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Port the matched-temperature noise floor (#205) to CheXpert and MIMIC-CXR imaging solo claims #344

Description

@sebasmos

Problem

experiments/imaging/imaging_matched_temp_floor.py was built for NIH ChestX-ray14 to fix a real methodological gap: the imaging solo-susceptibility claim needs a noise floor measured under the same decoding temperature as the cued signal, not a mismatched comparison (temperature-0 cued flip vs a temperature>0 resample as the floor, or vice versa). Issue #205 ("Matched-temperature noise floor for the imaging solo claim") tracked and closed this for NIH.

Neither CheXpert nor MIMIC-CXR has this ported. Concretely:

  • CheXpert: experiments/imaging_chexpert/results/imaging_matched_temp.jsonl / imaging_matched_temp_summary.json exist as committed result files (per PR feat: chexpert replication and bugfixes (Issue #331) #337's file list), but there is no committed script under experiments/imaging_chexpert/ that generates them via the API (same missing-runner problem as the cascade/solo runners already flagged on feat: chexpert replication and bugfixes (Issue #331) #337). So even where the matched-temp result is present, its generator is not, and cannot be audited or rerun.
  • MIMIC-CXR: no matched-temp file or mention exists at all under experiments/mimic_cxr_image/.

Agastya's review on the original CheXpert redesign thread (#331) named porting imaging_matched_temp_floor.py as one of the four blocking design fixes, alongside the label-monoculture fix and the ground-truth-plant fix. The label and plant fixes have visible progress (PR #337's chexpert.py label derivation, and the #333/#338 plant fix). The matched-temperature floor has not been separately tracked and risks being lost inside the much larger #337 diff, or skipped for MIMIC entirely since #329 does not mention it.

Why this matters for the paper

Without a matched-temperature floor, a solo-susceptibility number for CheXpert or MIMIC is not directly comparable to NIH's already-corrected number (#205), which undermines the apples-to-apples claim the whole sprint (#331's milestone) exists to make. A flip rate measured against the wrong floor can look spuriously large or spuriously null depending on which direction the mismatch runs.

What "done" looks like

  • Port experiments/imaging/imaging_matched_temp_floor.py's approach to CheXpert: a committed script that measures the cued flip and the noise floor at the same decoding temperature, real Gemini API, results under experiments/imaging_chexpert/results/.
  • Same for MIMIC-CXR under experiments/mimic_cxr_image/results/.
  • Both committed scripts should be reviewable independently of feat: chexpert replication and bugfixes (Issue #331) #337's larger diff (either as their own PR, or clearly separable within it).
  • Update docs/CROSS_DATASET_COMPARISON.md (or wherever the cross-dataset solo table lives) to note which datasets' solo numbers are matched-temperature-corrected and which are not, so the comparison table cannot be misread as apples-to-apples before it actually is.

Real-data rule

This needs a real API run producing the matched cued-flip and floor numbers, not a mock/synthetic stand-in, per the project's standing rule.

Related: #205 (the original NIH fix), #331 (the redesign milestone), PR #337, PR #329, #343 (the sibling MIMIC-runner gap).

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