Add Belgium pension, GRAPA, and source handoffs

BELGIUM_PUBLIC_FACTS_REPORT.md

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+# Belgium public facts wave final report
+
+## Outcome
+
+The locally reviewable wave is complete at source/parser implementation head
+`fe3fd81670f106c5509847312ba61dd4c4742626`, based on `origin/main`
+`10597ae602767b046ca1b294949e5df7bfd3b367` on branch
+`be-public-calibration-facts`. The commit containing this report necessarily
+follows that reviewed implementation head; its exact hash is reported in the
+final handoff response because a Git commit cannot contain its own hash.
+
+The existing `sfpd-legal-pension-caseload-2025` selector now builds four direct
+publisher facts from the official SFPD February 2025 monthly-statistics PDF.
+The intermediary handwritten CSV was removed. No regional child-benefit or
+HFCS value was transcribed or represented by a placeholder fact: six blocked
+official artifacts have deterministic offline-fetch instructions and five
+separate follow-up issue bodies.
+
+Chronicle remains facts-only. This wave adds no aging, period alignment,
+cross-source reconciliation, imputation, take-up mechanics, support-aware
+activation, target profile, model binding, solver construction,
+PolicyEngine-computed value, or Axiom concept.
+
+## SFPD package and source pin
+
+Artifact:
+
+- publisher: Service fédéral des Pensions (SFPD);
+- URL: `https://www.sfpd.fgov.be/files/3432/fr_stat_2502.pdf`;
+- filename: `fr_stat_2502.pdf`;
+- SHA-256:
+  `0d6173e71a0e9c2cd220cd024a5b5fecbb6ca79f8b791cbd2b3368e7f8412106`;
+- size: 2,319,705 bytes;
+- vintage: `monthly_social_benefits_2025_02`;
+- parser: `pdf_text_numbers`, preserving 13,644 full-document cells.
+
+| Fact | Exact publisher period | Source cell / number text | Value |
+|---|---|---|---:|
+| Employee and/or self-employed legal-pension beneficiaries | Snapshot at 2025-02-01 | Table 2.2 `E881` / `D881` `2.435.457` | 2,435,457 |
+| Employee and/or self-employed legal-pension monthly expenditure | February 2025 | Table 2.2 `E878` / `D878` `3.759.582.728,06` | EUR 3,759,582,728.06 |
+| GRAPA beneficiaries | February 2025 | Table 2.4.1 `E1756` / `D1756` `117.650` | 117,650 |
+| GRAPA monthly expenditure | February 2025 | Table 2.4.1 `E1757` / `D1757` `86.398.449,47` | EUR 86,398,449.47 |
+
+Every fact has `assertion: observation`, `provenance_class: administrative`,
+country geography `BE` / `current`, exact URL/hash/size/vintage provenance,
+and source-cell keys. Page/line/number/table-title guards bind table 2.2 to
+printed page 22 and table 2.4.1 to printed page 36. The GRAPA count uses a
+declared `value_scale: 1000` solely to restore SFPD's single-dot grouped integer
+from the parser's backward-compatible decimal representation.
+
+The pension population is deliberately narrowed to the employee and/or
+self-employed regimes in table 2.2; it is not labelled as an all-regime total
+and does not include a civil-servant column. Its published expenditure total
+includes the table's pension-plus-bonus, other pension-bonus, and well-being
+bonus components; Chronicle preserves that publisher total without
+reclassification.
+
+The manifest's R2 metadata reuses the content-addressed object path first
+recorded for the same PDF on the inspected unmerged GRAPA branch. An
+authenticated, read-only download from the `ledger-raw` bucket returned
+2,319,705 bytes with SHA-256
+`0d6173e71a0e9c2cd220cd024a5b5fecbb6ca79f8b791cbd2b3368e7f8412106`,
+exactly matching the tracked publisher PDF. No object was uploaded, replaced,
+or otherwise mutated during verification.
+
+## Original issue-69 selector audit
+
+Issue 69 is open. The six original selectors all remain registered and unique
+on current main and resolve 587 valid facts in total. PR 207 supplied geography
+and offline-fetch authoring prerequisites; it did not supply these fact
+packages.
+
+| Alias | Selector `(source, geography, measure, period)` | Facts | Geography vintage |
+|---|---|---:|---|
+| `statbel-population-structure-2026` | `statbel_population_structure`, `nuts1`, `people`, 2026 | 18 | `NUTS_2024` |
+| `statbel-fiscal-income-2023-nis-2025` | `statbel_fiscal_income`, `commune`, `belgium_pit_taxable_income`, 2023 | 565 | `NIS_2025` |
+| `spf-finances-pit-2023` | `spf_finances_pit`, `country`, `belgium_pit_federal_and_local_tax_before_withholding`, 2023 | 1 | `current` |
+| `onss-contributions-2024` | `onss_contributions`, `country`, `belgium_worker_article_17_uncapped_component_contribution`, 2024 | 1 | `current` |
+| `onem-rva-unemployment-2024` | `onem_rva_unemployment`, `country`, `receives_unemployment_benefit`, 2024 | 1 | `current` |
+| `nbb-national-accounts-household-disposable-income-2024` | `nbb_national_accounts`, `country`, `household_disposable_income`, 2024 | 1 | `current` |
+
+Current artifact pins behind those selectors:
+
+| Alias | Filename | SHA-256 | Bytes |
+|---|---|---|---:|
+| `statbel-population-structure-2026` | `statbel_population_structure_nuts1_2026.csv` | `b8456b6a7dfd71caf50184ded4f270206f3b36ae188392ade8c4375aad1ecd52` | 5,210 |
+| `statbel-fiscal-income-2023-nis-2025` | `statbel_fiscal_income_commune_2023_nis_2025.csv` | `732bb3945d080c06bba2609bd55d24af0f12859840d6f6b7c3c85de8f93eed75` | 101,316 |
+| `spf-finances-pit-2023` | `spf_finances_pit_country_2023.csv` | `7651aaf315f51b78d7fdbe162d6e346cc254793df02833d114c0ca5b1acf3957` | 287 |
+| `onss-contributions-2024` | `onss_worker_contributions_2024.csv` | `7fcf5d07c717bcbbd18c2deddc4d7706155f7e4ffcc07161163eae3589ae1958` | 341 |
+| `onem-rva-unemployment-2024` | `onem_rva_unemployment_2024.csv` | `b0b42bc0e0e5d449108290be3b235c4736f5e160a817ea5bf32edbc4779c62f7` | 687 |
+| `nbb-national-accounts-household-disposable-income-2024` | `nbb_household_disposable_income_2024.csv` | `72067b13a0ae3d85cd10650bfb152aa3228657e12255c32175e11d06eee28bbe` | 292 |
+
+All six `validate-package` commands returned zero errors and warnings. This is
+a resolution audit; it does not claim that every existing curated artifact has
+the stronger direct-publisher-byte fidelity added to SFPD in this wave.
+
+## Unresolved official sources
+
+`FETCH-MANIFEST-BELGIUM-PUBLIC-FACTS.json` validates under
+`ledger.offline_fetch_manifest.v1` with required discovery notes and six
+artifacts:
+
+1. Opgroeien native Groeipakket caseload export;
+2. Opgroeien native Groeipakket expenditure export;
+3. official AVIQ 2021 annual-report PDF;
+4. official Iriscare 2024 annual-report PDF;
+5. raw official Ostbelgien Statistik family-allowance HTML/endpoint response;
+6. official ECB HFCS Wave 2023 statistical-tables ZIP, version 5.0 / June 2026.
+
+Each instruction requires unchanged native publisher bytes, exact filters and
+period/scope/unit labels, SHA-256, byte size, content-addressed storage, and a
+stop when native data are unavailable or ambiguous. No browser card,
+screenshot, OCR output, search snippet, accessibility text, or manual
+transcription is permitted.
+
+Ready-to-file issue bodies are committed at:
+
+- `docs/issue-drafts/belgium-opgroeien-native-exports.md`;
+- `docs/issue-drafts/belgium-aviq-family-allowances.md`;
+- `docs/issue-drafts/belgium-iriscare-family-allowances.md`;
+- `docs/issue-drafts/belgium-ostbelgien-family-allowances.md`;
+- `docs/issue-drafts/belgium-ecb-hfcs-wave-2023.md`.
+
+## Deterministic validation evidence
+
+- SFPD `validate-package`: PASS, four record sets, four rows, four measures,
+  four source records, zero errors/warnings.
+- SFPD `build-suite`: PASS, 13,644 source cells, four facts, 100% lineage, zero
+  agent-acceptance errors; source-cell and raw-fact reports valid.
+- Package-specific `build-bundle`: PASS, four facts, no duplicate keys or
+  warnings.
+- Facts-only consumer artifact build/load: PASS, four schema-v2 rows, all with
+  source-cell lineage.
+- The European number format is source-scoped to the SFPD package. The default
+  parser remains byte-for-byte compatible at the token/scalar boundary for the
+  eight existing `pdf_text_numbers` packages.
+- Six original issue-69 package validators: PASS (18 + 565 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1
+  source records).
+- Parser/SFPD and all five packages exposed by the first CI run: 27 passed.
+- Focused SFPD and Belgium package tests: 3 passed; the current Belgium
+  selector uniqueness test separately passed.
+- `tests/test_chronicle_facts_only.py` plus
+  `tests/test_chronicle_consumer.py`: 33 passed.
+- Full 151-package merged-bundle contract: PASS in 14m11s, with 171,855
+  facts, 43 sources, 146 source tables, zero aggregate duplicate keys, and the
+  one pre-existing semantic-duplicate warning.
+- `ruff check .`: PASS.
+- `git diff --check origin/main`: PASS.
+
+The first CI run exposed that the initial implementation had broadened the
+shared number grammar and shifted rows in existing Welsh CTR, Medicare, and
+LIHEAP packages. The final implementation restores the original default
+grammar and selects the European grammar explicitly from the SFPD artifact.
+All five directly exposed package regressions pass locally. The first complete
+151-package run then exposed only stale bundle goldens caused by the four SFPD
+facts moving from calendar-year to February 2025 and the two expenditure facts
+being classified as government rather than person. After updating those exact
+period and entity histograms, the complete merged-bundle test passed. No fact
+value, source selector, or package semantic changed in the golden correction.
+
+Required judge evidence:
+
+- `ledger-source-fidelity`: **PASS**, no blocking fidelity finding;
+- `ledger-boundary`: **PASS**, no facts-only boundary blocker.
+
+## Governance and external blockers
+
+The literal `ledger-source-ingestor.allowed_paths` globs omit paths the user
+explicitly required for this task: root `PROGRESS.md`, root offline handoff,
+`db/data/**` publisher artifacts/manifests, issue drafts, and the pre-existing
+`tests/test_belgium_targets.py`. The work makes no contract, schema, core,
+geography transform, model, or consumer-owned change, but strict path
+enforcement requires maintainer acceptance or a registry correction before
+merge.
+
+The branch is published as draft PR #213, and the five blocked-source handoffs
+are filed as issues #214--#218. Nothing is merged. The final head must remain
+draft until final-head CI, the path-registry decision, and a renewed exact-head
+Fable review are complete.
+
+The tracked PR body references open issue 69 without closing it and must be
+republished and verified with the final parser-correction head.
+
+## Actual commit messages through the reviewed implementation head
+
+1. `f5296028ed62722d199af4a88d07e8f5dd439e3c` — `Start Belgium public facts progress log`
+2. `9c2ee9eb0d63309da03f580a7425eba491d32445` — `Track Belgium public facts wave at repository root`
+3. `6fd6b91b9d3df9f07873fd917f18eb3979a657d9` — `Parse European-formatted publisher document numbers`
+4. `339717e108242e5c157df1164f8a2ba29bc76cd3` — `Back SFPD pension and GRAPA facts with publisher PDF`
+5. `a8b5cf46c6465e84e0e57f717049482a289e0667` — `Add offline handoffs for blocked Belgium sources`
+6. `9abffbf830779840660e7ebe3b2dc218a7a92dc8` — `Draft follow-up issues for blocked Belgium facts`
+7. `6d3694dfa03626625a1af9f802469d40f19d14b1` — `Normalize Belgium issue draft endings`
+8. `94a298adf9909edfd15453f387a23b4aeec83125` — `Record Belgium validation and bundle coverage`
+9. `206ebfa38bdc65ed4d89f416cf3cbf78eada81dd` — `Prepare Belgium public facts draft PR`
+10. `ea809d084ed4913d41f9c629b41fe85cb7e23e46` — `Finalize Belgium public facts report`
+11. `fe3fd81670f106c5509847312ba61dd4c4742626` — `Scope European number parsing to SFPD`