SIPP-vs-J2J seam-reconciliation artifact (pre-C3) [recreates #214]

runs/seam_reconciliation_draft_v0.json

@@ -0,0 +1,215 @@
+{
+  "artifact": "seam_reconciliation",
+  "version": "draft_v0",
+  "status": "DRAFT - NOT RATIFIED; C3 not locked; no thresholds",
+  "issue": "192",
+  "year_label_convention": "Keys under within_wave_monthly_separation and within_wave_means are SIPP FILE years (pu2022/pu2023), not reference years; file year = reference year + 1. PR #212's artifacts use reference years, so pu2022 here pairs with #212's 2021 and pu2023 with #212's 2022.",
+  "notes": "Naming collision: the SIPP 'j2j' transition measure from #212 (~0.35% person-level direct employer change per month) and the Census J2J data source's ~4.1% monthly-equivalent main-job separation rate benchmark used here are different universes and definitions (person-level direct employer-to-employer moves vs all main-job separations in UI-covered employment); the ~10x gap is not a contradiction.",
+  "first_reported": "PolicyEngine/populace-dynamics#192 comment 4982442068 (groundwork conditioned on employed-both-months; this artifact adds the E->N leg via the person-month universe)",
+  "within_wave_monthly_separation": {
+    "2022": [
+      {
+        "month_pair": "1->2",
+        "jobs_held": 16932,
+        "jobs_kept": 16763,
+        "sep_rate": 0.01
+      },
+      {
+        "month_pair": "2->3",
+        "jobs_held": 17029,
+        "jobs_kept": 16843,
+        "sep_rate": 0.0109
+      },
+      {
+        "month_pair": "3->4",
+        "jobs_held": 17125,
+        "jobs_kept": 16884,
+        "sep_rate": 0.0141
+      },
+      {
+        "month_pair": "4->5",
+        "jobs_held": 17181,
+        "jobs_kept": 16923,
+        "sep_rate": 0.015
+      },
+      {
+        "month_pair": "5->6",
+        "jobs_held": 17317,
+        "jobs_kept": 16952,
+        "sep_rate": 0.0211
+      },
+      {
+        "month_pair": "6->7",
+        "jobs_held": 17395,
+        "jobs_kept": 17055,
+        "sep_rate": 0.0195
+      },
+      {
+        "month_pair": "7->8",
+        "jobs_held": 17385,
+        "jobs_kept": 17039,
+        "sep_rate": 0.0199
+      },
+      {
+        "month_pair": "8->9",
+        "jobs_held": 17475,
+        "jobs_kept": 17033,
+        "sep_rate": 0.0253
+      },
+      {
+        "month_pair": "9->10",
+        "jobs_held": 17466,
+        "jobs_kept": 17156,
+        "sep_rate": 0.0177
+      },
+      {
+        "month_pair": "10->11",
+        "jobs_held": 17517,
+        "jobs_kept": 17187,
+        "sep_rate": 0.0188
+      },
+      {
+        "month_pair": "11->12",
+        "jobs_held": 17541,
+        "jobs_kept": 17271,
+        "sep_rate": 0.0154
+      }
+    ],
+    "2023": [
+      {
+        "month_pair": "1->2",
+        "jobs_held": 17559,
+        "jobs_kept": 17323,
+        "sep_rate": 0.0134
+      },
+      {
+        "month_pair": "2->3",
+        "jobs_held": 17617,
+        "jobs_kept": 17370,
+        "sep_rate": 0.014
+      },
+      {
+        "month_pair": "3->4",
+        "jobs_held": 17699,
+        "jobs_kept": 17395,
+        "sep_rate": 0.0172
+      },
+      {
+        "month_pair": "4->5",
+        "jobs_held": 17677,
+        "jobs_kept": 17373,
+        "sep_rate": 0.0172
+      },
+      {
+        "month_pair": "5->6",
+        "jobs_held": 17720,
+        "jobs_kept": 17335,
+        "sep_rate": 0.0217
+      },
+      {
+        "month_pair": "6->7",
+        "jobs_held": 17737,
+        "jobs_kept": 17358,
+        "sep_rate": 0.0214
+      },
+      {
+        "month_pair": "7->8",
+        "jobs_held": 17636,
+        "jobs_kept": 17326,
+        "sep_rate": 0.0176
+      },
+      {
+        "month_pair": "8->9",
+        "jobs_held": 17758,
+        "jobs_kept": 17301,
+        "sep_rate": 0.0257
+      },
+      {
+        "month_pair": "9->10",
+        "jobs_held": 17658,
+        "jobs_kept": 17355,
+        "sep_rate": 0.0172
+      },
+      {
+        "month_pair": "10->11",
+        "jobs_held": 17663,
+        "jobs_kept": 17351,
+        "sep_rate": 0.0177
+      },
+      {
+        "month_pair": "11->12",
+        "jobs_held": 17660,
+        "jobs_kept": 17354,
+        "sep_rate": 0.0173
+      }
+    ]
+  },
+  "within_wave_means": {
+    "2022": 0.0171,
+    "2023": 0.0182
+  },
+  "across_wave_dec_to_jan": {
+    "persons_linked": 10051,
+    "jobs_held": 10828,
+    "jobs_kept": 9805,
+    "sep_rate": 0.0945
+  },
+  "j2j_national_benchmark": [
+    {
+      "year": 2021,
+      "quarter": 1,
+      "q_sep_rate": 0.1001,
+      "monthly_equivalent": 0.0346
+    },
+    {
+      "year": 2021,
+      "quarter": 2,
+      "q_sep_rate": 0.1186,
+      "monthly_equivalent": 0.0412
+    },
+    {
+      "year": 2021,
+      "quarter": 3,
+      "q_sep_rate": 0.1315,
+      "monthly_equivalent": 0.0459
+    },
+    {
+      "year": 2021,
+      "quarter": 4,
+      "q_sep_rate": 0.1269,
+      "monthly_equivalent": 0.0442
+    },
+    {
+      "year": 2022,
+      "quarter": 1,
+      "q_sep_rate": 0.1095,
+      "monthly_equivalent": 0.0379
+    },
+    {
+      "year": 2022,
+      "quarter": 2,
+      "q_sep_rate": 0.1201,
+      "monthly_equivalent": 0.0418
+    },
+    {
+      "year": 2022,
+      "quarter": 3,
+      "q_sep_rate": 0.1307,
+      "monthly_equivalent": 0.0456
+    },
+    {
+      "year": 2022,
+      "quarter": 4,
+      "q_sep_rate": 0.1162,
+      "monthly_equivalent": 0.0403
+    }
+  ],
+  "concept_deltas": [
+    "J2J counts jobs (person-employer pairs) in UI-covered non-federal employment; SIPP counts all jobs incl. self-employment per job-month held",
+    "J2J MSep is main-job separations; SIPP here counts every held job",
+    "the monthly equivalent 1-(1-q)^(1/3) treats a quarter as three independent monthly draws \u2014 an approximation",
+    "persons leaving the SIPP sample are excluded from the denominator, not counted as separations",
+    "UNVERIFIED ASSUMPTION (job-ID linkage): the 9.45% Dec->Jan seam rate assumes SIPP EJB job ids are longitudinally consistent across the pu2022->pu2023 file boundary; if ids are reassigned at wave boundaries, spurious separations inflate the seam rate, so part of the seam-vs-within-wave contrast could be a linkage artifact rather than seam recall bias. This must be checked before C3 rules on it."
+  ],
+  "proposed_ruling_note": "NOT RATIFIED: as the plan proposed ex ante, J2J is truth for rate LEVELS and SIPP for persistence STRUCTURE; phase-1 hazards estimated seam-aware (wave-frequency with within-wave interpolation). Ratification belongs to the C3 referee round."
+}