feat(credit): add rating-migration-watch workflow

README.md

@@ -85,7 +85,7 @@ README.zh-CN.md
 | [`llmquant-crypto`](skills/llmquant-crypto) | Crypto regime, token research, perpetual funding, basis, and leverage monitoring. | Crypto market regime, token research, perp funding monitor |
 | [`llmquant-prediction-markets`](skills/llmquant-prediction-markets) | Event odds, prediction-market contracts, probability gaps, and cross-venue arb review. | Event probability brief, arb watch, probability vs options pricing |
 | [`llmquant-macro`](skills/llmquant-macro) | Macro dashboards, central-bank previews, liquidity, growth, inflation, and portfolio impact. | Global macro dashboard, Fed policy preview, macro-to-portfolio impact |
-| [`llmquant-credit`](skills/llmquant-credit) | Issuer credit, spread regimes, high-yield stress, refinancing, and default risk. | Issuer credit risk review, credit spread regime, high-yield stress monitor |
+| [`llmquant-credit`](skills/llmquant-credit) | Issuer credit, spread regimes, high-yield stress, rating migration, refinancing, and default risk. | Issuer credit risk review, credit spread regime, high-yield stress monitor, rating migration watch |
 | [`llmquant-rates-fx`](skills/llmquant-rates-fx) | Rates, yield curves, central-bank divergence, FX carry, and currency risk. | Yield curve trade lens, central-bank divergence, FX carry dashboard |
 | [`llmquant-events`](skills/llmquant-events) | Earnings, M&A, regulatory, legal, policy, and catalyst event monitoring. | Earnings event brief, M&A event tracker, regulatory risk monitor |
 | [`llmquant-portfolio`](skills/llmquant-portfolio) | Company profiles, thesis tracking, watchlists, alerts, and themes. | Company profile, thesis tracker, theme research, watchlist monitor, alert manager |

README.zh-CN.md

@@ -82,7 +82,7 @@ README.zh-CN.md
 | [`llmquant-crypto`](skills/llmquant-crypto) | 加密市场行情、代币研究、永续资金费率、基差和杠杆监控。 | Crypto market regime、token research、perp funding monitor |
 | [`llmquant-prediction-markets`](skills/llmquant-prediction-markets) | 事件赔率、预测市场合约、概率差和跨平台套利检查。 | Event probability brief、arb watch、probability vs options pricing |
 | [`llmquant-macro`](skills/llmquant-macro) | 宏观面板、央行会议前瞻、流动性、增长、通胀和组合影响。 | Global macro dashboard、Fed policy preview、macro-to-portfolio impact |
-| [`llmquant-credit`](skills/llmquant-credit) | 发行人信用、利差行情、高收益压力、再融资和违约风险。 | Issuer credit risk review、credit spread regime、high-yield stress monitor |
+| [`llmquant-credit`](skills/llmquant-credit) | 发行人信用、利差行情、高收益压力、评级迁移、再融资和违约风险。 | Issuer credit risk review、credit spread regime、high-yield stress monitor、rating migration watch |
 | [`llmquant-rates-fx`](skills/llmquant-rates-fx) | 利率、收益率曲线、央行分化、外汇 carry 和汇率风险。 | Yield curve trade lens、central-bank divergence、FX carry dashboard |
 | [`llmquant-events`](skills/llmquant-events) | 财报、并购、监管、法律、政策和催化剂事件跟踪。 | Earnings event brief、M&A event tracker、regulatory risk monitor |
 | [`llmquant-portfolio`](skills/llmquant-portfolio) | 公司档案、观点跟踪、关注列表、提醒和主题研究。 | Company profile、thesis tracker、theme research、watchlist monitor、alert manager |

skills/llmquant-credit/SKILL.md

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
 ---
 name: llmquant-credit
-description: Router skill for LLMQuant credit workflows. Use when the user needs issuer credit review, spread regime analysis, high-yield stress monitoring, default risk, debt maturity, or covenant context.
+description: Router skill for LLMQuant credit workflows. Use when the user needs issuer credit review, spread regime analysis, high-yield stress monitoring, rating migration, default risk, debt maturity, or covenant context.
 input_data_source: LLMQuant Data
 category: credit
 ---
@@ -24,6 +24,7 @@ This category routes credit research workflows for issuer risk, spread regimes,
 | Review an issuer's balance-sheet, cash-flow, maturity, and covenant credit risk. | [`workflows/issuer-credit-risk-review.md`](workflows/issuer-credit-risk-review.md) |
 | Diagnose credit-spread regime, risk appetite, and sector pressure. | [`workflows/credit-spread-regime.md`](workflows/credit-spread-regime.md) |
 | Monitor high-yield stress, refinancing risk, fallen angels, and default pressure. | [`workflows/high-yield-stress-monitor.md`](workflows/high-yield-stress-monitor.md) |
+| Anticipate issuer rating upgrades, downgrades, and crossover (fallen angel / rising star) candidates. | [`workflows/rating-migration-watch.md`](workflows/rating-migration-watch.md) |
 
 ## LLMQuant Data Contract
 

skills/llmquant-credit/workflows/rating-migration-watch.md

@@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
+# Rating Migration Watch
+
+## Use When
+
+Use this workflow when the user asks whether an issuer is likely to be upgraded or downgraded, sits on positive or negative outlook, trades away from its rating cohort, or is a fallen-angel or rising-star candidate.
+
+## LLMQuant Data Needed
+
+Required:
+- rating history, current agency ratings, outlooks, watch placements, and rating action dates for the issuer.
+- issuer filings, financial statements, leverage, coverage, liquidity, and guidance trajectory across recent periods.
+- issuer bond spreads or CDS plus spread levels of same-rating and adjacent-rating peers for market-implied comparison.
+- sector trends, rates, macro context, and refinancing, M&A, or buyback events that move rating trajectories.
+
+Freshness:
+- Report rating action dates, outlook dates, filing periods, spread observation dates, and stale-data notices.
+
+Fallback:
+- If agency outlooks or peer-cohort spreads are unavailable, ground the view in the fundamentals trajectory only and name the missing rating-market inputs.
+
+## Workflow
+
+1. Identify the issuer, current ratings across agencies, outlooks or watch status, and the horizon of interest.
+2. Build the fundamentals trajectory: leverage, coverage, liquidity, and cash-flow direction over recent periods versus rating-cohort norms.
+3. Compare market-implied signals: issuer spreads and CDS versus same-rating and adjacent-rating peer cohorts.
+4. Review migration catalysts: refinancing, M&A, guidance changes, shareholder-return policy, sector stress, and covenant triggers.
+5. Classify migration risk as upgrade candidate, stable, downgrade watch, or crossover candidate (fallen angel / rising star) with evidence.
+
+## Output Format
+
+1. **Migration View**
+2. **Current Ratings / Outlooks**
+3. **Fundamentals Trajectory**
+4. **Market-Implied Signal**
+5. **Catalysts And Triggers**
+6. **Data Used**
+
+## Guardrails
+
+- Do not present a migration view as an agency rating action or predict its timing.
+- Do not claim a market-implied rating gap without peer-cohort spread data.
+- Do not extrapolate the fundamentals trajectory from a single reporting period.