Total CBE for all 50 States do not match total CBE for US

[alaitzaritza]

I calculated CBE for all 50 states using the available models from 2012-2019. When I added all 50 states together I found a slight discrepancy between the total for all 50 states and the total given for the US in the report (https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_Report.cfm?dirEntryId=363340&Lab=CESER). In every year the total of the 50 states was slightly higher than the number given for the entire US by around 100 MMT. For example the number cited in the report for the whole US in 2019 was 7,550.1 MMT while the number obtained from adding all 50 states is 7668.0 MMT.

Along the same lines, I am wondering about Washington D.C. Apologies if I missed this in the report, but are the residents of D.C. included included in the model somehow?

[bl-young]

Can you clarify which models you used for your test? Was it v1.1 models? And if so, did you use the specific provided models for VT, ME, and NY (v1.1-GHGc)?

In stateior, we do build two region model objects for Washington DC, but we do not build an EEIO model for DC. DC would be included in the US total.

[alaitzaritza]

Got it! In that case I guess I would expect the total for all 50 states to be slightly lower than the US total, since the total for the 50 states would not include DC but the total for the US would.

[alaitzaritza]

I built and saved the non-custom GHG models for VT, ME, and NY. The results for these models appear similar but not identical to the custom results. The total for all 50 states remains around 100 MMT higher than the US as reported in (https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_Report.cfm?dirEntryId=363340&Lab=CESER) for all years I checked (2012-2019). I would expect the total for all 50 states to be slightly lower than the total the US due to DC being excluded from the former but not the latter.

[WesIngwersen]

Sorry - missed that piece. No DC should be represented in the RoUS portion of all models. It would not be in the MD or VA models as part of the State of Interest (SoI). I can't recall at this moment if there is a technical limitation for why we can't create a DC specific model, or if we just chose not to.

Confirming there are 52 regions. text from Li et al. 2023:
"Since our goal is to establish 51 state models (the 50 states and DC) that are coherent
with the national IO tables, the sum of flows between an SoI and its corresponding
RoUS must equal the national totals. Therefore, all transactions in the national territory
must be allocated to the regions. However, for some economic indicators, the sum of the
51 regional values is close but not exactly equal to the national total. The cause of this
divergence is the overseas adjustment.1 To keep the consistency between state and
national flows, a 52nd region is created, defined as Overseas, that is only used for
closing the balance with the transactions not allocated to one of the 51 geographic
regions."

DC is small, very unique, and the StateIO and GHG data sources don't cover it as well. We did not feel that our model would accurately portray it and therefore we haven't built a separate model for it.

[WesIngwersen]

I built and saved the non-custom GHG models for VT, ME, and NY. The results for these models appear similar but not identical to the custom results. The total for all 50 states remains around 100 MMT higher than the US as reported in (https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_Report.cfm?dirEntryId=363340&Lab=CESER) for all years I checked (2012-2019). I would expect the total for all 50 states to be slightly lower than the total the US due to DC being excluded from the former but not the latter.

You are correct this should not be the case. This is helpful data to have. I suspect this is related to issue #1 where their might be some slight over-estimate of consumption of a state's own output.