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Replace the extensions list with a model horizon map #194

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Expand Down Expand Up @@ -219,38 +219,68 @@ <h2>How the models connect.</h2>
<h2>Six models, six different questions.</h2>
<p class="section-intro">Pick by the question you have, not by the model you know. Each line is what that model is for, and what its evidence does and does not support.</p>
</div>
<ol class="xt-list" aria-label="What each macro model adds, and the evidence for it">
<li class="xt-row">
<span class="xt-id"><a class="mono" href="/obr">obr-macro</a><span class="xt-tag">anchored replication</span></span>
<p class="xt-what">For scoring a UK reform with its knock-on effects on GDP, not just its cost.</p>
<p class="xt-proof">Tracks the March 2026 EFO to <strong>0.15% GDP MAPE</strong> with the anchors held; free-running, <strong>4.48%</strong>.</p>
</li>
<li class="xt-row">
<span class="xt-id"><a class="mono" href="/svar">boe-svar</a><span class="xt-tag">forecast evaluation</span></span>
<p class="xt-what">For reading what has been driving UK GDP and inflation, and what comes next.</p>
<p class="xt-proof">Replicates the paper&rsquo;s GDP decomposition (<strong>37.4% vs ~40%</strong>), <strong>8pp short on CPI</strong>. Against a drifting random walk, <strong>no forecast skill survives</strong> the 64 tests run.</p>
</li>
<li class="xt-row">
<span class="xt-id"><a class="mono" href="/frb-us">frb-us</a><span class="xt-tag">software replication</span></span>
<p class="xt-what">For tracing how the US economy responds to a rate or spending shock.</p>
<p class="xt-proof">Matches the Fed&rsquo;s own pyfrbus inside its two releases&rsquo; disagreement (<strong>~1&times;10⁻⁸</strong>); <strong>no predictive claim</strong>.</p>
</li>
<li class="xt-row">
<span class="xt-id"><a class="mono" href="/us-hank">us-hank</a><span class="xt-tag">published replication</span></span>
<p class="xt-what">For seeing which US households absorb a shock, by wealth.</p>
<p class="xt-proof">Solves Auclert et al. (2021) to four decimals &mdash; the headline targets are <strong>inputs, not results</strong>.</p>
</li>
<li class="xt-row">
<span class="xt-id"><a class="mono" href="/olg">psl-og</a><span class="xt-tag xt-tag-warn">calibration only</span></span>
<p class="xt-what">For the decades-long effects on work, saving and the capital stock.</p>
<p class="xt-proof">+1pp on the basic rate: GDP <strong>&minus;£5.0bn (&minus;0.14%)</strong>, revenue <strong>+0.29pp of GDP</strong> by 2030. Targets met by construction; <strong>no independent outcome benchmark exists</strong>.</p>
</li>
<li class="xt-row">
<span class="xt-id"><a class="mono" href="/define">define-uk</a><span class="xt-tag xt-tag-warn">partial replication</span></span>
<p class="xt-what">For UK climate-policy scenarios: emissions, energy, green investment.</p>
<p class="xt-proof">Baseline replicates the manual; scenarios are design-gated and paper-anchored. <strong>Deltas only, never levels.</strong></p>
</li>
</ol>
<figure class="mm-figure">
<svg class="model-map" viewBox="0 0 940 470" role="img" aria-labelledby="mm-t mm-d">
<title id="mm-t">Which model answers which question, by horizon and country</title>
<desc id="mm-d">A map of the six macro models on a shared time axis running from the recent past through coming quarters and three to five years out to decades. The UK lane holds boe-svar at the recent past for what is driving the economy now, obr-macro at three to five years for scoring a UK reform, and psl-og and define-uk at decades for long-run effects and climate scenarios. The US lane holds frb-us and us-hank in coming quarters, for shock response and for which households absorb a shock by wealth. Models drawn with a solid outline are checked against an external published anchor; psl-og and define-uk are drawn dashed because no independent outcome benchmark exists for them.</desc>
<text class="mm-zone" x="145" y="452" text-anchor="middle">recent past → now</text>
<rect class="mm-band" x="250" y="56" width="220" height="374"/>
<text class="mm-zone" x="360" y="452" text-anchor="middle">coming quarters</text>
<line class="mm-div" x1="250" y1="56" x2="250" y2="430"/>
<text class="mm-zone" x="575" y="452" text-anchor="middle">3–5 years</text>
<line class="mm-div" x1="470" y1="56" x2="470" y2="430"/>
<rect class="mm-band" x="680" y="56" width="210" height="374"/>
<text class="mm-zone" x="785" y="452" text-anchor="middle">decades</text>
<line class="mm-div" x1="680" y1="56" x2="680" y2="430"/>
<line class="mm-axis" x1="40" y1="430" x2="890" y2="430"/>
<text class="mm-lane" x="40" y="46">UK</text>
<line class="mm-lanediv" x1="40" y1="240" x2="890" y2="240"/>
<text class="mm-lane" x="40" y="266">US</text>
<a href="/svar">
<rect class="mm-pill" x="60" y="97" width="176" height="62" rx="10"/>
<text class="mm-id" x="148" y="122" text-anchor="middle">boe-svar</text>
<text class="mm-what" x="148" y="144" text-anchor="middle">what is driving it now</text>
</a>
<a href="/obr">
<rect class="mm-pill" x="490" y="97" width="176" height="62" rx="10"/>
<text class="mm-id" x="578" y="122" text-anchor="middle">obr-macro</text>
<text class="mm-what" x="578" y="144" text-anchor="middle">score a UK reform</text>
</a>
<a href="/olg">
<rect class="mm-pill mm-pill-soft" x="696" y="65" width="176" height="62" rx="10"/>
<text class="mm-id" x="784" y="90" text-anchor="middle">psl-og</text>
<text class="mm-what" x="784" y="112" text-anchor="middle">decades ahead</text>
</a>
<a href="/define">
<rect class="mm-pill mm-pill-soft" x="696" y="151" width="176" height="62" rx="10"/>
<text class="mm-id" x="784" y="176" text-anchor="middle">define-uk</text>
<text class="mm-what" x="784" y="198" text-anchor="middle">climate scenarios</text>
</a>
<a href="/frb-us">
<rect class="mm-pill" x="272" y="269" width="176" height="62" rx="10"/>
<text class="mm-id" x="360" y="294" text-anchor="middle">frb-us</text>
<text class="mm-what" x="360" y="316" text-anchor="middle">US shock response</text>
</a>
<a href="/us-hank">
<rect class="mm-pill" x="272" y="355" width="176" height="62" rx="10"/>
<text class="mm-id" x="360" y="380" text-anchor="middle">us-hank</text>
<text class="mm-what" x="360" y="402" text-anchor="middle">who absorbs it, by wealth</text>
</a>
<rect class="mm-pill mm-key" x="600" y="20" width="18" height="12" rx="3"/>
<text class="mm-legend" x="626" y="30">checked against a published anchor</text>
<rect class="mm-pill mm-pill-soft mm-key" x="600" y="38" width="18" height="12" rx="3"/>
<text class="mm-legend" x="626" y="48">no independent outcome benchmark</text>
</svg>
<figcaption>Placed by the horizon each model answers over, and split by country. A solid outline means the model is checked against an external published anchor; a dashed one means no independent outcome benchmark exists for it.</figcaption>
</figure>
<div class="vmet-notes mm-evidence">
<p class="vmet-notes-line"><span class="vmet-notes-key">obr-macro</span> <span>Tracks the March 2026 EFO to <strong>0.15% GDP MAPE</strong> with the anchors held; free-running, <strong>4.48%</strong>.</span></p>
<p class="vmet-notes-line"><span class="vmet-notes-key">boe-svar</span> <span>Replicates the paper&rsquo;s GDP decomposition (<strong>37.4% vs ~40%</strong>), <strong>8pp short on CPI</strong>. Against a drifting random walk, <strong>no forecast skill survives</strong> the 64 tests run.</span></p>
<p class="vmet-notes-line"><span class="vmet-notes-key">frb-us</span> <span>Matches the Fed&rsquo;s own pyfrbus inside its two releases&rsquo; disagreement (<strong>~1&times;10&minus;&#8312;</strong>); <strong>no predictive claim</strong>.</span></p>
<p class="vmet-notes-line"><span class="vmet-notes-key">us-hank</span> <span>Solves Auclert et al. (2021) to four decimals &mdash; the headline targets are <strong>inputs, not results</strong>.</span></p>
<p class="vmet-notes-line"><span class="vmet-notes-key">psl-og</span> <span>+1pp on the basic rate: GDP <strong>&minus;&pound;5.0bn (&minus;0.14%)</strong>, revenue <strong>+0.29pp of GDP</strong> by 2030. Targets met by construction; <strong>no independent outcome benchmark exists</strong>.</span></p>
<p class="vmet-notes-line"><span class="vmet-notes-key">define-uk</span> <span>Baseline replicates the manual; scenarios are design-gated and paper-anchored. <strong>Deltas only, never levels.</strong></span></p>
</div>
<p class="chooser-note"><a href="/models">Inspect all seven models</a>, <a href="/models#compare">compare them side by side</a>, or <a href="/models#validation">read the evidence for each</a>.</p>
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