, + "max_weight": 24597.220703125, + "maximum_max_to_median_ratio": 1151.2542195939373, + "median_positive_weight": 295.4940490722656, + "n_records": 52846, + "positive_weight_records": 52846, + "top_1pct_weight_share": 0.12558151635559262, + "total_weight": 29900349.733421523, + "zero_weight_records": 0 + }, + "failures": [], + "gate": "weight_ratio", + "phase": "terminal", + "reason": null, + "status": "passed" + }, + "uk_zero_weight_strata": { + "criticality": "release_blocking", + "details": { + "ambiguous_household_examples": [], + "ambiguous_zero_weight_rows": 0, + "declared_strata": [ + { + "maximum_zero_weight_rows": 100000, + "missing_selector_columns": [], + "name": "june_spi_synthetic_base", + "reason": "The certified June FRS-derived artifact ships 100,000 zero-weight SPI-synthetic non-capital-gains rows.", + "selector": { + "household_is_capital_gains_clone": false, + "household_is_spi_synthetic": true + }, + "zero_weight_rows": 0 + }, + { + "maximum_zero_weight_rows": 100000, + "missing_selector_columns": [], + "name": "june_spi_synthetic_capital_gains", + "reason": "The certified June FRS-derived artifact ships 100,000 zero-weight SPI-synthetic capital-gains-clone rows.", + "selector": { + "household_is_capital_gains_clone": true, + "household_is_spi_synthetic": true + }, + "zero_weight_rows": 0 + } + ], + "household_rows": 52846, + "unmatched_household_examples": [], + "unmatched_zero_weight_rows": 0, + "zero_weight_rows": 0 + }, + "failures": [], + "gate": "zero_weight_strata", + "phase": "terminal", + "reason": null, + "status": "passed" + } + }, + "gates_manifest_sha256": "cb0d7ce17c0cd3cf70bd432d4ba85efce3fa837ebf3caba5f5cf0b5545c5dc61", + "phases": [ + "terminal" + ], + "phases_evaluated": [ + "terminal" + ], + "policy_sha256": "290b1ad240bf4f6412dcaa87c77283dad79d88c817b10b2f402736378fd3d63d", + "release_candidate": false, + "release_evidence": { + "calibration_diagnostics_sha256": "17c41983ec199683329e0daef77043b49761cb4ac51486cdd0ef54ddb7eb3fbb" + }, + "release_id": "uk-cgt-rebase-main-cc9c953c", + "schema_version": 4, + "shippable": false, + "spec_fingerprint": "0be90511d13f826076a1a04e15addf37b3b00453393947b038d95502846684c4" + }, + "original_gate_outcomes_sha256": "89b78a3a2d2b65c106b2bc63bd506521734b3fcf040aa44b3ead68c5c45a4301" + }, + "candidate": { + "code_pin": "9b5ac7c52f8a3742940674dd2b58a7595ea24db6", + "source_sha256": "03a63ecc1d0b3064d42e8b412fa4a28c587a79bd153ff2ffebc2715f4b316e33", + "facts_sha256": "4a50ee9568a01bbb57f73d927084ed6b4b9e52249b51a2338455874ae6e382b5", + "manifest_sha256": "a95d0ee9f87f36947eaecdb3de29cf81a91e47ccaa822fed42da677eedca877f", + "uv_lock_sha256": "4ef1ef6eb39b65ebc47c2c00bafa44e7c872544b1b0146dd8493bcfe45b2da1b", + "runtime": { + "h5py": "3.16.0", + "numpy": "2.4.6", + "pandas": "3.0.3", + "policyengine-core": "3.31.0", + "policyengine-uk": "2.97.0", + "policyengine-us": "1.819.0", + "quantile-forest": "1.4.2", + "scipy": "1.17.1", + "tables": "3.11.1", + "torch": "2.12.0" + }, + "completion": { + "capture_present": true, + "elapsed_seconds": 226.57220754097216, + "error": { + "message": "Gate battery blocked at phase 'terminal' (report: artifact:calibration_gates.json):\n - [uk_target_fit] microcosm_uk_2024: dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_27_600_to_28_800@2025 relative error -100.0% exceeds 25%.\n - [uk_target_fit] microcosm_uk_2024: dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_28_800_to_30_000@2025 relative error -100.0% exceeds 25%.\n - [uk_target_fit] Stale reviewed target-fit exclusions are back inside the bound; remove them: ['dwp.uc.households_children_1@2025', 'dwp.uc.households_children_2@2025', 'dwp.uc.households_children_5_or_more@2025', 'dwp.uc.households_single_with_children@2025', 'hmrc/private_pension_income_count_income_band_100_000_to_150_000@2025'].", + "type": "GateBatteryBlockedError" + }, + "exit_code": 1, + "finished_at": "2026-09-09T16:41:50.130493+00:00", + "peak_rss_bytes_macos": 2340814848, + "staged_h5_present": false, + "started_at": "2026-09-09T16:38:03.558031+00:00" + }, + "diagnostics": { + "path": "artifact:calibration_diagnostics.json", + "sha256": "4ef99e8170567f98c670d9c44f9245dfb66b103a91cae593ce53a8856b02bf2d", + "size_bytes": 1814616 + }, + "options": { + "method": "adam", + "epochs": 1500, + "learning_rate": 0.02, + "iterate_selection": "best_feasible_loss", + "iterate_selection_receipt": { + "rule": "best_feasible_loss", + "selected_epoch": 1422, + "epochs_executed": 1500, + "epoch_convention": "completed_optimizer_updates; zero is start", + "selected_loss_float32": 0.01230266410857439, + "closing_iterate_loss_float32": 0.01246922928839922 + }, + "mass": "free", + "mass_reason": "National doctrine calibration to bound target family(ies) council_tax_stock, dfe_funded_childcare, dft_local_bus, dwp_benefit_cap, dwp_legacy_benefits, dwp_two_child_limit, dwp_universal_credit, hmrc_cgt, hmrc_salary_sacrifice, hmrc_spi, hmrc_tfc, isc, obr, ons_employment, ons_household_composition, ons_land, ons_population, scotgov_social_security, slc_borrowers, slc_repayments, slc_student_support; total household mass moved with the targets.", + "max_weight_ratio": 10.0, + "target_records": null, + "l1_lambda": 0.0, + "l1_penalty": "mean_initial_weight_ratio_abs", + "l2_lambda": 0.0, + "l2_anchor": "initial", + "l2_anchor_weights_supplied": false, + "l2_penalty": "mean_initial_pre_gate_weight_ratio_squared", + "seed": 0, + "target_loss_weights": { + "kind": "provided", + "n": 366, + "sum": 0.9999999999999999, + "min": 0.00036913990402362494, + "max": 0.047619047619047616 + }, + "target_loss_scales": { + "kind": "default_target", + "formula": "weighted_mean(min(abs((estimate - target) / scale), cap))", + "cap": 10.0, + "n": 366, + "min": 605.7777777777778, + "median": 867465.0, + "max": 7117771000000.0 + }, + "warm_start_weights": { + "enabled": false, + "kind": null + }, + "matrix_format": "sparse_csr" + }, + "ess": 13725.441394894662, + "max_prior_weight_ratio": 10.0, + "weight_sum": 29907447.93041397, + "initial_weight_sum": 29247433.0, + "households": 52846, + "nonzero_weights": 52846, + "at_10x_bound_rtol_1e_6": 178, + "capture": { + "artifacts": { + "calibrated.diagnostic.private.h5": { + "sha256": "fcfe4ccce8060874397d49da2b4bfe97b3b66b73f1e2e0f3805a409f2dae80a6", + "size_bytes": 160890203 + }, + "matrix.private.npz": { + "sha256": "d2330fb6967547feebf43a5a7bb19b893a8cdf2a8022db46ba781cf71f84ba4d", + "size_bytes": 3585389 + }, + "solve.private.npz": { + "sha256": "16c5ccd3de7c741366c5fcdbb0e82f6bba6ab9f7e91d6c3cb34d56fd4bc578e1", + "size_bytes": 407440 + } + }, + "capture_point": "before unchanged national gate enforcement", + "code_pin": "9b5ac7c52f8a3742940674dd2b58a7595ea24db6", + "final_loss": 0.012302734910399767, + "posture": "private_diagnostic_only_not_certified", + "shape": [ + 366, + 52846 + ], + "solve_options": { + "epochs": 1500, + "iterate_selection": "best_feasible_loss", + "iterate_selection_receipt": { + "closing_iterate_loss_float32": 0.01246922928839922, + "epoch_convention": "completed_optimizer_updates; zero is start", + "epochs_executed": 1500, + "rule": "best_feasible_loss", + "selected_epoch": 1422, + "selected_loss_float32": 0.01230266410857439 + }, + "l1_lambda": 0.0, + "l1_penalty": "mean_initial_weight_ratio_abs", + "l2_anchor": "initial", + "l2_anchor_weights_supplied": false, + "l2_lambda": 0.0, + "l2_penalty": "mean_initial_pre_gate_weight_ratio_squared", + "learning_rate": 0.02, + "mass": "free", + "mass_reason": "National doctrine calibration to bound target family(ies) council_tax_stock, dfe_funded_childcare, dft_local_bus, dwp_benefit_cap, dwp_legacy_benefits, dwp_two_child_limit, dwp_universal_credit, hmrc_cgt, hmrc_salary_sacrifice, hmrc_spi, hmrc_tfc, isc, obr, ons_employment, ons_household_composition, ons_land, ons_population, scotgov_social_security, slc_borrowers, slc_repayments, slc_student_support; total household mass moved with the targets.", + "matrix_format": "sparse_csr", + "max_weight_ratio": 10.0, + "method": "adam", + "seed": 0, + "target_loss_scales": { + "cap": 10.0, + "formula": "weighted_mean(min(abs((estimate - target) / scale), cap))", + "kind": "default_target", + "max": 7117771000000.0, + "median": 867465.0, + "min": 605.7777777777778, + "n": 366 + }, + "target_loss_weights": { + "kind": "provided", + "max": 0.047619047619047616, + "min": 0.00036913990402362494, + "n": 366, + "sum": 0.9999999999999999 + }, + "target_records": null, + "warm_start_weights": { + "enabled": false, + "kind": null + } + } + }, + "original_gates": { + "blocked_at_phase": "terminal", + "country": "uk", + "evidence_sha256": {}, + "gates": { + "uk_aggregate_admin": { + "criticality": "release_blocking", + "details": { + "anchors_checked": 3 + }, + "failures": [], + "gate": "aggregate_admin", + "phase": "terminal", + "reason": null, + "status": "passed" + }, + "uk_calibration_reference_coverage": { + "criticality": "release_blocking", + "details": { + "activated": 366, + "matrix": 366, + "resolved": 366 + }, + "failures": [], + "gate": "calibration_reference_coverage", + "phase": "terminal", + "reason": null, + "status": "passed" + }, + "uk_target_fit": { + "criticality": "release_blocking", + "details": { + "candidate_name": "microcosm_uk_2024", + "dormant_exclusions": [ + "obr.capital_gains_tax@2025" + ], + "exclusions_evaluated_on": "2026-09-09", + "expired_exclusions": [], + "failing_targets": { + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_27_600_to_28_800@2025": -1.0, + "dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_28_800_to_30_000@2025": -1.0 + }, + "max_abs_relative_error": 0.25, + "premature_exclusions": [], + "reviewed_exclusions": {}, + "stale_exclusions": [ + "dwp.uc.households_children_1@2025", + "dwp.uc.households_children_2@2025", + "dwp.uc.households_children_5_or_more@2025", + "dwp.uc.households_single_with_children@2025", + "hmrc/private_pension_income_count_income_band_100_000_to_150_000@2025" + ], + "targets_checked": 366 + }, + "failures": [ + "microcosm_uk_2024: dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_27_600_to_28_800@2025 relative error -100.0% exceeds 25%.", + "microcosm_uk_2024: dwp/uc_payment_dist/COUPLE_NO_CHILDREN_annual_payment_28_800_to_30_000@2025 relative error -100.0% exceeds 25%.", + "Stale reviewed target-fit exclusions are back inside the bound; remove them: ['dwp.uc.households_children_1@2025', 'dwp.uc.households_children_2@2025', 'dwp.uc.households_children_5_or_more@2025', 'dwp.uc.households_single_with_children@2025', 'hmrc/private_pension_income_count_income_band_100_000_to_150_000@2025']." + ], + "gate": "target_fit", + "phase": "terminal", + "reason": null, + "status": "failed" + }, + "uk_weight_ess": { + "criticality": "release_blocking", + "details": { + "effective_sample_size": 13725.441394894662, + "ess_fraction": 0.25972526577025057, + "max_to_median_positive_weight": 85.49229471574556, + "max_weight": 24780.9453125, + "median_positive_weight": 289.8617401123047, + "minimum_ess_fraction": 0.01, + "n_records": 52846, + "positive_weight_records": 52846, + "top_1pct_weight_share": 0.12740097580722864, + "total_weight": 29907447.93041397, + "zero_weight_records": 0 + }, + "failures": [], + "gate": "weight_ess", + "phase": "terminal", + "reason": null, + "status": "passed" + }, + "uk_weight_ratio": { + "criticality": "release_blocking", + "details": { + "effective_sample_size": 13725.441394894662, + "ess_fraction": 0.25972526577025057, + "max_to_median_positive_weight": 85.49229471574556, + "max_weight": 24780.9453125, + "maximum_max_to_median_ratio": 1151.2542195939373, + "median_positive_weight": 289.8617401123047, + "n_records": 52846, + "positive_weight_records": 52846, + "top_1pct_weight_share": 0.12740097580722864, + "total_weight": 29907447.93041397, + "zero_weight_records": 0 + }, + "failures": [], + "gate": "weight_ratio", + "phase": "terminal", + "reason": null, + "status": "passed" + }, + "uk_zero_weight_strata": { + "criticality": "release_blocking", + "details": { + "ambiguous_household_examples": [], + "ambiguous_zero_weight_rows": 0, + "declared_strata": [ + { + "maximum_zero_weight_rows": 100000, + "missing_selector_columns": [], + "name": "june_spi_synthetic_base", + "reason": "The certified June FRS-derived artifact ships 100,000 zero-weight SPI-synthetic non-capital-gains rows.", + "selector": { + "household_is_capital_gains_clone": false, + "household_is_spi_synthetic": true + }, + "zero_weight_rows": 0 + }, + { + "maximum_zero_weight_rows": 100000, + "missing_selector_columns": [], + "name": "june_spi_synthetic_capital_gains", + "reason": "The certified June FRS-derived artifact ships 100,000 zero-weight SPI-synthetic capital-gains-clone rows.", + "selector": { + "household_is_capital_gains_clone": true, + "household_is_spi_synthetic": true + }, + "zero_weight_rows": 0 + } + ], + "household_rows": 52846, + "unmatched_household_examples": [], + "unmatched_zero_weight_rows": 0, + "zero_weight_rows": 0 + }, + "failures": [], + "gate": "zero_weight_strata", + "phase": "terminal", + "reason": null, + "status": "passed" + } + }, + "gates_manifest_sha256": "cb0d7ce17c0cd3cf70bd432d4ba85efce3fa837ebf3caba5f5cf0b5545c5dc61", + "phases": [ + "terminal" + ], + "phases_evaluated": [ + "terminal" + ], + "policy_sha256": "290b1ad240bf4f6412dcaa87c77283dad79d88c817b10b2f402736378fd3d63d", + "release_candidate": false, + "release_evidence": { + "calibration_diagnostics_sha256": "4ef99e8170567f98c670d9c44f9245dfb66b103a91cae593ce53a8856b02bf2d" + }, + "release_id": "uk-cgt-rebase-candidate", + "schema_version": 4, + "shippable": false, + "spec_fingerprint": "0be90511d13f826076a1a04e15addf37b3b00453393947b038d95502846684c4" + }, + "original_gate_outcomes_sha256": "19006c79c0345d8d462270f2a83981cbb2ec219ac4574033f191d674f77cc22a" + }, + "control_original_cgt_rows": [ + { + "name": "hmrc.cgt.gains_total@2025", + "target_name": "hmrc.cgt.gains_total", + "period": 2025, + "entity": "person", + "measure": { + "kind": "column", + "name": "hmrc/capital_gains_total" + }, + "filter": null, + "source": "hmrc | Capital Gains Tax statistics Table 1: taxpayer numbers, gains and tax liabilities by year of disposal | Table_1_2026_Taxpayer_numbers_gains_and_tax_liabilities.ods | cgt_statistics_2026 | https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a7b23f1bbafcd1db3b6e420/Table_1_2026_Taxpayer_numbers_gains_and_tax_liabilities.ods", + "metadata": { + "ledger_source": "policyengine-ledger-data", + "ledger_fact_key": "ledger.aggregate_fact.v2:a9969c2a306f713f6bb203fc", + "ledger_source_record_id": "hmrc.cgt_statistics_2026.table1.ty2024.ty2024.total_gains", + "ledger_aggregate_fact_key": "ledger.aggregate_fact.v2:a9969c2a306f713f6bb203fc", + "ledger_semantic_fact_key": "ledger.semantic_fact.v2:b3278862060c7036e8477ea5", + "ledger_legacy_fact_key": "ledger.fact.v1:1f177e0b7aa93ea81dcb6318", + "ledger_observed_measure_key": "ledger.observed_measure.v2:76f6824292f0e8bd3edb801f", + "ledger_dimension_set_key": "ledger.dimension_set.v2:44136fa355b3678a1146ad16", + "ledger_universe_constraint_set_key": "ledger.universe_constraint_set.v2:31e69e018123fa4b604582eb", + "ledger_measure_concept": "hmrc.cgt_gains_total", + "ledger_measure_unit": "gbp", + "ledger_source_concept": "hmrc.cgt_gains_total", + "ledger_concept_relation": "source_label", + "ledger_concept_authority": "hmrc", + "ledger_period_type": "tax_year", + "ledger_fact_period": "2024", + "ledger_assertion": "observation", + "ledger_geography_level": "country", + "ledger_geography_id": "K02000001", + "ledger_geography_vintage": "current", + "ledger_entity_name": "tax_unit", + "ledger_entity_role": "taxpayer", + "ledger_domain": "capital_gains_tax", + "ledger_layout_record_set_id": "hmrc.cgt_statistics_2026.table1.ty2024", + "ledger_layout_record_set_spec_id": "hmrc.cgt_statistics_2026.table1.ty2024.v1", + "ledger_layout_groupby_dimension": "hmrc.cgt_table1_line", + "ledger_layout_groupby_value_id": "ty2024", + "ledger_layout_measure_id": "total_gains", + "ledger_aggregation_method": "sum", + "ledger_resolved_assertion": "observation", + "contract_target_id": "hmrc.cgt.gains_total", + "measure_kind": "prepared_column", + "ledger_value_operation": "identity", + "ledger_assertion_policy": "observed_only", + "ledger_period_match_policy": "latest_not_after", + "ledger_selector_entity_name": "tax_unit", + "ledger_selector_geography_id": "K02000001", + "ledger_selector_geography_level": "country", + "ledger_selector_groupby_dimension": "hmrc.cgt_table1_line", + "ledger_selector_source_concept": "hmrc.cgt_gains_total", + "ledger_selector_source_name": "hmrc", + "uprating_from_period": "2024", + "uprating_to_period": "2025" + }, + "target": 127316000000.0, + "compiled_target": 127316000000.0, + "initial_estimate": 63762165202.22743, + "final_estimate": 127484860359.64522, + "relative_error": 0.0013263090235729829, + "within_tolerance": null, + "registry": { + "family": "hmrc_cgt", + "se": null, + "signed": false, + "notes": "" + }, + "target_loss_weight": 0.023809523809523808, + "target_loss_weight_share": 0.02380952380952381, + "target_loss_scale": 127316000000.0, + "final_capped_scaled_error": 0.0013263090235729829, + "final_loss_contribution": 3.1578786275547216e-05 + }, + { + "name": "hmrc.cgt.taxpayers_total@2025", + "target_name": "hmrc.cgt.taxpayers_total", + "period": 2025, + "entity": "person", + "measure": { + "kind": "column", + "name": "hmrc/cgt_taxpayers" + }, + "filter": null, + "source": "hmrc | Capital Gains Tax statistics Table 1: taxpayer numbers, gains and tax liabilities by year of disposal | Table_1_2026_Taxpayer_numbers_gains_and_tax_liabilities.ods | cgt_statistics_2026 | https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a7b23f1bbafcd1db3b6e420/Table_1_2026_Taxpayer_numbers_gains_and_tax_liabilities.ods", + "metadata": { + "ledger_source": "policyengine-ledger-data", + "ledger_fact_key": "ledger.aggregate_fact.v2:ec8cf88ffb8304ce72228e8b", + "ledger_source_record_id": "hmrc.cgt_statistics_2026.table1.ty2024.ty2024.total_taxpayers", + "ledger_aggregate_fact_key": "ledger.aggregate_fact.v2:ec8cf88ffb8304ce72228e8b", + "ledger_semantic_fact_key": "ledger.semantic_fact.v2:d8d5e36429e422aaaa00ae63", + "ledger_legacy_fact_key": "ledger.fact.v1:2d23c0c3cead7d492138056c", + "ledger_observed_measure_key": "ledger.observed_measure.v2:5bbe59f8c9f99ad916666bd7", + "ledger_dimension_set_key": "ledger.dimension_set.v2:44136fa355b3678a1146ad16", + "ledger_universe_constraint_set_key": "ledger.universe_constraint_set.v2:31e69e018123fa4b604582eb", + "ledger_measure_concept": "hmrc.cgt_taxpayers_total", + "ledger_measure_unit": "count", + "ledger_source_concept": 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The accepted FY2024-25 deliverable binds individual HMRC gains, taxpayers and liability; retaining its former cash-fit deferral as dormant would misstate the active surface. HMRC liability has no replacement exemption. This does not close or amend issue #875 or settle its general forward-year cash-lag rule.", + "original_entry": { + "reason": "Vintage conflict, not a fit defect: the Chronicle re-pin (microcosm#874) put HMRC's 2024-25 CGT outturn on the feed (\u00a3127.3bn of chargeable gains, 584k taxpayers, against \u00a369.9bn / 403k in 2023-24 \u2014 the forestalling year ahead of the 30 October 2024 rate rise) and the doctrine binds it at face value at the 2025 period; the frame fits both HMRC rows within 0.3% and 2025-26 rates on those gains give \u00a331.4bn of liability (24.7% effective) against OBR's \u00a321.8bn FY2025-26 receipts and HMRC's realised 19.0% on the same gains (+44.2% at the composed calibration; \u221225% with the 2023-24 gains). The facts stay bound as published; the deliverable is a declared 2024-25 \u2192 2025 translation of the gains total under the WS-C reconciliation layer (#875: the index ruling, applying uprating_index in the compile step, the taxpayer count flat at 584k, the cash-lag mapping for self-assessed OBR lines). While in force the calibrated 2025-26 base carries ~40% more CGT liability than OBR expects.", + "approved_by": "juaristi22", + "adjudication": "microcosm#875", + "approved_on": "2026-09-05", + "expires_on": "2026-10-05" + }, + "original_resource_path": "packages/microcosm-build/src/microcosm/build/uk/target_fit_reviewed_exclusions.json", + "original_resource_commit": "393d069364737650a8652dc19cb0cfe40763ad82", + "original_resource_sha256": "6349f231c953bb2e4316bbffa3fef0522a60e3fed315c64ad16112e2499d6a41", + "original_entry_canonical_sha256": "57745ddabd919957b7b45eba5fbeac7c3d6b997192da0e22d5f79adc7b0ba869", + "approval_note": "Original approver, adjudication, approved_on and expires_on are historical fields preserved verbatim. No new human signature, renewal or expiry is asserted." + } + }, + "target_comparison_csv": { + "path": "target-comparison.csv", + "rows": 363, + "sha256": "44c8d59a9452935991f9e2f6fb6b5f186191ebeb71d9687381c1c4a81d5b88b4", + "all_rows_have_identical_source_coefficients_and_target_values": true, + "line_endings": "LF", + "source_export_sha256": "e3c07b97bb805e15d2f100fe2d8c1b1b6c06286ac61b3b2285ace339bcf2c449", + "source_export_line_endings": "CRLF", + "parsed_header_and_all_rows_equal_source_export": true + }, + "reproduction_provenance": { + "family_weighting": "family_equal", + "national_chronicle_code_pin": "ec7169b5db40b9f54117c80f70f14efc1dd0fedd", + "local_chronicle_code_pin": "6fb700e", + "source_origin_code_pin": "a2ecb2060b5b612fbe66e6589d54baf83632e787", + "python": "3.13.14", + "input_h5_sha256": "03a63ecc1d0b3064d42e8b412fa4a28c587a79bd153ff2ffebc2715f4b316e33", + "invocations": { + "control": { + "logical_name": "national-rebase-main-cc9c953c/invocation.json", + "sha256": 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+voa.council_tax_stock.band_g@2025,council_tax_stock,911160.0,912219.1403989792,910256.6156177521,0.001162408796456371,-0.0009914662433029597,-0.01709425531534114 +voa.council_tax_stock.band_h@2025,council_tax_stock,154470.0,154569.6538925171,154799.60537719727,0.0006451342818481895,0.002133782463891148,0.14886481820429584 +voa.council_tax_stock.total@2025,council_tax_stock,25746570.0,25763917.025259446,25755437.759537708,0.0006737606313946422,0.0003444248899060346,-0.03293357414886076 diff --git a/docs/uk-cgt-observation-year-875.md b/docs/uk-cgt-observation-year-875.md new file mode 100644 index 000000000..aa02d23fd --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/uk-cgt-observation-year-875.md @@ -0,0 +1,124 @@ +# CGT observation year and individual scope + +The FY2024–25 dataset uses HMRC's three individual observations for that year: +551,000 taxpayers, £119.258bn gains and £22.503bn liability. Calibration remains +indexed at 2025 and exported source data remains dated 2024. The contract pins +exact Chronicle keys, individual scope and `tax_year: 2024`; trust-inclusive +national totals cannot satisfy these references. + +`measurement_period: 2024` forces the CGT outcome calculation to use 2024 rather +than the default calibration period, and disables the stored-column shortcut. +The dated aliases bind a variable and year, refuse a mismatched binding, and may +not be persisted in the source H5. Gains and the taxpayer proxy share the 2024 +annual exempt amount (£3,000) and gains array. The proxy selects gains above the +allowance; it does not identify every administrative taxpayer below that +threshold. The gains input is net of losses before the allowance; the aggregate +binding makes no additional loss or allowance deduction. + +## Observed-year fit and cash diagnostic + +For this accepted FY2024–25 deliverable, the three published individual +observations replace the former trust-inclusive gains/count and OBR cash fit. +This explicitly supersedes the former FY2025–26 solve disposition described in +[#875](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/875) **for this observed-year +acceptance unit**. The historical issue body and earlier deliverable remain part +of the record; a scoped decision record does not close the issue or settle the +general self-assessment liability-to-cash translation. +The forward-year reconciliation remains separate work. + +The unchanged March 2026 OBR FY2025–26 cash forecast (£21.801546197bn) remains a +separately pinned diagnostic outside fitting. Its exact key, fiscal year, +source-projection assertion, value and source survive when the fact is available. +Absent, incompatible or duplicate diagnostic data produces explicit `unavailable` +metadata, the expected identity and a reason, with no numeric substitute. It does +not remove any independently valid HMRC observation. A malformed committed +cash declaration remains a compilation error; so do missing, duplicate or +incompatible fitted HMRC observations. No cash row returns to the matrix. + +The former active `obr.capital_gains_tax@2025` fit exemption is retired because +that row is no longer fitted. Its exact historical reason, approver, +adjudication and dates are preserved in the +[aggregate evidence](evidence/uk-cgt-889/calibration-comparison.json). +This retirement creates no new human signature, renewal or expiry. Merged #892 +independently retired the five UC/pension fit exemptions. Their composition with +this PR leaves the active target-fit exemption register empty; gate thresholds +are unchanged and HMRC liability has no exemption. + +The recorded 9b5/cc9 comparison used 366 targets across 21 families. With `family_equal`, +OBR has 19 rows instead of 20 and `hmrc_cgt` has three instead of two. Each retained +OBR row changes from weight 1/420 to 1/399; gains/count change from 1/42 to 1/63; +the replacement tax row changes from 1/420 to 1/63. These 22 changes follow family +membership. The comparison therefore combines dating, individual scope, liability +comparator and objective weighting; it is not an isolated causal year effect. + +**Applicability, 10 September 2026:** this PR is rebased onto main `45231f9e`, +which preserves #892 and #877 from the `141bface` feature baseline. The later +#899 changes only CI run scheduling and its documentation. Main's two additional +UC payment-tail measure exclusions reduce the expected default fitted roster to +364 of 415 references. +Those exclusions apply before solving and are distinct from target-fit exemptions. +The original 366-row objective, fitted weights and failed gate maps remain +historical evidence. No fit or gate certification on the rebased head is claimed. + +## Dating, revision and materialization + +The #881 `year_rule` mechanism resolves release-relative survey/calibration years +for source construction, policy lookups and predictor materialization. A fixed +administrative observation must keep its date when the release advances, so its +`measurement_period` is a separate target contract. A future shared generic +variable/period resolver may simplify the implementation; automatically replacing +2024 with the survey year would change the present observation's meaning. + +The provisional HMRC observations use exact aggregate keys. A different-key +revision alongside the old observation leaves the old key selected. Removing the +pinned key or duplicating it fails compilation. The authoring field +`matched_fact_count_at_or_before_period` is descriptive metadata, not a runtime +revision guard. A lone altered value under the same key is accepted by the +compiler if artifact verification is bypassed; immutable facts and manifest +hashes prevent that alteration in the authenticated build path. + +To adopt a revision, authenticate a new Chronicle artifact, review its year, +population and values, deliberately update changed keys and feed hashes, and +regenerate references, membership, relevant public fixtures and parity receipts. +Rerun strict-selection, real-feed and dated-export checks; refresh numerical +evidence if fitted values change. Never loosen selectors to choose the latest +publication silently. + +Both national and local paths resolve the dated arrays before materialization. +The rowwise builder resolves each block, aligns by entity IDs, injects the alias +columns and then builds the target matrix. Scoring uses the same resolve/inject +route. The adapter's refusal of an unresolved alias is intentional. The national +and local parametrized integration tests exercise the real resolver with distinct +2024/2025 outcomes, fit weights and restore the original base-year HDF columns; +a separate UK2.97 engine case verifies the calculation date. The source-column +restoration does not reverse the fitted weights. These tests do not certify a +full local calibration. + +## Source, dependency and evidence boundary + +The lock remains PolicyEngine-UK 2.97.0 / Core 3.31.0. National targets use Chronicle +`ec7169b5db40b9f54117c80f70f14efc1dd0fedd`; local targets retain the separate `6fb700e` +artifact. The four CGT/OBR facts are identical across those feeds. The #891 paid +UC source windows and family classification, and #892's explicit monthly-window +metadata, are preserved. + +Source Tables 2/3 remain the 2025 publication's FY2023–24 distribution, mapped into +the 2024 build. Donor selection, carrier count, gain amounts, ages and geography +are unchanged. Older source-stage prose describes the preceding two-target or +trust-inclusive surface; the current target contract controls the three fitted +individual observations. Distribution fences remain active. No source-vintage, +tail, age or liability-model repair is implemented here. + +Merged [#892](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/pull/892) supplies the #883 +graph prerequisite, its serialized fixture and the claimant-role regression. +The rebase drops this PR's duplicate prerequisite commits and retains the upstream +coverage. Merged #877's size-selection and checkpoint behavior, corrected local +private-rent target composition and attested calibration identities are also +preserved. This PR does not claim a new source build or full local calibration. + +The [historical matched comparison](../experiments/889-cgt-observation-year.md) +records the 9b5/ec7 candidate and cc9/ec7 control on the identical source. Its +£108.032bn gains remain 9.41% below HMRC, despite liability and taxpayer totals +being close. Both that comparison and the older 30479731/6fb comparison retain +their original code and target-surface provenance. Neither historical national +fit, diagnostic export nor unit tests certify a releasable dataset. diff --git a/docs/uk-chronicle-feed-repin.md b/docs/uk-chronicle-feed-repin.md index e02652661..064abd3b3 100644 --- a/docs/uk-chronicle-feed-repin.md +++ b/docs/uk-chronicle-feed-repin.md @@ -31,3 +31,8 @@ local regeneration test accepts either the default `.codex-work` files or a The national calibration runner refuses a feed whose facts or manifest digest differs from its committed pin. `--allow-unpinned-feed` is an explicit diagnostic override and is recorded in the run manifest; it is not a re-pin procedure. + +After the `ec7169b` re-pin, census household targets use the same Chronicle +compile path as every other bound UK local family. The OA ladder now supplies +geography assignment and diagnostic household dispersion only; it no longer +creates calibration targets or a non-contract reconciliation surface. diff --git a/docs/uk-dataset-size-plan-355.md b/docs/uk-dataset-size-plan-355.md new file mode 100644 index 000000000..4b2ce4b21 --- /dev/null +++ b/docs/uk-dataset-size-plan-355.md @@ -0,0 +1,187 @@ +# UK dataset sizes: implementation plan and operating boundary + +This implements the candidate-building part of [#355](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/355) +on [#870](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/pull/870)'s branch. The PR is still open as of +2026-09-05 and itself stacks on #852. Do not base the work on the old issue's +535,080-household 2023 dataset. The authoritative inputs are the current raw-FRS +2024-25 spine, OA ladder, and pinned Chronicle facts used by the joint candidate. + +## Decisions retained + +- Pool generation keeps clone count **K=15**. Requested output households is a + different parameter, applied after cloning and materialization. +- The joint surface retains national, constituency and local-authority rows, + the declared stretch bound **10**, loss cap **10**, **grain_equal** weighting, + and **1,500 epochs** per solve in the normal driver defaults. +- Existing binding adjudications, signed deferrals, measure exclusions, + census-vintage uprating, and all local gates remain in force. Size selection + does not silently drop target rows, loosen ESS floors or change registers. +- Population-normalized engine measures are frozen from the full pool. The + refit uses their selected household contributions rather than re-running + those formulas on a smaller population. +- The Frame carries complete households, benefit units and people; every + non-dry attempt retains the existing Logbook recording envelope. + +## Implemented sequence + +1. Build the usual joint dense solve from the pinned inputs. This also supplies + the same-target reference loss for the size comparison. +2. Compute each household's maximum absolute target-contribution share from + original pool weights and the compiled sparse matrix, following + [#346's correction](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm/issues/346#issuecomment-4902880142). + Protect the largest absolute weighted carrier of each nonzero target, with + first-column tie breaking. Initialize open probabilities with + `0.1 + 0.8 * score / (score + median_positive_score)`. This bounded smooth + prior is an implementation choice for candidate evaluation, not a measured + UK release ruling. Run L0 budget search; never select the largest prior scores. +3. Use the existing exact-count Sampford sampler on learned probabilities. + Probability-one gates are certainties (`pi_hi=1`), including every protected + carrier. Refuse impossible budgets or sampling designs rather than clamp. + The certainty threshold is a candidate-run knob (`--selection-pi-hi`, + default 1). The first licensed rehearsal (2026-09-08, 55,000 of 792,690 at + 100 epochs) was refused at the draw: the budget search meets its target on + the count of not-fully-closed gates while the exact-count design can only + draw from the open-probability mass, which fell a fifth short. The refusal + and the size receipt now carry a feasibility measurement (boundary mass and + largest gate, the largest feasible count at `pi_hi=1`, the smallest feasible + threshold on a grid). Ruling (María, 2026-09-08): the smoke accepts the + measured feasible count; the 55,000 candidate runs at `pi_hi=0.95` (the US + exact-k ladder's setting) and 2,000 epochs. A threshold below one promotes + learned near-certain gates and is recorded, never a release default. + + The same 2026-09-08 ruling fixes the local private-rent binding: each 2025 + PIPR calendar-year mean monthly rent is composed into the linear annual + total `12 × mean × renter households`, using the matching authority's + A17-uprated `ons.tenure.private_rent` count. The composed total remains the + bound `rent/private_rent` target, and its inputs ride the cross-grain receipt. +4. Refit on the selected support through `microcosm.calibrate`, with no L0 + penalty. Reuse the existing normalized Horvitz–Thompson `w/q` baseline. + The stretch multiplier remains 10 **relative to that inclusion-adjusted + baseline**; this is the shared exact-k refit's contract, not a claim that + sparse weights remain within 10 times the unexpanded pool-row weights. + The manifest names the reference explicitly. Its empirical suitability for + UK release remains to be assessed alongside the size scorecard. +5. Restore the prepared carrier and export only selected linked entities. + Re-run the existing local gate battery on the compact frame. Each holdout + fold independently reruns selection on training targets; held targets do + not inform the prior or protected set. +6. Record requested/realized counts, pool positions, inclusion probabilities, + protected count, seed, learned penalty, dense/refit loss and target change, + the gate reports, and ordinary byte-pinned output metadata. + +## Running a candidate + +Use the inputs and environment from the existing +[UK dense assembly runbook](uk-dense-release-assembly-runbook-762.md). +Pass the same pinned source arguments to the existing driver and add: + +```bash +uv run python tools/build_uk_rowwise_candidate.py \ + --input-h5 "$UK_SPINE_H5" --input-sha256 "$UK_SPINE_SHA256" \ + --ladder "$UK_LADDER_NPZ" --ladder-sha256 "$UK_LADDER_SHA256" \ + --ledger-facts "$UK_LEDGER_FACTS" \ + --ledger-facts-sha256 "$UK_LEDGER_FACTS_SHA256" \ + --ledger-manifest-sha256 "$UK_LEDGER_MANIFEST_SHA256" \ + --dataset-households 50000 --seed 42 --out out/uk-k50000 +``` + +Repeat with another positive household count and a fresh output directory to +compare sizes. These are requested counts, not certified presets. Omit +`--dataset-households` to retain the existing dense path. Add `--dry-run` to +inspect input binding and parameters without solving or writing a candidate. +Never reduce `--n-clones` to request a smaller output. Full builds still need +the dense build's peak memory and add L0/refit work; the reduction is in the +exported dataset's storage and downstream loading/simulation footprint. + +### The search stops on the draw's own feasibility; the solve is checkpointed before the draw (2026-09-09) + +S2 on spine-p (55,000 at `--selection-pi-hi 0.95`, 2,000 epochs) was refused at the +exact-count draw after 4.8 hours. The mass-basis budget search had stopped inside its +±5% band at an open mass of 54,834, 166 rows *under* the request; the draw's +condition is one-sided (roughly "open mass at least the request", exactly +`(k − certainties) × max(boundary π) ≤ Σ boundary π`), and with near-binary gates the +tail below 0.95 held 291 rows of mass for 437 places. Two changes follow: + +- The size selection's search now stops only on a probe whose gate probabilities + admit the draw at the requested threshold (`calibrate(..., feasible_draw_pi_hi=…)` + on the mass basis; verdicts from `exact_k_design_feasibility`, the draw's own + inequality). An infeasible probe steers the bisection like a count miss (short + boundary mass → smaller penalty, surplus certainties → larger). Every probe and the + reason the search stopped are recorded under `selection_budget_search` in the size + receipt; if no probe is drawable within the ten-probe budget the closest run is + still returned and the draw refuses with its measurement, as before. +- A size run writes `size_selection_checkpoint.{npz,json}` into `--out` after the + dense solve and the search, before the draw (the dense weights and trajectory, the + selection's weights, gate probabilities and search receipt, the protected-carrier + mask, and the identity of the pool, the target surface and the solve settings). + `--resume-size-checkpoint DIR` re-derives the pool and the surface, verifies that + identity, rebuilds both results through `rebuild_calibration_result`, and continues + at the draw; `--selection-pi-hi` may differ from the threshold the search stopped + on and both are recorded (`selection_pi_hi`, `selection_search_pi_hi`). A draw + refusal therefore costs a re-draw, not the pool solve. `--no-size-checkpoint` + opts out. The checkpoint is candidate evidence, never a release input. + +### The solve reports progress (2026-09-09) + +A size run used to be silent between "solving ... under the doctrine..." and its manifest, five +hours later. The doctrine solve now takes a `progress` line sink (the driver writes it to stderr, +so it lands in the run log): a timestamped loss line every hundred epochs and at the last epoch +of the dense solve, of every budget probe and of the refit; one line per finished probe with its +penalty, open mass, certainties, boundary draw and mass, and its drawability verdict +(`budget_probe` events from the search); and one line when the search stops, naming why and +what it selected (`budget_search_done`). Nothing else changes: the events ride the calibrator's +existing `progress_callback` seam. + +### Review round on #877 (Vahid, 2026-09-09) + +Three should-fix items and two questions changed the machinery: + +- **A resume cannot drift from the doctrine.** The checkpoint identity now carries the solve doctrine + (`_doctrine_bounds()`: the stretch multiplier, the loss cap, the rule) beside the pins, seeds and sizes, + and the doctrine solve asserts the restored options (`max_weight_ratio`, `mass`, `target_loss_cap`) + against today's doctrine after the load, refusing by name. The writing run's code pin and build id ride + in the checkpoint's `provenance` and are reported on resume, not compared, so a receipts commit does + not invalidate a checkpoint. +- **A stale checkpoint in `--out` refuses before the solve.** The driver checks for + `size_selection_checkpoint.{npz,json}` beside the other pre-solve output guards; the writer's own + refusal stays as the last line of defence. +- **`gates.py` and `initialization.py` are attested and controlled.** Both join the seed-protocol + implementation digest (`seeds.py`), so a change to gate behaviour or the contribution prior moves the + attested identity; and the pre-best-iterate oracle now runs with a frozen copy of the gate module + (`tests/fixtures/pre_best_iterate/gates_.py`) instead of the live one, so a gate-behaviour change + surfaces as a numeric mismatch on the gated control path rather than being absorbed on both sides. +- **The draw's determinism is stated.** The size receipt carries `certainty_share` and `boundary_draws`: + on the two 55,000 candidates 99.3 % / 99.7 % of the count was decided by the threshold on learned π and + 405 / 156 rows were drawn. The manifest's stretch keys are honest: `realized_max_weight_ratio_vs_stretch_reference` + is measured against the frame the refit started from (the HT baseline on a size run) and + `realized_max_weight_ratio_vs_design` against the pool design weights themselves. +- **Zero-valued targets are counted.** `zero_target_rows` in the size receipt says how many compiled rows + carry a zero target, the case where the contribution prior uses a unit denominator. + +## Certification and publication still required + +The implementation produces **candidates**, not a new certified UK default. +A size request refuses `--release-candidate`, and its manifest records +`releasable=false` even if the diagnostic gate run passes. The dense assembler +must not interpret a compact candidate as the already reviewed dense line. +The existing registry, production pointers and pe.py default are unchanged. + +Before any size can be promoted: + +1. Run the licensed full-input build, retain all gate failures and measure + local ESS and fit. A nominal 50k size is not guaranteed to clear the floors + that motivated K=15. +2. Run #355's matched sound-comparison protocol and the referenced promotion + scorecard, including reform/distributional validation and untargeted bases. + Calibration loss alone is not a certificate. The included same-target loss + comparison is a diagnostic, not a substitute for those protocols. +3. Adjudicate any new size-specific acceptance decisions, including the + inclusion-adjusted stretch reference. A national-only product would need + its own explicit scope; this implementation does not downgrade local claims. +4. Add size-specific certified release identities, assembly contracts and + downstream bundle entries against that evidence; publication remains the + repository's deliberate human step. + +Accordingly, this increment does not close #355's default-flip requirement. +Synthetic CI checks prove code behavior and artifact structure; they do not +establish licensed-data fit, storage measurements, or release eligibility. diff --git a/docs/uk-dense-release-assembly-runbook-762.md b/docs/uk-dense-release-assembly-runbook-762.md index f923829f3..fc2fb830f 100644 --- a/docs/uk-dense-release-assembly-runbook-762.md +++ b/docs/uk-dense-release-assembly-runbook-762.md @@ -58,7 +58,8 @@ uv run --no-sync python tools/score_uk_local_candidate.py ... --output-json = 18 OR (age >= 15 AND role)` to reproduce `SPM_NUMADULTS`, +`SPM_NUMKIDS`, and `SPM_NUMPER` for all 176,039 source units and 59,900 native +BuildP units. This is an inference from documented relationships, exhaustively +checked for these sources; it is not a claim to possess the Census production +program. New source vintages must pass reconciliation independently. + +The join uses income/source year and exact 22-digit string `PERIDNUM`. +Repeated source people across support clones are allowed; missing matches, +ambiguous source IDs, repeated people within one native SPM unit, partial +source units, and inconsistent raw fields are refused. Older missing +relationship cells remain missing. Existing model ages must equal observed +source ages. No weights enter the reconciliation. + +BuildP uses a PyTables compound dataset at `/person/table`. Adding a native +column necessarily extends that compound type; a new unrelated H5 group would +be ignored by the existing country loader. The only permitted physical schema +changes are: + +- Append one HDF bitfield byte (pandas Boolean) after every original record's + bytes. All original field names, order, offsets, types, shapes, and bytes + remain exact, including NaN payloads and signed zero. +- Append the new column's registration to the four `/person` attributes + `data_columns`, `values_cols`, `non_index_axes`, and `info`, and add its five + PyTables field attributes. Every existing registration entry remains intact. + +All other H5 groups, datasets, indexes, types, shapes, attributes, and bytes +are compared against the actual parent. Thus logical pre-existing variable +identity is exact; the enclosing compound datatype is explicitly extended. +The builder copies the parent and does not repack it, so the new file can +retain unused space from the replaced person table. New HDF object timestamps +are disabled for deterministic output within the recorded runtime. + +The generated three-column evidence CSV must also match independently reviewed +SHA256 `22b5968d90fecfeef7614583e493fe10cc16bda8b5be82e6f49a5bc2102d3ce5`. +The CSV is never used to derive the role. Parent and source evidence are copied +unchanged into the release bundle; H5 and evidence files are read-only on exit. +The H5 belongs only in `artifact_root`, for upload at its manifest-declared root +path. A same-named entry in the release directory is rejected before compatibility +probing or Hub client activity, including identical copies and symlinks: either +would otherwise change the publisher's upload destination. + +## Build and validate a local candidate + +Use the repository's installed environment. These commands do not fetch data, +calibrate, or publish. Populate the source cache through the existing pinned +Census source acquisition pipeline, or supply its directory explicitly. +The parent evidence directory contains the original `release_manifest.json`, +`build_manifest.json`, `calibration_diagnostics.json`, and +`us_source_coverage.json`. + +```bash +python tools/build_us_spm_role_enrichment.py \ + --parent-h5 /path/to/certified/populace_us_2024.h5 \ + --parent-release-dir /path/to/buildp-release-source-receipts \ + --source-cache /path/to/pinned/census-person-csvs \ + --reference-evidence-csv /path/to/source-spm-person-independence-private.csv \ + --output-dir /path/to/new-candidate \ + --release-id populace-us-2024-buildp-spm-role-REVIEWED-NEW-ID + +python -m microcosm.data.source_enrichment \ + --release-dir /path/to/new-candidate/releases/RELEASE_ID \ + --parent-h5 /path/to/certified/populace_us_2024.h5 \ + --artifact-root /path/to/new-candidate/artifacts +``` + +The candidate has `release_type: source_enrichment` and +`compatibility.status: pending`. It includes no inherited built-with or model +compatibility claims. An existing output directory is refused, and a failed +build removes its staging output. Its producer receipt identifies the actual +Git commit, dirty status, and source files. Rebuild from the reviewed clean +producer commit before certification; do not edit a dirty receipt to say clean. +The producer also records Python, HDF5, NumPy, pandas, h5py, PyTables, and data +package versions so serialization can be reproduced in the same runtime. + +## Actual compatibility, preflight, and authorized publication + +Install the actual country, Core, wrapper, and `spm-calculator` wheels in an +isolated qualification environment. These may be local candidate wheels; prior +registry publication or wrapper certification on the new H5 is not required. +Certification runs the real country and wrapper +native H5 loaders, verifies the role, IDs, memberships and existing weights, +checks that the country registers a person Boolean variable, and calculates +only the primitive on a small complete native household to prove explicit +inputs override its default formula. It does not run a population simulation. +Installed Python sources must match all four supplied wheels and their versions. +The country registers the native role class supplied by +`spm_calculator/policyengine_adapter.py`; its source is bound to the calculator +wheel, while country and wrapper loader sources bind to their respective wheels. + +```bash +python -m microcosm.data.source_enrichment --certify \ + --release-dir /path/to/new-candidate/releases/RELEASE_ID \ + --output-dir /path/to/certified/releases/RELEASE_ID \ + --parent-h5 /path/to/certified/populace_us_2024.h5 \ + --artifact-root /path/to/new-candidate/artifacts \ + --compatibility-wheel /path/to/policyengine_us-EXACT.whl \ + --compatibility-wheel /path/to/policyengine_core-EXACT.whl \ + --compatibility-wheel /path/to/policyengine-EXACT.whl \ + --compatibility-wheel /path/to/spm_calculator-EXACT.whl + +microcosm-publish-release /path/to/certified/releases/RELEASE_ID \ + --repo-id policyengine/populace-us \ + --parent-h5 /path/to/certified/populace_us_2024.h5 \ + --artifact-root /path/to/new-candidate/artifacts \ + --compatibility-wheel /path/to/policyengine_us-EXACT.whl \ + --compatibility-wheel /path/to/policyengine_core-EXACT.whl \ + --compatibility-wheel /path/to/policyengine-EXACT.whl \ + --compatibility-wheel /path/to/spm_calculator-EXACT.whl \ + --preflight-only +``` + +Certification creates a separate bundle with measured compatibility; it leaves +the candidate H5 and source evidence unchanged. Both the preflight above and +the real publisher share local preparation: they invoke the source-enrichment +validator, replay the H5 and compatibility checks, and enforce release filenames, +root artifact paths/hashes, revision/tag pins and dataset-role/latest-pointer +eligibility. Preflight never constructs a Hub client or performs Hub activity; +publication constructs its client only after these checks pass. Pass the same +tag, extra-file and latest-pointer options to preflight as to publication. +The evidence-tier publisher cannot be used as an escape hatch. Pending +compatibility and a recorded dirty producer build are hard publication failures. + +Coordinated order: build local candidate wheels, test them against the existing +immutable candidate H5, then let root commit the clean reviewed producer and +create fresh qualification receipts. Root separately verifies external package +publication and numerical/Fable acceptance before data publication and consumer +promotion. A wrapper candidate can load this local H5 before either is published, +so H5 qualification does not depend on an already certified wrapper release. +Qualification retains `external_package_publication: not_attested` and +`scope: native_input_loading_only`; it never substitutes for numerical acceptance. + +These receipts deliberately state that external package publication and +canonical SPM numerical acceptance are **not attested**. Root owns exact Fable +review, canonical calculator/country/wrapper/Axiom parity, and the immutable +published package proof. Once those gates pass and root authorizes publication, +use `tools/publish_release.sh` with the same directory and arguments, remove +`--preflight-only`, and add `--tag-name RELEASE_ID`. The existing publisher +creates the new immutable Hugging Face tag; its standard invocation also +updates `latest.json`. An inspect-only tag uses `--no-latest --tag-only`. +Neither candidate construction nor certification authorizes either mutation. + +Run certification and publisher commands from the Microcosm checkout. Publication +authenticates the six recorded producer source hashes against the recorded Git +commit, the checkout, and the executing data contract modules. A later docs-only +commit is allowed; an invented clean flag, missing commit, changed source, or +older installed producer module is refused. + +## Local regression checks + +```bash +python -m pytest \ + packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_spm_role_source.py \ + packages/microcosm-build/tests/test_us_spm_role_enrichment_builder.py \ + packages/microcosm-data/tests/test_h5_enrichment.py \ + packages/microcosm-data/tests/test_source_enrichment.py \ + packages/microcosm-data/tests/test_contract.py \ + packages/microcosm-data/tests/test_release.py \ + packages/microcosm-data/tests/test_publish_guard.py +python tools/ci_test_groups.py --verify +ruff check . +``` + +These tests use synthetic populations. Their success is not certification of +the full private artifact or compatibility with an unreleased model. diff --git a/experiments/355-uk-dataset-size-receipts.md b/experiments/355-uk-dataset-size-receipts.md new file mode 100644 index 000000000..424851239 --- /dev/null +++ b/experiments/355-uk-dataset-size-receipts.md @@ -0,0 +1,732 @@ +# #355 dataset-size receipts: 55,000 households by informed L0 on the #877 machinery + +Plan of record: `repos/uk-355-size-experiment-plan.md` (approved 2026-09-08, two rounds). These +receipts record what was run, on which pinned inputs, and what was measured. They are candidate +evidence only: no size run is releasable (`--release-candidate` is refused with +`--dataset-households`), no gate threshold is loosened, and nothing here promotes an artifact. +Kept separate from the #762 receipts (`experiments/762-uk-rowwise-candidate-receipts.md`). + +Rulings carried in (María, 2026-09-08): K=15 cloning stays in front of the selection (the dense +joint solve runs on the whole 792,690-row pool; the size machinery then keeps 55,000 of those +rows); `--epochs 2000` on size runs (drives the dense solve, every L0 probe and the refit); skip +holdout on the first 55k run; no dense baseline on the new inputs unless the rough comparison with +R17 shows large deviations; engine policyengine-uk 2.94.0; Chronicle feed 6fb700e. + +## Step 0 — #877 CI green before any run + +CI run 34216367053 on 56aa4e25 (the spec-engine re-pin) was red in four jobs with one cause: the +`solve.py` edit in #877 moved two more source-hashed identities. + +| lane | test | pin | fix | +|---|---|---|---| +| `fast (rest)` ×2 | `microcosm-graph/tests/test_acceptance_h_parity.py::test_h1_kernel_parity`, `test_graph_serialize.py::test_generated_parity_graphs_bind_real_kernels_and_direct_bytes` | `calibrate.adam@1` implementation hash a7a0330f… → d24fc41d… (`source_hash` over the calibrate modules) | H1 fixture regenerated on its authoring platform (arm64/darwin/py3.14; numpy 2.4.6, pandas 3.0.3, scipy 1.17.1, torch 2.12.0) with `tools/graph_parity_fixtures.py`; only `calibrate/pins.json` taken (direct bytes and graph unchanged). The generator also resets `fit.qrf/pins.json`'s platform map to the authoring platform, dropping its two linux pins; that file was reverted. | +| `engine-us (us-am)` ×2 | `test_us_multispine_pool_tool.py::test_constants_adapter_equals_live_constants_and_stays_out_of_identities` | US `spec_sha256` 9db29b4d… → 9db2d6db… | re-pinned | + +Commit 1b0583b7. Local: graph 336 passed, multispine pool tool 187 passed, spec-engine pin files 50 +passed. Pushed with C1/C2 below as d4043ec7; CI run 34223080395. + +The run on d4043ec7 then failed in the `wheels` lane only (both Python versions): the size CLI test read +the exported H5 through `pd.HDFStore`, and the wheels venv has no pytables (7,963 passed, 587 skipped, that +one failure). The file's convention is `pytest.importorskip("tables")` + `importorskip("h5py")` at the top of +every CLI test; the size test lacked them, and the two new evaluation test files write PyTables-format H5 +the same way. All three now skip without pytables (verified by blocking the import locally); the workspace +and engine lanes, which have pytables, run them in full. + +The run on fb85c8fe then failed only in the two UK lanes on one new test: the evaluation command timed +each downstream script with `/usr/bin/time -l`, a BSD flag GNU `time` rejects with exit 125, so on the +linux runners a failing stub could not surface its own exit code. Replaced by an in-process rusage shim +(the child script runs in a child interpreter that reports its own peak resident set in bytes on exit; +wall time measured by the caller; exit code the script's own), commit e8f7c6f2, pushed with the +`--selection-pi-hi` knob (a6b1e0ca) and the by-name refusal (b1d206d6); CI run 34239851890. + +## Code landed on the branch before the runs + +- **C1 (d4043ec7)** — a size run keeps the dense joint solve it was cut from: `UKRowwiseDoctrineSolve.dense_reference` (weights, initial weights, local and national diagnostics, losses, past-cap censuses; the evidence labelling moved into `_doctrine_solve_evidence` and runs for both results), written as `dense_reference_diagnostics.csv` (every target's dense estimate with a `grain` column) and summarised under `solve.dataset_size.dense_reference`; and the selection itself as `dataset_size_selection.csv` (`pool_row_index, household_id, clone_index, design_weight, inclusion_probability, certainty, ht_baseline_weight, refit_weight`). Both are listed under `outputs` with digests; dense runs are unchanged. The dense reference is byte-identical to a standalone dense run on the same inputs, seed and epochs, so the size-only delta needs no second full-pool solve. +- **C2 (d4043ec7)** — `--selection-seed` (requires `--dataset-households`, defaults to `--seed`) seeds only the informed L0 search, the exact-count draw and the refit, threaded through the holdout as well; recorded as `parameters.selection_seed` and in the size receipt's `seed`. `--seed` still governs the ladder clone assignment and the dense solve, so two selections compare on one pool and one dense reference. +- **C3/C4 (251e67d4)** — evaluation library `uk_runtime/size_evaluation.py` (`load_run`, `run_acceptance`, `fit_tables`, `weight_tables`, `area_support_tables`, `gate_table`, `paired_targets`, `dense_reference_deltas`, `frozen_vs_recomputed`, `footprint`, `summarize` with `PRE_REGISTERED_OUTCOMES_V1`) and the one command `tools/evaluate_uk_dataset_size.py` (steps `00-run-acceptance`, `10-dense-reference`, `20-vs-reference/