Skip to content
Merged
Show file tree
Hide file tree
Changes from all commits
Commits
File filter

Filter by extension

Filter by extension

Conversations
Failed to load comments.
Loading
Jump to
Jump to file
Failed to load files.
Loading
Diff view
Diff view
32 changes: 23 additions & 9 deletions docs/progress.md
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@

# Development progress

*Snapshot as of 2026-09-03T09:45:00Z (UTC); updated at least daily while the evidence campaign is active. The data behind this page is committed at [`docs/progress/progress.json`](progress/progress.json).*
*Snapshot as of 2026-09-04T12:20:00Z (UTC); updated at least daily while the evidence campaign is active. The data behind this page is committed at [`docs/progress/progress.json`](progress/progress.json).*

Dynamics builds Social Security earnings histories from the PSID, and the corrected covered-earnings series is only as credible as the reading of the source documentation beneath it. Before that series ships, every piece of documentation the construction relies on is independently verified by the three arms below; the design is pre-registered and ratifies only when they complete. (Internally: the evidence campaign behind Amendment 20 (two-arm evidence charter for the covered-earnings correction design), under review in PR #405, open; draft ratified through round 6.2; next step, the A4 evidence freeze, then the C20 ratification chain toward revision 22.)

Expand All @@ -17,7 +17,7 @@ The foundations below are complete and in the repository today; the campaign tra
- [A locked, pre-registered evaluation contract: gate-1 thresholds are ratified and change only through public amendment plus a fresh referee round.](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm-dynamics/blob/master/gates.yaml)
- [145 committed evidence artifacts — noise floors, gate runs, sensitivities — each pinned by reproduction tests.](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm-dynamics/tree/master/runs)
- [The covered-earnings correction design itself, advanced through adversarial referee review to registry revision 21, with Amendment 20 in the ceremony pipeline.](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm-dynamics/pull/405)
- [A public timeline-forecast ledger: 21 registered entries, every revision with its reasons on the record.](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm-dynamics/blob/master/docs/forecasts/timeline_ledger.json)
- [A public timeline-forecast ledger: 22 registered entries, every revision with its reasons on the record.](https://github.com/PolicyEngine/microcosm-dynamics/blob/master/docs/forecasts/timeline_ledger.json)

## Verification arms

Expand All @@ -27,14 +27,14 @@ The foundations below are complete and in the repository today; the campaign tra
align-items: baseline;">
<strong>Prompt-purpose census</strong>
<span style="font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;">
17,585 / 20,815 &middot; 84.5%</span>
17,888 / 20,815 &middot; 85.9%</span>
</div>
<div style="background: #e9ecef; border-radius: 6px; height: 14px;
margin: 0.35em 0;">
<div style="background: #2c6496; border-radius: 6px; height: 14px;
width: 84.5%;"></div>
width: 85.9%;"></div>
</div>
<div style="font-size: 0.9em; color: #555;">prompts adopted (contiguous R1–R17585).
<div style="font-size: 0.9em; color: #555;">prompts adopted (contiguous R1–R17888).
Establishing what each of the ~21,000 remaining items in the PSID's 1968–2023 questionnaires and codebooks is actually asking, so the model only uses variables whose meaning has been adjudicated rather than assumed. Each block runs a full pass, an independent dense audit, and a correction sweep before its entries are adopted into the governing ledger.</div>
</div>

Expand All @@ -61,12 +61,12 @@ The foundations below are complete and in the repository today; the campaign tra
align-items: baseline;">
<strong>Q5 semantic annotation</strong>
<span style="font-variant-numeric: tabular-nums;">
45 / 257 &middot; 17.5%</span>
48 / 257 &middot; 18.7%</span>
</div>
<div style="background: #e9ecef; border-radius: 6px; height: 14px;
margin: 0.35em 0;">
<div style="background: #2c6496; border-radius: 6px; height: 14px;
width: 17.5%;"></div>
width: 18.7%;"></div>
</div>
<div style="font-size: 0.9em; color: #555;">documents sealed.
Verifying which survey questions connect to which data fields, document by document across the PSID questionnaire corpus: two independent annotators per document, then a reconciliation that seals its table of record.</div>
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -125,8 +125,17 @@ The three drill-down tables below decompose each arm's progress bar row by row.
| q2007 P/KL/R + fam2009 + q2009 BC/DE (E5 block 5) | R16,730–R17,022 | 293 | adopted | 240 D / 53 SU | NOT CALIBRATED on the receipt-strict limb only (165/165 semantic, 292/293 route); one route correction; folded v1.80 | 2026-09-02 |
| q2009 G/R/P/KL (E5 block 6) | R17,023–R17,308 | 286 | adopted | 233 D / 53 SU | 97.32% sample / 98.60% full NOT CALIBRATED on family concentration; 4-row manifest adopted; folded v1.81 | 2026-09-02 |
| fam2011 + q2011 BC/DE (E5 block 7) | R17,309–R17,585 | 277 | adopted | 230 D / 47 SU (corrected) | 77.97% strict sample NOT CALIBRATED (q2011 whole-roster EHC routing family) -> regeneration sweep-r2, 277/277; folded v1.83 | 2026-09-03 |
| q2011 F/G/R/P/KL (E5 block 8; the tranche's last block) | R17,586–R17,888 | 303 | in_cycle | — | — | — |
| post-E5-tranche remainder (fam2013 onward; not yet tranched) | R17,889–R20,815 | 2,927 | pending | — | — | — |
| q2011 F/G/R/P/KL (E5 block 8; the tranche's last block) | R17,586–R17,888 | 303 | adopted | APPLY 226 / UNCOVERED 77 (corrected census) | 92.04% sample NOT CALIBRATED; closed 16-row manifest across six families adopted per the closed-manifest precedent; folded v1.84 — E5 tranche complete, contiguous R1–R17888 | 2026-09-03 |
| fam2013 complete + q2013 BCDE/G (final-tranche block 1) | R17,889–R18,236 | 348 | in_cycle | — | pass 348/348 (225,291 B) -> dense audit NOT CALIBRATED on both limbs; closed 59-row manifest, seals must regenerate; folded v1.86; regeneration sweep in flight | — |
| q2013 R/P/KL + fam2015 complete (final-tranche block 2) | R18,237–R18,526 | 290 | pending | — | — | — |
| q2015 BCDE/G/R/P (final-tranche block 3) | R18,527–R18,838 | 312 | pending | — | — | — |
| q2015 KL + q2017 complete (final-tranche block 4) | R18,839–R19,111 | 273 | pending | — | — | — |
| q2019 complete + q2021 A (final-tranche block 5) | R19,112–R19,384 | 273 | pending | — | — | — |
| q2021 BC (final-tranche block 6) | R19,385–R19,749 | 365 | pending | — | — | — |
| q2021 G (final-tranche block 7) | R19,750–R20,006 | 257 | pending | — | — | — |
| q2021 P/KL/IMMIG (final-tranche block 8) | R20,007–R20,311 | 305 | pending | — | — | — |
| q2021 ADDRPAYMENT + q2023 BC (final-tranche block 9) | R20,312–R20,618 | 307 | pending | — | — | — |
| q2023 G/P/KL (final-tranche block 10) | R20,619–R20,815 | 197 | pending | — | — | — |

### A3 classification, block by block

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -237,6 +246,9 @@ The three drill-down tables below decompose each arm's progress bar row by row.
| 1997 family questionnaire (q97.pdf) | 7,628 | RECALIBRATE (dual-serialized; lane B recovered by dual-serialization cross-recovery) | 2026-09-02 |
| 1999 family questionnaire QxQ companion (fam1999_QxQs.pdf) | 282 | RECALIBRATE (103/282 arrays diverged; all source-resolved) | 2026-09-02 |
| 1999 family questionnaire (q1999.pdf) | 8,498 | RECALIBRATE (largest table of record: 8,498 rows) | 2026-09-02 |
| 2001 family questionnaire QxQ companion (fam2001_QxQs.pdf) | 674 | RECALIBRATE (clean streak 0/2) | 2026-09-03 |
| 2001 family questionnaire (q2001.pdf) | 2,825 | RECALIBRATE (neither lane canonical; resolved under the 1992q standard) | 2026-09-03 |
| 2003 family questionnaire QxQ companion (fam2003_QxQs.pdf) | 370 | RECALIBRATE (230/370 occurrences diverged; all source-resolved) | 2026-09-03 |

## Development scorecard

Expand Down Expand Up @@ -293,6 +305,8 @@ From the pre-registered timeline ledger, entry 22 (registered 2026-09-03). Dates

## Recent milestones

- **2026-09-04** — After an overnight capacity hold, final-tranche block 1 enters its regeneration sweep and the 2003q reconciliation resumes on the one available Codex lane; a fresh orchestrator session takes over the sequencing record.
- **2026-09-03** — The E5 first tranche completes: block 8 closes on its audit's closed 16-row manifest (ledger v1.84; purpose reaches 85.94%). The final tranche R17889–R20815 is planned as the entire remainder — 2,927 ranks across eight documents from 2013 to 2023 in ten blocks (v1.85) — and its first block passes 348/348 and is audited (v1.86) with a 59-row regeneration manifest. Q5 seals 2001f, 2003f and 2001q (48/257), the latter two on Claude Opus reconciliations in 42–43 minutes against a one-to-three-hour Sol baseline.
- **2026-09-03** — E5 blocks 6–7 close (ledger v1.83; purpose reaches 84.48%) and the tranche's last block, block 8 to R17888, is in flight. Q5 seals 1999f and 1999q — the latter the campaign's largest table of record at 8,498 rows — reaching 45/257. An output-order mandate (full serialization first, no placeholders) is adopted as standing process law for large deliverables after a truncated sweep had to be re-run.
- **2026-09-02** — E5 blocks 3–5 close (block 3 CALIBRATED at 100% — the third perfect purpose block); purpose reaches 81.78%. Q5 seals 1997q after a dual-serialization cross-recovery repaired a damaged lane print without a re-run (43/257).
- **2026-09-02** — Purpose census enters the E5 era (2003–2011 questionnaires; tranche R15625–R17888 pinned) and reaches 77.53% overnight; Q5 seals 1996q and 1997f (42/257).
Expand Down
146 changes: 139 additions & 7 deletions docs/progress/detail.json
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
{
"schema_version": 1,
"as_of": "2026-09-03",
"as_of": "2026-09-04",
"description": "Row-level drill-down behind the verification arms; extracted from the campaign evidence archive and adversarially verified. Sources name the archive artifact grounding each row.",
"purpose": {
"unit": "One rank = one row of the pinned 20,815-row residual index (e8-ops/sol-ce-purpose-residual-index-v1.txt, file SHA b35519702e6f...) = one prompt occurrence keyed `psid-questionnaire-occurrence:<sha256>` — a single printed questionnaire item in a sealed official PSID questionnaire/QxQ-codebook PDF (staged under ~/PolicyEngine/psid-data/documentation/capture1), located by an exact page/character-span receipt, e.g. `q88:p4[2538,2708)#10bc6b307d41`. What is adjudicated per rank is the prompt's \"purpose\": per sol-ce-purpose-evidence-scope-report.md, purpose \"is the closed model-law classification saying which factual dimension a `field_purpose_prompt` establishes for `O_P`\" — not survey designers' motivation. Each rank is disposed either D (determined: an ordered purpose array over the closed 35-literal space, e.g. `[M]`) or SU (source-underdetermined, with a named condition such as U_ONTOLOGY, U_CONFLICT, or U_SCOPE). Example full row from sol-ce-purpose-ledger-pass-R6172-6576-report.md: \"R6176 | Q7316 | psid-questionnaire-occurrence:091095d3... | E3.CALENDAR_EXPOSURE | D | [M] | q88:p4[2538,2708)#10bc6b307d41\". Documents are the per-wave PSID instruments: f-docs are family-interview QxQ codebooks (e.g. f94 = fam1994_QxQs.pdf) and q-docs are questionnaires (e.g. q94 = q94.pdf, \"1994 Questionnaire\", per the e4-era build's source table).",
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -504,23 +504,131 @@
"rank_start": 17586,
"rank_end": 17888,
"ranks": 303,
"status": "adopted",
"dispositions": "APPLY 226 / UNCOVERED 77 (corrected census)",
"audit": "92.04% sample NOT CALIBRATED; closed 16-row manifest across six families adopted per the closed-manifest precedent; folded v1.84 — E5 tranche complete, contiguous R1–R17888",
"adopted_on": "2026-09-03",
"source": "sol-ce-purpose-audit-R17586-17888-report.md"
},
{
"document": "fam2013 complete + q2013 BCDE/G (final-tranche block 1)",
"era": "Final tranche (R17889–R20815: fam2013/q2013 through q2023; E5 through 2015, E6 from 2017)",
"rank_start": 17889,
"rank_end": 18236,
"ranks": 348,
"status": "in_cycle",
"dispositions": null,
"audit": "pass 348/348 (225,291 B) -> dense audit NOT CALIBRATED on both limbs; closed 59-row manifest, seals must regenerate; folded v1.86; regeneration sweep in flight",
"adopted_on": null,
"source": "sol-ce-purpose-audit-R17889-18236-report.md"
},
{
"document": "q2013 R/P/KL + fam2015 complete (final-tranche block 2)",
"era": "Final tranche (R17889–R20815: fam2013/q2013 through q2023; E5 through 2015, E6 from 2017)",
"rank_start": 18237,
"rank_end": 18526,
"ranks": 290,
"status": "pending",
"dispositions": null,
"audit": null,
"adopted_on": null,
"source": "board 2026-09-03 (pass dispatched 04:5x; re-dispatched 06:18 as -r2 after the reboot)"
"source": "sol-ce-purpose-ledger-e5final-build-report.md"
},
{
"document": "post-E5-tranche remainder (fam2013 onward; not yet tranched)",
"era": null,
"rank_start": 17889,
"document": "q2015 BCDE/G/R/P (final-tranche block 3)",
"era": "Final tranche (R17889–R20815: fam2013/q2013 through q2023; E5 through 2015, E6 from 2017)",
"rank_start": 18527,
"rank_end": 18838,
"ranks": 312,
"status": "pending",
"dispositions": null,
"audit": null,
"adopted_on": null,
"source": "sol-ce-purpose-ledger-e5final-build-report.md"
},
{
"document": "q2015 KL + q2017 complete (final-tranche block 4)",
"era": "Final tranche (R17889–R20815: fam2013/q2013 through q2023; E5 through 2015, E6 from 2017)",
"rank_start": 18839,
"rank_end": 19111,
"ranks": 273,
"status": "pending",
"dispositions": null,
"audit": null,
"adopted_on": null,
"source": "sol-ce-purpose-ledger-e5final-build-report.md"
},
{
"document": "q2019 complete + q2021 A (final-tranche block 5)",
"era": "Final tranche (R17889–R20815: fam2013/q2013 through q2023; E5 through 2015, E6 from 2017)",
"rank_start": 19112,
"rank_end": 19384,
"ranks": 273,
"status": "pending",
"dispositions": null,
"audit": null,
"adopted_on": null,
"source": "sol-ce-purpose-ledger-e5final-build-report.md"
},
{
"document": "q2021 BC (final-tranche block 6)",
"era": "Final tranche (R17889–R20815: fam2013/q2013 through q2023; E5 through 2015, E6 from 2017)",
"rank_start": 19385,
"rank_end": 19749,
"ranks": 365,
"status": "pending",
"dispositions": null,
"audit": null,
"adopted_on": null,
"source": "sol-ce-purpose-ledger-e5final-build-report.md"
},
{
"document": "q2021 G (final-tranche block 7)",
"era": "Final tranche (R17889–R20815: fam2013/q2013 through q2023; E5 through 2015, E6 from 2017)",
"rank_start": 19750,
"rank_end": 20006,
"ranks": 257,
"status": "pending",
"dispositions": null,
"audit": null,
"adopted_on": null,
"source": "sol-ce-purpose-ledger-e5final-build-report.md"
},
{
"document": "q2021 P/KL/IMMIG (final-tranche block 8)",
"era": "Final tranche (R17889–R20815: fam2013/q2013 through q2023; E5 through 2015, E6 from 2017)",
"rank_start": 20007,
"rank_end": 20311,
"ranks": 305,
"status": "pending",
"dispositions": null,
"audit": null,
"adopted_on": null,
"source": "sol-ce-purpose-ledger-e5final-build-report.md"
},
{
"document": "q2021 ADDRPAYMENT + q2023 BC (final-tranche block 9)",
"era": "Final tranche (R17889–R20815: fam2013/q2013 through q2023; E5 through 2015, E6 from 2017)",
"rank_start": 20312,
"rank_end": 20618,
"ranks": 307,
"status": "pending",
"dispositions": null,
"audit": null,
"adopted_on": null,
"source": "sol-ce-purpose-ledger-e5final-build-report.md"
},
{
"document": "q2023 G/P/KL (final-tranche block 10)",
"era": "Final tranche (R17889–R20815: fam2013/q2013 through q2023; E5 through 2015, E6 from 2017)",
"rank_start": 20619,
"rank_end": 20815,
"ranks": 2927,
"ranks": 197,
"status": "pending",
"dispositions": null,
"audit": null,
"adopted_on": null,
"source": "sol-ce-purpose-ledger-e5era-build-report.md (first untouched R17889)"
"source": "sol-ce-purpose-ledger-e5final-build-report.md"
}
]
},
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -1301,6 +1409,30 @@
"verdict": "RECALIBRATE (largest table of record: 8,498 rows)",
"sealed_on": "2026-09-02",
"source": "sol-ce-q5-doc-1999q-reconciled-report.md"
},
{
"doc": "document_062",
"label": "2001 family questionnaire QxQ companion (fam2001_QxQs.pdf)",
"rows_sealed": 674,
"verdict": "RECALIBRATE (clean streak 0/2)",
"sealed_on": "2026-09-03",
"source": "sol-ce-q5-doc-2001f-reconciled-report.md"
},
{
"doc": "document_063",
"label": "2001 family questionnaire (q2001.pdf)",
"rows_sealed": 2825,
"verdict": "RECALIBRATE (neither lane canonical; resolved under the 1992q standard)",
"sealed_on": "2026-09-03",
"source": "sol-ce-q5-doc-2001q-reconciled-report.md"
},
{
"doc": "document_064",
"label": "2003 family questionnaire QxQ companion (fam2003_QxQs.pdf)",
"rows_sealed": 370,
"verdict": "RECALIBRATE (230/370 occurrences diverged; all source-resolved)",
"sealed_on": "2026-09-03",
"source": "sol-ce-q5-doc-2003f-reconciled-report.md"
}
]
}
Expand Down
Loading