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Gate out-of-network reach on follower engagement RATE, not raw in-network volume #200

Description

@aunysillyme

Problem
Reaching people outside your follower network is extremely difficult for mid-size accounts.

Example account: ~30k followers, ~15k active. Average post: ~1k views, i.e. at most 6.7% of
active followers (views also include non-followers, so true follower reach is lower).

The Aug 26 cold-start change (see #82) made early Home views drive out-of-network retrieval.
That rewards follower-base size rather than how well a post landed with the people who chose
to follow the author.

Contributing mechanics (6bb4594)

Proposal

  1. Compute an in-network engagement rate per post: engagements from followers / followers who
    were served it.
  2. Once a post has been served to 30-40% of the author's active followers (4,500-6,000 for the
    example account) and its engagement rate clears a threshold, relax the OON discount for that
    post and make it eligible for Phoenix/SimClusters retrieval.
  3. Keep Phoenix prediction as is; it runs on the follower pool first, then carries into
    out-of-network ranking.

Why

  • Followers opted in, so their reaction is the most honest quality signal a post has.
  • Rate-normalizing removes the advantage of simply having a larger audience: 500 engagements
    from 5k followers says more than 800 from 185k.
  • Non-followers then see posts that arrive with proof of engagement, which gives new viewers a
    credibility signal and should improve follow conversion.

Open questions

  • Minimum follower-impression count before the rate is trusted (to avoid small-sample noise)
  • Guarding against engagement pods inflating follower rates
  • Whether "active follower" should use an existing definition in the codebase or a new one

Activity

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