Add Belgium target and population-input boundary

PROGRESS.md

@@ -1,3 +1,148 @@
+# Belgium calibration, validation, and behavior-boundary contract
+
+## State
+
+Continued on 2026-08-31 on `be-benefit-participation-targets-resume` from the
+completed local handoff at `490caa69`. Live GitHub access is restored:
+authoritative Microcosm main remains `d1e3e397`, and existing #824 remains a
+draft at its reviewed head `ed6dc3d8`. Chronicle #213 now supplies the stricter
+source-faithfulness ruling that Opgroeien, Iriscare, and Ostbelgien require
+native publisher artifacts. The Belgium contract therefore carries a separate
+typed publisher-source readiness gate in addition to population construction,
+input, period, and completeness gates.
+
+Reviewed Microcosm #824 head `ed6dc3d8` remains an ancestor, and authoritative
+main `d1e3e397` is merged at `03e4d494`, bringing in reviewed #825 head
+`510e3e6c`. Exact Chronicle #212 base/head `10597ae6`/`0f75a2bb` and the live
+#213 head `fe3fd816` are recorded in the contract. Preserved `.lane-inputs/`
+remains intact and untracked.
+
+## Done
+
+- Finished the 15-row Belgium target surface, ten typed nullable person-input
+  contracts, ten one-to-one declared Chronicle record-to-input links, and a separate
+  three-row monetary inventory. GRAPA has an exact unit/scope mapping but is
+  still missing its input, period alignment, and completeness receipt; all
+  nine child mappings additionally keep scheme construction `required_missing`.
+- Corrected every ownership inversion: Microcosm owns and populates measured or
+  latent flags, PolicyEngine consumes them and owns non-legal mechanics, and
+  Axiom receives no synthetic behavior concept. Pension and ONEM now carry the
+  same explicit consumer/support direction.
+- Enforced unknown-as-null, complete-imputation readiness, exact selector/basis
+  periods, typed declared scheme source/scope/entity contracts, one-to-one mapping identity,
+  explicit missing geography bridges, recursive value-free monetary profiles,
+  and refusal of behavioral names in both input IDs and columns.
+- Enforced validation-only exclusion from calibration compilation. PIT remains
+  a blocked calibration candidate; ONSS and NBB are validation-only; EUROMOD,
+  FPB, constructed comparisons, monthly monetary snapshots, and unreviewed
+  HFCS wealth remain outside the calibration surface.
+- Regenerated the Belgium country golden only after semantic review. Its country
+  fingerprint is now `75448d958ef56404fd343ae0ba19bc047f7d4f1d739b06c0970fb4281d618772`;
+  the separately tested bundle spec identity remains
+  `935f8dedcd2d1b99abe57c1b5d990bc345f4cffbc7ab0cc8791733bde6721d14`.
+- All 548 focused country, gate, Ledger, monetary, profile, population-input,
+  and bundle cases pass. Focused Ruff and `git diff --check` pass.
+- After reconciling Chronicle #212 with #213, all 730 focused country, gate,
+  Ledger, monetary, profile, population-input, and bundle cases pass again;
+  repository Ruff, the unchanged 123-package lock, the 319-file CI grouping,
+  JSON parsing, and `git diff --check` also remain green.
+- Committed the complete semantic and reviewed-golden step as `d77ccf78`
+  (`Complete Belgium target input boundary`) without staging lane bookkeeping.
+- Verified the unchanged lock offline (123 packages), CI grouping (319 tracked
+  test files, `verification=ok`), repository Ruff, and both worktree and
+  main-to-head diff whitespace checks.
+- Passed all 1,688 runnable shared-spec CI cases with 43 expected skips and two
+  explicit deselections, plus the full calibration shard (212 passed). The two
+  deselected US parity regeneration cases fail identically on
+  `main@d1e3e397`: the local feed exposes a CBO `source_projection` while the
+  committed US reference is `observed_only`; this branch does not alter that
+  reference or assertion path.
+- A broader build-shard attempt reached 1,218 passes and 18 skips before being
+  stopped after those same two baseline failures were captured. The complete
+  shared-spec group then passed as recorded above.
+- Reconfirmed that `main@d1e3e397` and reviewed #824 head `ed6dc3d8` are both
+  ancestors; this branch is 13 commits ahead and zero behind authoritative
+  main. Live fetch, `gh pr view 824`, and the explicit
+  `git push origin HEAD:be-benefit-participation-targets` all failed only on
+  DNS resolution. No duplicate PR, force-push, readiness change, or merge was
+  attempted.
+- Wrote the complete base/head, dependency, ownership/readiness, test, blocker,
+  and frozen-review report to `.lane-inputs/OUT.md` without staging lane
+  bookkeeping.
+
+- Re-read the complete Fable v3 review and official benefit-participation law
+  audit. Confirmed that every receipt/status flag is Microcosm-populated,
+  PolicyEngine only consumes it and owns non-legal mechanics, and Axiom may see
+  only documented legal events/statuses/claims.
+- Attempted `git fetch --prune origin`; it failed because the managed shell
+  cannot resolve `github.com`. The canonical local clone has the same
+  `origin/main` (`d1e3e397`) and exact #824 branch/head, so no newer local
+  authority is available and the existing #825 merge remains the safe base.
+- Verified salvage `b89fa566` is a child of `779cf9e2` and every one of its ten
+  blobs matches the worktree. The five product files are preserved; the five
+  lane-input files remain untracked, so the salvage must not be cherry-picked
+  wholesale.
+- Made nullable boolean input storage explicit and added a separate
+  `completeness_readiness` gate. Unknown values remain null; activation requires
+  a complete-imputation receipt and proves `n_unknown=0`. Focused population
+  and country-profile tests pass, and both new test files are explicitly named
+  for the shared-spec CI group.
+- Read `AGENTS.md`, `CLAUDE.md`, `README.md`, `DESIGN.md`, and the GitNexus
+  impact-analysis workflow.
+- Inspected the stopped lane's branch, status, worktrees, remotes, refs,
+  reflog, committed history, staged and unstaged diffs, salvage refs, preserved
+  inputs, journals, and the exact reviewed diffs for PR #824 and PR #825. No
+  tracked work was discarded or overwritten.
+- Attempted the required direct `git fetch origin main`; the managed shell
+  cannot resolve `github.com`. Imported the canonical clone's already-fetched
+  `origin/main` instead, verified it is exactly `d1e3e397`, and verified merge
+  parent `510e3e6c` contains the generic monetary-target primitives.
+- Located reviewed PR #824 at exact head `ed6dc3d8`. Its two commits add a
+  GRAPA validation declaration and a generic execution blocker, but incorrectly
+  say PolicyEngine supplies receipt/behavior flags. This continuation corrects
+  the contract to Microcosm-owned measured or latent data consumed by
+  PolicyEngine.
+- Located reviewed Chronicle PR #212 at exact head `0f75a2bb`. It declares the
+  GRAPA and regional child-benefit record identities and scopes, but its
+  dashboard captures and manual transcriptions are not activation-grade where
+  the newer Chronicle #213 source audit requires native publisher artifacts.
+- Confirmed the immutable boundary: Chronicle owns publisher facts and
+  provenance; Microcosm owns population construction, calibration/validation
+  selection, measured or latent flag inputs, and their population; PolicyEngine
+  consumes those inputs and owns take-up assignment, labor response, and Axiom
+  orchestration. Axiom may receive only exact public-document concepts, never
+  synthetic take-up concepts.
+- Merged authoritative main without conflict or duplicated commits. The merge
+  preserves both exact reviewed ancestries and makes #825's value-free
+  `MonetaryTargetProfile`, exact accounting basis, prepared-measure receipt,
+  and binding refusal rules available to the Belgium package.
+- Audited every reviewed Chronicle #212 GRAPA and regional child-benefit row.
+  The exact person-unit mappings that can be declared are scheme/statistical-
+  scope mappings, never NUTS proxies: Opgroeien basic-amount children;
+  Iriscare entitled children and payment recipients; Ostbelgien paid children
+  and payment recipients; and the four Walloon child partitions. Publisher
+  family/household units remain unmapped because equivalence to a SILC
+  household is not established. Every declared person mapping must remain
+  blocked until Microcosm populates the exact measured or latent status flag.
+- Audited the broader Belgian fact catalog. PIT 2023 is exact but mismatched to
+  SILC-2023's 2022 income reference; ONEM 2024 is a monthly-average recipient
+  stock without a matching population flag or period; the merged SFPD pension
+  package labels a January snapshot as calendar-year 2025; and ONSS explicitly
+  calls its current Axiom Article-17 mapping approximate. None may silently
+  activate. NBB national accounts, Eurostat, EUROMOD, FPB/BFP, and constructed
+  comparisons are validation-only.
+- Confirmed that no reviewed Chronicle branch contains an official, pinned
+  NBB/ECB HFCS fact. The preserved object is only an offline-fetch handoff, so
+  wealth stays blocked pending a checksummed workbook ingest and exact
+  interview-period/support mapping.
+
+## Next
+
+- Verify the source-readiness changes and regenerated Belgium golden, commit,
+  normal-fast-forward the existing `be-benefit-participation-targets` branch,
+  update only draft #824, and freeze its exact head for Fable review. Never
+  open a duplicate, mark ready, merge, publish, or run a restricted build.
+
 # ACS predictor release join
 
 > **Historical note (2026-08-28).** This journal describes the

changelog.d/be-benefit-participation-targets.added.md

@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+Declare value-free Belgian calibration candidates and validation-only references, including ten typed Chronicle-to-Microcosm person-population contracts for GRAPA and regional child-benefit scheme scopes. Every new input is a nullable Microcosm-owned measured-or-latent flag consumed by PolicyEngine; native publisher artifacts for the Opgroeien, Iriscare, and Ostbelgien rows, child scheme construction, exact periods, and complete imputation remain explicitly missing and fail closed, publisher household rows remain excluded, and validation-only rows cannot enter calibration.